Middle East Politics

[Foxbatt]

and they're still more capable than the saudis.

do you know that this was exactly what happened during the Iranian revolution? The upper class were the pilots and they only flew the aircraft. Their Weps were from the lower class and so it was the same in the army too. The Generals were from the royal family and upper class. The Colonels and below was from the working class. It was a massacre as the people who actually had to do the fighting and knew how to fight turned against the Shah.
The same with the Saudis.

 

[Giggsyking]

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Massive protest in central and southern Iraq "shia majority" against the government that is instated by the USA and UK and is the same government ironically backed by Iran. Dirty politics.

 

[2cents]

There it is:

 

[2cents]

This has been coming all along, since before Trump took office even. But still, this is some treacherous shit right here:

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[2cents]

The bigger picture is that this is one more piece of evidence indicating that the US is in withdrawal mode from the region, and has been since 2008, the odd crisis-moment aside.

 

[Kaos]

There it is:

Quelle surprise.

Anyone keeping count on how many times that is now the US has betrayed the Kurds?

Time for new strategic allies.

 

[2cents]

The Trump doctrine. Say what you want about the man, but this is what he promised and this will have many Americans nodding their heads in agreement, and would probably have many many more doing so if he wasn’t the individual delivering the message:

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[2cents]

Quelle surprise.

Anyone keeping count on how many times that is now the US has betrayed the Kurds?

Time for new strategic allies.

This guy is:

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Expect SDF envoys to be opening negotiations with Damascus and Moscow as we speak. Although they’re no more trustworthy than Washington.

 

[do.ob]

The Trump doctrine. Say what you want about the man, but this is what he promised and this will have many Americans nodding their heads in agreement, and would probably have many many more doing so if he wasn’t the individual delivering the message

Please

When it suited him he couldn't shut up about how America (in person of Obama) created ISIS, a couple of months later the great and benevolent US did everyone a huge favor by (sort of) putting out the fire they started themselves (by his own logic even) and now it's "feck you, we're 7000 miles away".

 

[2cents]

Please

When it suited him he couldn't shut up about how America (in person of Obama) created ISIS, a couple of months later the great and benevolent US did everyone a huge favor by (sort of) putting out the fire they started themselves (by his own logic even) and now it's "feck you, we're 7000 miles away".

I’m not a fan, and I don’t accept his analysis of what went down, but I don’t see much inconsistency in his approach.

 

[Mrs Smoker]

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[Relevated]

The Trump doctrine. Say what you want about the man, but this is what he promised and this will have many Americans nodding their heads in agreement, and would probably have many many more doing so if he wasn’t the individual delivering the message:

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Hmm, Do you think America would have even bothered with isis if trump was in power?

It is with the American involvement that they were destroyed after all.

 

[berbatrick]

Hmm, Do you think America would have even bothered with isis if trump was in power?

they quite literally did.

This has been coming all along, since before Trump took office even. But still, this is some treacherous shit right here:

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imagine my shock, etc

 

[RedTiger]

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"I, in my great and unmatched wisdom"

 

[utdalltheway]

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has to be a parody.

 

[nickm]

Hmm, Do you think America would have even bothered with isis if trump was in power?

It is with the American involvement that they were destroyed after all.

American involvement which began under Obama.

 

[nickm]

The Trump doctrine. Say what you want about the man, but this is what he promised and this will have many Americans nodding their heads in agreement, and would probably have many many more doing so if he wasn’t the individual delivering the message:

Where did Trump promise to throw US allies to their bitterest enemies, who incidentally want them dead? Because that’s what he’s done, and he’s done it off the cuff.

 

[2cents]

Where did Trump promise to throw US allies to their bitterest enemies, who incidentally want them dead? Because that’s what he’s done, and he’s done it off the cuff.

Since he started seriously talking about the Middle East, way back around 2010-2012, he’s made it abundantly clear that he has no interest in getting bogged downs in its wars, and is purely involved on the basis of American self-interest, which he narrowly defines as defeating ISIS (job done according to him) and “taking the oil”. Anyone who thought he felt a shred of loyalty to the Kurds is an idiot. He’s crude and impulsive, but the last two Presidents have been voted in partly on the basis of campaign promises to wind down the American presence in that region. Obama failed to do so adequately, so this is what we get. The alliance with the SDF was never going to endure, Trump or no Trump. It’s just the way he’s gone about ending it which is (justifiably) provoking anger.

 

[2cents]

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Without air power Turks will be depending heavily on their ex-FSA/jihadist militias slog it out against the SDF.

 

[berbatrick]

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Without air power Turks will be depending heavily on their ex-FSA/jihadist militias slog it out against the SDF.

does anyone have any idea what's going on? is it just trump being trump, or is there some plan here?

 

[Red Defence]

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”President Trump was definitely out-negotiated and only endorsed the troop withdraw to make it look like we are getting something—but we are not getting something," the National Security Council source told Newsweek. "The U.S. national security has entered a state of increased danger for decades to come because the president has no spine and that's the bottom line."

 

[711]

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Without air power Turks will be depending heavily on their ex-FSA/jihadist militias slog it out against the SDF.

Wouldn't it only shut down airspace if the US were prepared to shoot down Turkish aircraft, or am I missing something?

 

[2cents]

does anyone have any idea what's going on? is it just trump being trump, or is there some plan here?

Wouldn't it only shut down airspace if the US were prepared to shoot down Turkish aircraft, or am I missing something?

I’ve no idea what’s happening here, but the massive backlash to this move, including from within his own party, may prompt some walking back.

 

[maniak]

It's not as if the kurds haven't suffered enough.

 

[Nucks]

Hmm, Do you think America would have even bothered with isis if trump was in power?

It is with the American involvement that they were destroyed after all.

The US was already involved. Trump to his credit on this, only committed a few war crimes and crimes against international law when he attacked the Syrian government, against the urging of his intelligence services in at least one of the attacks. Had Hillary won, we'd probably be involved in a full scale intervention.

Also, the way Trump claims to have 100% defeated ISIS, smacks a bit of stolen valor, considering it was Syria, Russia, and other players in the region that did the vast majority of the actual heavy lifting on beating ISIS.

 

[Nucks]

does anyone have any idea what's going on? is it just trump being trump, or is there some plan here?

I mean, from my point of view, there is zero upside here. Syria is not a member of NATO. Turkey is. If Turkey calls his bluff, and puts jets in the air in this "no-fly zone", what does Trump actually do? Either he backs down, and looks like a giant tool, destroying US prestige around the world even further, or, he attacks a member of NATO, which, as you can guess, would be all kinds of hilarious if peoples lives were not at stake, not to mention quite a legal pickle.

 

[Ballache]

It's not as if the kurds haven't suffered enough.

Man, I'm part Aramean but I feel bad for Kurds. They always seem to get shafted in the end. They've been getting the short end of the stick for a good 500 years now.

 

[Kaos]

Man, I'm part Aramean but I feel bad for Kurds. They always seem to get shafted in the end. They've been getting the short end of the stick for a good 500 years now.

Speaking as a Kurd, it’s partly our fault. Driven far too much by emotion and delusional romantic fervour. We also evidently don’t learn from our mistakes. This current betrayal is yet another classic case of ‘fool me once...’. I mean you’d figure that we’d learn from the Yanks promising us support in ‘91 and even more recently with the referendum last year, but alas here we are again.

As @2cents correctly pointed out - Assad and the Russians are hardly anymore trustworthy, but cutting deals with them considering the current circumstances is probably the best course of action. The US were never going to risk upsetting their NATO ally (or Trump risking the Kashoggi scandal being slowly unveiled), Assad/Putin on the other hand couldn’t care less about those factors. It would also be in their interest not to have Turkey or their Jihadist benefactors running wild in Syria’s northern corridor.

There’s also the issue of the Kurdish leadership, particularly in Erbil being a shameless bunch of tyrannous charlatans who only care about cementing their own personal power at the expense of their people.

 

[Ballache]

Speaking as a Kurd, it’s partly our fault. Driven far too much by emotion and delusional romantic fervour. We also evidently don’t learn from our mistakes. This current betrayal is yet another classic case of ‘fool me once...’. I mean you’d figure that we’d learn from the Yanks promising us support in ‘91 and even more recently with the referendum last year, but alas here we are again.

As @2cents correctly pointed out - Assad and the Russians are hardly anymore trustworthy, but cutting deals with them considering the current circumstances is probably the best course of action. The US were never going to risk upsetting their NATO ally (or Trump risking the Kashoggi scandal being slowly unveiled), Assad/Putin on the other hand couldn’t care less about those factors. It would also be in their interest not to have Turkey or their Jihadist benefactors running wild in Syria’s northern corridor.

There’s also the issue of the Kurdish leadership, particularly in Erbil being a shameless bunch of tyrannous charlatans who only care about cementing their own personal power at the expense of their people.

Funnily enough, I said this to my Kurdish friends when the referendum was going on. They didn't like it too much

 

[2cents]

It’s remarkable how little attention is given to the fact that the Turkish military is currently occupying territory in three neighboring countries, and planning to considerably expand its operations in one of them.

 

[Red Defence]

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[langster]

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[2cents]

As @2cents correctly pointed out - Assad and the Russians are hardly anymore trustworthy, but cutting deals with them considering the current circumstances is probably the best course of action

Been reading some reports that Erdogan is coordinating with the Russians on this. If that’s the case (and of course it depends what is meant by ‘coordination’) then the SDF could end up squeezed between Erdogan and Assad with nowhere to run except Iraq. Add in the proposal to re-settle millions of predominantly Arab refugees in Rojava,* and the type of looting and displacement the Turkish-allied militias carried out in Afrin,** and we may see a massive Syrian Kurdish exodus heading in the same direction.

*(personally I doubt this will actually happen)

** (read one report this morning saying the Turkish military have warned the militias not to repeat their Adrian behavior)

 

[2cents]

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[Raulduke]

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Also

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[2cents]

ISIS attacked an SDF position in Raqqa last night:

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[KirkDuyt]

and would probably have many many more doing so if he wasn’t the individual delivering the message:

The messenger has little to do with the fact that Trump is pulling out of a shitshow that his country's invasion of Iraq helped create in a big way. Now he says, well, it's closer to Europe, so you clean up our mess.

Promising to do a shitty thing and then making good on your promise to do said shitty thing doesn't make it any less shitty.

 

[Fosu-Mens]

It’s remarkable how little attention is given to the fact that the Turkish military is currently occupying territory in three neighboring countries, and planning to considerably expand its operations in one of them.

Cyprus, Syria and Iraq?

 

[Kaos]

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Also

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So much for closing the airspace for the Turks.

Also fat chance the Turks actually take over the internment of ISIS prisoners. They’ll probably just incorporate them into their proxy group of jihadist thugs.

 

[utdalltheway]

The Turks will have the EU over a barrel with all their Isis fighters ready to be shipped back “home”.