andersj
Nick Powell Expert
When Man Utd signed Alexis Sanchez and most fans were extatic about getting him from under the nose of Man City someone sent me a tweet from a guy on Twitter voicing concern about the amount of mileage in Sanchez’ legs.
If I remember correctly (cant find his tweet) he claimed that footballers who need energy and pace often decline heavily from approx. 40 000 min and get alot more prone to injury. I did not give it that much consideration at the time, but considered it to be an interesting angle.
But when we signed Bruno Fernandes I saw another tweet from the same guy about this topic. This time more positive. His graph illustrates that Eriksen would be a player he, due to the amount of minutes, would consider a risk. I also find it interesting to see Ozil in this overview as he obviously peaked a few years ago.
Obviously there will be exceptions to the rule. Players have different natural fitness, dedication or talent (Messi and Ronaldo). We have also seen players like Giggs and Scholes change their style to adopt to a physical decline. So, no rule/guideline without exceptions.
I tried looking into when a few good players have had a steep decline. It is not a very accurate science since the start of a decline could be difficult to pinpoint. It is easier if there is a specific event in a carrier. I had a look at Torres at the time of his move to Chelsea, but he was not at more than 33-34 000 minutes or so. For Shevchenko, on the other hand, it was surprisingly accurate. He moved to Chelsea close to the 40 000 minute mark.
You could also argue that van Persie and Rooney started their decline around a similar mark (40 000 min, +- 10 %). It
will be interesting to keep an eye on Aubameyang and Willian next season. (Both are looking for a new contract btw.)
While it is not a blueprint I think it could be a useful tool for clubs used in combination with form and injuries.
Take Cavani as an example. He has played 42 000 minutes of professional football. He has been very injury prone this season and not very good either. Would it make sense to sign him at this point? In my opinion, that sounds risky considering minutes, age, form, injuries and salary demand. Certainly considering what used to be his strenghts (pace and energy among them).
If I remember correctly (cant find his tweet) he claimed that footballers who need energy and pace often decline heavily from approx. 40 000 min and get alot more prone to injury. I did not give it that much consideration at the time, but considered it to be an interesting angle.
But when we signed Bruno Fernandes I saw another tweet from the same guy about this topic. This time more positive. His graph illustrates that Eriksen would be a player he, due to the amount of minutes, would consider a risk. I also find it interesting to see Ozil in this overview as he obviously peaked a few years ago.
Obviously there will be exceptions to the rule. Players have different natural fitness, dedication or talent (Messi and Ronaldo). We have also seen players like Giggs and Scholes change their style to adopt to a physical decline. So, no rule/guideline without exceptions.
I tried looking into when a few good players have had a steep decline. It is not a very accurate science since the start of a decline could be difficult to pinpoint. It is easier if there is a specific event in a carrier. I had a look at Torres at the time of his move to Chelsea, but he was not at more than 33-34 000 minutes or so. For Shevchenko, on the other hand, it was surprisingly accurate. He moved to Chelsea close to the 40 000 minute mark.
You could also argue that van Persie and Rooney started their decline around a similar mark (40 000 min, +- 10 %). It
will be interesting to keep an eye on Aubameyang and Willian next season. (Both are looking for a new contract btw.)
While it is not a blueprint I think it could be a useful tool for clubs used in combination with form and injuries.
Take Cavani as an example. He has played 42 000 minutes of professional football. He has been very injury prone this season and not very good either. Would it make sense to sign him at this point? In my opinion, that sounds risky considering minutes, age, form, injuries and salary demand. Certainly considering what used to be his strenghts (pace and energy among them).