But you can't ignore the factor bad luck. Chelsea had plenty of it under Tuchel and still turned it around.
Chelsea appoint Thomas Tuchel
- Thread starter RashyForPM
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Empty vessels make the most noise.
Sign goal scorer = Title challenge next year ?
Well yes, but it sugggest the team is generally performing well and creates enough chances to win most games. Last season our handicap was the inability stop conceding goals. This season it's scoring goals. Hopefully Tuchel can find a balance between the two without sacrificing either one.
I don't mind running it back with the same group of attackers, but yeah we either need to a find a consistent goal scorer amongst the current group or sign one.
Will someone post an xL table ‘proving’ that Chelsea would have come second with better luck?
All these retrospective efforts to make Chelsea’s league ranking better than it was is just clutching at straws. Signing, coaching and picking strikers who are efficient in front of goal is an important part of managing a successful football team.
Which is no different to building an effective defence. The xG league table bizarrely ignores the fact that goals against are as important as goals scored. I would cringe if I saw United fans posting a table showing us top of the league in a parallel universe where our defenders or goalkeepers had made less mistakes.
Just to be clear, I wasn't posting that to say Chelsea have actually been the second best team in the league. You've misread my intentions, if that's the case. And the table doesn't show that anyway. I was just highlighting how profligate we have been this season and its clear what we need to correct next season.
We have to sign a proven goal scorer, whilst existing players might step up, too risky in case they don't. Plus Giroud and Tammy are both almost certainly going, freeing up wage and squad space.
We've already tried to sign Kane (with players in the deal Kepa, Tammy) according to reports. Chances of Spurs selling to us are pretty much zero unfortunately. Haaland won't move this summer I think. Not really sure what other options at the level of proven goal scorer in league and CL there are...?
Eh no, it doesn't. You very clearly have no idea what you're talking about.
All these expected goal stats obviously have their limitations. They show tendencies and aren't the ultimate truth but they are very valuable indicators, especially if large sets of data are considered (e. g. over a whole season).
Why I like them so much is because they really show the impqct of luck that most people seem to ignore. Luck is a very big factor in football, more sonthan in most other big sports, and usually it is ignored completely and people prefer to talk about 'mentality' or something like that. That's almost a bit religious as in 'people can't explain it so they attribute it to something intangible'.
xG stats now visualize that dynamic. Humans aren't machines, even the technically best footballer won't do a move or shot correctly 1000/1000 times but maybe 9/10. Sometimes he'll convert the chance 20 times in a row and sometimes he'll screw it up 4 out of 5 times. If it happens in games you win clearly, nobody cares but when it happens in key moments, it can cost you big time.
I watched mich of Chelsea this season because I was curious how Havertz wpuld be doing and Tuchel is one of my favourite coaches. And they played great since he took over. Patterns of play, structure, decision making, etc. - it was great and they really were unlucky a lot of times. This won't go on forever and on top of that they will only improve with a real preseason. This was really impressive stuff and that's why there's sonmuch hype surrounding Tuchel.
Ok. It incorporates xG for and against. Still a heap of steaming shite. Great defenders/goalkeepers and great strikers are the reason teams out-perform daft stats like that. Title-winning teams need strikers who are better than their peers at converting half chances and defenders/goalkeepers who can keep out what look like certain goals.
Final third decision making can improve but I expect it to seeing as there really has been very little training ground time so far under TT.
I don't mind anybody who just says xG isn't for me no interest in it, that's more than fine but the problem is most of those will instead try and shoot it down despite clearly having little to no understanding of it.
On side note, is that expected points table for the whole season? Should Fwank have been cut more slack because his attacking players couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo?
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Yes and if over a significant sample someone is constantly over or under performing then that conclusion can be drawn and factored in to how any data is interpreted.
But what you are doing is basically sticking two fingers in your ears and scraming "xG smecksG la la la la la".
You didn't know how it worked but were very quick (not for the first time) to dismiss it.
Why hasn't Tammy got a look in when goalscoring has been the issue?
All that table does is show where our limitations lie and where we have fallen short this season. No idea why that's suddenly a controversial thing to point out.
Because he's not good enough. He's limited was given chances early when Tuchel took over and he bombed every time. He also (in my opinion) has an unhealthy attitude and could very easily have dragged other players in his direction when out of the side.
Werner doesn't look good enough either. Just wondered when it's clear end product was an issue why he was persistent to use him rather than others.
Poor use of the squad?
He was quick to sulk when hooked in a couple of games, he's always had that in his locker. I can imagine he was more likely to be a bit moody in training than the type to knuckle down straight away and adopt the "okay boss i'll show you what i can do" type. He's a selfish type, nothing wrong with that but different people have different tolerance levels. i remember him sulking when we were 2-0 up in a game with 5 minutes to go because Jorginho wouldn't allow him to take a penalty. Tammy is about Tammy first and foremost.
Werner is good enough and his pace and movement causes teams problems especially in big games like against City and Madrid. The problem is he is not a no.9 and is better playing off a middle man (I don't want to say target man because it doesn't need to be John Hartson can be a Havertz) that Lampard thought he was a striker and tried to paly him as such caused many of the issues early in the season but again Lampard didn't know what to do with Havertz either, or Rudiger, or Christensen, or Jorginho, or Azpilicueta, or Alonso, see the trend?
I understand this but this special table is being used to praise Tuchel in a strange way by suggesting things beyond his control resulted in the team not finishing higher. 'bad luck' as such.
Flip this on its head. If he's such a good coach, and has done so absolutely brilliantly, why did he not recognise the issues infront of goal were holding his team back and seek to try one of his other forwards? Rather than persisting with Werner, who has been awful in front of goal, then shoehorning Havertz in as a false 9?
Anyway I think Tuchel has done okay. If he wins the CL he's done well if he doesn't he's done what was expected of him.
As a club though Chelsea haven't met expectations this season given the huge money spent in the summer and it's very much all to do next season.
It's a squad game. You use the squad.
Last year when Arsenal were getting results playing largely poorly you kept banging on about how the luck will eventually run out so why can't that work in reverse?
Hasn't shoehorned Havertz in anywhere, agains that's because of Lampard thinking he was a midfielder and people not knowing the player watching assuming that's the case. Havertz is a 10 or a false 9 or even a wide forward a la Ozil, certainly not a midfielder. he played more as a striker than anything else his last season at Leverkusen.
Tuchel is a smart guy and a great coach so far be it from me to second guess him but i'm assuming he was working on the principles of you would lose more by inserting option B in Giroud or Tammy than you would gain.
I mean if Man City were struggling for goals you wouldn't suggest inserting prime Jermain Defoe would cure the issue because he would ruin the whole dynamic of their team and play.
Saying their luck will run out is a turn of phrase. They were playing unbelievably negatively and that sort of backs to the wall defending isn’t sustainable as a long-term strategy.
I’m not a big believer in saying teams are lucky or unlucky.
Actually many top strikers underperform their xG. Cristiano is an example of this during his Madrid years. Lewandowski until recently, too. Messi used to be the only outlier. This is why I'm positive regarding Tuchel: Teams that create so much eventually come good.
Moreover since you mentioned Lampard: Stats should always be interpreted with context. Much of the praise for Tuchel stems from the fact that he really transformed the way Chelsea played. Structure, organization, etc. I didn't watch too many matches under Lampard but apparently Chelsea fans were convinced by the eye test, too.
But it is true. Football is very 'prone' to luck, it's the nature of the sport.
So what dynamic does playing with Werner over Tammy or Giroud offer which is worth more than the extra goals they would have given you?
Giroud or Abraham would have scored more than Werner this season. Utterly pointless playing Werner as the focal point against a deep lying Aston Villa defence.
Yeah this is what I don't get nor do I understand what Werner added that made him fit the system better than those two and made up for his lack of goals?
He's created the most goals in the team. Double digits in assists. His pace and the way he runs on behind constantly causes chaos, something neither Giroud or Tammy offer. It's not pointless to play a guy who fits Tuchel's system better than the alternatives. He also isn't always the focal point. When Havertz plays it's Havertz. When he doesn't, it's a more fluid, interchangeable frontline.
Ultimately Werner needs to improve his scoring rate, there’s no getting away from that, but if he doesn't, I don't think Tammy or Giroud are the answers to that problem.
I'm not sure the assist stat is all that impressive when you consider your top scorer was Jorginho with 7 pens..
Anyway wumming aside I don't get the mental gymnastics that are going on with fictional tables and "bad luck". It is what it is.
He's done okay. I'm hoping he goes above that next weekend mind don't get me wrong.
Jorginho, as crap as that sounds, is only the top scorer in the league. Werner is the top scorer in all comps with 12 goals. Also got the most assists.
I mean I've explained why I posted that table and what I wanted it highlight, which was to show where Chelsea fell short this season. No idea how that turned into something controversial.
I think it's because it's been posted in and around comments from your less astute CFC counterparts raving about TT.
So just assumed by all to be part of that conversation.
I was trying to have a different conversation entirely
Anyway, let's hope this absolute gunman comes out of hiding next season.
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Can he not come out at the weekend FFSI was trying to have a different conversation entirely
Anyway, let's hope this absolute gunman comes out of hiding next season.
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He is contractually obligated to finish this season being shit.
Nah with all that negative karma he's built up I'm expecting a double hattrick
I fancy you to win on pens.
I refuse to do this to myself. I won't allow myself to get lost in the sauce like I did in 08.
Big part of it is the space he creates. When Giroud or Tammy have played the opposition defense can step up regularly because neither is a genuine threat in behind. Both Giroud and Tammy are also poor at pressing, which has always been a point of emphasis for Tuchel.
Giroud especially contributes very little - I believe I'm right in saying that whilst he's been on the pitch we've only scored 1 goal from open play that wasn't by him.
Pace, movement, ball carrying, makes the pitch bigger and opens up space in the midfield. Tammy and Giroud are just much easier to nullify for a CB.