The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[11101]

As I am writing these posts someone just sent me this.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

Argues in favor of Moderna over Pfizer and notes decreased efficacy in July likely due to higher delta. Interesting. Don't have time to read the whole article. But will look out for discussion on this.

There are a couple of these studies coming out which suggest similar, though the difference is small. Could be due to the larger dose given in Moderna?

As a company, Moderna do nothing else but mRNA and this is their first and only product. This quote from their last earnings kind of sums them up:

Total revenue was $4.4 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2021, compared to $67 million for the same period in 2020.

They've gone from a small, loss making research house to a multi billion dollar company overnight. You'd imagine they're pretty good at mRNA but at the same time they don't have anywhere near Pfizer's expertise in scaling up production.

 

[jojojo]

Wow. Didn’t realise they were boosting everyone over 30. If that efficacy vs infection persists they could get close to herd immunity.

They'd need to vaccinate a lot more people though, not just boost the currently vaxxed. They've vaccinated around 65% of the population. More significantly on the severe disease front they've vaccinated around 90% of their over 70s. That's not enough to protect their hospitals.

I understand the desire to offer the best protection possible to those willing to be protected. But I worry it will come at the cost of more vaccine hoarding by the rich countries and it's not a great way to encourage the hesitant unvaxxed to get jabbed, which would save more lives and have a bigger impact on infection growth.

We'll know more from both Israel and the UK over the next few weeks. Which hopefully Ireland and other countries can benefit from in making their own plans.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

They'd need to vaccinate a lot more people though, not just boost the currently vaxxed. They've vaccinated around 65% of the population. More significantly on the severe disease front they've vaccinated around 90% of their over 70s. That's not enough to protect their hospitals.

I understand the desire to offer the best protection possible to those willing to be protected. But I worry it will come at the cost of more vaccine hoarding by the rich countries and it's not a great way to encourage the hesitant unvaxxed to get jabbed, which would save more lives and have a bigger impact on infection growth.

We'll know more from both Israel and the UK over the next few weeks. Which hopefully Ireland and other countries can benefit from in making their own plans.

It’s a different approach. If you can get extremely high protection vs infection in everyone vaccinated that can suppress disease to a level that protects everyone else. Which they achieved pre-delta and are presumably hoping they can do again. An approach that these early booster effectiveness results would seem to endorse.

I agree re both your points about vaccine hoarding and undermining the confidence in vaccines. But I’m sure they would argue that this approach is still easier/quicker than changing the minds of the most sceptical and/or trying to help vaccinate the whole world.

 

[jojojo]

It’s a different approach. If you can get extremely high protection vs infection in everyone vaccinated that can suppress disease to a level that protects everyone else. Which they achieved pre-delta and are presumably hoping they can do again. An approach that these early booster effectiveness results would seem to endorse.

I agree re both your points about vaccine hoarding and undermining the confidence in vaccines. But I’m sure they would argue that this approach is still easier/quicker than changing the minds of the most sceptical and/or trying to help vaccinate the whole world.

It depends on how much inter-community mixing occurs. Vaccination patterns are uneven in Israel with some orthodox communities having lower take-up but also not mingling much with the wider society. Case rates have been higher in higher income, more mobile groups in Israel - so I guess you might get a kind of mini herd created of whole groups of people.

Hospitalisation rates are high, but from what few raw statistics have been revealed (a lot of the Israel's reporting seems to be in the form of a couple of PowerPoint slides per week) overall they're only where you'd expect them to be in a country with "only" 90% of over 70s vaxxed.

There's a lot of work going on trying to see how the UK and Israel data map onto each other. Is it just that they are a month or so ahead on the waning immunity front? Or are they really just seeing different behavioural factors or chasing different outcomes. Unfortunately the answer is probably - all the above and more.

Which may mean there's no clear answer to the, do you offer boosters (if so, to who?) and does that mean that vaccine passports etc are even more of a lottery (are we now talking about 6/9/12 monthly top-ups etc).

Things that might do more harm than good when it comes to core messages about social cohesion, encouraging vaccination etc.

 

[djembatheking]

Obviously I’m no expert but it seems to be to be a zero sum game and with a finite production capacity it would make morse sense both ethically and strategically to focus on getting the rest of the world vaccinated to some degree than finessing a few extra percentage of efficacy for the richer, developed nations.

My thoughts exactly, it seems totally wrong that while we are back to living a fairly normal life that we are thinking about boosters while there are many less fortunate countries still not seen a vaccine and probably still not had Delta yet.

 

[WI_Red]

Anti-vaxx sister in law just tested positive. She’s an ER nurse and was mandated to get vaccinated. Got her first Moderna dose a few days before her positive test. I would say whatever but my little niece also just tested positive, a week after having strep throat. Two more nieces that are also not vaccinated and I can’t imagine they are not infected by now. Sent them all to school yesterday (before nieces positive test) too the insane witch. Husband is a Trumper and she “lets him decide” these types of things. Fuming right now.

 

[AllGoodNamesRGone]

Anti-vaxx sister in law just tested positive. She’s an ER nurse and was mandated to get vaccinated. Got her first Moderna dose a few days before her positive test. I would say whatever but my little niece also just tested positive, a week after having strep throat. Two more nieces that are also not vaccinated and I can’t imagine they are not infected by now. Sent them all to school yesterday (before nieces positive test) too the insane witch. Husband is a Trumper and she “lets him decide” these types of things. Fuming right now.

An ER nurse that is anti vaxx? That should be grounds to be struck off. Such a dangerous thing in such a profession.

 

[WI_Red]

An ER nurse that is anti vaxx? That should be grounds to be struck off. Such a dangerous thing in such a profession.

You would be shocked at the number that exist. The MD’s on here could probably speak more on it.

 

[Roane]

You would be shocked at the number that exist. The MD’s on here could probably speak more on it.

I was surprised to learn that nurses and care staff, here in UK, have taken a stance against being vaccinated.

One particular residential home has employs a woman I know well. She has refused to be vaccinated and the home have suggested that those who refuse will have their contracts terminated. The case has been taken up at union level.

Not sure what the outcome will be but very surprised that those on the "front line" seeing the effects of the virus are saying no to vaccines. In my opinion this is what has lead to some of your "people on the street" not getting vaccinated moreso than simply being antivaxxers.

The average person on the street is scared from what I have seen. Scared of the virus but also scared of the vaccine. Of course there is the social media element and antivaxxer propaganda but for me someone seeing say a nurse saying no to vaccine is more likely to impact on their decision. I genuinely think some folk are simply scared and to me that is understandable. Wrong but understandable.

 

[Wibble]

Any medical proffesional and related worker should be required to be fully vaccinated to everything and not just covid. It should be a requirement of employment for the safety of the patients.

 

[jojojo]

Interesting data from Bahrain where they've used 4 different vaccines - they've offered a side-by-side comparison of infection rates: unvaxxed v Sinopharm v Sputnik v Pfizer v AZ (Covishield)

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[zing]

Interesting data from Bahrain where they've used 4 different vaccines - they've offered a side-by-side comparison of infection rates: unvaxxed v Sinopharm v Sputnik v Pfizer v AZ (Covishield)

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I saw this and didn't understand the numbers. How is Covishield more efficacious than Pfizer? I thought it's been established that Pfizer is vastly superior.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I saw this and didn't understand the numbers. How is Covishield more efficacious than Pfizer? I thought it's been established that Pfizer is vastly superior.

The differences are so small/numbers so tiny it’s impossible to tell them apart based on these data. All we can say for certain is how much more effective both of them are than sinopharm (i.e. a LOT more)

 

[zing]

The differences are so small/numbers so tiny it’s impossible to tell them apart based on these data. All we can say for certain is how much more effective both of them are than sinopharm (i.e. a LOT more)

OK - slight rewording - I thought Covishield was a lot worse than Pfizer. My surprise is more at that not being the case, vs Covishield being better than Pfizer.

 

[Balljy]

OK - slight rewording - I thought Covishield was a lot worse than Pfizer. My surprise is more at that not being the case, vs Covishield being better than Pfizer.

The difference between the two is so small that it could be due to the sample size, but you're right that it shows equivalence on a decent dataset. Pfizer, was 1690,000 and AZ was approx. 74,000 so if there is an error it is likely because of the smaller sample of the AZ vaccine.

The mortality rate on those datasets will be useless though as vaccinated people are protected far beyond those sorts of numbers.

 

[Withnail]

Just did the get a vaccine, give a vaccine thing via Unicef. It's only a fiver. Seemed the right thing to do.

 

[zing]

The difference between the two is so small that it could be due to the sample size, but you're right that it shows equivalence on a decent dataset. Pfizer, was 1690,000 and AZ was approx. 74,000 so if there is an error it is likely because of the smaller sample of the AZ vaccine.

The mortality rate on those datasets will be useless though as vaccinated people are protected far beyond those sorts of numbers.

Right - I was thinking that if you plotted the difference between Pfizer and AstraZeneca as a distribution, the difference in that plot would be extremely unlikely. I haven't read the paper, so I don't know if there's a time element to it. All countries that gave Pfizer gave it much earlier than AstraZeneca due to the order of the approvals, so by the time Delta hit, Pfizer's efficacy may have been on the wane.

 

[Pexbo]

Just did the get a vaccine, give a vaccine thing via Unicef. It's only a fiver. Seemed the right thing to do.

Brilliant scheme, well done you. I wish this country had implemented this as optional from the start.

 

[jojojo]

The difference between the two is so small that it could be due to the sample size, but you're right that it shows equivalence on a decent dataset. Pfizer, was 1690,000 and AZ was approx. 74,000 so if there is an error it is likely because of the smaller sample of the AZ vaccine.

The mortality rate on those datasets will be useless though as vaccinated people are protected far beyond those sorts of numbers.

That should be 169,000, but yes, the error bars on these real world comparisons will make a difference. I wouldn't use the data for a AZ v Pfizer comparison - just as a guide indicating that both of them are showing good protection against Delta.

The Sinopharm result is more concerning - or at least might indicate that a third dose (of the same vaccine or another one) is needed to really make an impact on hospitalisations.

 

[berbatrick]

Interesting data from Bahrain where they've used 4 different vaccines - they've offered a side-by-side comparison of infection rates: unvaxxed v Sinopharm v Sputnik v Pfizer v AZ (Covishield)

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The Sputnik age split is really weird.

 

[WI_Red]

Interesting data from Bahrain where they've used 4 different vaccines - they've offered a side-by-side comparison of infection rates: unvaxxed v Sinopharm v Sputnik v Pfizer v AZ (Covishield)

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The Sputnik age split is really weird.

You didn't need to add the age split portion. Some talks at ECCMID discussed efficacy on par with Pfizer and others more on par with Sinopharm. I trust zero percent of any Sputnik claims at this point, good or bad.

 

[Wibble]

Right - I was thinking that if you plotted the difference between Pfizer and AstraZeneca as a distribution, the difference in that plot would be extremely unlikely. I haven't read the paper, so I don't know if there's a time element to it. All countries that gave Pfizer gave it much earlier than AstraZeneca due to the order of the approvals, so by the time Delta hit, Pfizer's efficacy may have been on the wane.

Australia started with AZ and is only now ramping up Pfizer. Supply rather than approval date has been the important factor for many countries so I'm sure the data to assess properly is out there.

 

[Raoul]

Sounds like Biden is looking at making boosters available at the 5 month mark after the 2nd shot, which would be terrific.

 

[Balljy]

Sounds like Biden is looking at making boosters available at the 5 month mark after the 2nd shot, which would be terrific.

Sorry, but I can't see how that's terrific. There's no science I've seen that backs that up as most vaccines are going way beyond 5 months in terms of hospitilisation and mortality rates. Giving boosters to people at 5 months is just taking vaccines away from the large parts of the world which are severely lacking in even first doses.

 

[WI_Red]

Sounds like Biden is looking at making boosters available at the 5 month mark after the 2nd shot, which would be terrific.

I’m not sure about this for the general population. For at risk populations sure. Elevated antibody levels are not a long term solution. Our future immunity is based on formation, and persistence, of memory cells and the data is muddled if boosters will have a positive/neutral/negative effect on that. The more important task in my opinion is supporting a global push for global vaccination.

 

[berbatrick]

You didn't need to add the age split portion. Some talks at ECCMID discussed efficacy on par with Pfizer and others more on par with Sinopharm. I trust zero percent of any Sputnik claims at this point, good or bad.

the data is from Bahrain.

 

[Raoul]

Sorry, but I can't see how that's terrific. There's no science I've seen that backs that up as most vaccines are going way beyond 5 months in terms of hospitilisation and mortality rates. Giving boosters to people at 5 months is just taking vaccines away from the large parts of the world which are severely lacking in even first doses.

I don’t necessarily disagree with the last bit, but imo most people don’t view this issue through the lens of what’s best for the world - they view it as what’s best for their own survival and well being, and that of those around them. Therefore if the booster is available (and assuming they’re not anti-vaxxers), they are likely to get it.

We know this because over 1 million Americans have already crossed state lines to receive unauthorized boosters.

 

[WI_Red]

the data is from Bahrain.

Doesn’t matter. The Sputnik results are all over the place, so it is hard to tell what is real. Not saying the vaccine is bad, just that between Russian propaganda and poor data organization it is hard to make a conclusion.

 

[Jippy]

They've held back 1.6m doses of Moderna in Japan on contamination fears after two healthy males in their 30s died a couple of days after their second jabs. Unclear if they died due to the vaccine though, so they're erring on the side of caution it seems.

Japan probes deaths of two people jabbed with suspended Moderna doses

Japan’s health ministry is investigating the deaths of two men in their 30s after they received Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines that were among supplies that were later suspended due to risk of contamination.

https://www.ft.com/content/cb5cb256-d103-48f8-92eb-90b61bccdde2

 

[mav_9me]

Fascinating thread. This is for those anti Vax who scream freedom/founding fathers etc.

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[Penna]

The Italian PM doesn't rule out making vaccination mandatory for everyone, which would be a big step:

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi on Thursday said the government is considering whether to make Covid vaccinations obligatory in the final push to meet its immunisation targets this month. Answering a question at a press conference, Draghi confirmed that he was in favour of mandatory vaccines and that there are plans to administer third doses of Covid-19 vaccines for some groups.

He was asked if he thinks mandatory vaccination “can be introduced” once EMA and AIFA (the European and Italian drug regulators) have given full authorization for the use of Covid-19 vaccines, and whether the government thinks third doses will be needed.

Draghi simply responded “Yes to both questions.”

Health Minister Roberto Speranza added: “The vaccination obligation in our country is already in place for healthcare personnel, so in reality it already applies to part of our society”.

He said expanding the legal obligation to vaccinate “is a possibility that remains at the disposal of our institutions, government, and Parliament,” he said. “The hypothesis is that it could be decided after the final approvals from the drug agencies, Ema and Aifa, which at the moment have given the green light for emergency use of the vaccines.”

Speranza also said that the administration of third vaccine doses “will begin in September” starting with “people who have a very fragile immune response”.

https://www.thelocal.it/20210903/th...xpand-its-covid-vaccination-campaign/?order=0

 

[Stanley Road]

The Italian PM doesn't rule out making vaccination mandatory for everyone, which would be a big step:

https://www.thelocal.it/20210903/th...xpand-its-covid-vaccination-campaign/?order=0

I wish all countries would do this excluding the medically unable

 

[Penna]

I wish all countries would do this excluding the medically unable

They seem quite determined out here. It'll be interesting to see if this actually happens, because it's a major change to go from encouragement to compulsion.

 

[FootballHQ]

Can't see it happening. If 100% vaccinated guarenteed in countries everything would be o.k and go back to Dec 2019 way of life then perhaps you'd have a chance but people would be sceptical as you can bet with the way the pandemic has generally gone a new variant beating vaccine would pop up the day after.

My personal take is most major countries are now on course for 90% by end of the year so considering it was a bit fat zero for everyone up to November 2020 it's not a bad position to be in so just got to work stuff out from that percentage and accept yes sadly people will continue to die from the virus although of course not too many.

 

[roseguy64]

So one parent took J&J today and the other had their first Pfizer dose last week. One other immediate family member left for next week now with either Pfizer or Astra.

I'll be getting my second Astra jab at the end of this month or start of next month.

 

[Charlie Foley]

60%! We did it! Who got us over the line?

 

[Balljy]

Scientists not backing Covid jabs for 12 to 15-year-olds - BBC News

The JVCI has refused to back vaccines for 12 to 15 year-olds apart from those with existing medical conditions in the UK. There are suggestions in the article that there has been government pressure for them to press ahead with vaccinations for that age group, but they have voted no and left it to the Chief Medical Officers to have the final say.

Backing the scientists is obviously the way to go on this, but it's a difficult one considering other countries have gone ahead with these age groups and the data must be looking OK?

 

[Withnail]

60%! We did it! Who got us over the line?

Is the caf ahead or behind the global average does anyone know?

 

[Balljy]

Is the caf ahead or behind the global average does anyone know?

Globally, 60% is way ahead of the average. It's around 36% worldwide, but a lot higher in developed countries (75%+)

 

[NotThatSoph]

I got my second yesterday and I had a really weird side effect. It's not really an issue, it doesn't hurt and it isn't even really uncomfortable, but my eyes have blown up to the extent that if it worsens just a little bit I can't see. It looks like an allergic reaction, but I've gotten reactions like this before several times (15-20 years ago all of them) and they were always itchy, I don't feel this at all. In my very unprofessional opinion it just looks like fluid buildup of some sort. I'm not worried or anything, but considering what people sung about Diego Costo I'll stay inside for a couple of days.

(Seeing as it looks like an allergic reaction I've had several times before it's not at all certain that it has anything to do with the vaccine. It would be a weird coincidence, both because it hasn't happened for a very long time and because it didn't itch, but coincidences do happen. And if it was because of the vaccince then it's not really a problem, it's just weird and I already have improved from Diego Costa to someone who just got his face punched in.)

edit: I've talked to a doctor just in case, they said to chug anti-histamines just because, stay upright because fluilds, and get in contact again if it either gets worse or stays the same for a long time. They didn't seem too worried, so I'm sure it's fine. I look proper weird, though.