They are just trying to project strength. They can't win a war with NATO, Putin knows that as much anyone. He's just trying to be seen as a big player.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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That's not entirely true. What a country wants is determined by the government in charge at the time.
When these countries have Russian backed puppets they want to be pro Russian and when they have Western installed puppets they want to be NATO influenced.
Georgia and Ukraine both had "colour revolutions". Who funded and orchestrated those?
They would almost certainly win a conventional ground war in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and the Baltics.
No one is winning a nuclear contest obviously...
The Russians would make initial gains but over time the superior weaponry of NATO will degrade their supply lines and communication and then forces will be brought to bear, forcing the Russians to retreat. This has been the common view point since even the Cold War but the difference now is that Russia is not the Soviet Union and that NATO has more of a buffer to implement their plans (no need to worry about Fulda gap or North German Plain, at least not initially).
EDIT: Not to mention the fact that Russia cannot sustain the economic cost of such a war, something which the NATO naval forces will ensure with a blockade. Again, there's a reason why Putin does not want Ukraine to join NATO, if he could win in Eastern Europe there wouldn't be all this controversy right now.
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Sure if they push too far west, if they just stick to Eastern Europe little can be done to stop them.
https://warontherocks.com/2016/04/outnumbered-outranged-and-outgunned-how-russia-defeats-nato/
If anyone's interested, this is a much-shared article on Reddit. To summarize: according to the author, Russia isn't necessarily interesting in controlling Ukrainian land.
Rather, Russia wants to change the current dynamic. In this dynamic they see Ukraine as a permant problem if they don't intervene now, and the costs of inaction may be greater than taking action.
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/
Rather, Russia wants to change the current dynamic. In this dynamic they see Ukraine as a permant problem if they don't intervene now, and the costs of inaction may be greater than taking action.
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/
Yeah. It's obviously not a complete silence on the matter but if the decision was made up then I'd expect the propaganda would've been firing on all cylinders in order to justify those measures. It's kinda nice to know but then it's obviously not a guarantee of anything.
By the way... In my opinion Russia doesn't have the right to interfere with Ukraine's internal politics — how does this contradicts that in reality they, well, did? It's almost as if my opinion and Russia's politics are not the same thing.
Although the last sentence is a funny one considering that most influential countries do interfere with other countries internal politics in many different, mostly economical, ways. It just doesn't go to an extent of Russia & Ukraine.
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Don't forget the attempts at Belarus & Kazakhstan that they've managed to suppress for now... But that damn Shadow Government keeps spending billions of dollars on spreading their colour revolutions all over the post-Soviet space.
As for the question — what are your suggestions?
I suspect the Americans and Europeans and the Russians do the same when they want to change govts to one's in their favour.
Depressing read and I can't even nitpick anything.
And what exactly are "coloured revolutions"? How are they different from the regular ones if you don't mind me asking?
@harms Is there any mention in Russian MSM about the western media claims that invasion is imminent?
From what I've read on various posts online, reddit etc, its like 4th main story in the news. There is no mention of Russia military encroachment, they are just talking about it as if US/NATO have pretty much invaded Ukraine.
I read this really compelling article in The Nation about the Ukrainian situation. This might be something worth reading for people (like me) who know next to nothing about the situation apart from the headlines.
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-donbas-russia-conflict/
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-donbas-russia-conflict/
The main focus is on the hostility of the Western policy & press that reacts to Russia’s internal affairs (as at the moment it’s just our prolonged military training that takes place on Russia’s own territory). So yeah, funnily enough they accuse the collective West of interfering with our own thing that shouldn’t concern them.
It's that time again, both US and UK leaders in trouble domestically . Time for another conflict
This time they're just going to talk the talk. The US and the UK won't be attacking anyone who can fight back effectively.
I get the feeling all the little Russian flags on those tanks entering Ukraine are going to really confuse you.
Some reports that Putin's goal is to activate 100 BTGs, then its go time.
Damn, that’s a shitload of BTGs. That & hospital / logistical capability increase is what I’ve seen will signal impending cross border operations after the inevitable false flag, etc. event.
There's been a sudden escalation in terms of the media coverage since last night/this morning though
DNR's leader, Denis Pushilin, had already gave an interview to one of Russia's federal TV-channels claiming that Ukraine is getting ready for an invasion (not for the Russian one to be clear, to invade DNR & LNR's territories). Which very much suits the whole false flag operation theory.
Oh dear!There's been a sudden escalation in terms of the media coverage since last night/this morning though
DNR's leader, Denis Pushilin, had already gave an interview to one of Russia's federal TV-channels claiming that Ukraine is getting ready for an invasion (not for the Russian one to be clear, to invade DNR & LNR's territories). Which very much suits the whole false flag operation theory.
What % of the people you reckon will buy this eventually?There's been a sudden escalation in terms of the media coverage since last night/this morning though
DNR's leader, Denis Pushilin, had already gave an interview to one of Russia's federal TV-channels claiming that Ukraine is getting ready for an invasion (not for the Russian one to be clear, to invade DNR & LNR's territories). Which very much suits the whole false flag operation theory.
NATO does not have that though... there isnt the political will to accept body bags coming home - Biden knows it, Putin Knows it
Will be the same dynamic when China asserts its rights over Taiwan in a few years
quick question - would putin undertake the same strategy if trump was still in power?
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He already would be staging parades in Kiev if Trump was in power.
So why didn't Putin invade then???
He's talking about the present not several years ago, when he was just wrapping up his Crimea and Donbas invasions.
Out of his generosity he wanted to give us, Internet people, something to speculate about.
Who in NATO has the willpower to do any of that though?
It will be the usual air and naval strikes from afar but after 20 years in the Middle East there will be no political appetite to put boots on the ground unless Putin is knocking on the door of Berlin or Paris, which he has no interest in doing.
I honestly don’t even know.
Odd thread for you to jump in. Reading comprehension has not improved though.
Taiwan is strategically important due to semi-conductor manufacturing there and other reasons. Pretty certain there would be a response from many countries (including Japan...., despite their "constitution"), body bags would be tolerated, if and when China decided to invade Taiwan. So hopefully they won't.
Agree for Ukraine, and even the Baltic countries are largely at Russia's mercy here, the US won't step in and no one else has the military capability to stop Russia.
For the third question, maybe not, because of how unpredictable the response could be.
Baltic countries are members of NATO unless you mean Finland & Sweden. I doubt that even he would be stupid (daring?) enough to invade one of NATO’s countries since all of them would have to respond by default.
I very much doubt he would, but on the ground there isn't much stopping him from doing so. See my link above for the military problems in defending these areas from Russia.
They are all going to be very reluctant obviously, but I don't think I quite agree with the idea that the west is going to sit on their hands in this scenario. They have in the past... that's where this narrative comes from, but I don't think there is a past event we can compare to this scenario?
We are talking about an open declaration of war and invasion of the largest country in Europe (aside from the aggressor), without anything close to a legitimate reason. You would have to go back to WW2 to find something comparable, and we all know how that turned out.
This will be incredible if he actually goes through with it, the act of a madman. I don't think he will personally, he has proven to be an evil cnut happy to watch his own countrymen die for his own gain... but this is another level entirely.
I gotta admit though, looking at the daily increases of troops and equipment being transferred all accross the Ukranian border en masse... Its looking scary.
Interesting article here on Putins strategic goals vs the United States and NATO, taking advantage of US weakness.