Russia won’t invade a NATO country as it knows it would be beaten.
I’m still unconvinced they will invade (fully) the Ukraine either. If it does I expect they’ll be very serious repercussions and don’t expect the US to stand by and allow it.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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I’m still unconvinced they will invade (fully) the Ukraine either. If it does I expect they’ll be very serious repercussions and don’t expect the US to stand by and allow it.
One interpretation I've seen is that Trump didn't care about Ukraine so Putin could never get anything by threatening to invade it or ultimately carrying out an invasion other than direct control of Ukraine. There wouldn't be further concessions from NATO, which is what he wants. Because Biden does care about Ukraine, he thinks he can leverage the military buildup and threat of invasion as a means to get some form of concession from NATO and the EU.
I guess Ukraine should've kept their nukes.
The whole history of the Non-Proliferation Treaty is inherently unfair I guess, but trading fairness for stability. The actual experiences of it in the past 50 years however show that a country is probably better off going against the Treaty than believing in its promise of stability.
The whole history of the Non-Proliferation Treaty is inherently unfair I guess, but trading fairness for stability. The actual experiences of it in the past 50 years however show that a country is probably better off going against the Treaty than believing in its promise of stability.
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Again, on the ground their membership in NATO literally stops him — because otherwise he’s basically starting a war with literally every member of the alliance. With Ukraine we can only hope that some of the bigger powers will step in. If he invades, say, Latvia, he invades Germany, UK & US as well.
Nothing. They do it all the time with France.
They also flew over Irish air space not too long ago. The RAF chased them off for us
This is happening, they’re now shifting their tone to an imminent attack by Ukraine on those unrecognized republics (even mentioned the potential use of chemical weapons provided by USA). Suggestions in parliament to fast track the recognition of Donetsk and Lughansk republics as Russian people living there are under immediate threat by Kiev. Obviously, saying Kiev is not complaining with Minsk agreements etc.
They also do that all the time. Sometimes they even do it with bombers(TU-160), above the Channel with sometimes entries in british or french airspace. Their submarines basically live in the Channel.
They should have indeed, as should have the rest of the states that had them. Some of them wouldnt have been admitted in NATO with such gear though.
Oh the profanity
Well there is a huge amount of posturing from Russia and they continue to build up their forces.
If it does invade Ukraine, there will undoubtedly be massive economic sanctions against them.
But it is reported that China is prepared to support Russia with loans to mitigate the potential impact of such sanctions.
However, China is highly unlikely to support Russia while the Winter Olympic Games are taking place in China.
All of this may well be potentially positive for the future of NATO, underscoring its importance.
Mother Germany needs her gas.
I don't see what there is to interpret, it seems pretty clear?
Trumps links with Ukraine are so bonkers I don't think there is any chance we the public know the full story about whats really going on there, but for sure he had large interests there, for whatever reason.
He certainly didn't care about Ukraine as a sovereign country, so could be some truth to that interpretation, but you've also got:
- The Hunter Biden Stuff.
- The attacks on the US ambassador to Ukraine.
- The attempt to blackmail Ukraine's president to help in Trump's re-election campaign.
- Of all the things going on in the US and the world, removing Obama's Crimean invasion sanctions was apparently #1 priority when he took office, this is what Trump's national security advisor served jail time for, before eventually accepting his pardon.
- Trump's original campaign manager previously spent 10 years in Ukraine working for an anti-NATO party, helping to get the Russian puppet Yanukovych re-elected. That guy is as close to an obvious Russian agent/asset as it gets without him going about with a KGB cap on his head.
Random theory, could this whole thing be a ploy to take full control of Belarus? When the Ukraine 'crisis' dies down, some troops stay behind...
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That's good. Similar conclusion to the NYT one I posted earlier.
This is a good article, but one bit I am not sure about : that Putin has even a consideration for Russia's elites. I think they live in constant fear of a midnight visit and a prolonged vacation at a work camp.
EU being mentioned in just the one sentence conveys precisely its actual relevance in this affair.
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Ukrainian security official saying the West is exaggerating the crisis. Possibly to put fear into the Ukrainians and force them to make concessions? Make Boris Johnson look good to the public because he's "tough" on Russia? Same for Biden?
That's exactly the point. With the way Russia and China keep harping on claiming lands that they deem to be traditionally theirs, we can play this game for fans of former countries and empires. France can try reclaiming the Napoleonic Empire, Mongolia with their (super) large Mongol Empire, Spain wanting their colonies back to tell the late Simon Bolivar to feck off, etc. People would be having a laugh at them.
Right... I thought this was pretty obvious ?
I am not sure, 80+K manpower on the border is no joke.
The author of the article also gave a briefing to a bunch of think tankers that you can see on Youtube:
He goes into detail about Russian troop buildup and the like and the reasons for why he thinks war is inevitable. His conclusions are sound I feel.
Beaten by who?
Russia and China can wipe out the world in a second.
Russia has 100k troops at the edge of Ukraine and the combined amount of troops from nato forces is no where near even half of that.
Factor in Chinas agreement to protect Russia and vice versa, its not even a debate.
He also has a portrait of Captain Jean-Luc Picard on his wall and a viking shield on his bookcase. He is legit.
Seriously, he's a good twitter follow for anyone trying to follow this.
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So two countries who place limited respect on the value on life and has near unlimited troops, are gonna be stopped by Nato?
Only way that would happen is if Nato nuked both countries and that will never happen.
Reports over weekend are, that Russia will move into Ukraine in February.
I also wouldn't be betting against Russia and China winning the Winter Olympics either at this point.
Look at history. You’ll be surprised that things don’t always go how you think.
The Russian economy has already taken a huge hit overnight. Rouble has plummeted against the Dollar and Pound.
US has the best military in the world bar none with the rest of the organisation making up the other spots.
It won’t come to it as no one will want it in the end but to think Russia will be allowed to do whatever it likes is naive
Taking military action out of the equation for a moment.
I can see the West submitting to allow Russia to take control of Ukraine.
The UK has a history of supporting such things which ultimate lead to war.
The Ukraine, isn't the end game for Russia, that is the bigger problem and history has shown, it always repeats itself.
'The West'/NATO won't fight as you say, they will provide support. Ukraine has standing army of 250k+ with a rapidly inreasing reservist force that could be in the millions by the end of the week. It just needs gear and training, which the west appears to be willing to provide.
Russian won't take Ukraine with 100k troops... but then if they really do want to invade I'd expect that number to also increase.
What Ukraine desperately needs is an Air Force. And that you can’t just beef up over night.
This is a great video, thanks.
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I'm sorry, but that's a ridiculous take.
Putin is no bloody fool. He is not going to start a war he is not going to win. He is never going to win against NATO. Forget about the USA alone.
The only way is nuclear and if that happens goodbye everyone.
People shouldn't be pushing for it. Some of the Russian demands are unreasonable while some are very reasonable.
The only way is nuclear and if that happens goodbye everyone.
People shouldn't be pushing for it. Some of the Russian demands are unreasonable while some are very reasonable.
NATO won't go to war over a non-NATO terrority.