NFL 2021

[Charlie Foley]

If you look back at that Bengals game, it was mighty close to not getting it done. I agree the “looking like mugsy malone” factor is primarily why teams don’t do it. But also, there is an angle that you trust your defence too. It’s easy with hindsight but i guess what it ultimately boils down to is a) % chances of scoring with x tries in x minutes/seconds inside the x yard line, vs b) % chances of your defence not allowing x yards (assuming a touchback) in x minutes of play to prevent a TD/FG, including % chance of the team making that FG. If you strip out the looking like a fool element, that’s the analytic that should be driving your choice real time.

I actually think this is really important. There is a certain subset of fans of every sport who push back against analytics and I think there is still a mindset of it’s worse to get something wrong being “over analytical” and going against perceived wisdom in making it a mathematical equation, than just not doing the percentages and doing what “feels right” or adheres to conventional wisdom. It is a more extreme version of that guy who accidentally scored a touchdown last year, or the Titans coach saving clock by getting intentional penalties on D on 2nd and short, since you’re behind and have a shot to take the lead you might not get again. I don’t know when that cultural Mental breakthrough will fully happen and we all agree you look stupider not playing the percentages and going with what’s more normal.

It’s like Wilt Chamberlain (indeed most players) and the granny shot/underarm free throw in basketball. Especially after the 100 point game, it was idiotic that he went back to the conventional free throw shot, but his “reasoning” is accepted.

 

[Charlie Foley]

HCs like Harbaugh or Vrabel are usually quite savvy at managing the clock and doing unorthodox things at the end of games. Doesn't always pay off but still...

Sean Payton does crazy things from time to time as well but guess he's just generally aggressive instead of innovative re: game and time management.

Yeah, Vrabel is really good at it: quite creative and has a really solid understanding of the rules and how they can help him

 

[RoadTrip]

Yeah, Vrabel is really good at it: quite creative and has a really solid understanding of the rules and how they can help him

I always think of how he ran the clock against us in that playoff game.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

It’s like Wilt Chamberlain (indeed most players) and the granny shot/underarm free throw in basketball. Especially after the 100 point game, it was idiotic that he went back to the conventional free throw shot, but his “reasoning” is accepted.

Shaq could have been the most unstoppable player in history if he deigned to granny shot his free throws.

 

[Rado_N]

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@Rado_N

Interesting, thanks for the tag

 

[Charlie Foley]

I always think of how he ran the clock against us in that playoff game.

Yeah, I think Bill did that against the Jets in a regular season game too. Vrabel doing it in the Lion’s den one point up in the playoffs was incredible though

 

[JPRouve]

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Minnesota drama. A-Rod is about to get thrown out of the state.

 

[Sylar]

Best weekend for the playoffs? Every game basically a walk off win

Sucks for bills, seen it happen to packers a few times where one QB doesn't even get a chance . In playoffs would still like the college rules especially after a game like that.

 

[calodo2003]

Best weekend for the playoffs? Every game basically a walk off win

Sucks for bills, seen it happen to packers a few times where one QB doesn't even get a chance . In playoffs would still like the college rules especially after a game like that.

Potentially the best weekend ever, regular season or playoffs.

 

[RobinLFC]

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Also seen long-time NFL insiders or journalists covering the league that given the setting and implications, that Bills @ Chiefs game was the best game of all time, but not sure about that.

Who would've thought we would get an even better game after that second half of the Rams @ Bucs.

Crazy stuff.

 

[RoadTrip]

It was a great weekend don’t get me wrong. But, outside of the bills and chiefs, all the other games were close generally due to some shoddy execution or stupidity. Drama wise, it’s definitely unparalleled though. But the first 3 games, I generally found a grind except the amazing endings. Can’t immediately think of a playoff weekend that was better though.

 

[RoadTrip]

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Also seen long-time NFL insiders or journalists covering the league that given the setting and implications, that Bills @ Chiefs game was the best game of all time, but not sure about that.

Who would've thought we would get an even better game after that second half of the Rams @ Bucs.

Crazy stuff.

For me that Bills Chiefs game was incredible. There’s been some amazing Super Bowls, especially as a patriots fan. But just in pure quality as well as drama, you’ll need to search hard to find a better game. And even if ya do it wouldn’t be better by much.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I like how people are talking about it being the best weekend of games ever when a common refrain here was about how the games were putting them to sleep.

 

[hellhunter]

For me that Bills Chiefs game was incredible. There’s been some amazing Super Bowls, especially as a patriots fan. But just in pure quality as well as drama, you’ll need to search hard to find a better game. And even if ya do it wouldn’t be better by much.

Nothing beats 28-3 for me. That Edelman catch alone was something else

 

[RobinLFC]

Seattle comeback against the Packers in 2014 NFC Championship game definitely worth a mention as well. 16-0 'till midway through the 3th when Seattle scored a TD on a fake punt, and it was 19-7 until right before the 2min warning. Then the recovered onside kick and Lynch TD, that 2PT conversion heave by Wilson, I'll never forget it.

Nothing beats 28-3 for me. That Edelman catch alone was something else

The Julio Jones one at the end of the game was even better

 

[RoadTrip]

Nothing beats 28-3 for me. That Edelman catch alone was something else

For me I put the Hawks win ahead of the Falcons one. The Falcons game was right up there don’t get me wrong, but we couldn’t have got there without some strange play calling and penalties from the Falcons. The Seahawks one, whilst may not have been if they ran Lynch, is bigger for me because we came back against the Legion of Boom which was just incredible. And it was the first in a long time.

 

[RoadTrip]

I like how people are talking about it being the best weekend of games ever when a common refrain here was about how the games were putting them to sleep.

That’s my point entirely. Great drama but let’s be honest, outside of the last few moments in the first 3 games, and some stupidity, they’d never have been close. The Bills Chiefs game is my idea of the ultimate game. Close, excellent football. Could say the only thing that might have made it better is a bit more execution by the defence on both teams. But otherwise it was pretty much near perfect as a spectacle.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Seattle comeback against the Packers in 2014 NFC Championship game definitely worth a mention as well. 16-0 'till midway through the 3th when Seattle scored a TD on a fake punt, and it was 19-7 until right before the 2min warning. Then the recovered onside kick and Lynch TD, that 2PT conversion heave by Wilson, I'll never forget it.

That Packers DB that inexplicably went down after he picked Wilson, when he could probably have gotten into FG range was insane. The game wasn’t over at all.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

I originally got into American Football when Channel 4 started showing it in the 80s (hence why a 49ers ‘fan’… glory hunter ) and I remembered some mad scoring game with the Dolphins and the Jets (always liked watching Marino launching it).

Just googled it (and watched highlights again). 51-45, literal last second TD to tie, OT win, some ridiculous number of points in one quarter (possibly a record?), 7 lead changes and both QBs passed for over 400 yards.

 

[RobinLFC]

I originally got into American Football when Channel 4 started showing it in the 80s (hence why a 49ers ‘fan’… glory hunter ) and I remembered some mad scoring game with the Dolphins and the Jets (always liked watching Marino launching it).

Just googled it (and watched highlights again). 51-45, literal last second TD to tie, OT win, some ridiculous number of points in one quarter (possibly a record?), 7 lead changes and both QBs passed for over 400 yards.

You know you're old when you can cite exciting games involving the Jets.

 

[RobinLFC]

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Everyone should read this thread, some excellent points in there.

Love the "bidding system" for OT starting field position

 

[Raoul]

For me that Bills Chiefs game was incredible. There’s been some amazing Super Bowls, especially as a patriots fan. But just in pure quality as well as drama, you’ll need to search hard to find a better game. And even if ya do it wouldn’t be better by much.

Bills Chiefs is being compared to the Epic in Miami, which is generally considered one of the greatest games in NFL history.

 

[P-Ro]

I think they should get a "soccer" ball & goal on the field and just have a penalty shoot out with the starting QBs as the goalies.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

I thought the Niners packers game was excellent to watch from start to finish. Lambaeu atmosphere with the snow and the tension made for a great game

 

[Charlie Foley]

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Everyone should read this thread, some excellent points in there.

Love the "bidding system" for OT starting field position

Similar to the bidding system here’s what we do.

both teams pick a number between 1 and 49. They hand this number to a referee on a piece of paper.
There are two options here:
(A) The team that picks the higher number gets possession first. But the lower number determines what yard line they start from. You want to go high to win but not too high so as to give them good field possession. To avoid both teams just picking 49, if you draw the same number both teams lose (this doesn’t work in the super bowl, ok), so teams have to either play chicken or pick a close but different number.

(B) the team that picks the lower number gets possession first. But they start from their own yard line of the number they picked, you want to go low but not too low. Again can do same number=everyone loses.


Yeah

 

[utdalltheway]

(Click the open it on YouTube option - it’s prime content from Randy Moss)

Getting back to this; thanks CR, that's really great.
I've never played play station so I'm not sure what he's on about ("They don't play the playstation like us! They don't play it like us!") but I love that he's miked (mic'd?) up and the camera is just on him

 

[Carolina Red]

Getting back to this; thanks CR, that's really great.
I've never played play station so I'm not sure what he's on about ("They don't play the playstation like us! They don't play it like us!") but I love that he's miked (mic'd?) up and the camera is just on him

In the Madden NFL video game he always picked tails in the coin toss

 

[MrMarcello]

HCs like Harbaugh or Vrabel are usually quite savvy at managing the clock and doing unorthodox things at the end of games. Doesn't always pay off but still...

Sean Payton does crazy things from time to time as well but guess he's just generally aggressive instead of innovative re: game and time management.

Every coach should have an analytics spreadsheet available that is labeled "WWJGD" and list all the times he fecked up late game clock management, and then do the opposite.

WWJGD - what would Jason Garrett do

 

[tentan]

Packers - San Fran - Green Bay messed up big time. How on earth did they lose that game? Only have themselves to blame. Rodgers needs to leave, and I don't agree with him blaming the special teams, its his fault as much as anyone else's.

Bengals - Titans - Will done to the Bengals. I had a feeling they would get an upset and they did.

Rams - Tampa - Thank god Brady will not win another Super Bowl (not this year anyway). But you just knew the Rams would let that lead slip, they got it done in the end but I swear Brady has some magic powers where his teams always comeback regardless of how many points the opposition are ahead.

Chiefs - Bills - Unlucky for the Bills, Josh Allen is brilliant. They are good enough to win a Super Bowl in the next few years.

 

[tentan]

Regarding the overtime rules and no one really liking it, I have an idea, would a field goal penalty shootout work?

Ok just like football each time gets 5 attempts and then sudden death if its still tied.

Rules are exactly like a football penalty shootout.

1. The team who wins the coin toss get to pick who kicks first. The kicker will do all the kicking instead of a different penalty shooter for each penalty.
2. Best out of 5 then sudden death if still tied.
3. Obviously if they score they score and if they miss or its blocked then its a miss of course.
4. But theres a bit of a catch, on each attempt the ball is placed 10 yards further away from the goal.

So for example

Ravens v Chiefs - Overtime - Ravens win the coin toss and select to go first.

Attempt 1. (Ball placed on the 20 yard line) Tucker scores. - 1-0
Attempt 1. (Ball placed on the 20 yard line) Butler scores - 1-1

Attempt 2. (Ball placed on the 30 yard line) Tucker scores - 2-1
Attempt 2. (Ball placed on the 30 yard line) Butler scores - 2-2

Attempt 3. (Ball placed on the 40 yard line) Tucker scores 3-2
Attempt 3. (Ball placed on the 40 yard line) Butler scores - 3-3

Attempt 4. (Ball placed on the 50 yard line) Tucker scores 4-3
Attempt 4. (Ball placed on the 50 yard line) Butler misses - 4-3

Attempt 5. (Ball placed on the 60 yard line) Tucker scores 5-3 - Ravens win.

 

[Dave Smith]

The thing is, it's incredibly hard to not take the shot at a touchdown when you get the chance. I was thinking when Fournette ran in for the score that it might have been better to just run out of bounds at the 1 and taken another set of downs, but what if they don't score? It's a big risk. Heads would have to roll

I know your scenario is different because the decision is being made by the play-caller before the snap and not a player who is the running unimpeded into the end-zone, but once the decision was made to go with Allen's arm, not throwing to the wide open guy was impossible.

Lenny kneeing a couple of inches short was probably the most savvy way of going about things. I mean if he took a knee a couple of inches short, they run the clock down to 10 secs, spike it and then they have Brady (with an O-Line man pushing) try a QB sneek or get Lenny to try and run it in. Probably could've tried both.

Obviously, if that goes wrong it would be bad; although probably still not as bad a blitzing and only have one man coverage on Kupp. I mean seriously, in soccer people have been sacked for less than the equivalent of that (blitz/one man coverage against the equivalent of the best goal scorer in the game.)

Managing the game clock is so important in this sport, yet something I still feel many head coaches just don’t get a hold of.

Yeah, I am a layman in AF terms, but clock management is something I just don't get with some of the plays. When watching the Bills on their last drive I was like 'just keep the clock ticking, don't take your snaps so quickly!'. It was also why I think their punt in the 3rd when 4th and inches (in midfield) was idiotic.

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Everyone should read this thread, some excellent points in there.

Love the "bidding system" for OT starting field position

Personally, I would have the AF version of sudden death penalty shoot out. Each kicker alternates with them starting at the 20 yard line and going back 5 yards after each completed series.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Regarding the overtime rules and no one really liking it, I have an idea, would a field goal penalty shootout work?

Personally, I would have the AF version of sudden death penalty shoot out. Each kicker alternates with them starting at the 20 yard line and going back 5 yards after each completed series.

Y’all aren’t being serious, are you…?

 

[Dave Smith]

Y’all aren’t being serious, are you…?

Semi as it would be hilarious to see how the someone like Skip Bayliss would deal with it.

 

[Carolina Red]

Semi as it would be hilarious to see how the someone like Skip Bayliss would deal with it.

It’ll be hard to watch Skip when the whole country is being burned to the ground

 

[MrMarcello]

If we go field goal shootout style it has to be position players taking the kicks. That would make for fantastic viewing.

 

[RoadTrip]

Why do you all want to turn the NFL into WWE?!

 

[hellhunter]

Why do you all want to turn the NFL into WWE?!

Just going with the times, first F1 now NFL

 

[P-Ro]

Why do you all want to turn the NFL into WWE?!

Tom Brady for the cover....

1...2...Thr..
No!!
Chair shot. Another chair shot.
@altodevil
That's enough. That's enough.
You son of a bitch.

He's screwing Brady out of the title.

And now he's running. Running like a scolded dog.

 

[Rado_N]

WTF

 

[RobinLFC]

Apparently under the current rules, teams that won the coin toss in the POs are 10-1. That's a far cry from the it's still a 50/50 chance argument.

I'm fine with the rules for the regular season (even if they do suck), but really needs to change for the palyoffs. There are enough proposals out there to make it more interesting, although I'd hate to see the element of a walk-off TD being removed, it's given us so many iconic moments (Demaryius Thomas and Jermaine Kearse the first ones that come to mind).

I think I like these four the best:
- Decide OT starting possession based on coin toss before the game, so each team knows who will get the ball first and can play accordingly
- Let the teams decide between themselves with some sort of bidding system (but with good rules, not to make a farce out of it)
- Give the higher seeded team or the home team first possession in OT, so they get rewarded for a better regular season record (and both teams know beforehand, can play accordingly in Q4)
- If you score a TD on first possession, you need to go for a 2PT conversion. If you convert the game is over, if you don't the other team gets one possession to match or better your drive