Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[slyadams]

Russia invading a NATO member doesn’t mean that the nukes will be flying the day after. It almost surely means a direct conventional war between Russia and the US though. Which likely means early advantages for Russia but in a few months after that, they will be in full retreat.

In meanwhile, there is so many things that can go bad for a nuke or two to fly. And then, all bets are off.

There's absolutely no way to know that at all against a guy like Putin. That's the risk the west will have to take and I don't think its a foregone conclusion they will.

 

[TheLiverBird]

War is young men dying and old men talking.

That being said it’s difficult for me to have sympathy with any Russian troops here

Its not so much having sympathy, but more understanding they are are just soldiers doing their jobs like their Ukrainian adversaries, and for that…I’ll be taking no pleasure from hearing of Russian Soldiers being killed in combat.

Sadly it’s a necessity though, the Ukrainians will defend themselves and damn rightly so.

 

[The Brown Bull]

Two wrongs doesn't make it right.

We can't excuse what Russia is doing now due to NATO wrongdoings in the past.

Exactly right.I would also make the point that NATO countries are democracies, there is at least some accountability.This is certainly not the case with Putin’s Russia.

 

[Revan]

Its not so much having sympathy, but more understanding they are are just soldiers doing their jobs like their Ukrainian adversaries, and for that…I’ll be taking no pleasure from hearing of Russian Soldiers being killed in combat.

Sadly it’s a necessity though, the Ukrainians will defend themselves and damn rightly so.

The more Russian soldiers die in Ukraine, the higher a chance that Russia withdraws. Simple as that.

 

[sport2793]

You are aware that Serbians and Bosnian Serbs is not the same thing ? I think you meant Serbs, not Serbians.

Ya I'm aware of the difference, although the Bosnian Serbs would not have gotten far without Serbian support of course.

 

[Gambit]

One thing I can see coming from this is a call for a proper EU land and air army under a central command.

 

[DickDastardly]

I'm going to go on a whim here......

This ends by tomorrow.
The Russians stop near Kijev. Take Harkov and Dnipro.

And that's it. The West says "oh well".
We do want your gas and luxuries and what not, so no sanctions for anyone.

Ukraine are crippled, but, no one dies.

 

[padzilla]

Is there a chance the US will do nothing beyond a few press conferences and announcing sanctions because Russia will give them a scrap if it goes down to war between the two?

 

[Enigma_87]

It does not I agree, but it's not in the past, NATO just pulled out of Afghanistan and their policy is still the same. Just give it time, but please don't try and paint it all like it's behind us. The whole Middle East is a mess, Lybia is what not? People are still dying because of that.

They are all different matters and whilst I agree with you on past events it's exactly why it should be to prevent any new wrongdoings rather than use them as an excuse.

Each case should be handled and judged individually and many did not condone what NATO did in those countries.

It's not like Russia is with a clean dossier for its military involvements in the past.

 

[JPRouve]

Sorry for stating the truth but yes, what legal mechanism does the EU have to supersede bilateral security treaties? The EU is an economic union. If the Baltics, Poland, and Romania want US troops in the 6 figures (and they all seem like they would jump at the opportunity) it will happen. EU is irrelevant when it comes to security concerns, which is why Macron was trying to change that over the last few months. EU is more important when it comes to measures like sanctions.

You see, that's what I suspected and why I had an issue with your post, that part is wrong. These Baltic countries are part of the EU territory, they are part of the internal borders of the EU, part of the common security and defense policy, every member of the EU has a mutual defense clause with one another. The EU have never been just an economic union and the EU whehter you are talking about the largest members or the institution isn't irrelevant when it comes to security concerns.

 

[Kostov]

This is quite frankly all lies and propaganda fueled by those who dont want to accept the truth of their own crimes. The Serbians committed 5x the amount of war crimes compared to other parties in the multiple conflicts they were involved in. They literally tried to wipe out ethnic groups, the Bosnian Serbs being the worst in this regard.

It's all lies and propaganda? The serbs have been the worst participants of the conflicts, yes that is one I agree. Were the albanians any better? I don't think so. The US installed their base and now Kosovo is what? Democracy? Maybe try and see the real world instead of watching CNN and thinking you are the saviors of the world.

 

[Kostov]

They are all different matters and whilst I agree with you on past events it's exactly why it should be to prevent any new wrongdoings rather than use them as an excuse.

Each case should be handled and judged individually and many did not condone what NATO did in those countries.

It's not like Russia is with a clean dossier for its military involvements in the past.

It is not, however I don't think the death toll is even close to that of the Western "democracy" is it? And I don't think it's an excuse just people and their hipocricy is laughable.

 

[TMDaines]

Uf of, we have a lunatic here.

Who also doesn’t know much of history, it when do lunatics know anything.

i think anyone with any kind of knowledge of history does not justify what is happening now with what’s happened in the past. history is just pointless otherwise.

Probably all the best history, super history, I bet.
Of all the days to die on a hill for pudding this is a spectacular choice here.

A phrase uttered by all the great historians.

Don't get him on oxygen. The ignore list is there for a reason.

 

[JPRouve]

China is not attacking Russia.

The best thing for China is for the war to continue as long as possible. Even better if NATO actively helps Ukraine (as long as nukes do not start flying).

Wouldn't China benefit from an embargo on Russia? If I'm not mistaken they desparatly need gas and petrol, so being Russia's only* buyer would be a pretty good deal.

*Foreign Oil companies will keep purchasing, they have done business with ISIS, Putin is nothing for them.

 

[Mihai]

Might as well get those fascists in Moldova as well

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Haven't heard anything (I am from Moldova and part of my family is still there). They imposed state of emergency this morning though.

It's probably people hearing from across the border. Odessa is close to Chisinau.

 

[TMDaines]

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I have used this border crossing many, many times on foot between Poland and Ukraine. I cannot imagine it would be targeted militarily, but this is where the refugee crisis will be.

 

[Kostov]

Probably all the best history, super history, I bet.


Of all the days to die on a hill for pudding this is a spectacular choice here.

Listen we have had a long discussion with that revan chap re history, I think the guy is ethnic albanian and I understand his reasons for the animosity towards Serbs. Yet his hypocrisy is evident. The Albanians took arms and took part of Serbia via force and with NATO help. All was okey back than, now everyone is enraged when Russia does it for their own people. We are all okey with it, when it's 3000km away from home, but when it comes in our backyard, than we take it seriously.

 

[Gambit]

Loving sky news greren screen acting as if theyre there live.

 

[TMDaines]

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Edit: Bellingcat suggest reports of missiles from Transnistria are false.

 

[Pexbo]

I'm going to go on a whim here......

This ends by tomorrow.
The Russians stop near Kijev. Take Harkov and Dnipro.

And that's it. The West says "oh well".
We do want your gas and luxuries and what not, so no sanctions for anyone.

Ukraine are crippled, but, no one dies.

No chance. Russia are going all in to secure the whole of Ukraine. They’re going to install puppets in the two new Republics and western Ukraine which will then be absorbed into Russia via a completely free and fair referendum over the next decade.

 

[sport2793]

You see, that's what I suspected and why I had an issue with your post, that part is wrong. These Baltic countries are part of the EU territory, they are part of the internal borders of the EU, part of the common security and defense policy, every member of the EU has a mutual defense clause with one another. The EU have never been just an economic union and the EU whehter you are talking about the largest members or the institution isn't irrelevant when it comes to security concerns.

Ya but you haven't stated any legal mechanism by which the EU could prevent a country like Lithuania inviting US troops into its country. That's why the EU as an entity isn't that important in such a situation.

 

[Kostov]

A phrase uttered by all the great historians.

Yes thank you for the compliment.

 

[Buster15]

What do you suggest they do?

Doesn't matter what I would suggest. We have elected politicians and the military. And that is their responsibility.

 

[Paxi]

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[Enigma_87]

Wouldn't China benefit from an embargo on Russia? If I'm not mistaken they desparatly need gas and petrol, so being Russia's only* buyer would be a pretty good deal.

*Foreign Oil companies will keep purchasing, they have done business with ISIS, Putin is nothing for them.

It will be a great deal for them. As I said East will buy every molecule of gas there is. Japan is also low on reserves despite deal with Qatar.

China benefits from both sides, especially being in a trade war with the States. They just need to hold neutral status and not have missiles flying their way.

 

[RobinLFC]

You see, that's what I suspected and why I had an issue with your post, that part is wrong. These Baltic countries are part of the EU territory, they are part of the internal borders of the EU, part of the common security and defense policy, every member of the EU has a mutual defense clause with one another. The EU have never been just an economic union and the EU whehter you are talking about the largest members or the institution isn't irrelevant when it comes to security concerns.

That's the theory yeah, but can that be translated into practice? I thought the EU was pretty hapless when it comes to being an actual military force.

 

[KingCavani]

Does anyone, including the all knowing US intelligence knows - WHAT excatly is Putin's end game here?

US intelligence couldn't even foresee the endgame of their own invasions.

 

[TMDaines]

Seems the Russian attack was not a widespread as it seemed earlier on in the night.

 

[Simbo]

I'm going to go on a whim here......

This ends by tomorrow.
The Russians stop near Kijev. Take Harkov and Dnipro.

And that's it. The West says "oh well".
We do want your gas and luxuries and what not, so no sanctions for anyone.

Ukraine are crippled, but, no one dies.

It's nice to dream I suppose... Delusion however is unhealthy.

 

[Buster15]

On one hand we are called war mongerers when ever we intervene and critized for not intervening. Having a hot war with Russia is the most dangerous scenario since the cold war.

Understand that. As I have said. Appeasement is not the answer. Especially against bullies like Putin.

 

[Abizzz]

Listen we have had a long discussion with that revan chap re history, I think the guy is ethnic albanian and I understand his reasons for the animosity towards Serbs. Yet his hypocrisy is evident. The Albanians took arms and took part of Serbia via force and with NATO help. All was okey back than, now everyone is enraged when Russia does it for their own people. We are all okey with it, when it's 3000km away from home, but when it comes in our backyard, than we take it seriously.

Whatever your point is choosing today and this thread to make it devalues it.

 

[Buster15]

You'd personally take weapons and go fight Russians in Ukraine? Cause if not, then it all sounds very hollow.

Also, I'm not sure I like the West playing World Police. We haven't done particularly well at that. Protect our own and use diplomatic and financial means to apply pressure to countries that don't play well.

We have just seen what diplomatic and financial pressure does haven't we.

 

[DickDastardly]

No chance. Russia are going all in to secure the whole of Ukraine. They’re going to install puppets in the two new Republics and western Ukraine which will then be absorbed into Russia via a completely free and fair referendum over the next decade.

Isn't it just a tad too big?

I get the "we want the northeastern parts close to our borders" stuff, but the whole Ukraine?

 

[Simbo]

Seems the Russian attack was not a widespread as it seemed earlier on in the night.

If the claims of 6 downed aircraft are true, could be it has forced them to pause and re-evaluate some things? Ukraine is supposed to have very little anti-air.

Without air dominance, Ukraine can effectively defend and they appear to be doing just that.

 

[WPMUFC]

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[Gehrman]

Understand that. As I have said. Appeasement is not the answer. Especially against bullies like Putin.

If we had a direct war with Russia it would be the most dangerous situation since WW2. Because of nukes. I can't see anything apart from sanctions and arming Ukraine.

 

[Buster15]

It is about the US and EU. Because the countries mentioned are part of the EU, they are part of the EU territory, how and why foreign troops are deployed within that territory during crisis is vitally important. To suggest that EU members have no say is very dubious, especially when all EU members have a mutual defense agreement and are already part of the CSDP.

As well as being members of NATO.

 

[Revan]

It is not, however I don't think the death toll is even close to that of the Western "democracy" is it? And I don't think it's an excuse just people and their hipocricy is laughable.

It absolutely is. Go compare the change in regimes after the elections in Kosovo, and compare it with Macedonia when thugs almost killed Zaev and co. Go check the freedom of independent media in Kosovo where every prime minister is attacked all the time, and compare it with Serbia's where Vucic has every relevant media under control.

Listen we have had a long discussion with that revan chap re history, I think the guy is ethnic albanian and I understand his reasons for the animosity towards Serbs. Yet his hypocrisy is evident. The Albanians took arms and took part of Serbia via force and with NATO help. All was okey back than, now everyone is enraged when Russia does it for their own people. We are all okey with it, when it's 3000km away from home, but when it comes in our backyard, than we take it seriously.

We took a part of Serbia that was inhabited by 85% Albanian population, after Serbia killed 12K of us, did a decade of apartheid, and send one million of us (more than half of population) under exile.

 

[KingCavani]

Doesn't matter what I would suggest. We have elected politicians and the military. And that is their responsibility.

Except it really does matter if you're going to complain about inaction.

Not everything is analogous to WW2 - It's such a lazy comparison people make of every situation because to many it's the only history they know. If Hitler had the destructive capabilities Putin had then what do you think would have happened as he was getting boxed in militarily?

Putin has a deterrent against Hitler's fate. You can't deploy the same tactics again without risking literally everyone.

 

[JPRouve]

That's the theory yeah, but can that be translated into practice? I thought the EU was pretty hapless when it comes to being an actual military force.

What it means is that the member states have that obligation which is what matters. A simple example that is already kind of tried and tested is that first you would have France with the quick offensive power while Germany provides logistical support that's something that can happen within hours even if the EUFOR wasn't involved but in reality it wouldn't be just them because what at has happened over the years is that EU members armies have been working and training together regularly. It's not that different from NATO.