Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Mr Pigeon]

Yep, I find it strange people jumping to the defence of Putin when he has as much as threatened nuclear war only several hours ago.

Putin is like that one arsehole you see in a pub every weekend, messing with folk just so he's got an excuse to fight them. He's walking around spilling people's pints over, pinching women's arses, laughing obnoxiously, routinely encroaching on their airspace in the North Sea, and when it doesn't work he eventually resorts to pushing around who he thinks is the smallest guy in the room.

And it turns out that this small guy is actually a ninjutsu grandmaster or, in this case, a country inhabited by 44 million Terminators.

 

[Smores]

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Just posturing I'd assume. Is their really much need for nukes in Belarus?

 

[RoadTrip]

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Escalating quickly.

 

[Frosty]

Question - I know Zelensky is in Kiev along with the Government, but are there any figures outside the city who could continue the fight if Kiev was fully taken by Russian forces?

 

[sullydnl]

I just made a post above. I’m not jumping to his defence but Putin very clearly has a general fear of the west and he clearly thinks they want to make Russia irrelevant. To be clear not saying that’s the case in reality, but it’s foolish to suggest he doesn’t believe it. So, the point I’m making is I very much understand WHY he wants Ukraine in his pocket. And why he is doing what he is doing.That’s different to saying it’s based on real facts. And in any case, as I said above, that in no way gives him any right to invade them. Fighting for their allegiance through diplomatic channels is one thing - and frankly no different to what any country does. But invading them for it? That’s obviously not acceptable and he’s rightly getting condemned for it.

The adjunctive point I would make is that aside from any power-balance fears that may drive his attitude towards Ukranian allegiance on a tactical basis, there also seems doctrine of Russian superiority at play that has little to do with fear of the west. As indicated by portions of his recent speeches, Putin fundamentally doesn't regard Ukraine as a real state. Even if there wasn't geopolitical considerations at play in regards to the west, one suspects that a large degree of contempt for the country and desire to re-establish Russian control over it would still exist and drive Russian policy towards Ukraine.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

It was indeed built for the Soviet space program, to transport shuttles. It was completed at around the same time as the USSR collapsed, I don't know if it ever did anything more than test flights in Soviet colours.
The bureau that designed it, Antonov, was based in Ukraine (unlike Mig, Sukhoi and Tupolev, which were also Soviet aviation design bureaus, but based in Russia).

I see, I just thought that Moscow/Russia were the ones planning and financing the program, so they would keep it after the dissolution.

 

[RoadTrip]

Question - I know Zelensky is in Kiev along with the Government, but are there any figures outside the city who could continue the fight if Kiev was fully taken by Russian forces?

It’s a big country with a huge population. Kiev falling would not be the end. But it’d be a significant blow to morale across Ukraine. It’s entirely unreasonable though to think that this ends with Russian occupation with a compliant populace. It’s just too big for that. There will always be resistance, I think. The question over time would be to what extent.

 

[rotherham_red]

Forgive me for saying it but dude, their country is at fecking war. They didn't go to the Chechens, the Chechens came to them. And there's Chechens themselves fighting against the Russians, not for the Russians.

Yes, there are extreme far right types in Ukraine and the country is gonna fecking need them. No country is 100% perfect. Christ.

Ok, so let me get this straight, and just so we're all on the same page, what you're saying is, in war people do terrible things like say, hijack airlines and bomb themselves to kingdom come, but that's all ok as it's during war time?

If the, in your view, legitimate excuse is that "their country is at fecking war" why did the Palestinians ALWAYS get vilified in the second intifada for acts and sentiments that were of a similar pale?

I genuinely can't believe I'm seeing someone in 20 fecking 22 come to the defence of literal Nazis cos "they're on our side". It's galaxy brained thinking like that in the Afghan War in the 80s which caused the likes of Al Qaida and ISIS to rise, you do know that, don't you?

 

[Skåre Willoch]

Just posturing I'd assume. Is their really much need for nukes in Belarus?

No idea, they probably have nukes in Kaliningrad anyway. But it’s a big move nonetheless, maybe more so by Belarus than Russia.

 

[choccy77]

@spectatorindex: BREAKING: The Wall Street Journal reports the Russian ruble was quoted at 110 to 120 to the US Dollar by Russian banks, marking a fall of around 30%

 

[Raoul]

Other reasons that I recently read about Putin's interest in Ukraine, in addition to those most commonly mentioned, are its mineral reserves (Manganese, mercury, gas, iron, titanium) and its agricultural power.
I knew that they produced a lot of cereal but was not aware of how much. In any case, I don't think it´s his main motivation.

This is definitely a secondary piece of his logic of invading and annexing. The Russian economy is fairly reliant on oil and gas. Adding Ukraine would both grow the economy by about 10% and diversify it into particularly agriculture, which would be big given that Ukraine is considered the bread basket of Europe.

 

[stefan92]

I see, I just thought that Moscow/Russia were the ones planning and financing the program, so they would keep it after the dissolution.

Russia kept the parts of the program where the design bureaus were located in Russia, like NPO Energomash who built the rocket engines (and a derivative of the main engine for the Buran program is to this day used in the US-American Atlas space launch vehicle)

 

[Frosty]

It’s a big country with a huge population. Kiev falling would not be the end. But it’d be a significant blow to morale across Ukraine. It’s entirely unreasonable though to think that this ends with Russian occupation with a compliant populace. It’s just too big for that. There will always be resistance, I think. The question over time would be to what extent.

Yep I take your points. What I was trying to get at is, assuming that Zelensky is captured or killed, is there someone else obvious who can step in as leader or figurehead, and if not, does that make resistance less stiff?

 

[alexthelion]

Largely because uncontroversial comments are treated as heresy and you see a group happy to move with it. This is how war tends to go though, so I should know better. I'm done with this thread anyway. I want it to stay on topic and I cannot engage here within the narrow limit defined by so many who have been trained to think "whataboutism" is a legitimate means of argument in a geopolitical debate (absurd). As I'll derail, I'm just going to remove myself.

Hooray.

 

[RoadTrip]

The adjunctive point I would make is that aside from any power-balance fears that may drive his attitude towards Ukranian allegiance on a tactical basis, there also seems doctrine of Russian superiority at play that has little to do with fear of the west. As indicated by portions of his recent speeches, Putin fundamentally doesn't regard Ukraine as a real state. Even if there wasn't geopolitical considerations at play in regards to the west, one suspects that a large degree of contempt for the country and desire to re-establish Russian control over it would still exist.

This very much could be true too. I don’t pretend to know what Putin is thinking. He’s a nutter after all. I would also add though that a lot of what he says is for local consumption (for Russian citizens) than what should be taken literally by the rest of the world. And, I do personally struggle with the view that he has invaded solely because he doesn’t think Ukraine is legitimate / ego trip to make Russia superior again. But could also very plausibly be true - if not in its entirety, a key piece to the puzzle in any case. To my mind though, the tipping point was that Ukraine was moving away from Russia and towards NATO and the west. I genuinely believe this doesn’t happen if Ukraine was aligned to Russia, or even if they were indifferent to both the West and Russia. But it’s all conjecture, I got no idea if I’m right.

 

[Bepi]

Which is basically what I’m saying, isn’t it? Ukraine is the poor country in the middle. But really this is, as you say, about the core principal of Russia vs the EU and expanding / protecting their way of life. Ukraine is the unfortunate battleground this is being played out in. Thanks to a madman on Moscow.

Yeah, that’s why the narrow opportunity tomorrow talks in Belarus can offer both parties needs to be pursued in full for defusion and a way out of this run… how? I don’t know, luckily I’m not the one to draw lines on a map.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

Russia kept the parts of the program where the design bureaus were located in Russia, like NPO Energomash who built the rocket engines (and a derivative of the main engine for the Buran program is to this day used in the US-American Atlas space launch vehicle)

I see, makes sense. Cheers.

 

[RoadTrip]

Yep I take your points. What I was trying to get at is, assuming that Zelensky is captured or killed, is there someone else obvious who can step in as leader or figurehead, and if not, does that make resistance less stiff?

That I cannot answer with any accuracy. Sorry!

 

[berbatrick]

I see, I just thought that Moscow/Russia were the ones planning and financing the program, so they would keep it after the dissolution.

Not 100% sure, but the space shuttle and aviation in general would probably have been under central leadership, not individual republics. And financed by the union as a whole too. So they ended up splitting by geography after 1991.
I think, for the same reasons, air force planes were also split among the republics after the collapse of the ussr.

 

[RoadTrip]

Yeah, that’s why the narrow opportunity tomorrow talks in Belarus can offer both parties needs to be pursued in full for defusion and a way out of this run… how? I don’t know, luckily I’m not the one to draw lines on a map.

I don’t know what happened diplomatically before this but the reality is now it’s very very very difficult to find a peaceful solution. Ego is at stake now. No way Russia or the west back down if they can’t convince their own citizens they “won”. Which means finding that middle ground where both can reasonably sell victory to their people becomes slimmer and slimmer every day this thing escalates. I’m far too dumb to have any idea what that middle ground might be. Thank feck I’m not at that table!

 

[the_cliff]

Still not possible. Financial markets are a hugely complex ecosystem. You can’t just stop using a currency. To finance, to invest, you do all of this through financial centres and to access those centres you need dollars. For countries to stop using dollars they’d not only need to establish an alternative currency to take its place, they’d need to effectively create a new financial hub and not only that, convince global investors to use that financial hub and their alternative currency.

I know, let me ask it in a different way.

If any country wants to buy oil, you need to buy dollars. Because you can only buy oil in dollars. Hence the petro dollar, which is one of the reasons why the dollar is always a strong currency because it's propped up by petrol.

Now let's say Russia, China, Nigeria (who have recently declined to increase production) and Saudi (who have also recently declined to increase production) decide to open a new market in Yuan for example, or Rubles or whatever and decline to sell in USD, what would that do to the economy and the USD in particular.

I just find it extremely coincidental that Putin has decided to go ahead despite being banned from swift and being sanctioned to oblivion and all of these opec+ nations refusing to pump more oil and refusing to condemn Russia.

EDIT: To add a bit more coincidence to the mix, both Nigeria and Saudi have recently signed military agreements with Russia (within the last year).

 

[Rightnr]

Yep I take your points. What I was trying to get at is, assuming that Zelensky is captured or killed, is there someone else obvious who can step in as leader or figurehead, and if not, does that make resistance less stiff?

I think even though Russia might kill him, he's smart enough to know it's better to run and re-establish a base of operations in Lviv where he is that much closer to the EU supply lines.

Morale would take a hit from losing Kyiv but it's better than losing the head of government and giving Putin an excuse to install his people and close the border. It's all about timing it well and ensuring that balance of not seeming to be a coward but also smart enough to bail when it's time.

And frankly, Kyiv is in an awful place for defending, it's virtually on the border with Belarus.

 

[RoadTrip]

I know, let me ask it in a different way.

If any country wants to buy oil, you need to buy dollars. Because you can only buy oil in dollars. Hence the petro dollar, which is one of the reasons why the dollar is always a strong currency because it's propped up by petrol.

Now let's say Russia, China, Nigeria (who have recently declined to increase production) and Saudi (who have also recently declined to increase production) decide to open a new market in Yuan for example, or Rubles or whatever and decline to sell in USD, what would that do to the economy ?

I get it - but what I’m saying is that’ll never realistically happen because the people they need to sell that oil too can’t and won’t just immediately be able to switch the way they finance themselves to Yuan.

So it would obviously cause economic turmoil for everyone. But, why would they ever want to do that? Just shooting themselves.

 

[caid]

I just made a post above. I’m not jumping to his defence but Putin very clearly has a general fear of the west and he clearly thinks they want to make Russia irrelevant. To be clear not saying that’s the case in reality, but it’s foolish to suggest he doesn’t believe it. So, the point I’m making is I very much understand WHY he wants Ukraine in his pocket. And why he is doing what he is doing.That’s different to saying it’s based on real facts. And in any case, as I said above, that in no way gives him any right to invade them. Fighting for their allegiance through diplomatic channels is one thing - and frankly no different to what any country does. But invading them for it? That’s obviously not acceptable and he’s rightly getting condemned for it.

Hes not much of a diplomat. Maybe hes gotten bored of trying and is reverting to his usual MO and daring someone to stop him.

The NATO reason is not as important as some of you make out to try and justify Russia’s actions.

this is all on Putin. His statements about removing nazis, removing weapons and not recognizing ukraine as a sovereign country say more about his prejudices, his insanity than it does any worries about NATO. He’s literally making up reasons to go to war. His reasons aren’t consistent. So let’s stop pretending it’s about NATO when clearly it’s not. This is about a madman in power, who’s trying to bully others into living in the past like him.

I think theres a fair bit of theatricality in his recent appearances basically as a way of selling the threats he's making. They're crazy threats in their own right but only a total fecking lunatic completely detached from reality would actually go through with them. I've decided im not buying it anyway. Even a psychopath wouldn't gain anything from being the first to press the button.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

Not 100% sure, but the space shuttle and aviation in general would probably have been under central leadership, not individual republics. And financed by the union as a whole too. So they ended up splitting by geography after 1991.
I think, for the same reasons, air force planes were also split among the republics after the collapse of the ussr.

Right, I see. It's quite interesting, how everything must have been divided and split up after the dissolution. So many Submarines, planes, space shuttles, ships satellites etc, who got what depending on where it was made like you say.

 

[the_cliff]

I get it - but what I’m saying is that’ll never realistically happen because the people they need to sell that oil too can’t and won’t just immediately be able to switch the way they finance themselves to Yuan.

So it would obviously cause economic turmoil for everyone. But, why would they ever want to do that? Just shooting themselves.

Agreed,
I just find it extremely coincidental that Putin has decided to go ahead despite being banned from swift and being sanctioned to oblivion and all of these opec+ nations refusing to pump more oil and refusing to condemn Russia.

EDIT: To add a bit more coincidence to the mix, both Nigeria and Saudi have recently signed military agreements with Russia (within the last year) and trade with China has more than doubled since 2016.

 

[2mufc0]

Ok, so let me get this straight, and just so we're all on the same page, what you're saying is, in war people do terrible things like say, hijack airlines and bomb themselves to kingdom come, but that's all ok as it's during war time?

If the, in your view, legitimate excuse is that "their country is at fecking war" why did the Palestinians ALWAYS get vilified in the second intifada for acts and sentiments that were of a similar pale?

I genuinely can't believe I'm seeing someone in 20 fecking 22 come to the defence of literal Nazis cos "they're on our side". It's galaxy brained thinking like that in the Afghan War in the 80s which caused the likes of Al Qaida and ISIS to rise, you do know that, don't you?

Looks like he/she has now edited the original post so it doesn't come accross as batsh!t as before, but still...

Basically do whatever the feck you like as long as you're on the right team.

 

[stefan92]

Right, I see. It's quite interesting, how everything must have been divided and split up after the dissolution. So many Submarines, planes, space shuttles, ships satellites etc, who got what depending on where it was made like you say.

After the SU split up, Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the world. But they agreed to give their nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for some security guarantees: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

 

[VorZakone]

Yep I take your points. What I was trying to get at is, assuming that Zelensky is captured or killed, is there someone else obvious who can step in as leader or figurehead, and if not, does that make resistance less stiff?

Maybe Poroshenko. He's been giving CNN interviews and is a former president so knows the job. How that affects resistance, I don't know.

 

[noodlehair]

Of course not but thermobaric bombs would show an escalation. At one point Putin will get bored and could decide to bring the big boys weapons.
Obviously the troops he sent were so far not prepared properly but he could destroy Ukraine without setting a foot on their soil even without any nukes. I'm not saying he will but he might want to show a display of strength before starting any negociation.

Personally more worried that sending so many arms in to help fight Putin might just turn every civilian into a target as far as the Russian forces are concerned. I don't really see what it will achieve other than death as this isn't a war Ukraine can win on their own, regardless of the spin people want to put on it. They don't have the manpower to push Putin back into Russia

Thermobaric bombs aren't really something it would make sense to deploy at this point, unless there was a very specific and vital target and it was the only way to get to it.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Massive Kiss fan apparently

 

[UnofficialDevil]

After the SU split up, Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the world. But they agreed to give their nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for some security guarantees: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Looks like Russia are in breach of that memorandum right now, and the UK also signed that. Ukraine had the third most nuclear missiles in the world, but no power or means to use them, apparently.

 

[Asger]

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[VorZakone]

Personally more worried that sending so many arms in to help fight Putin might just turn every civilian into a target as far as the Russian forces are concerned. I don't really see what it will achieve other than death as this isn't a war Ukraine can win on their own, regardless of the spin people want to put on it. They don't have the manpower to push Putin back into Russia

Thermobaric bombs aren't really something it would make sense to deploy at this point, unless there was a very specific and vital target and it was the only way to get to it.

What would you propose? I'm not saying you're right or wrong by the way. Just wanna know what you would do if you were the Western decision-makers.

 

[Rightnr]

There's some NSFW content in the below but I find it a fascinating piece of historical propaganda.

 

[VorZakone]

There's some NSFW content in the below but I find it a fascinating piece of

I think clips with dead bodies are not allowed. I posted this myself too before I immediately realized it and deleted the post.

 

[Rightnr]

I think clips with dead bodies are not allowed. I posted this myself too before I immediately realized it and deleted the post.

Ok, I deleted it but you might need go requote me.

I barely even noticed, it's just the language used is fascinating in a marketing context.

 

[rotherham_red]

Looks like he/she has now edited the original post so it doesn't come accross as batsh!t as before, but still...

Basically do whatever the feck you like as long as you're on the right team.

Someone really should report it. Awful post.

 

[Cheimoon]

Good post

I don't agree. Or rather: @WI_Red may have meant his post literally, but most times a post is called off-topic or an unwelcome distraction in this thread, it's really because of the opinion expressed. Cause after all, there are really loads of side conversations happening that do not at all discuss what is happening in the war right now.

I mean, we have dozens of posts now about Zelensky's activities in entertainment, which have no bearing on current events; but no-one asked for those to stop. Yet we can't have posts that try to contextualize how the 'western' audience (regular people and the media, not politicians) obsesses over the situation?

To be clear: I don't agree with everything that's being said, but I find myself obsessing over this war as well, and I find those context discussions quite interesting, also when I think the argument provided is rubbish. And certainly much more interesting than the feelgood stuff about Zelensky (as much as I enjoy those) or the fifteenth post in four pages pointing out that there is a Russia army convoy underway to Kyiv.

(Great post by @dumbo btw. I mean the one ending with the matchday thread comment.)

On a related note, I think the treatment of @Mciahel Goodman (and a few others with related points) in this thread has been rather distasteful. I guess he has to be able to accept more grief cause he is a mod (and maybe because of his positions); cause if this would have been another poster in another thread, I would hope there would have been some warnings for the constant ad hominem he's getting.

 

[MuFc_1992]

The most obvious reason for Russia invading seems to be oil and gas as usual and the whole Nato expansion is just an excuse because it Putin can't just outright say that Ukraine's recent discovery of huge reserves of gas will practically remove Europe's dependency on Russian oil and gas and will make Russia irrelevant as a world superpower.