The chase for 4th place (not top 4)

Dave Smith said:
Good post.

There are a couple of things you say that do have answers however.

1. Arsenal get underrated due to how you've performed over the last ten and especially five years'. Saying no one appreciates your form/players in largely down to this as you've bottled a lot of games consistently in that time.

2. Catching Chelsea, or getting near them is an ask. For instance, the next two games for both Clubs are; Chelsea, Norwich and Newcastle; Arsenal, Leicester and the Dippers. On top of this Chelsea still have a lot of games against the weakest teams in the league. This is also before we touch on how the Dippers have torn you apart consistently for years now.

That said, there is a good degree of truth to your post. Arsenal are in a good position and your form is very good. If you do beat Leicester and then, let's say get a draw against the Dippers', whilst Utd and Spurs draw, then the debate for 4th place will swing heavily to Arsenal as you'll be in quite a commanding position. Not enough to catch Chelsea, but that position should make it one where only a collapse would prevent you from 4th.

Personally, I have you down for 1 point from your next six. This however, is to do with your recent history, rather than your current form.
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Unless they get incredibly lucky at some point they will suffer the average number of absences through injury which is circa 4-5 rather than the 2 that they have currently

https://www.premierinjuries.com/injury-table.php

The current form in the league is v good of that there is no doubt( not so great if you include all competitions post 1/1) but at some point again the wins by the odd goal will turn into a draw or even a loss.

I think they will get another 16 points at most interesting enough I think that will be the same number as Utd
 
terraloo said:
Unless they get incredibly lucky at some point they will suffer the average number of absences through injury which is circa 4-5 rather than the 2 that they have currently

https://www.premierinjuries.com/injury-table.php

The current form in the league is v good of that there is no doubt( not so great if you include all competitions post 1/1) but at some point again the wins by the odd goal will turn into a draw or even a loss.

I think they will get another 16 points at most interesting enough I think that will be the same number as Utd
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On injuries, I agree it could catch up, but we've had our fair share of injuries during the season. But, that is a big risk for us.

Disagree on that odd goal comment. We dominated really against Wolves, Brentford, Watford. All games we should, and did win. Yes it was by 1 goal, but it's not the case of playing badly but then scraping a win.

As for points, this is what I had a few days ago, which would take us to 68 points (I think enough to get top 4). And honestly I think it's a bit conservative, not sure we'll lose all 3 big games, or draw all our away games (I think we can win a couple).

WAT (A) - 3
LEI (H) - 3
LIV (H) - 0
AVL (A) - 1
CRY (A) - 1
BHA (H) - 3
SOU (A) - 1
MUN (H) - 3
WHU (A) - 1
LEE (H) - 3
NEW (A) - 1
EVE (H) - 3
TOT (A) - 0
CHE (A) - 0
 
Dave Smith said:
Good post.

There are a couple of things you say that do have answers however.

1. Arsenal get underrated due to how you've performed over the last ten and especially five years'. Saying no one appreciates your form/players in largely down to this as you've bottled a lot of games consistently in that time.

2. Catching Chelsea, or getting near them is an ask. For instance, the next two games for both Clubs are; Chelsea, Norwich and Newcastle; Arsenal, Leicester and the Dippers. On top of this Chelsea still have a lot of games against the weakest teams in the league. This is also before we touch on how the Dippers have torn you apart consistently for years now.

That said, there is a good degree of truth to your post. Arsenal are in a good position and your form is very good. If you do beat Leicester and then, let's say get a draw against the Dippers', whilst Utd and Spurs draw, then the debate for 4th place will swing heavily to Arsenal as you'll be in quite a commanding position. Not enough to catch Chelsea, but that position should make it one where only a collapse would prevent you from 4th.

Personally, I have you down for 1 point from your next six. This however, is to do with your recent history, rather than your current form.
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I don't know man. We've been atrocious these past two seasons, but still in this time won more trophies than our competitors. I'd argue United and Spurs have bottled it moreso than Arsenal. You make a good point though.

Chelsea are European champions and a very talented team, but statistically we've been better than them for a few months now and I still think there's problems there with Lukaku behind the scenes.

Never want to be overconfident, especially in football, but the top four race seems to be over now. Maybe if Spurs win tonight they could put up a challenge but that seems unlikely given their recent form. Arsenal should be aiming for third based on their overrall trajectory in the last 12 months.
 
MO_Football92 said:
I don't know man. We've been atrocious these past two seasons, but still in this time won more trophies than our competitors. I'd argue United and Spurs have bottled it moreso than Arsenal. You make a good point though.

Chelsea are European champions and a very talented team, but statistically we've been better than them for a few months now and I still think there's problems there with Lukaku behind the scenes.

Never want to be overconfident, especially in football, but the top four race seems to be over now. Maybe if Spurs win tonight they could put up a challenge but that seems unlikely given their recent form. Arsenal should be aiming for third based on their overrall trajectory in the last 12 months.
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I honestly don't think you'll catch Chelsea. They're currently on a 3 game win streak and have a soft run in; I mean just look at their next 5 games, it is easy to see them getting 15/15.

They were indifferent during Nov-Jan but they did have some issues in that they did lose both their wingbacks, never got a Covid postponement and had League Cup and CWC commitments in that time. Additionally, if you look at their run in past the next five, it is still probably the easiest of all the teams in the top six (barring City), owing to most of their difficult ties being at home. I honestly think they'll finish strong as they always seem to do; whilst I think that the Lukaku penny has dropped so I don't see him starting and giving everyone a chance anymore.

As I said, Arsenal are in a strong position but it is recent history that everyone is focusing on (which is understable.) If you get 6 points from your next two games, or even 4, then I will have you certs for 4th; although not sure about 3rd simply due to Chelsea's run in.
 
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Devil’s Trident said:
I know mate I have posted the same shit multiple times so that everyone hears it :D .Now that you have quoted me I’m at peace knowing fully well that it’s noted and duly acknowledged. Just repeating myself over and over again either to get mocked out of oblivion from posters like you or to get the rewards of gloating non stop on caf. I’m that sure. Let’s see then.
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Although I think (and hope) you’ll be proven wrong about the points you’ve made… I really respect the total clarity of the position you’ve stated.
 
Nish115 said:
On injuries, I agree it could catch up, but we've had our fair share of injuries during the season. But, that is a big risk for us.

Disagree on that odd goal comment. We dominated really against Wolves, Brentford, Watford. All games we should, and did win. Yes it was by 1 goal, but it's not the case of playing badly but then scraping a win.

As for points, this is what I had a few days ago, which would take us to 68 points (I think enough to get top 4). And honestly I think it's a bit conservative, not sure we'll lose all 3 big games, or draw all our away games (I think we can win a couple).

WAT (A) - 3
LEI (H) - 3
LIV (H) - 0
AVL (A) - 1
CRY (A) - 1
BHA (H) - 3
SOU (A) - 1
MUN (H) - 3
WHU (A) - 1
LEE (H) - 3
NEW (A) - 1
EVE (H) - 3
TOT (A) - 0
CHE (A) - 0
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Villa, Palace,Saints, WHU will probably be far more difficult than predicted although I can see yo winning one of them

But I think you are going to drop points against Utd and Brighton and strangely Leicester.

Hey if football was easy to predic I would be a millionare
 
GoonerInPeace said:
To be honest. People have been assuming we will drop silly points for a while and it hasn't come to fruition. We are on a four game winning streak and lost only once this calendar year and that was to City who were lucky. That home performance against City ignited something in this Arsenal team.

I keep hearing from United fans how you have so much quality. Bruno and Ronaldo keep getting highlighted as these amazing players who will guide Man United home. But I dont think Ronaldo cares about finishing 4th, where as our young players many of which have not played in the CL are eager to finish 4th.

No one is appreciating the week to week quality of Martinelli, Saka, ESR and Odegaard. We keep being underrated and looked over. Even though we have played ourselves into a commanding position the pundit class still prefer United, and for some reason, Spurs, over Arsenal in the race for 4th.

You say we will drop points against both Leicester and Liverpool. Well we may, but with the way we are playing it wouldn't surprise me if beat Leicester (winning at home to Liescter wouldn't be a surprise), but Im backing ourselves to throw a spanner in Liverpool's season and get the home win. Were playing with confidence and winning week to week. Sure we will drop points, but will it be as many as you think? And to make another point. whilst Arsenal may drop points, what makes Tottenham and United fans think they can take advantage? I have always felt 4th would be a dog fight, but the last months run of results by United and Spurs have got me thinking we could pull away and get closer to Chelsea, than united and Spurs are to Arsenal.

Naturally im hoping for a draw between you and Spurs this week. But I think the loser of this match is out the race for 4th as its one thing to have one team to catch, but two teams is too much
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The points dropping this is a good point. And even if you do drop points, United and Spurs wont take advantage. They havent been doing so far so theres nothing to say they will suddenly do so. Arsenal are ahead of United with three games in hand. And a home game against United

Arsenal are beating the lower level teams whilst united and spurs are struggling with those.
And Arsenal have a 6 point gap over Spurs.

There are ten games left for United which will include Spurs and Chelsea at home, and Liverpool and Arsenal away (and a CL game home match, which could become two more).
United probably have to take at least 7 outta the 12 points available from bove imo (one having to be a win at arsenal) and nothing suggests this is happening. And win maybe 5 of the other 6 given Arsenals consistency.

Uniteds top four ambitions were dented severely with two points, not sacking Ole earlier and the period where we lost to Wolves, drew with Newcastle, Villa, Burnley and Southampton. (and we were winning most of those games we drew)
 
We won't get 3rd, Chelsea have too good a run-in tbh.
terraloo said:
Villa, Palace,Saints, WHU will probably be far more difficult than predicted although I can see yo winning one of them

But I think you are going to drop points against Utd and Brighton and strangely Leicester.

Hey if football was easy to predic I would be a millionare
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They will be, hence why I said 5 points out of those 8 games, which is achievable.

I mean maybe, but Brighton and Leicester haven't got much to play for tbh, and haven't been playing well at all recently. United have been poor. We also have the 3rd best home form in the league, very close to Liverpool.
 
GoonerInPeace said:
To be honest. People have been assuming we will drop silly points for a while and it hasn't come to fruition. We are on a four game winning streak and lost only once this calendar year and that was to City who were lucky. That home performance against City ignited something in this Arsenal team.

I keep hearing from United fans how you have so much quality. Bruno and Ronaldo keep getting highlighted as these amazing players who will guide Man United home. But I dont think Ronaldo cares about finishing 4th, where as our young players many of which have not played in the CL are eager to finish 4th.

No one is appreciating the week to week quality of Martinelli, Saka, ESR and Odegaard. We keep being underrated and looked over. Even though we have played ourselves into a commanding position the pundit class still prefer United, and for some reason, Spurs, over Arsenal in the race for 4th.

You say we will drop points against both Leicester and Liverpool. Well we may, but with the way we are playing it wouldn't surprise me if beat Leicester (winning at home to Liescter wouldn't be a surprise), but Im backing ourselves to throw a spanner in Liverpool's season and get the home win. Were playing with confidence and winning week to week. Sure we will drop points, but will it be as many as you think? And to make another point. whilst Arsenal may drop points, what makes Tottenham and United fans think they can take advantage? I have always felt 4th would be a dog fight, but the last months run of results by United and Spurs have got me thinking we could pull away and get closer to Chelsea, than united and Spurs are to Arsenal.

Naturally im hoping for a draw between you and Spurs this week. But I think the loser of this match is out the race for 4th as its one thing to have one team to catch, but two teams is too much
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I've been sold on this seasons Arsenal for a few months now TBH. I had you as favourites for 4th around December time, but then thought you'd blown your chances by not signing anyone in January. However, with the comfortable fixture scheduling you've had it hasn't really affected you at all as of yet. I don't see you messing it up now. United don't deserve to be there. I honestly hope (though it won't happen) that we finish outside the European places altogether. It's a great opportunity to thin a squad and reset as we've seen from Arsenal.

My biggest gripe is my Arsenal supporting mates who I haven't heard a peep out of for years are suddenly trying to 'banter' me on text all the time. If they weren't my mates I'd block them.
 
GoonerBear said:
I quoted you earlier as well. Of course Arsenal will drop points, they aren't a good enough team not to, but neither are Utd & Spurs.

Do you think they are capable of winning 6 games out of 13?
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Ofcourse spurs and united aren’t good enough sides either. As for Arsenal, yes they are capable of winning 6 out of 13. But I think you ain’t getting more than 20 points probably out of possible 39. My prediction is even less. I might be wildly wrong , only time would tell.
 
Arsenal have got the momentum and young hungry players doing well. I can't see them faltering too much like before.

United need a very strong end to the season just to stand a chance and I think we'll have more heads dropping and arguing looking at that second half at City. We could see a collapse like we saw at the end of Ole's first season. Even Spurs could edge out United. All those draws to bottom teams has killed United's chances, the goals have dried up. We need big help from Cavani and Ronaldo has to find freshness and form somehow.

4th place is usually a calamity run but I don't see Arsenal dropping into the clutches or Spurs or United. If Arsenal end up with 70+ points it's well deserved by Arteta and the young players. The only thing I could see potentially is all these games in hand being played in quick succession, I've not looked at the dates, I was surprised they weren't playing an extra game in the last week or so.
 
GoonerInPeace said:
To be honest. People have been assuming we will drop silly points for a while and it hasn't come to fruition. We are on a four game winning streak and lost only once this calendar year and that was to City who were lucky. That home performance against City ignited something in this Arsenal team.

I keep hearing from United fans how you have so much quality. Bruno and Ronaldo keep getting highlighted as these amazing players who will guide Man United home. But I dont think Ronaldo cares about finishing 4th, where as our young players many of which have not played in the CL are eager to finish 4th.

No one is appreciating the week to week quality of Martinelli, Saka, ESR and Odegaard. We keep being underrated and looked over. Even though we have played ourselves into a commanding position the pundit class still prefer United, and for some reason, Spurs, over Arsenal in the race for 4th.
You say we will drop points against both Leicester and Liverpool. Well we may, but with the way we are playing it wouldn't surprise me if beat Leicester (winning at home to Liescter wouldn't be a surprise), but Im backing ourselves to throw a spanner in Liverpool's season and get the home win. Were playing with confidence and winning week to week. Sure we will drop points, but will it be as many as you think? And to make another point. whilst Arsenal may drop points, what makes Tottenham and United fans think they can take advantage? I have always felt 4th would be e a dog fight, but the last months run of results by United and Spurs have got me thinking we could pull away and get closer to Chelsea, than united and Spurs are to Arsenal.

Naturally im hoping for a draw between you and Spurs this week. But I think the loser of this match is out the race for 4th as its one thing to have one team to catch, but two teams is too much
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Yep, you can beat Leicester but you can also lose or draw. I’m not hinging all my bets on them tbh. I included Leicester because it’s a start of potential run in where I can see you drop 8-10 points in the next 6 games. And yes I see you dropping that many points. You are within rights to laugh about that prediction I can understand that. As for Liverpool, nah you ain’t getting anything from that game. Regarding Spurs and united, if you get more than 20 points out of possible 39 nobody is catching you. We both are terrible atm. Anybody gets around 68 points is getting 4th I reckon.

And dont get me wrong, I’m not dissing Arsenal, you guys have done very well this year specially the 2 wins v wolves impressed me but I’m far from convinced. I think you are punching well above your weight , are extremely clinical right now and winning potential banana skin fixtures. I’m not sure of your defence either, any team that attacks you puts you in trouble, wolves are a good side but too defensive who you duly dispatched but the likes of Leicester ,Villa, Brighton, Southampton are not, even palace. And against Man Utd , West Ham , Chelsea , spurs I can see you losing or drawing a lot. Only time will tell. Let’s see.
 
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Never thought I'd say this about a club the size of Arsenal but it'll be so weird to watch them in the CL again.
 
United have a horror show of a run in. Arsenal will get 4th and United will finish 7th this season IMO.
 
Utd heap said:
Arsenal chaps in here seem proper excited by this top 4 shite.
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Of course they are, and any United fan pretending they don't care about it is lying to themselves. I don't think failure to reach it will impact our chances of signing quality players, but it will probably affect the budget and we need a good summer. I can't decide whether I'd like us to stay out of Europe altogether though. As much as I hate Europa it's a good chance of a trophy and more fixtures for our manager to put his ideas across, and see some fringe players.

As for Arsenal it could go either way. They could bomb out of the group stage, and struggle with the extra fixtures, but there's no way it isn't great for them to be back in the competition.
 
Bilbo said:
Of course they are, and any United fan pretending they don't care about it is lying to themselves.
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I want Utd to finish as high up the league as possible, the only other thing I care about is Liverpool not winning it.

Top 4 is not a prize, I'd just rather be in it than not. Teams seeing it as a success is part of the reason Utd and Arsenal are where they are compared to the year 2000.
 
Spurs are the only threat to Arsenal breezing it.

Ensuring we finish 6th and hopefully a Europa spot to go with it is important now.
 
Leftback99 said:
Spurs are the only threat to Arsenal breezing it.

Ensuring we finish 6th and hopefully a Europa spot to go with it is important now.
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Said a few times, Spurs will push right to the end, it'll be tight. Could come down to the NLD tbh
 
Utd players are already “on the beach”.

With half the team ready to jump ship, why the feck would they want to give that extra 10%.

Pogba, Lingard, Cavani, Ronaldo, Bailly, AWB, will all be gone.

big question marks over, Rashford , Maguire, Dalot, Martial, Greenwood

And the players Who just aren’t good enough, Mctomminy, Fred, Telles, Mata.

Add to that, no manager, crap owners and a ground that’s falling apart!


This club is in its worse position since 1986-87. The era when those fecking scousers were top dogs. It’s like going back in time!
 
WeePat said:
Never thought I'd say this about a club the size of Arsenal but it'll be so weird to watch them in the CL again.
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Their stadium is big. Their history is big. But in terms of the modern game they are equivalent now to Moyes peak Everton. Unless there’s a drastic change, them being a giant in English football won’t return anytime soon. So yes seeing them in the CL will be as weird as the time Everton got there.
 
Devil’s Trident said:
Ofcourse spurs and united aren’t good enough sides either. As for Arsenal, yes they are capable of winning 6 out of 13. But I think you ain’t getting more than 20 points probably out of possible 39. My prediction is even less. I might be wildly wrong , only time would tell.
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I was going to say that even just getting 20 points would take us to 68 points and that would be enough for a top 4 place, but you mention that in a later post.

We are currently on 1.92 points per game over 25 games. So even if we drop to 1.5 points per game over the last 13 games that should be enough.

SirReginald said:
Their stadium is big. Their history is big. But in terms of the modern game they are equivalent now to Moyes peak Everton. Unless there’s a drastic change, them being a giant in English football won’t return anytime soon. So yes seeing them in the CL will be as weird as the time Everton got there.
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Guess we just hope we win the owners lottery like yourselves did then?!
 
SirReginald said:
Their stadium is big. Their history is big. But in terms of the modern game they are equivalent now to Moyes peak Everton. Unless there’s a drastic change, them being a giant in English football won’t return anytime soon. So yes seeing them in the CL will be as weird as the time Everton got there.
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That is the reality for clubs like Arsenal and Spurs given their wage budget being 5th and 6th in EPL.

https://www.spotrac.com/epl/payroll/
https://www.sportingfree.com/football/premier-league-clubs-wage-bills/
 
SirReginald said:
Their stadium is big. Their history is big. But in terms of the modern game they are equivalent now to Moyes peak Everton. Unless there’s a drastic change, them being a giant in English football won’t return anytime soon. So yes seeing them in the CL will be as weird as the time Everton got there.
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I hate to break it to you but with Roman gone and new owners that care about their money, Chelsea isn't going to be in any better position in the medium to long term. You'll have revenues similar to Arsenal and Spurs, maybe less if the new owners aren't willing to invest a billion pounds into the stadium.
 
SirReginald said:
Their stadium is big. Their history is big. But in terms of the modern game they are equivalent now to Moyes peak Everton. Unless there’s a drastic change, them being a giant in English football won’t return anytime soon. So yes seeing them in the CL will be as weird as the time Everton got there.
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4 cups in the last 8 years is pretty ok for a small time club.

Look forward to your racist shithole going back to square one, mind.
 
I still think United will turn it around, they have more leaders in their team. We don't even have a proper captain in the squad, and that plays a key part in winning games when it gets tough.
 
Mogget said:
I still think United will turn it around, they have more leaders in their team. We don't even have a proper captain in the squad, and that plays a key part in winning games when it gets tough.
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Have you seen United play lately? I don’t think we have a single leader in the squad, never mind someone who can really drive a team forward a la Roy Keane/Brian Robson of old. God, do we miss players of their calibre! That’s without even mentioning the fact most of this squad couldn’t care less and worry more about their PR and bank balance. Shocking situation to be in.
 
I have supported United all my life and went to my first OT game in 1967. Regardless of success or failure I have never seen a United squad so lacking in passion and effort, I am sure RR must be shocked at the state of everything he has found and must be regretting coming anywhere near this poisoned chalice. This squad shows no desire whatsoever to get 4th, and are certainly not deserving of it, regardless of what happens in the rest of the season. Remember being 2.0 down in Turin in 98/99 and Roy Keane driving the whole team on to an historic victory? Somehow can’t see any current player being that arsed these days!!!
 
Mogget said:
I still think United will turn it around, they have more leaders in their team. We don't even have a proper captain in the squad, and that plays a key part in winning games when it gets tough.
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United have an idiot who is completely out of form as captain. Not having a captain would still be an advantage over them.
 
SirReginald said:
Their stadium is big. Their history is big. But in terms of the modern game they are equivalent now to Moyes peak Everton
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So when did this so called modern game start then? I'm guessing sometime after 2005?

I know some people think football started in 1992 with the foundations of the premier league but now we can't even count anything even a decade later. Not many clubs are that relevant if we use that criteria.
 
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MalBot said:
So when did this so called modern game start then? I'm guessing sometime after 2005?

I know some people think football started in 1992 with the foundations of the premier league but now we can't even count anything even a decade later. Not many clubs are that relevant if we use that criteria.
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Wouldn't bother giving a WUM the courtesy of a response, mate
 
Mogget said:
I still think United will turn it around, they have more leaders in their team. We don't even have a proper captain in the squad, and that plays a key part in winning games when it gets tough.
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We're really bad. But even if we miraculously turned it around, with the games in hand you have, I expect you'd still finish ahead of us.

Spurs are your main threat, especially now that they can get a week's training with Conte in between each Premier League game. His Chelsea were a winning machine in the absence of European distraction.
 
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