Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

TheReligion

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I didn't say NATO should attack Russia in Ukraine, and I've not questioned the difference between that and arming the Ukranians, there's no need for the attitude.
No attitude, just can’t follow what point you’re getting at. Doesn’t add up.
 

GlastonSpur

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It would be because most of the wealth comes from the south east and is currently occupied by Russia.
Temporarily occupied by Russia. They'd have to permanently keep very large numbers of troops there in order to keep it permanently. They don't have the military resources to do that without being severely weakened elsewhere.
 

Rams

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It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.:nervous::mad:
I find it very hard to believe China would even remotely consider sending Chinese troops to Ukraine. The Chinese powers to be would even be very cautious to send any sort of military aid and there will be a lot of division in China itself with regards to Ukraine. Russia & China is very much a marriage of convenience.
 

Rams

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Temporarily occupied by Russia. They'd have to permanently keep very large numbers of troops there in order to keep it permanently. They don't have the military resources to do that without being severely weakened elsewhere.
They’d need to do quite a bit of ethnic cleansing in order to realistically get those Ukraine regions under any sort of control
 

GlastonSpur

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I find it very hard to believe China would even remotely consider sending Chinese troops to Ukraine. The Chinese powers to be would even be very cautious to send any sort of military aid and there will be a lot of division in China itself with regards to Ukraine. Russia & China is very much a marriage of convenience.
I can't see it either. All the more so if America whispers in the Chinese ear: "you send troops to Ukraine, we send troops to Taiwan."
 

Rightnr

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It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.:nervous::mad:
No way they'll send official Chinese troops. They might want to beta test their weapons and given what happens with some construction projects in China, this might lead to a lot of 'fodder death'. Perfect for Russia and China - Putin doesn't give a flying feck about his people and China have free non-Chinese guinea pigs.

Depressing to even write it out like that but that's what I'd envision might happen.
 

Rightnr

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I'm pretty sure China has figured out that if NATO won't send troops to Ukraine there is no way they are sending them to Taiwan
I think the arithmetic is slightly different, especially if China starts supplying weapons to an outright enemy.

This is not status quo of the pre-Beijing Olympics.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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No way they'll send official Chinese troops. They might want to beta test their weapons and given what happens with some construction projects in China, this might lead to a lot of 'fodder death'. Perfect for Russia and China - Putin doesn't give a flying feck about his people and China have free non-Chinese guinea pigs.

Depressing to even write it out like that but that's what I'd envision might happen.
It is depressing. No matter the course of events to come, plenty of reasons to be worried with any potential Chinese involvement.
 
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GlastonSpur

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I'm pretty sure China has figured out that if NATO won't send troops to Ukraine there is no way they are sending them to Taiwan
I'm pretty sure they haven't - not if Chinese troops were to be sent to participate in an invasion of a European country.
 

GlastonSpur

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No way they'll send official Chinese troops. They might want to beta test their weapons and given what happens with some construction projects in China, this might lead to a lot of 'fodder death'. Perfect for Russia and China - Putin doesn't give a flying feck about his people and China have free non-Chinese guinea pigs.

Depressing to even write it out like that but that's what I'd envision might happen.
What could China supply that the Russians don't already have? The key problem for Russia in Ukraine is that they can't take the capital, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't conquer and annexe the whole of Ukraine... because they don't have the troops to do this. I don't see any equipment that China could supply that would change this.
 

The Corinthian

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https://www.infomigrants.net/en/pos...us-bangladeshi-migrants-stuck-in-ukraine-urge

Ahmed said he and another Bangladeshi citizen named Jahirul Islam are among nine migrants forced to stay in the center even after the war started more than a week ago. He also claimed that police had beaten them up when they tried to leave the camp last week to flee to Poland.
Over a hundred migrants stay with Ukrainian soldiers
In the Ukrainian town of Kivertsi, around a hundred migrants are staying at another detention center which was converted to a military base recently, according to Bangladeshi and Indian citizens who are detained there.

"Russia has been particularly bombing military bases. That’s why we have been living in constant fear of getting bombed. They have confined us here," Riadh Malik, a Bangladeshi migrant told InfoMigrants, adding: "We are among over a hundred migrants from countries including India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Arab countries."

"Women and children are also staying at the camp," he added.
Ukrainian authorities are keeping foreign nationals in military bases and with the soldiers. Places that the Russians would be targeting.
 

sport2793

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I'd agree. I honestly don't think the current group of NATO leaders (Biden, Bojo, Macron, Scholz, Trudeau) are have the fortitude or political courage to come to grips with the idea of going to war, and are using article 5 as a way to limit their involvement in Ukraine, while making it appear like they are leaning forward on the matter.
We have to be careful when trying to avoid WW2 to not stumble into WW1.
 

nimic

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
It has to be utterly embarrassing from Russia's perspective, but the Chinese could well use the opportunity to send men to gain enough combat experience like when the Nazis sent the Condor Legion during the Spanish Civil War.:nervous::mad:
No way. They might sell them weapons, but the first sign of Chinese soldiers in Ukraine and NATO would jump in with two feet. There's nothing in it for them, and it risks war and at the very least sanctions. China is a lot harder to sanction than Russia, and it would hurt a lot for everyone involved, but they can't risk it.
 

alexthelion

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I seem to have missed the Nazi-remark but the overall NATO-theme and Ukrainian military strengthening (Turkish drones for example) were the main core of Russia's calculus, according to Lee/Kofman. And not some restoration of a historical "Greater Russia" which is implied in other analysis.
Despite what Pootin himself said?
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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What could China supply that the Russians don't already have? The key problem for Russia in Ukraine is that they can't take the capital, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't conquer and annexe the whole of Ukraine... because they don't have the troops to do this. I don't see any equipment that China could supply that would change this.
I was thinking the same thing. Modern Chinese military equipment (like tanks, APCs, helicopters, etc.) has never been used in combat nor saw extensive NATO-caliber military exercises, and there are not many countries buying that military hardware. It would make little sense for Russia to cash in by using battle-wise untested equipment now when most of the calls to arms from Moscow have been about reaching foreign contingents so far.
 

VorZakone

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Despite what Pootin himself said?
Well, I'm just mentioning what Lee/Kofman argued pre-invasion. But with Putin's words it's hard to say whether he truly means it or whether he uses the rhetoric for domestic consumption. Plenty of people will say he does mean it though.
 

Dante

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China will only help Russia if NATO go into Ukraine first. If China can prolong any campaign in Europe, it'll serve to distract the US away from Taiwan.

But I can't see them entering the fray unless there's a very clear benefit to them, At the moment, there isn't one. And if anything, there's a massive economic disincentive to siding with Russia given all the sanctions flying around.
 
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sport2793

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Agreed. The guy literally wrote love letters to Kim. He's basically the love child of Krushchev and Harvey Weinstein in a Tarantino film.
I think the Trump-Kim letter series will go down as one of the strangest things that will have happened in our lifetimes. I hope they are published eventually in full, the few parts made public are, well, quite something.
 

GlastonSpur

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Hey if America is happy to put the we won't defend Taiwan if you don't send troops to Russia deal officially on the table I'm sure China will take it
That's not what I suggested. Instead I suggested that, if China were to send troops to Ukraine, they should be discreetly informed that doing so would turn any current uncertainty about American defence of Taiwan into a cast-iron certainty of American defence of Taiwan - viz American troops being immediately sent to Taiwan.
 

Boycott

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Quite amazing that Glenn Greenwald is pushing the chemical weapons propaganda narrative to justify an invasion for the second time. Not enough people know that he was a supporter of the Iraq War.
 

Pexbo

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Quite amazing that Glenn Greenwald is pushing the chemical weapons propaganda narrative to justify an invasion for the second time. Not enough people know that he was a supporter of the Iraq War.
It’s been obvious for a while now that Greenwald is on the Russian gravytrain.
 

Raoul

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Quite amazing that Glenn Greenwald is pushing the chemical weapons propaganda narrative to justify an invasion for the second time. Not enough people know that he was a supporter of the Iraq War.
He's the Dave Rubin of Tucker Carlsons. A perfect charlatan for age of internet disinformation.