Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Smores

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I just wish there was a way to shut his program and/or to arrest him. Let the bitchers and moaners at Fox complain and bring the government to court later, but that cnut deserves to be silenced after such open treasonous behavior.



Using Putin's pre-invasion playbook and turn it against him has to be a top priority alongside arming Ukraine even more. The Kaliningrad Oblast is a small piece of land surrounded by Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic Sea. There are just a little less than one million people in there. The idea has been floated around before the Russian invasion began, and it still stands as of now. All that NATO has to do is to mass troops at the oblast's border and basically cut Kaliningrad off from the entire world while sending a warning (or a bluff, you name it): Putin, it's either the safety of your own people to whom you swore to protect, or it's your ego in Ukraine. Regardless, you can't have both.

Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (retired) brought that point back to the surface just 2-3 days ago on CNN's Jim Sciutto's morning show. Doing so would take Putin's eyes off the ball as a primary purpose, but I would go further as to say that Kaliningrad should become a massive bargaining chip in this war.
You want to start arresting journalists and surround Russian territory? Cool...........
 

JPRouve

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As others have said it’s how it was referred to back in the USSR days, but it absolutely should be moved away from (and seemingly has started to be in recent weeks, just as the Kyiv/Kiev thing)
Thanks. In french I have only known Ukraine. But then french is a bit special since we will have an l' in front of Ukraine depending on the sentence.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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You want to start arresting journalists and surround Russian territory? Cool...........
That cnut is not a journalist. And for the record, treason is described as such in the United States penal code:

18 U.S. Code § 2381 - Treason said:
Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.

(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 807; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, § 330016(2)(J), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2148.)
And as for Kaliningrad, does the notion of bargaining chip mean anything to you?
 

Beans

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Why threaten a non-nuclear power with nuclear weapons when you have the more superior military and an array of other horrifying weapons you can call upon?

The Ukraine doesn’t pose any threat to Russia itself and is simply defending itself. If NATO were to enter the war you’re talking three nuclear powers and the capability of crushing Russia or even invading it and overthrowing Putin.

I don’t think it’s difficult to see the major difference and escalation?
I didn't say NATO should attack Russia in Ukraine, and I've not questioned the difference between that and arming the Ukranians, there's no need for the attitude.
 

Smores

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That cnut is not a journalist. And for the record, treason is described as such in the United States penal code:



And as for Kaliningrad, does the notion of bargaining chip mean anything to you?
Yeah you're off your rocker. If you've ended up in a position thinking locking up journalists and surrounding a nation out of some show of force is a good idea then you're probably the exact sort who'd be excusing actual autocratic/tyrannical behaviour if born in another territory. That isn't how any civilised nation acts.

Another one for the ignore.
 

Oly Francis

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I think he has actually used 'not a journalist' as a legal defence, saying he is an entertainment host. I may have made that up.
It was used by Fox News in a lawsuit, claiming they were an "entertainement network" but either way, the 1st amendment is very broad and Carlson's stupidity is protected.

Even calls to violence are protected speech unless intended to and directed to inciting immediate lawless action.
 

2cents

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Now this is an interesting thread on the crisis presented by the prospect of Ukrainian independence in 1991:

 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Yeah you're off your rocker. If you've ended up in a position thinking locking up journalists and surrounding a nation out of some show of force is a good idea then you're probably the exact sort who'd be excusing actual autocratic/tyrannical behaviour if born in another territory. That isn't how any civilised nation acts.

Another one for the ignore.
And you bring no suggestion to the debate whatsoever. At least, I back my arguments with comments from experts and excerpts from existing laws.

Ignore yourself.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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It was used by Fox News in a lawsuit, claiming they were an "entertainement network" but either way, the 1st amendment is very broad and Carlson's stupidity is protected.

Even calls to violence are protected speech unless intended to and directed to inciting immediate lawless action.
But you want to ban journalists and get into non linear war. That's not the means to any good end surely?
The problem I have with Tucker Carlson's shenanigans is as to where the line can and should be drawn between free speech and outright treason as described in the United States Code of Laws. When do you start applying treason charges when this is arguably the first time since WW2 that we have an American cheering up so much for the other side? If one does the entire nomenclature of what he said for Russia and against his own country in the context of this conflict, Carlson sounds and smells really treasonous by definition.

For the record, Mildred "Axis Sally" Gillars was found guilty of treason and served 12 years in prison for disseminating Axis propaganda as an American broadcaster during WW2. Hence we have a precedent if Carlson has to be arrested and put on trial on such charges.
 

sun_tzu

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Positive news.
It sounds positive... But I am not overly hopeful

Ultimately for putin to end this he is going to want sanctions lifted ... I can see him using a ceasefire to resupply troops and then say something along the lines of Ukraine and Russia are happy with the terms but NATO won't lift their sanctions...

Then basically bomb people till NATO lets him use his credit card again

It's certainly more positive than negative but ultimately any settlement is going to have to look at the sanctions and I think the republican hawks in America are prepared to sacrifice a lot of ukranians to be able to blame gas prices on biden
 

moses

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I have no idea either, yet.
The problem I have with Tucker Carlson's shenanigans is as to where the line can and should be drawn between free speech and outright treason as described in the United States Code of Laws. When do you start applying treason charges when this is arguably the first time since WW2 that we have an American cheering up so much for the other side? If one does the entire nomenclature of what he said for Russia and against his own country in the context of this conflict, Carlson sounds and smells really treasonous by definition.

For the record, Mildred "Axis Sally" Gillars was found guilty of treason and served 12 years in prison for disseminating Axis propaganda as an American broadcaster during WW2. Hence we have a precedent.
Is the US at war with Russia?

Carlson is too smart to say such things if a real engagement commenced.

He's an awful shit stirring bastard who I'd hate even more if it was my country he was polluting with his dangerous bile, but you can't ban him or kill him for treason.
 

calodo2003

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The problem I have with Tucker Carlson's shenanigans is as to where the line can and should be drawn between free speech and outright treason as described in the United States Code of Laws. When do you start applying treason charges when this is arguably the first time since WW2 that we have an American cheering up so much for the other side? If one does the entire nomenclature of what he said for Russia and against his own country in the context of this conflict, Carlson sounds and smells really treasonous by definition.

For the record, Mildred "Axis Sally" Gillars was found guilty of treason and served 12 years in prison for disseminating Axis propaganda as an American broadcaster during WW2. Hence we have a precedent if Carlson has to be arrested and put on trial on such charges.
Tuckyo Rose
 

TMDaines

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Russia has the territory with all the oil now, and a lot of the wheat production. He’s not advancing easily, I expect he’d be happy to stop with taking the territory he’s currently holding.

Which would be a disaster for Ukraine, surely.
Yup. Anyone who thinks Ukraine has won this war if both sides settle and lands stay occupied as they are now is misguided. That would be a big loss for Ukraine. Only the future will tell us whether Russia’s gains will have been worth the cost or not.
 

GlastonSpur

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The Anonymous hacker group apparently took over a live TV broadcast in Russia a few days ago (I don't if this has been confirmed as having actually happened) and showed some footage of the destruction in Ukraine.

This got me thinking, can't GCHQ do the same thing? How difficult is it to do?
 

nickm

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I'd agree. I honestly don't think the current group of NATO leaders (Biden, Bojo, Macron, Scholz, Trudeau) are have the fortitude or political courage to come to grips with the idea of going to war, and are using article 5 as a way to limit their involvement in Ukraine, while making it appear like they are leaning forward on the matter.
I think that is too cynical. Any reading of history between nuclear armed states shows they'll do whatever they can to avoid direct conflict. I think Biden is wisely doing everything he can to avoid escalation games with Putin, despite Putin's provocations. At the moment, Putin is making mis-step after mis-step and his options are narrowing as a result. Patience is the name of the game, if Ukraine can hold out. Let's see which way China jumps in the next week or so, that could be crucial.
 

MoskvaRed

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It wasn't, Vietnam wasn't aligned, only in Korea and Afghanistan and Cuba did the Cold War really play out to any degree.

Anti-Communism was a carte blanch for naked imperialism.

The US interfered to varying degrees with 81 sovereign States between 1946 and 2000. That's a lot of misguidance.

Also the knew from the mid 60s they had the upper hand on the Soviets in every regard.
Ho Chi Minh was both an independence fighter and a marxist - the US put way too much emphasis on the latter and not enough on the former but you can’t assert the communist influence in North Vietnam was imperialist make believe. Also, the Cold War played out in a major way in Europe too - Poland, Czechoslavakia, Hungary, East Germany. Those were the high profile ones for Europeans and in none of those cases was the US the bad guys.
 

GlastonSpur

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Yup. Anyone who thinks Ukraine has won this war if both sides settle and lands stay occupied as they are now is misguided. That would be a big loss for Ukraine. Only the future will tell us whether Russia’s gains will have been worth the cost or not.
That's not necessarily so.

First, Russia wouldn't be able stay in all the places they are now - e.g. surrounding three-quarters of Kyiv because that'd be a complete non-starter for Ukraine. Second, Ukraine would remain a free and independent state, albeit somewhat reduced in size, instead of ruled by Putin. Third, they'd apply to join the EU and that application would be fast-tracked. Fourth, Russia's military would be weakened compared to pre-invasion ... and considerably weakened politically on the world stage. Fifth, defensive weapons would pour into Ukraine unhindered - and this time they'd include jets and very sophisticated anti-air defence systems.
 

McGrathsipan

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It sounds positive... But I am not overly hopeful

Ultimately for putin to end this he is going to want sanctions lifted ... I can see him using a ceasefire to resupply troops and then say something along the lines of Ukraine and Russia are happy with the terms but NATO won't lift their sanctions...

Then basically bomb people till NATO lets him use his credit card again

It's certainly more positive than negative but ultimately any settlement is going to have to look at the sanctions and I think the republican hawks in America are prepared to sacrifice a lot of ukranians to be able to blame gas prices on biden
The Republicans can all feck off and jump into a large canyon.
 

Oly Francis

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That's not necessarily so.

First, Russia wouldn't be able stay in all the places they are now - e.g. surrounding three-quarters of Kyiv because that'd be a complete non-starter for Ukraine. Second, Ukraine would remain a free and independent state, albeit somewhat reduced in size, instead of ruled by Putin. Third, they'd apply to join the EU and that application would be fast-tracked. Fourth, Russia's military would be weakened compared to pre-invasion ... and considerably weakened politically on the world stage. Fifth, defensive weapons would pour into Ukraine unhindered - and this time they'd include jets and very sophisticated anti-air defence systems.
It would be because most of the wealth comes from the south east and is currently occupied by Russia.
 

frostbite

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I'd agree. I honestly don't think the current group of NATO leaders (Biden, Bojo, Macron, Scholz, Trudeau) are have the fortitude or political courage to come to grips with the idea of going to war, and are using article 5 as a way to limit their involvement in Ukraine, while making it appear like they are leaning forward on the matter.
What would President Bernie Sanders do?
 

VorZakone

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They suggested Ukraine would invade Southern Russia? And that the Ukrainian government is "in essence" Nazis?
I seem to have missed the Nazi-remark but the overall NATO-theme and Ukrainian military strengthening (Turkish drones for example) were the main core of Russia's calculus, according to Lee/Kofman. And not some restoration of a historical "Greater Russia" which is implied in other analysis.
 

AltiUn

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This is disturbing, the Russian state news station claims the US will do nothing if they use war crimes level weapons in Ukraine.
How on earth does the Russian public digest this information and still support Putin?

This is probably a terrible analogy and anecdote, but when I was younger I absolutely despised tomato, my Mum would keep giving them to me in meals. One day when I was a student I was food shopping by myself and went out and bought myself some tomatoes, after a while I realised that I'd actually ended up liking them. I suspect propaganda works in a similar way.
 

Irwin99

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Yup. There’s a reason countries want to continue on a path to Westernisation and look to the EU and NATO for their prosperity and security. If Russia had anything to offer, countries would look to join their racket, sorry I mean trade and security groups.
The was a good quote on modern Russia's ideological appeal, or rather the lack of it, by the author of Sapiens- Yuval Noah Harari- that basically said that Putin has NOTHING to offer from an ideological perspective to other nations that's attractive: it's just nationalism and oligarchy.

There are many valid criticisms you could make of the West and capitalism/liberalism, there are many you could make of Islamic governments, communist governments etc.., but they're propped up by a belief in something that appeals to people on some level. I'm not sure how Russia intends to keep hold of Ukraine by the notion of blood ties, especially when they've been blowing their supposed brothers to bits and pieces.
 

TMDaines

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That's not necessarily so.

First, Russia wouldn't be able stay in all the places they are now - e.g. surrounding three-quarters of Kyiv because that'd be a complete non-starter for Ukraine. Second, Ukraine would remain a free and independent state, albeit somewhat reduced in size, instead of ruled cby Putin. Third, they'd apply to join the EU and that application would be fast-tracked. Fourth, Russia's military would be weakened compared to pre-invasion ... and considerably weakened politically on the world stage. Fifth, defensive weapons would pour into Ukraine unhindered - and this time they'd include jets and very sophisticated anti-air defence systems.
Love your optimism, but I fear we sleepwalk into a rump state Ukraine with greater political and defensive instability, and both EU and NATO membership still far off in the distance. Just because Ukraine didn’t fall in 72 hours, I think people are overstating their position.
 

Rightnr

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Just saw this is the front page of the FT. Definitely not something I wanted to read.

World War 3 it is then - we are all fecked
It actually seems like it on the face of it but reading the article, it's nowhere near as big. They apparently asked for their help but not that recently but more like at the start of the invasion. The article itself doesn't really make it clear.

I hope China play the fence and hopefully that means they reject the request or provide limited cooperation. Even if we don't get a military escalation as a result of this Ukraine war, the hypocrisy coming from Russia is astounding and makes you realise they still think they live in the Soviet times.

Either way though, and as I've said on plenty of other occasions, this should be an eye-opener for votes in the West refusing to live in the real world about the coming decades and the challenges democracies, however imperfect they may be, face.