Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

MTF

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Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.
I think we still need to wait for more confirmation of this before treating it like undisputed fact.
 

oneniltothearsenal

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Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.
That's virtually impossible. China is a completely different situation than Russia, where the economic integration is mostly just based on resource exportation. That is a vastly different scenario than China where 50 years of globalism have integrated the Chinese and western economies in such a way across so many sectors that what you suggest just isn't realistic in any way. A world where the west is entirely self-sufficient to the point it could cut all economic ties with China with minimal impact is very far away from the world we live in today.

It's not even desirable really because that integration also serves to keep China aligned more with global prosperity. A China that cut off from the west would have less incentives to keep the peace overall.
 

Boavista

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While that's done to strengthen the rubel doesn't it weaken Russia? If I were paying up in Rubles I'd pay to the exchange rate that was effective when the price was negotiated... With the ruble now being worth substantially less that must result in much lower payments!?

Don't think this was well thought out by the little goblin in Moscow.
I don't know much about such things, but isn't the lack of a greater decline in the ruble only because the Russian central bank has been busy propping it up with what are now dwindling foreign exchange reserves? If so, they won't be able to continue to do that for too much longer.
Only accepting Rubles as payment for gas is their way of propping up their currency exactly because their foreign reserves will only last so long. If other countries agree to this, which they likely won't, they would have to buy Rubles at the respective exchange rate which would stabilise it somewhat.
 

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There was that thing named the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It was the opportunity for several countries in the Pacific area to gain an economic leverage against China until the big fat orange cnut scrapped all of that like a fecking idiot. The next step for the US/West is to revive and then expand such partnership eventually.

For the record, Huawei has been severely crippled since their little princess was put under arrest in Canada on top of the fact that a bunch of illegal actions by Huawei have come to the surface. They have lost several contracts for 5G networks.

If private companies were not greedy, they would be able to see that China is a market worth dropping in the long run as several countries nearby can do a similar job without stirring shit politically. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the likes are in a good position if economical decoupling from China has to be accelerated.
I'm no economist, but something tells me that exiling the second largest economy will pose a couple of problems.

Nah. Unfortunately we are stuck.
 

stefan92

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You forgot East Berlin.
Yes please, just give them the whole of Berlin. No better way to ruin a state from the inside than giving them that preposterous incompetent cash burner.
 

GlastonSpur

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apparently the host cities for 2032 are Moscow, St Petersberg, Kyiv, Tallin, Warsaw and Helsinki
They should award it to Kyiv. And a special bye into the forthcoming World Cup finals should now also be give to the Ukrainian national team .
 

GlastonSpur

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The BBC reports:

"Almost all of the town of Irpin, which has seen fierce fighting in recent weeks, is in Ukrainian hands, the mayor of Kyiv has said.

Earlier in March, thousands of residents fled Irpin, which is just 20km (12 miles) north-west of Kyiv, across the remnants of a blown-up bridge as Russian artillery and air strikes pummelled the area.

Vitali Klitschko told journalists Ukrainian forces had pushed back troops there and also in the town of Makariv, west of Kyiv.

He said Ukrainian forces had "destroyed the plan to make a circle around Kyiv".
 

LDUred

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White phosphorous bombs clearly being used by Russian forces in Irpin as a desperate reaction to losing ground there.

Utterly despicable move from Kremlin. These are banned under the Geneva Convention.
 

sun_tzu

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White phosphorous bombs clearly being used by Russian forces in Irpin as a desperate reaction to losing ground there.

Utterly despicable move from Kremlin. These are banned under the Geneva Convention.
yes but apparently using White phosphorous flairs for night vision (in broad daylight) the remnents of which fall down and burn civilians is totally fine - or at least it was in Falluja

US forces yesterday made their clearest admission yet that white phosphorus was used as a weapon against insurgents in Iraq. A Pentagon spokesman told the BBC last night that it had been used as "an incendiary weapon" during the assault last year on Falluja in 2004.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2... yesterday made their,year on Falluja in 2004.
 

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That's insane when you think about it.
I don't know much about such things, but isn't the lack of a greater decline in the ruble only because the Russian central bank has been busy propping it up with what are now dwindling foreign exchange reserves? If so, they won't be able to continue to do that for too much longer.
Now less than 120 Rubles for a Pound. Only a 16.63% gain over the last month. Would be really interested in a good clear long-read on what is in play here and what we can expect to see going forward.
 

stefan92

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Wonderful to see civilians stand up for their human rights and be heard and moderately respected. 20 years ago those soldiers would have massacred them.
That would be suicide and I think the soldiers understand that. If they massacre some civilians there, the rest of the City will come after them with everything they have. Their lives depend on the belief of the people that while occupied they won't be mindlessly killed. Otherwise we wouldn't see such relatively peaceful protests but all out guerilla warfare.
 

MTF

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@Raoul как твой русский? потому что я не говорю на нем, так что какой-то перевод был бы хорош
 

Raoul

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@Raoul как твой русский? потому что я не говорю на нем, так что какой-то перевод был бы хорош
Don't speak it either. From what I surmise, its Vladimir Solovyov's TV show where he gets a group of propagandist clowns to discuss Putin's flavor of the moment propaganda narrative. If true, it would appear to suggest the government may be greasing the skids for a potential negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
 
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Dr. Dwayne

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That would be suicide and I think the soldiers understand that. If they massacre some civilians there, the rest of the City will come after them with everything they have. Their lives depend on the belief of the people that while occupied they won't be mindlessly killed. Otherwise we wouldn't see such relatively peaceful protests but all out guerilla warfare.
Yeah that's the point I'm making. Times have changed. Humanity comes first. Maybe it's unique to Russia-Ukraine but hopefully we see more scenes like this in other conflict areas where the brotherhood of man triumphs over lines on a map.
 

stefan92

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Yeah that's the point I'm making. Times have changed. Humanity comes first. Maybe it's unique to Russia-Ukraine but hopefully we see more scenes like this in other conflict areas where the brotherhood of man triumphs over lines on a map.
I think your view is far too optimistic. The Russian army simply has lost a lot of it's fear factor. Control of civilian unrest works mostly due to fear. The occupier needs to project an evil and fearsome image so no one dares resisting them.

It's simply a balance of power and terror between both sides that currently allows the Russians to be present but not to brutal, while it allows the Ukrainians to protest but not resist forcefully.
 

MTF

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Brazil has had this in the past too :lol:. If it's landlords and service providers I think you just kind of stiff them and there isn't a lot of recourse for them except for cutting services. The key is still being able to pay the diplomats. Otherwise the CIA will be more than willing to pay wages for those that know certain things.
 

Raoul

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Brazil has had this in the past too :lol:. If it's landlords and service providers I think you just kind of stiff them and there isn't a lot of recourse for them except for cutting services. The key is still being able to pay the diplomats. Otherwise the CIA will be more than willing to pay wages for those that know certain things.
Just sell off one of the oligarch mega yachts and the embassies should be back in business.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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I think your view is far too optimistic. The Russian army simply has lost a lot of it's fear factor. Control of civilian unrest works mostly due to fear. The occupier needs to project an evil and fearsome image so no one dares resisting them.

It's simply a balance of power and terror between both sides that currently allows the Russians to be present but not to brutal, while it allows the Ukrainians to protest but not resist forcefully.
Like I said, it may be unique to this conflict. Ukrainians and Russians share a closeness as peoples. Many of the Russian troops are not fully trained and battle hardened and may be less likely to engage in brutal acts due to a lack of indoctrination. Civilians are aware that social media had given them power that maybe has not be wielded before in a conflict. Other factors may also be in play, such as the earlier post that suggests a large number of Dagestani recruits are there. Maybe they don;t fully believe in Russia's objectives, maybe a large number of troops don't.

I don't think a lost fear factor is an influence, at least yet. The Russian army isn't Manchester United at Old Trafford in 2022. The soldier in full armor with a kalashnikov looks pretty frightening. In the not too distant past, putting a bullet in one or more of those Ukrainians would be the default response. Something has changed because he clearly wants to intimidate them but he's not willing to kill them. That's massive.
 

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Israel blocked Ukraine from buying Pegasus spyware, fearing Russia’s anger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/israel-ukraine-pegasus-spyware-russia

Israel blocked Ukraine from buying NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware for fear that Russian officials would be angered by the sale of the sophisticated hacking tool to a regional foe, according to people familiar with the matter.

The revelation, following a joint investigation by the Guardian and Washington Post, offers new insight into the way Israel’s relationship with Russia has at times undermined Ukraine’s offensive capabilities – and contradicted US priorities.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has been critical of Israel’s stance since Russia launched its full and bloody invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, saying in a recent address before members of Israel’s Knesset that Israel would have to “give answers” on why it had not given weapons to Ukraine or applied sanctions on Russians
 

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Israel blocked Ukraine from buying Pegasus spyware, fearing Russia’s anger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/israel-ukraine-pegasus-spyware-russia

Israel blocked Ukraine from buying NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware for fear that Russian officials would be angered by the sale of the sophisticated hacking tool to a regional foe, according to people familiar with the matter.

The revelation, following a joint investigation by the Guardian and Washington Post, offers new insight into the way Israel’s relationship with Russia has at times undermined Ukraine’s offensive capabilities – and contradicted US priorities.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has been critical of Israel’s stance since Russia launched its full and bloody invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, saying in a recent address before members of Israel’s Knesset that Israel would have to “give answers” on why it had not given weapons to Ukraine or applied sanctions on Russians
Apartheid state. Need to be boycotted, divested, and sanctioned for this. (Come at me)