Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Raoul]

I did think a couple of weeks ago that Israel's response was muted, and I wondered whether they were worried about the potential trouble Russia could cause in Syria. That may explain this?

I think its a poor attempt at Bennett attempting to play the fence. He knows the US won't not support Israel, and is attempting to leverage that by staying on Russia's good side as well, thereby positioning Israel as having support from both. Its a poor strategy that will backfire in the end if Putin gets deposed, leaving Bennett looking like a two faced schmuck who gambled and lost in his first high stakes international politics adventure.

 

[2cents]

I did think a couple of weeks ago that Israel's response was muted, and I wondered whether they were worried about the potential trouble Russia could cause in Syria. That may explain this?

Both Israel and Turkey are attempting to maintain the decent relations they’ve established with Russia since Russia made itself the main power broker in Syria (for some reason Israel’s stance is receiving a lot more publicity than NATO-member Turkey’s). America will complain that these two allies are not fulfilling their part of the bargain, they will respond that by abandoning Syria to Russia, America has left them little choice.

 

[nimic]

Apartheid state. Need to be boycotted, divested, and sanctioned for this. (Come at me)

You're sexy when you talk dirty.

 

[Carolina Red]

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[Raoul]

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[Dan-Utd]

Russia To Require Gas Payments In Rubles

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he would not accept payments for natural gas shipments in dollars or euros — instead, "unfriendly countries" would have to pay in Russian rubles, TASS reported.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-to-require-gas-payments-in-rubles/

Not gonna lie I admire the way that no matter how much pressure people put on him, he still comes up with a crafty way to strike back.

IMO he won't back down on Ukraine and a peace deal would mean acquitting him of the war crimes in Ukraine so that's a no no.

Which means it's only a matter of time until he presses the nuclear weapons button, there's no winners in this war.

 

[Carolina Red]

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[Pintu]

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[GlastonSpur]

The BBC reports:

"A Russian lieutenant colonel has been captured by Ukrainian forces, a Western official has confirmed.

Ukraine has conducted "limited counter attacks", they said, which had led to the destruction of Russian equipment and capture of some Russian personnel.

"In the area in which he was captured, there was a significant amount of electronic warfare equipment. It's unclear whether he was personally connected with that, but it's something we're looking into currently," the western official said.

Overall, six Russian generals are now thought to have been killed, the most senior is a lieutenant general who was commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army. All six will have been replaced, they say.

The official said it was 'remarkable' that Hostomel airport was still being fought over when it was a Day One objective for Russian forces."

 

[Rajma]

Are dimwits in Germany still going through with nuclear phase-out? They should be now throwing a kitchen sink to try and put back as many plants into operation as possible, it would drastically reduce the need for gas&coal.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Not gonna lie I admire the way that no matter how much pressure people put on him, he still comes up with a crafty way to strike back.

IMO he won't back down on Ukraine and a peace deal would mean acquitting him of the war crimes in Ukraine so that's a no no.

Which means it's only a matter of time until he presses the nuclear weapons button, there's no winners in this war.

A peace deal does not have to mean acquitting him of war crimes. In any case, Ukraine is not in a position to offer that.

IMO, whilst there can be a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, Putin is now beyond the pale for NATO and Europe - they want him gone from power. Unless that happens I don't see any sanctions being lifted.

 

[GlastonSpur]

The BBC reports:

"French car manufacturer Renault has announced that it is suspending work at its Moscow factory once more.

Earlier today, Ukraine's president called on Renault and other French companies to quit Russia as he addressed the French parliament via videolink.

"They must stop financing the murders of women and children," he told French MPs.

Renault had restarted operations in Moscow this week, after pausing work following the invasion of Ukraine.

In a statement released on Wednesday evening it stressed that it was already complying with international sanctions on Russia."

 

[Rajma]

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Heart problems, apparently.

 

[stefan92]

Are dimwits in Germany still going through with nuclear phase-out? They should be now throwing a kitchen sink to try and put back as many plants into operation as possible, it would drastically reduce the need for gas&coal.

Do you know who is the most important producer of Uranium? It's Russia.

 

[stefan92]

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Heart problems, apparently.

Nice cover story.

Either Putin got rid of him for failing or he retreated back home and waits for the Putin regime to break down.

 

[Frosty]

Do you know who is the most important producer of Uranium? It's Russia.

Australia and Namibia produce way more than Russia though, so perhaps they could provide supply?

 

[Rajma]

Nice cover story.

Either Putin got rid of him for failing or he retreated back home and waits for the Putin regime to break down.

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[Dr. Dwayne]

Do you know who is the most important producer of Uranium? It's Russia.

Where do you get these figures? As of 2020 they were way down the list.
https://world-nuclear.org/informati...-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx

Country	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Kazakhstan	19,451	21,317	22,451	23,127	23,607	24,689	23,321	21,705	22,808	19,477
Australia	5983	6991	6350	5001	5654	6315	5882	6517	6613	6203
Namibia	3258	4495	4323	3255	2993	3654	4224	5525	5476	5413
Canada	9145	8999	9331	9134	13,325	14,039	13,116	7001	6938	3885
Uzbekistan (est.)	2500	2400	2400	2400	2385	3325	3400	3450	3500	3500
Niger	4351	4667	4518	4057	4116	3479	3449	2911	2983	2991
Russia	2993	2872	3135	2990	3055	3004	2917	2904	2911	2846
China (est.)	885	1500	1500	1500	1616	1616	1692	1885	1885	1885
Ukraine	890	960	922	926	1200	808	707	790	800	744
India (est.)	400	385	385	385	385	385	421	423	308	400
South Africa (est.)	582	465	531	573	393	490	308	346	346	250

 

[MTF]

I thought Shoygu is a bit of a nobody, as far as Defense Ministers go. In the sense that he was a leader of national emergency response before, but never a general in the military.

 

[stefan92]

Where do you get these figures? As of 2020 they were way down the list.
https://world-nuclear.org/informati...-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx

Country	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Kazakhstan	19,451	21,317	22,451	23,127	23,607	24,689	23,321	21,705	22,808	19,477
Australia	5983	6991	6350	5001	5654	6315	5882	6517	6613	6203
Namibia	3258	4495	4323	3255	2993	3654	4224	5525	5476	5413
Canada	9145	8999	9331	9134	13,325	14,039	13,116	7001	6938	3885
Uzbekistan (est.)	2500	2400	2400	2400	2385	3325	3400	3450	3500	3500
Niger	4351	4667	4518	4057	4116	3479	3449	2911	2983	2991
Russia	2993	2872	3135	2990	3055	3004	2917	2904	2911	2846
China (est.)	885	1500	1500	1500	1616	1616	1692	1885	1885	1885
Ukraine	890	960	922	926	1200	808	707	790	800	744
India (est.)	400	385	385	385	385	385	421	423	308	400
South Africa (est.)	582	465	531	573	393	490	308	346	346	250

Indeed I confused it with Kazakhstan, my mistake. Nonetheless as long as we rely on a country under Russia's influence we would have a problem.

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Thought of that, too. I guess the rift between Shoygu and Putin is real, the question only seems to be how it plays out in the end.

 

[tomaldinho1]

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Eerie coincidence, isn’t it him and the head of the national guard who have supposedly just vanished.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[Sarni]

Not gonna lie I admire the way that no matter how much pressure people put on him, he still comes up with a crafty way to strike back.

IMO he won't back down on Ukraine and a peace deal would mean acquitting him of the war crimes in Ukraine so that's a no no.

Which means it's only a matter of time until he presses the nuclear weapons button, there's no winners in this war.

Ridiculous. There is literally 0.01% chance of that happening.

 

[GlastonSpur]

... I guess the rift between Shoygu and Putin is real, the question only seems to be how it plays out in the end.

Not a good look for Putin if he accuses his own Defence Minister of treason. It would only add to unease amongst the Russian public.

 

[Rightnr]

Anyone working for Putin that's not family is expendable. If they fail to realise that, they won't live long.

 

[dal]

Interesting move

I'm not sure how thats going to work though as I doubt the contracts were written in a way that allows such a change?

Contracts, really, does anyone think Russia cares about pieces of papers or legality. Are we living in our computer rooms?

 

[Sir Matt]

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[sun_tzu]

Contracts, really, does anyone think Russia cares about pieces of papers or legality. Are we living in our computer rooms?

I was thinking more about the buyers

If there was a facility in the contract that allowed the currency to be changed with a weeks notice then I can see them going along with it

But I expect there isn't so I can't see people doing it

 

[MTF]

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What's crazy to me (with my limited understanding) is how the Russian ground forces seemingly cannot exploit any penetration. It makes sense not to waste resources on taking a town like Kharkiv if you want to get past it, advance all the way to like Dnipro, and then basically cut off the Ukranian forces in the Donbass. But they haven't shown the ability or intention to make those thrusts. It's like war in slow motion, as if they didn't study their own Great Patriotic War.

 

[dal]

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I’ll really fear when they go far back and dig in, makes me think some tactical wmd will be used.

 

[dal]

I was thinking more about the buyers

If there was a facility in the contract that allowed the currency to be changed with a weeks notice then I can see them going along with it

But I expect there isn't so I can't see people doing it

hey? Even if there was a facility or no facility if I am Russian I will say if you want gas then pay in rubles if not feck off.

 

[spiriticon]

hey? Even if there was a facility or no facility if I am Russian I will say if you want gas then pay in rubles if not feck off.

The EU is trying to convince Germany and Hungary to accept an oil embargo and Putin comes in and helps by cutting the gas anyway? Also, doesn't this free the EU to cut the remaining Russian banks from SWIFT?

It doesn't make sense for them, especially when they need the money to keep the war going.

 

[The Firestarter]

hey? Even if there was a facility or no facility if I am Russian I will say if you want gas then pay in rubles if not feck off.

That is bizarre request. Why can't they buy roubles with the euro they get from the gas contracts themselves ? The effect will be the same. Also, at the moment Russsia needs money more than Europe needs gas.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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An upper end estimate of 15,000 dead Russians. If that many are actually dead, it would suggest 60,000 Russian troops now out of action - not far short of one third of their entire estimated invasion force of 190k.

 

[Max_United]

Yeah that's the point I'm making. Times have changed. Humanity comes first. Maybe it's unique to Russia-Ukraine but hopefully we see more scenes like this in other conflict areas where the brotherhood of man triumphs over lines on a map.

I was thinking more about the buyers

If there was a facility in the contract that allowed the currency to be changed with a weeks notice then I can see them going along with it

But I expect there isn't so I can't see people doing it

Usually gas contracts give Europeans a theoretical OPTION to pay in rubles instead of EUR/USD (which is never exercised I think), but there is no obligation and Russians cannot contractually force them to switch currency. So that would be completely at the discretion of Europeans.

Putin is just being nasty and trying to show he is serious. Such things might make headlines, but in the grand scheme of things payment in rubles does not make a huge difference - the demand for rubles on foreign exchange market will just be now generated by Europeans instead of Gazprom (plus some gas is also purchased on spot market vs LT contracts) . The slight difference is that the new situation would basically be equivalent to russian government forcing Gazprom to sell 100% of foreign currency gas revenues (and they already force to sell 80% since the beginning of war anyway).

Now all of this assuming that Europeans would go along and buy rubles and pay with them. There are indications already that many won't and I do not think that Russia would reject euro payments, hurting themselves (but i guess last month proved that you cannot be sure about such things when it comes to Russia).

Anyway mid- and long-term it just further undermines credibility of Russia as a supplier, raises more fears that it might stop providing gas altogether and acts as a further incentive for Europe to forgo Russian oil and gas asap to avoid pain from sudden switch-off.

 

[the_cliff]

Usually gas contracts give Europeans a theoretical OPTION to pay in rubles instead of EUR/USD (which is never exercised I think), but there is no obligation and Russians cannot contractually force them to switch currency. So that would be completely at the discretion of Europeans.

Putin is just being nasty and trying to show he is serious. Such things might make headlines, but in the grand scheme of things payment in rubles does not make a huge difference - the demand for rubles on foreign exchange market will just be now generated by Europeans instead of Gazprom (plus some gas is also purchased on spot market vs LT contracts) . The slight difference is that the new situation would basically be equivalent to russian government forcing Gazprom to sell 100% of foreign currency gas revenues (and they already force to sell 80% since the beginning of war anyway).

Now all of this assuming that Europeans would go along and buy rubles and pay with them. There are indications already that many won't and I do not think that Russia would reject euro payments, hurting themselves (but i guess last month proved that you cannot be sure about such things when it comes to Russia).

Anyway mid- and long-term it just further undermines credibility of Russia as a supplier, raises more fears that it might stop providing gas altogether and acts as a further incentive for Europe to forgo Russian oil and gas asap to avoid pain from sudden switch-off.

So what's the alternative ?

Coal ?

Iran ?

The US wants to get back in Maduro's good books and wants the nuclear deal with Iran done to get Iranian oil back on the market but the Iranians don't seem too keen. Saudi and OPEC aren't playing ball and neither is China and that's just the oil. What about the natural gas ?

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[Dr. Dwayne]

Indeed I confused it with Kazakhstan, my mistake. Nonetheless as long as we rely on a country under Russia's influence we would have a problem.

No worries, I wondered if you had, too, or if I missed a big geopolitical story.

 

[Carolina Red]

Been doing a little reading on the Russian battalion tactical group concept and what it’s limitations are, and honestly they really do start to fall apart when you get into urban terrain. The BTG has a very small infantry component, backed by a relatively small amount of combat vehicles. They’re not capable of sustaining the types of losses that are to be expected in an urban combat environment.

Here’s a great essay on the Russian BTG vs US BCT concept. It includes a good chart showing what kind of casualties each can sustain before becoming combat ineffective.

https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf

 

[Tibs]

Are Russian troops up against huge numbers of Ukrainians?

They said that Ukrainian men couldn't leave the country and would have to defend the country, so in the capital, in theory there could be 3k Russian troops up against 18k Ukrainian troops/armed personnel?

Just trying to work out whether this is the Russians being shite, or them just up against a HUGE number.