Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Mciahel Goodman]

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Kremlin says no more energy unless you trade in rubles.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

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those videos with such a tune make me fecking vomit to be honest
vibin' while peoples bodies get exploded
not my cuppa tea, it's completely tasteless shit

 

[TMDaines]

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Kremlin says no more energy unless you trade in rubles.

The Ruble has recovered all the way back to 130 versus the Pound. You only get 19.23% more Rubles for a Pound than you did a month ago.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I don't think Biden wanted this war, but it seems like the West would rather see the war drag on than for it to end quickly with some sort of a new Minsk agreement.

This article explains it well... And why it might not be a good strategy.

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What would you say are the alternatives though? Escalation at the risk of nuclear conflict? Withdrawal of military aid/sanctions? Pressurise Ukraine to sue for peace on whatever terms Russia chooses to offer?

 

[Raoul]

those videos with such a tune make me fecking vomit to be honest
vibin' while peoples bodies get exploded
not my cuppa tea, it's completely tasteless shit

Its a terrible track as well. They would've been better off with some arrows that showed what sort of vehicles are getting blown up, when/where, what kind of drone Turkish or other) etc.

 

[UpWithRivers]

China is one of the most integrated economies in the world. How do you propose being 'independent' from it? They have around €400billion invested just in Europe.

Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.

 

[GlastonSpur]

those videos with such a tune make me fecking vomit to be honest
vibin' while peoples bodies get exploded
not my cuppa tea, it's completely tasteless shit

I agree about the sound-track thing.

But the main point is that the video shows the Ukrainians successfully fighting back. And whilst I feel sorry for the Russian troops being ordered to fight in a war that most of them probably don't want or understand, the Ukrainians are fighting for their very survival as a free nation.

 

[Beans]

Russia is now the most sanctioned nation on Earth - in a few months their economy will be in ruins. NATO supplied weapons to Ukraine are having a devastating effect on Russia's invasion force. Europe is now moving as fast as possible to reduce oil and gas reliance on Russia. NATO is ramping up defences in all front-line NATO countries. Germany is now massively increasing its defence spending.

So let's talk about the here-and-now, rather than the past.

The world needs the US to start producing crucial medicine in the US or other stable democracies, along with lots of other crucial items.

 

[Rajma]

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Kremlin says no more energy unless you trade in rubles.

If Germany is so afraid of agreeing to embargo on Russian gas at least they should call Putin’s bluff on this one. Pay as always, Putin won’t be cutting the hand that feeds him.

 

[UpWithRivers]

Russia is now the most sanctioned nation on Earth - in a few months their economy will be in ruins. NATO supplied weapons to Ukraine are having a devastating effect on Russia's invasion force. Europe is now moving as fast as possible to reduce oil and gas reliance on Russia. NATO is ramping up defences in all front-line NATO countries. Germany is now massively increasing its defence spending.

So let's talk about the here-and-now, rather than the past.

I am talking about the here and now. We are still supporting and sucking up to dictatorships governments. China, Saudis etc. Im not saying go to War with them but we need a long term strategy to deal with them.

 

[MTF]

View from a former USMC Colonel on the ground in Kyiv, on the ability of the city to hold out even if surrounded (which is a threat that hasn't increased in recent days): https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/russia-kyiv-siege-battle/

 

[GlastonSpur]

Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.

China isn't going to be invading Taiwan any time soon. They'll have seen in Ukraine what happens to attackers against determined defenders - and Taiwan is stuffed to the gills with sophisticated weapons, 100 miles away across open sea.

Moreover, China is now hugely integrated into the global economy - any major disruption to that would have major effects on both them and the West. They (China) will think twice before making any move that puts their economy at risk.

I agree, however, that reducing depending on China should be the long-term goal.

 

[Abizzz]

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Kremlin says no more energy unless you trade in rubles.

While that's done to strengthen the rubel doesn't it weaken Russia? If I were paying up in Rubles I'd pay to the exchange rate that was effective when the price was negotiated... With the ruble now being worth substantially less that must result in much lower payments!?

Don't think this was well thought out by the little goblin in Moscow.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

The Ruble has recovered all the way back to 130 versus the Pound. You only get 19.23% more Rubles for a Pound than you did a month ago.

That's insane when you think about it.

While that's done to strengthen the rubel doesn't it weaken Russia? If I were paying up in Rubles I'd pay to the exchange rate that was effective when the price was negotiated... With the ruble now being worth substantially less that must result in much lower payments!?

Don't think this was well thought out by the little goblin in Moscow.

Only going by what's been written so far, my guess is that Moscow is thinking they have less to lose. They'd be almost willing to hit financial nuclear button whereas Europe isn't (Kremlin sort of already has with its invasion and sanctions reaction). Also, basic idea behind it seems to be to keep trading in rubles a thing, even if only by necessity.

 

[Pintu]

Do you think Ukraine wants a new Minsk after everything that happened?

I have no idea. But if I were Ukrainian I'd rather see some sort of a "just" peace treaty with Russia reached sooner rather than later, sparing as many innocent lives as possible, saving entire cities that would undoubtedly get destroyed if the war continues... The military "victory" is too far and too costly.

And if we want to protect Ukraine (and Moldova and Georgia) without going to war, the new agreement should not prevent keeping the sanctions on the Russian regime. Keeping the sanctions and extending them to the energy sector will make sure that Putin won't have the capacity to invade another country again.

This is pretty obvious since no one can trust Putin to abide by any agreement. All it would do is needlessly prolong his regime, during which he would continue fomenting chaos in the region until someone finally puts him out of his misery.

We can't trust Putin, but the US & EU can learn from their Crimea's mistakes. Sanctions back then were too soft and allowed Putin to prepare for this war. Keep the economical pressure on, go further, make it smarter and as painful as possible for the regime. But I am not convinced of the strategy, especially when we are not giving Ukraine any game changing war material. We are just giving them enough to keep fighting and bleed Russia dry. But this might take forever. A determined occupation power can keep on for years if they aren't forced out. The Israeli “Operation Peace for the Galilee” wasn't supposed to turn into a 20 years occupation of south Lebanon with countless massacres of civilians. And Israel only recognised it as a war 38 years after the invasion and 20 years after the 2000 withdrawal (another similarity with the Russia, still calling this "special operation").

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.

There was that thing named the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It was the opportunity for several countries in the Pacific area to gain an economic leverage against China until the big fat orange cnut scrapped all of that like a fecking idiot. The next step for the US/West is to revive and then expand such partnership eventually.

For the record, Huawei has been severely crippled since their little princess was put under arrest in Canada on top of the fact that a bunch of illegal actions by Huawei have come to the surface. They have lost several contracts for 5G networks.

If private companies were not greedy, they would be able to see that China is a market worth dropping in the long run as several countries nearby can do a similar job without stirring shit politically. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the likes are in a good position if economical decoupling from China has to be accelerated.

 

[harms]

I would imagine he would be using his private banker get cash out for him. If he is doing it himself he must be pretty low down the totem pole.

He was responsible for the entire privatisation (THE privatisation). He's one of the most influential political figures in post-Soviet Russia even though he's not very active anymore.

 

[stefan92]

I have no idea. But if I were Ukrainian I'd rather see some sort of a "just" peace treaty with Russia reached sooner rather than later, sparing as many innocent lives as possible, saving entire cities that would undoubtedly get destroyed if the war continues... The military "victory" is too far and too costly.

Minsk, Budapest... several treaties guaranteed Ukraine safety and were broken. They have very little reason to believe in anything the Russians promise.

So for Ukraine a peace treaty might just be understood as "people will die later in the next war" instead of "people won't die".

 

[GlastonSpur]

The Ruble has recovered all the way back to 130 versus the Pound. You only get 19.23% more Rubles for a Pound than you did a month ago.

I don't know much about such things, but isn't the lack of a greater decline in the ruble only because the Russian central bank has been busy propping it up with what are now dwindling foreign exchange reserves? If so, they won't be able to continue to do that for too much longer.

 

[Raoul]

We can't trust Putin, but the US & EU can learn from their Crimea's mistakes. Sanctions back then were too soft and allowed Putin to prepare for this war. Keep the economical pressure on, go further, make it smarter and as painful as possible for the regime. But I am not convinced of the strategy, especially when we are not giving Ukraine any game changing war material. We are just giving them enough to keep fighting and bleed Russia dry. But this might take forever. A determined occupation power can keep on for years if they aren't forced out. The Israeli “Operation Peace for the Galilee” wasn't supposed to turn into a 20 years occupation of south Lebanon with countless massacres of civilians. And Israel only recognised it as a war 38 years after the invasion and 20 years after the 2000 withdrawal (another similarity with the Russia, still calling this "special operation").

Yes, indeed. Obama was too soft and feckless in his sanctions.

 

[sun_tzu]

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Kremlin says no more energy unless you trade in rubles.

Interesting move

I'm not sure how thats going to work though as I doubt the contracts were written in a way that allows such a change?

 

[GlastonSpur]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...russian-shoppers-as-sanctions-bite/ar-AAVnZuu

 

[spiriticon]

If the EU says no to paying in rubles, are Russia going to cut oil and gas? I doubt it.

I guess if they do, it makes Germany and Hungary's resistance to an oil embargo fairly pointless

 

[Suedesi]

So, who's winning the war? Are we close to a deal or will this war of attrition continue?

 

[Rektsanwalt]

Interesting move

I'm not sure how thats going to work though as I doubt the contracts were written in a way that allows such a change?

I don't think anybody would care about the contracts. Putin can simply force a complete export stop on a national level, unless certain requirements are met, in this case, being paid in ruble.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Interesting move

I'm not sure how thats going to work though as I doubt the contracts were written in a way that allows such a change?

Yeah not sure except that I don't think Moscow cares about contractual matters. It's viewing this as a financial war and the only leverage they have is that Europe needs their energy for the moment whereas I think Moscow is prepared, short-term, to stop supply.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

So, who's winning the war? Are we close to a deal or will this war of attrition continue?

Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.

 

[Pintu]

If private companies were not greedy, they would be able to see that China is a market worth dropping in the long run as several countries nearby can do a similar job without stirring shit politically. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the likes are in a good position if economical decoupling from China has to be accelerated.

China is the world's biggest market in population and 2nd/3d in GDP. That's why Corporates are very greedy and quick to support China and lobby against any actions toward them.

Minsk, Budapest... several treaties guaranteed Ukraine safety and were broken. They have very little reason to believe in anything the Russians promise.

So for Ukraine a peace treaty might just be understood as "people will die later in the next war" instead of "people won't die".

Not this time, especially if they have a quick path to EU and the West can keep the sanctions on Russia's regime.

 

[Zlatattack]

So has the war become a stalemate? Is he laying siege to Kiev and other cities?

 

[spiriticon]

Putin is not cutting off any oil or gas. He has a war to fund.

His army will fall apart rather quickly without EU fuel money.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

So, who's winning the war? Are we close to a deal or will this war of attrition continue?

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Don't know who's winning, but many are losing. I think reparations are more critical to a peace-deal than some believe. Link reparations to sanctions relief, and you might get a deal that works for each side. But Kyiv will want Russia, rightfully, to pay for the cost of rebuilding.

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In other news, many experts on Ukrainian side are expecting Belarus to invade from the West, shoring up the encirclement of Kyiv. It's been touted for the past seven to ten days. Diplomatic expulsion, tit-for-tat, hints at it happening soon.

 

[Sir Matt]

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[stefan92]

Not this time, especially if they have a quick path to EU and the West can keep the sanctions on Russia's regime.

Let's say it this way: strategically it makes sense for Ukraine to beat Russia as hard as they can to buy themselves enough time to properly join the EU and become part of its defence structure. And make no mistake it will take years for that corrupt oligarchy (yes, I'm talking about Ukraine) to evolve enough to properly get into EU.

They have to be sure Russia can't take revenge in the meantime, and the more Russian military and economy gets destroyed, the more likely it is that they get enough time.

 

[sun_tzu]

Let's say it this way: strategically it makes sense for Ukraine to beat Russia as hard as they can to buy themselves enough time to properly join the EU and become part of its defence structure. And make no mistake it will take years for that corrupt oligarchy (yes, I'm talking about Ukraine) to evolve enough to properly get into EU.

They have to be sure Russia can't take revenge in the meantime, and the more Russian military and economy gets destroyed, the more likely it is that they get enough time.

they will just fudge it like they did with the Euro criteria for countries though wont they

 

[Pintu]

Yeah not sure except that I don't think Moscow cares about contractual matters. It's viewing this as a financial war and the only leverage they have is that Europe needs their energy for the moment whereas I think Moscow is prepared, short-term, to stop supply.

Stoping supply might be suicidal for Russia. They have no other clients for their gas.

Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.

Ukrainian army did make some progress around Kyiv (which is encouraging) but Russia is still the dominating force and "surrounded" seems to be somewhat hyperbolic.

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[Mciahel Goodman]

Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.

It's in this context that I'm reading the Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the South and East. If Belarus enters and moves toward Kyiv, it gives Russia almost complete upperhand in the ground-war all across Ukraine (supposing the Belarusian army to be competent).

Stoping supply might be suicidal for Russia. They have no other clients for their gas.

I agree but I think it's "more" suicidal for Europe. The Russians are isolated in a way Europe has avoided so far. Stop supply and Russia's economy will take another battering, but it's already being battered. On the other hand, Europe's economy will tank almost overnight. The ruble clause might be the "get out" for each side.

 

[sun_tzu]

Let's say it this way: strategically it makes sense for Ukraine to beat Russia as hard as they can to buy themselves enough time to properly join the EU and become part of its defence structure. And make no mistake it will take years for that corrupt oligarchy (yes, I'm talking about Ukraine) to evolve enough to properly get into EU.

They have to be sure Russia can't take revenge in the meantime, and the more Russian military and economy gets destroyed, the more likely it is that they get enough time.

Also more likely Russia becomes set on revenge

Most wars are not settled with marching into the other capital and raising a flag they are a negotiated settlement first a ceasefire and then some point later (or not like with north korea) a peace treaty

Im pretty sure that as part of the neutrality / buffer state Russia is pushing for they will not only focus on Nato membership but also EU ... and I really dont think there is a limit to how many kids putin will bomb to get his way ... so sadly he probably will get his way

 

[stefan92]

they will just fudge it like they did with the Euro criteria for countries though wont they

I don't think that the EU interest to let Ukraine join is that big to be honest. Especially the Baltic states and Poland are very interested in beating Russia to get rid of a dangerous neighbour, but will the EU as a whole be that motivated to include Ukraine once the war is over? There will be doubts and skepticism all over it.

 

[sglowrider]

He was responsible for the entire privatisation (THE privatisation). He's one of the most influential political figures in post-Soviet Russia even though he's not very active anymore.

The enabler of the oligarchs.

 

[MTF]

It's in this context that I'm reading the Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the South and East. If Belarus enters and moves toward Kyiv, it gives Russia almost complete upperhand in the ground-war all across Ukraine (supposing the Belarusian army to be competent).

It isn't.