I'm afraid Putin will escalate this war destroying one of his cities with some kind of chemical weapon accusing Ukraine and giving him the green flag to use a nuclear weapon.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Exactly my point, the symbols are used to identify to which unit a craft belongs.
We know Ukraine destroyed and captured a lot of air defense systems. It is possible that they got valid codes in such an incident and just used them before they were changed. But obviously, that is just a wild theory, however it should be possible to happen.
Again in theory you are right. But on the other hand battle damage on helicopters is quite usual, not working communication or IFF aren't surprising, but of course a reason for concern. You don't want to just kill your pilot flying back from a hard battle, you want to make sure that it really aren't your own, so you try to get confirmation.
And when you think about the proven incompetence of the Russian air defense soldiers and their general lack of quality communication it becomes plausible that they wouldn't shoot at what they must consider a damaged Russian craft flying home, as they wouldn't expect Ukrainians flying into Russia.
This might however change now if this incident makes them paranoid, but it would lead to a massive increase in friendly fire.
I agree that mine was pure speculation. The Ukrainians haven't taken the opportunity to deny it was them, which I imagine they would do. I was thinking of a way it might be plausible, at least to myself.
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No chance of nuclear. He does that and even China take their hands off Russia. He is one miss fired rocket away from NATO making a move and ending the Russian military. He might be insane but his generals are not.
A fantasy I know, but it'd be great if a Ukrainian helo fitted with long-range fuel tanks could fly low all the way to Moscow and put a few holes in the Kremlin.
Whilst leaders on both sides are prepared to accept the casualties, whilst arms manufactures can use the conflict as a testing ground for even more destructive highly techno-led armaments, whilst the financial costs inside and outside the conflict area can still be managed, then this war is going nowhere, except perhaps to escalate and only one side can do that ...otherwise they will fight themselves to a standstill.
At that point the 'world order', at least in and around Eastern Europe, will have already changed, maybe forever, the certainties associated with boundaries drawn on a map, no longer exist.
At that point the 'world order', at least in and around Eastern Europe, will have already changed, maybe forever, the certainties associated with boundaries drawn on a map, no longer exist.
They will fight until Russia is back behind pre - 24/2 lines, simple as that. Progress is clearly being made toward that goal every day now.
China will smoke Russia then the US will finish them off. Do people really think China will sit idly by with Putin waving nukes around?
China is having the greatest time of their life, US in decline but still the powerful military in the world, Russia already declined decades ago with a very weak and unorganized army - China wants Russia territory they lost in the 1800's. If Russia uses nuclear weapons nothing is going to happen besides turning Russia in another North Korea, they have enough nuclear weapons (if they still in working condition) to wipe Europe, US and China besides turning Russia in a wasteland when UK, France and US nuke them.
Nobody wants a nuclear war but never forget the Russians don't give 2 shits about their own people, they never did. A nuclear war and will be the end, civilization will be like a clock when reaches 12 everything starts over again and in a few centuries we will be in the middle ages again.
Re: The helicopter attack, its really a lose/lose for Russia.
Option 1; Ukraine did it, showing they can bypass Russian anti-air and inflict tactical attacks on enemy positions. And that they still have an air force.
Option 2; Russian false-flag, meaning that Russia are telling their population the same as above.
The attack is clearly not an escalation anyway. Compared with bombing hospitals, razing cities and all other manner of warcrimes, a tactical and well-executed strike on an enemy oil depot (with no reported casualties) is absolutely fair game. Its war after all.
For what its worth I think Ukraine are doing the right thing by doing the old "neither confirm nor deny". Everyone assumes Russia is lying and says it is a false flag on their part, whether it was actually Ukraine or not. Only Ukraine and Russia know the truth, and from Ukraines point of view it doesnt feel like there is a benefit to publicly disclosing it.
Option 1; Ukraine did it, showing they can bypass Russian anti-air and inflict tactical attacks on enemy positions. And that they still have an air force.
Option 2; Russian false-flag, meaning that Russia are telling their population the same as above.
The attack is clearly not an escalation anyway. Compared with bombing hospitals, razing cities and all other manner of warcrimes, a tactical and well-executed strike on an enemy oil depot (with no reported casualties) is absolutely fair game. Its war after all.
For what its worth I think Ukraine are doing the right thing by doing the old "neither confirm nor deny". Everyone assumes Russia is lying and says it is a false flag on their part, whether it was actually Ukraine or not. Only Ukraine and Russia know the truth, and from Ukraines point of view it doesnt feel like there is a benefit to publicly disclosing it.
Then my 2 decades of kenjutsu will finally have a real World application.
Serious now, as far as I know nukes are not literally strike by a button; there are military people that have to accept the orders and those people have families, children even in Europe or the US; they will not just end the World because the mad man says so. I know that putin and his gang might not care at all for the Russian people, but the military man do.
They do give a shit about themselves though and it’s over if they pull that trigger. There will be no nuclear escalation, absolutely zero chance of that. Even Russia themselves have started to distance themselves from that possibility, and they have nothing to gain from that as that is the only card they have over the West.
Just a reminder of the Russian self-proclaimed conditions for executing a nuclear strike..
Really hope I'm just being paranoid.
Obviously a single attack on an oil depot doesn't meet either of those conditions to a rational mind, but I can imagine a propaganda campaign that could use that as an excuse for a tactical nuclear strike by this regime.
Really hope I'm just being paranoid.
frankly i dont give a shit if it was ukraine or not. Russia has literally invaded them and are bombing the feck out of them. If ukraine did strike this oil depot or whatever it is much more a military target than most of what russia has been hitting.
Following a full-scale nuclear exchange it won't be a few centuries until we reach the middle ages again ... because there won't be any humans left alive anywhere on the planet to re-start things.
All sentient life on earth will be gone, permanently.
nah nukes wont kill all sentient life permanently. only thing that would do that would be something like a black hole sucking in earth or once the sun goes supernova.
Have the cnuts turned off the gas yet?
The problem with this is that it assumes that the Russian military commanders in charge of the launch sequences are not ultra-nationalists who might well be brainwashed into thinking that either a nuclear war is winnable or that the "decadent and weak pansies" in the West won't dare retaliate with their nukes.
Touch your radiator and find out
I'm afraid you're wrong. It's not just the immediate effects of blast and heat, followed by radiation. Then comes the death of all crops and all other plants due to both radiation and a "nuclear winter" blotting out the sun. No plants > no animals. No plants and no animals > no food.
A few people may survive for some months deep in nuclear bunkers with stored food and water, but those stores will run out eventually, with no means of replacing them.
once again you are wrong. Do you not realize what "sentient" mean? nukes wont kill all animal and plant life on earth(as plants can feel and perceive things so could be considered sentient). There have been mass extinctions before, and im sure a full nuclear war will def result in that (although to be fair with regards to mass extinctions humans are pretty much already causing that on their own as is). Even during the mass extinctions that caused the dinosaurs to die life still recovered, and it would be the same here. Some light will still be able to come thru, and certain species will eeke their way thru. But this is definitely derailing this thread so not quite the place for a scientific breakdown
You don't even need to go that far, even in a full scale nuclear war millions of humans will survive. It doesn't mean desolate wasteland everywhere.
Exactly. I fail to understand how there is so much fuss about this considering all other stuff that is going on.
If I learned anything from the documentary Mad Max it is that humans will survive. So will cars apparently.
I know and we all have that fear. I hope more then anything but also think from a rational point of view that they care about their families and for that reason they will make smart choices. NATO is a huge entity protected by enourmous systems of missile defense systems from all over the Globe. Even if a Nuke war was to happen Russia would explode long before the NATO capabilities would be ended. So even if they were brain washed nationalists, they would know that NATO has a much higher chance of surviving then Russia; self preservation would say not to do stupid things.
Putin has gone crazy a few years ago because of the anti missile system in Romania and EU in general and so, the question is, why risk a nuke war when you know you will be dead before you can even hit your enemy? NATO is much better protected against ICBMs then Russia and so a nuke war is pointless. It would result in major loses for the West and in the end of the Russian civilization. For these reasons I believe the military people there that still care about their families would not allow such a thing to happen.
Nice one.MadMax 1 I dont it was actually a postapoc flick originally was it?
A) How dare you let facts intrude on my joke. This IS THE CE FORM!
B) I don't have a point B, but my English teach taught me you must have multiple points at each level of an outline.
Thought this was an interesting read on American options and interests in all this, although I don't necessarily agree with it at this point. But a decent enough go at mapping the landscape: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-30/perilous-long-game-ukraine
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wasn't this already shown to be fake or was that a different video?
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The rehearsal was shown.
Don't think so. It was speculated that it could have been fake but the Ukrainians said they would investigate. Intercept states Ukrainian journalist has confirmed three dead bodies identified as Russian soldiers in the same location.
Full analysis here: https://theintercept.com/2022/03/31...ntercept&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social