There is hope for Celtics. I think Miami will choke. They are not a better team and first two games were strange. Let's see what happens. Want Miami to win but I smell choke.If, if, if ifffffffffffffffff. Sports are complex. One thing not happening doesn't mean everything else would have happened as it did. Murray was poor in the 4th of last two games in the series and Jokic took over. Maybe Jokic would have played better during the stretch Murray was killing it? Maybe someone else would have made big shots.
I don’t think it is fair to Miami to say they have not been the better team in a series they are leading 3-1.Lot's of teams came back from 3-1
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Nine times in US sports from 0-3 to 3-3 - thrice in the NBA.
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The fact it has happened only 5 times in history across all US sports, and never in the NBA, is not meaningless. It is extremely unlikely but of course not impossible. ESPN having Celtics at 31% even before last night’s game is pure lunacy.
From the (admittedly very little) bits I’ve seen of this guy he seems like a right fecking knobhead.
Ah alright, cheers for that.
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In the modern NBA if you are a negative on offence you can't stay on the court no matter how great your defence
My post wasn't about hypothetical scenarios, it was highlighting how good and impactful Murray was in the series
Yes
Yes, it is. Market is giving celtics now 29% to go through. If you think it is something like less than 10%, you much be extremely wealthy man, with net worth of more than 10m, because I sure as hell can't find that kind of misspricings in something that is as followed as this. I have layed Celtics so I agree they have been and might still be overrated, but by a lot smaller margin than people here seem to think. Something like 25% to go through might be possible when it comes to misspricing. But not 10%, or absolutely not less than 10%.
Has gambling any relevance though?
Why are you even responding to and getting wound up by some 10%?
Of course it has. If the pricing is wrong, there are plenty of smart people in the world willing to bet until the misspricing is not there, or at the very least, is a lot smaller. It sure as hell has much more relevance than clueless posters here rambling on about 0-150.
How is that relevant to actually chances of something happening? As an example the Celtics were largely favored before the serie started and yet they have been largely dominated. Unless I'm missing something gambling odds are just "feelings", they are irrelevant to the actually probabilites of something happening.
Gambling odds are simply a reflection of perceived probability rather than representation of real probability.
Exactly, which make them irrelevant when one is looking at historic statistics. You can't dismiss facts with gambling odds.
He’s right though in pointing out that Celtics are perhaps way more likely than majority of those 150 teams simply because it’s mostly vastly inferior teams that go 3-0 down in the first place.
I agree but it's not based on Vegas' odds.
Teams trailing 3-1 down are actually 13-258 so while it's more likely, it is still an extremely rare occurrence. 95% of time the team 3-1 ahead wins the series.Lot's of teams came back from 3-1
150 is just a number, obviously Celtics are in a better position than many of these teams as they are a closer match for the Heat than your average team being 3-0 down. It’s the 0 that matters, it hasn’t happened yet, it is very unlikely. Even the stat for teams 3-1 down is not very optimistic.
I hope you don't work in risk-management.
I don't, and the Celtics are done
Yeah, but sticking on the 0 totally ignores context of the situation, the simple fact is, it's priced the way it is and ESPN or Five30 have it because they don't care about historical stuff that's irrelevant to this situation, because no ones willing to push them further out on exchanges. Which you or I could influence, which would then shift other odds.
Come on, we can’t treat ESPN seriously on this. They had Miami at 3% before the series started and had Boston at over 30% at 3-0. They are being ridiculous.
It is clear that you don't understand probabilities at all, so why do you keep posting so much about this issue.
Phew, that's a relief.
Betting odds follow the money and of course people are going to be putting it on Celtics because they’ve been told Celtics are awesome and Miami are utter and complete garbage. In popular markets like this one the odds are largely going to reflect your average gambler’s perception.
