ARSENAL OFFICIALLY BOTTLE IT! Arsenal fans now backtracking....2nd will be a great season for us! Surely that has to be seen as a failure??

[GoonerBear]

Annoyingly, United have fallen apart to a similar extent.

Arsenal have 15 points from their last 10 fixtures. We're on 16 from 9.

City have 27 from 9
Liverpool 23 from 10
Villa 20 from 10
Newcastle 20 from 9

If we had matched Liverpool’s form we would be in with a shout of finishing ahead of Arsenal (I think?)

I think what else it shows is how important it is to have all your main players fit, and firing, coming into the business end of the season.

I get the bottle narrative, i've no issues with that now.

But it's no coincidence, that the likes of Utd, Liverpool and us have performed best when we have our best side out, i mean that's not rocket science. Liverpool got their act together last 3rd of the season, when they managed to get a settled team and formation, but were struggling more with injuries for the first half of the season. Utd have rightly struggled with Varane and Martinez out. We lost Saliba and Tomiyasu, and have tried to chop and change players like Holding and Kiwior and just haven't found the right balance since.

We aren't City, that can take an Ake out, and put a Laporte in, or take an Akanji out, and put a Kyle Walker in.

I'm not excusing our run in, mentally we were poor, of that there is no doubt. Plus, injuries are a part of football, we had been extremely lucky for most of the season so i'm not complaining, plus you need to learn to cope with them, and that's something we all need to get stronger at to compete with City.

But it is something that needs taken into account for a full analysis. Newcastle have the 2nd best defence by far. Pope, Burn and Trippier have played every game i think, Botman & Schar maybe have missed 2? Having that sort of consistency is a great base.

 

[Ventura]

Great season by Arsenal and a well deserved Premier League title! Next time it could be us, and we still have a chance to beat Newcastle to second place this season.

 

[Siorac]

Weren't we were trailing you by like 12-15 points around the turn of the year and then we went a great run in the second half of the season culminating in that defeat at OT which knocked the stuffing out of us and we failed to win either of our final two games. That title never really felt like it was on the cards for us. I remember being surprised with the OT game on the horizon that we had closed the gap so much.

It seems you're right: for example, after matchday 25, Chelsea were 12 points behind United and Arsenal looked like the main challengers.

Still, with three games to go the title was very realistic: had you won that game at Old Trafford, you would have been top with two games to go. The goal difference was so close it would have been hard to predict who comes out on top. That Hernández goal after 19 seconds is still one of my favourite memories as a United fan. Can't really start a title decider better than that.

 

[Zebs]

Just realised Juventus dropping out of the Serie A CL places due to the points deduction has bumped Arsenal up into Pot 2 for next season's group stage seedings. They were in Pot 3 otherwise with United in Pot 2. It would have been extra salt in the wounds if we'd finished below them in the league but were higher seeds.

 

[awop]

Just realised Juventus dropping out of the Serie A CL places due to the points deduction has bumped Arsenal up into Pot 2 for next season's group stage seedings. They were in Pot 3 otherwise with United in Pot 2. It would have been extra salt in the wounds if we'd finished below them in the league but were higher seeds.

Bottling Pot 2 would have been a devastating blow that i doubt we'd recover from.

 

[Zebs]

Bottling Pot 2 would have been a devastating blow that i doubt we'd recover from.

Someone's a bit sensitive considering I didn't mention anything about bottling (although yes, in a bottling thread).

I just thought it'd be funny for United to finish 1/2 places below you and still end up with an easier CL draw but Juventus have fecked that.

 

[Fully Fledged]

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And this is why we laugh at Arsenal fans.

 

[noodlehair]

Annoyingly, United have fallen apart to a similar extent.

Arsenal have 15 points from their last 10 fixtures. We're on 16 from 9.

City have 27 from 9
Liverpool 23 from 10
Villa 20 from 10
Newcastle 20 from 9

If we had matched Liverpool’s form we would be in with a shout of finishing ahead of Arsenal (I think?)

Yeah but I think with us its more just a case that we had a lot of games and don't really have a squad capable of handling more than 1-2 injuries (or even out of form players) without it significantly affecting performance and momentum. I mean we can barely even score a goal if Rashford isn't there or firing.

Nwcastle are the weird one for me because every time I watch them I still think they look a bit shite. Probably the best I've seen them play was at home to us and even then we were absolutely hopeless to the point I think any team in the top half would have comfortably rolled us over.

 

[RedPed]

Dortmund and Al Nassr doing their best to take the heat off Arsenal. There has to be a serious question about who have been the biggest bottlers this season.

 

[matt10000]

I can't believe how the Arsenal fans and now quite a few pundits are letting the club off easy if they fail to win the league this season. They were all full of themselves when 9 points clear a few weeks back and constantly taking the piss out of United and others. There was all the talk about no team being in their position at the turn of the year and not going on to win the league. All the chants and social media crap about them bagging the title and Fraudteta being the best thing since sliced bread. All the constant talk about them cooking something special this season.

Yet now that they're having a bit of a wobble and now suddenly finishing 2nd is a great season for them, signs of real progress and they weren't expecting to win the title at the start of the season anyway. The ironic thing is United would end up having a better season than them if they do finish 2nd.. They're not accepting that this would be a massive bottle job if they blow it now.

I can't see how it would be anything else but. Their fans are so deluded.

If you discount all City points for cheating then unofficially they won it in my wyes, good luck to them

 

[Mb194dc]

Dortmund and Al Nassr doing their best to take the heat off Arsenal. There has to be a serious question about who have been the biggest bottlers this season.

Dortmund for sure. Just needed to win against a team with nothing to play for, at home, 1 down miss a penalty then concede again straight after. Will haunt them for years.

Arsenal had no right to be top, they're 4th in xPTS now, they just got lucky earlier in the season and it ran out.

 

[ColvaleGoa]

Funniest thing I saw this morning!

 

[tenpoless]

Funniest thing I saw this morning!

Don't buy their narrative change. This video is a living proof they're so sure they're gonna win the league.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Dortmund for sure. Just needed to win against a team with nothing to play for, at home, 1 down miss a penalty then concede again straight after. Will haunt them for years.

Arsenal had no right to be top, they're 4th in xPTS now, they just got lucky earlier in the season and it ran out.

Who are the top three? And what the hell is xPTS?

 

[Mb194dc]

Who are the top three? And what the hell is xPTS?

City, Newcastle, Brighton. Expected points based on a statistical model. Shows if teams are lucky or not essentially. Over large sample sizes, xPTS should closely match actual points. E,g 500 games. On a season basis, there can be significant variance, like Arsenal this one.

Only 1 expected point between Arsenal, Newcastle and Brighton, so tight. City are miles ahead.

 

[horsechoker]

Arse are such a meme, 3 up, they've gone back to 1970s Brazil now the pressures off

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

Typical Arsenal. Turn up when the pressures off and nothing to play for.

 

[GoonerBear]

Sneaked into Pot 2 with Juventus defeat tonight.

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[Changeisgood]

Would like to avoid Barca and Bayern particularly. PSG and Napoli would be difficult too.

 

[MonsieurGooner]

Typical Arsenal. Turn up when the pressures off and nothing to play for.

Even if that is the case. Majority of the season are 'no pressure' games. We are too good to not get more than 75 points at a minimum.

People say we wont be able to replicate our style of football next year, dont know why though. We absolutely will maintain a high press and highline with Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard and Jesus getting touches in and around the opposition 18 yard box. Do people think the silky passing dill dry up? Based on what?

We will be better next season, the right profile signings, and orgnaic growth in Saliba, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli who still have higher levels they can reach

 

[Dumbstar]

Even if that is the case. Majority of the season are 'no pressure' games. We are too good to not get more than 75 points at a minimum.

People say we wont be able to replicate our style of football next year, dont know why though. We absolutely will maintain a high press and highline with Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard and Jesus getting touches in and around the opposition 18 yard box. Do people think the silky passing dill dry up? Based on what?

We will be better next season, the right profile signings, and orgnaic growth in Saliba, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli who still have higher levels they can reach

Don't mean to be negative but because 1) PL teams generally work out a way to play against you (unless you're City obviously because they two first XIs paid off the books). And 2) I've bolded players that I was shocked to see uninjured for so long this season. It was a perfect storm. I'm not wishing ill health on them, quite the contrary I love watching these guys in full flow, specially Martinelli.

It's one thing to sneak up on the PL for a season. It's quite another when other PL teams see you coming from a distance and adjust accordingly.

 

[MonsieurGooner]

Don't mean to be negative but because 1) PL teams generally work out a way to play against you (unless you're City obviously because they two first XIs paid off the books). And 2) I've bolded players that I was shocked to see uninjured for so long this season. It was a perfect storm. I'm not wishing ill health on them, quite the contrary I love watching these guys in full flow, specially Martinelli.

It's one thing to sneak up on the PL for a season. It's quite another when other PL teams see you coming from a distance and adjust accordingly.

Never really believed teams 'figure out' how to play teams.

By the way, what is the way to play against Arsenal?

 

[BorisManUtd]

Finished the season on 84 points which is their best points tally since the Invincibles and 3rd best since the PL started (after 90 in 03/04 and 87 in 01/02). I agree they bottled it because they were 1st for most of the season and then dropped points after being 2-0 up twice + that 3-3 vs Southampton at home (plus lost both games vs City), but no one saw Arsenal in title race back in August. Top 4 finish was seen as their realistic target, not more than that. It's been Arsenal's best season in years.

 

[maniak]

City, Newcastle, Brighton. Expected points based on a statistical model. Shows if teams are lucky or not essentially. Over large sample sizes, xPTS should closely match actual points. E,g 500 games. On a season basis, there can be significant variance, like Arsenal this one.

Only 1 expected point between Arsenal, Newcastle and Brighton, so tight. City are miles ahead.

It sounds like a pretty useless stat then.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Gonna be hilarious watching them crash and burn next season.

 

[Mb194dc]

It sounds like a pretty useless stat then.

It just tells you how good teams actually are or how "lucky". Over small sample sizes there can be a lot of variation.

Arsenal finished 2nd finally and next year probably still top 4 unless big squad changes.

 

[tinfish]

Gonna be hilarious watching them crash and burn next season.

Why do United fans say that?

I'm pretty sure we are gonna get top 4 next season too, pending squad additions and no exodus of 1st team players.

Title challenge? nah....

 

[maniak]

It just tells you how good teams actually are or how "lucky". Over small sample sizes there can be a lot of variation.

Arsenal finished 2nd finally and next year probably still top 4 unless big squad changes.

I suppose it depends what you consider to be accurate enough to be relevant. Basically half the teams have a xP variation around 9 points.

 

[The Corinthian]

Why do United fans say that?

It's the history of the Arsenal.

 

[Changeisgood]

Don't mean to be negative but because 1) PL teams generally work out a way to play against you (unless you're City obviously because they two first XIs paid off the books). And 2) I've bolded players that I was shocked to see uninjured for so long this season. It was a perfect storm. I'm not wishing ill health on them, quite the contrary I love watching these guys in full flow, specially Martinelli.

It's one thing to sneak up on the PL for a season. It's quite another when other PL teams see you coming from a distance and adjust accordingly.

I agree in general. This upcoming season it will be tougher. This has to be a consolidation year of sorts. It is actually fairly easy to drop back down, as indeed Pool did this year and they even had the experience that we are still on the low end with.

We did not get through the season unscathed in terms of injuries throughout the season. Jesus went down for a long period and I would argue did not completely return in the same form at any point. The biggest problem ended up be Saliba going down and the alternative option being taken away that same day, and this was during our tough run of games. We have had horrible luck in recent times and no opposing fans will point that out. I don't think I would call us that lucky overall this season either. The problem is we are not like City where we can simply plug in a like for like substitute. To be fair nobody else but City and maybe Chelsea (although not matched by the same quality) have that.

You are supposed to be able to deal with it with squad depth but we all know there are limits to that. I think some of the limitations were addressed in the last set of transfers but Arteta knows he needs more quality options in order to compete. The problem is he still having to offload players that did not work out. Lots of transfer mistakes prior to the last 2 years or so to get off the books.

 

[miked99]

Arsenal had no right to be top, they're 4th in xPTS now, they just got lucky earlier in the season and it ran out.

There is no alternate reality in which Arsenal should be 4th. They've clearly been the second best team in the league this season. It's not even close. They've had a miles better league season than us or Newcastle.

 

[RedPed]

Disgraceful by Arsenal.

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[NoLogo]

Dortmund for sure. Just needed to win against a team with nothing to play for, at home, 1 down miss a penalty then concede again straight after. Will haunt them for years.

Arsenal had no right to be top, they're 4th in xPTS now, they just got lucky earlier in the season and it ran out.

Yeah, 100% Dortmund. I think that was the worst choke I have ever seen in any professional sport and should be the last warning for us to never sigh players from them again, they seem to breed mental weakness in their players or only recruit the mentally weak.

 

[devil99]

Would like to avoid Barca and Bayern particularly. PSG and Napoli would be difficult too.

Bayern, United, Milan and Sociedad would be my preference

 

[Zagoon]

Don't mean to be negative but because 1) PL teams generally work out a way to play against you (unless you're City obviously because they two first XIs paid off the books). And 2) I've bolded players that I was shocked to see uninjured for so long this season. It was a perfect storm. I'm not wishing ill health on them, quite the contrary I love watching these guys in full flow, specially Martinelli.

It's one thing to sneak up on the PL for a season. It's quite another when other PL teams see you coming from a distance and adjust accordingly.

Teams do find ways to play against you, or at the very least neutralise your impact. This is essentially what happened to Arsenal during the second half of the season, in addition to the pressure and injury factors.

During the first half of the season, when Arsenal reached 50 points, I dont think teams focused enough on how Arsenal were attacking. What teams expect from Arsenal, or at least Wenger's Arsenal is that the team would create dynamic chances based on passing and movement. They did not expect Arsenal to have as many rehearsed attacking movements (or as many attacking automations) this time round. So a team would think they are defending well keeping Arsenal away from their goal, only to be pulled on one side for a player waiting for the space on the other side, ready to attack and score.

Examples of this is the Partey goal at home to Spurs, Odegaard away at Spurs, and you see it again with Jorginho's goal at Villa. In these cases, the attacking automation was to push the defensive line backward and stretch it, with the ball going wide first, and then when the line is stretched and pushed back, pull the ball back into the extra space created centrally for a shot.

Another example was the late Nketiah winner against United at the Emirates. In this situation, the player out wide (Zinchenko) pushes the United defensive line backward when someone goes to mark him, creating the onside position for Nketiah to pounce on in the box.

What happened in the second half of the season is that teams discovered that you MUST NOT give Arsenal a chance to build combinations on the ball AT ALL, in addition to defending against them. This was on display at Goodison Park against Everton, with Everton making sure to disrupt Arsenal's possession and be as physical as possible with them. That resulted in lost possession and far better chances at the counter attack as seen in that game.

Going into next season, teams will probably look to build on that template set by Everton. So you will see teams looking to get more physical with Arsenal, looking to disrupt them and create chances from there. More ball playing teams, with better players like City, United, Liverpool, Chelsea, possibly Newcastle and Brighton, will look to play more combination football to bypass Arsenal, in addition to being more physical.

Arsenal's game is very complicated to play against. You either figure out what they are doing before they do it, or you sit deep and disrupt their play when they get into dangerous zones on the pitch and attack them in transition. A third option is to dominate the ball and force Arsenal to chase shadows. I see more of the deep block and physicality as an approach to Arsenal next season, with only the better teams being able to beat Arsenal by dominating the ball themselves.

I dont see teams having enough to stop Arsenal again next season. Yes they will know what to expect now, but to stop it would be another story.

 

[NoLogo]

Disgraceful by Arsenal.

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Apart from it being funny that Arsenal lead the league for most of the season and still lost it, the decline from Chelsea is also quite hilarious to me. They were ahead of us at some time and finished 12th.

 

[GazTheLegend]

There is no alternate reality in which Arsenal should be 4th. They've clearly been the second best team in the league this season. It's not even close. They've had a miles better league season than us or Newcastle.

It's actually a good advert for xpts that arsenal haven't won the league because I don't even need to look to know that man city are top on xpts. I bet Liverpool are ahead of them even because if we are all being honest here, Liverpool have shown their real selves the last few weeks and there's no way they should ever have finished 5th, absolute abberation of a season for them.

Someone mentioned to me last year something that's stuck with me, sometimes you get a head of steam in a league (you see it a lot in the lower leagues) and the players you have on the pitch are almost irrelevant, you find ways to win every game because every single player is pulling in the same direction. That might not happen next season for arsenal, particularly with European football involved.

 

[bosskeano]

i don't see Odegaard having the same sort of season he did this year and they are losing the leadership from Xhaka even if at his leadership was a bit tumultuous

 

[Raoul]

i don't see Odegaard having the same sort of season he did this year and they are losing the leadership from Xhaka even if at his leadership was a bit tumultuous

If they get a striker they will be in business next year.

 

[Changeisgood]

It's actually a good advert for xpts that arsenal haven't won the league because I don't even need to look to know that man city are top on xpts. I bet Liverpool are ahead of them even because if we are all being honest here, Liverpool have shown their real selves the last few weeks and there's no way they should ever have finished 5th, absolute abberation of a season for them.

Someone mentioned to me last year something that's stuck with me, sometimes you get a head of steam in a league (you see it a lot in the lower leagues) and the players you have on the pitch are almost irrelevant, you find ways to win every game because every single player is pulling in the same direction. That might not happen next season for arsenal, particularly with European football involved.

xG has Man City in first and Arsenal in second... isn't that a better measure?

It's actually a good advert for xpts that arsenal haven't won the league because I don't even need to look to know that man city are top on xpts. I bet Liverpool are ahead of them even because if we are all being honest here, Liverpool have shown their real selves the last few weeks and there's no way they should ever have finished 5th, absolute abberation of a season for them.

Someone mentioned to me last year something that's stuck with me, sometimes you get a head of steam in a league (you see it a lot in the lower leagues) and the players you have on the pitch are almost irrelevant, you find ways to win every game because every single player is pulling in the same direction. That might not happen next season for arsenal, particularly with European football involved.

Unless my final table is wrong it shows us in 2nd on xpts as well. Man Utd is actually down to 6th it looks like.

https://understat.com/league/EPL