I agree, what we are seeing now is Ukraine testing the Russian defenses to get an idea of how strongly Russia is able to respond in different sectors.It is very likely that Ukraine performs some reconnaissance in force operations, the nature of these is that they retreat once they hit heavy resistance.
It is quite probable that Russia will claim that such operations are failed offensives, but that doesn't mean that they ever were meant as such. And of course they always claim lots of Ukrainian losses, that usually can't be true anyways.
Its more or less been like this since Musk took over Twitter.As Ukraine enters into a tighter Opsec phase before the imminent counteroffensive the informational space will be filled in by Russian garbage during the next weeks:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
SUPREME HEADQUARTERSIn other news, its D-Day
Here's an article about what might happen if the dam is blown. Looking at the maps, the East bank (southern at this point) is much lower lying than the West bank so the Russians will bear the brunt of the damage. It seems that Kherson will only have minor flooding in a few areas, while the Russian-occupied side will be inundated. The major issue could be the nuclear plant losing the water that cools it, which I guess could force the Russians to abandon it to let Ukraine deal with it.That amount of water has to do some damage to both sides of the river, no?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
When I google this dam, most of the articles are about the threat if Russia blows it. Are we certain the Ukrainians did? I'm curious to know if Russia would assume they would never do that, so kept a bunch of their troops closer to the river. And I wonder how fast that dam burst is going, fast enough to risk killing troops or just equipment that can't be moved on timeHere's an article about what might happen if the dam is blown. Looking at the maps, the East bank (southern at this point) is much lower lying than the West bank so the Russians will bear the brunt of the damage. It seems that Kherson will only have minor flooding in a few areas, while the Russian-occupied side will be inundated. The major issue could be the nuclear plant losing the water that cools it, which I guess could force the Russians to abandon it to let Ukraine deal with it.
https://cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break/
I'm also curious how they could've done this since it would take quite the hit to blow the dam.
Since the Ukrainians have blamed Russia, it may have been the Russians who blew it. Depending on their lines, it could be a strategic blunder, but when has that stopped the Russians before? Russian state media are now saying it collapsed as a result of damage. There was a NY Times piece a few days ago about how Russians had raised the reservoir to 30 year highs, which could have resulted in the dam collapsing since it had been damaged. Whether they blew it up or not, it seems that it was likely Russian sabotage.When I google this dam, most of the articles are about the threat if Russia blows it. Are we certain the Ukrainians did? I'm curious to know if Russia would assume they would never do that, so kept a bunch of their troops closer to the river. And I wonder how fast that dam burst is going, fast enough to risk killing troops or just equipment that can't be moved on time
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Yes, they have mined the dam when they were retreating.This is the place that we know Russia mined last year, isn't it?
Damn, feels like that would be big. Obviously training, spare parts and armaments are also needed, but could make a big difference.Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Maybe an attempt to slow the counteroffensive? Pretty desperate move in any case and shows that Russia has given up on gaining any new groundIm so confused about the dam thing. How does it benefit Russia to blow it up?
They’re simply terrorizing and destroying Ukraine that’s their sole purpose, they know they won’t be able to keep it so are trying to inflict as much damage and pain behind as possible. This nation and regime are rotten. How does it benefit Russia from military point of view to waste their scarce missiles on bombing civilians in Kyiv or Lviv? It doesn’t, as their goals are always much more sinister.Im so confused about the dam thing. How does it benefit Russia to blow it up?
They can move troops from there now since it’s impossible to pass, the mud alone left behind from the dam ensures that.Im so confused about the dam thing. How does it benefit Russia to blow it up?
The amount of resources Ukraine has to deploy to evacuate and protect the residents in the region disrupts enough to focus on purely military movement. Hence Russians can focus on regrouping and reassuring their own units during the period.Maybe an attempt to slow the counteroffensive? Pretty desperate move in any case and shows that Russia has given up on gaining any new ground