70 is not happening - just have to look at the awful xG numbers
If we can match last season's tally then we are already doing well
If we can match last season's tally then we are already doing well
Where will the goals come from?
- Thread starter Pogue Mahone
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
We'd be doing well in terms of turning round a shitty start but actually not doing well at all. I would consider anything other than an improvement on our measly 58 goals last season as a very disappointing season.
Ask this question in the summer and I'd agree, but at this point we have to be realistic
Yes and no. Even now I'm still hoping that we will play much better in the second half of this season than we did in the second half of last season. And if we play a lot better in the remaining months of this season couldn't we maybe beat our goals tally from 2022/23? That's the expectation, surely? We've invested a lot of money in the squad and we're a year further along in EtH's project. We should really be expecting to see a definite improvement overall. Despite this crappy start, we need to see evidence that we're a team on the up between now and next spring. Otherwise the season's been a failure. IMHO
Bruno 10
Rashford 8
Hojlund 7
McTominay 5
Martial 4
Casemiro 3
Eriksen 2
Garnacho 2
Others 9
50, won't be far away I think. We won't beat last seasons 58.
Rashford 8
Hojlund 7
McTominay 5
Martial 4
Casemiro 3
Eriksen 2
Garnacho 2
Others 9
50, won't be far away I think. We won't beat last seasons 58.
70 goals 
Hojlund 13
Rashford 10
Bruno 10
Garnacho 5
Casemiro 6
Dalot 1
McTominay 6
Maguire 2
Shaw 1
Eriksen 3
Mount 2
Hannibal 2
Varane 2
Martial 7
OG. 3
73 goals. (I think)
Rashford 10
Bruno 10
Garnacho 5
Casemiro 6
Dalot 1
McTominay 6
Maguire 2
Shaw 1
Eriksen 3
Mount 2
Hannibal 2
Varane 2
Martial 7
OG. 3
73 goals. (I think)
The problem with United is who is taking all the shots, and that comes down to the way that Ten Hag has us playing :-
Rashford 34 shots - 1 goal
Bruno 32 shots - 3 goals.
Imagine how many goals Hjoland would score if he had the luxury of over 30 shots.
Rashford 34 shots - 1 goal
Bruno 32 shots - 3 goals.
Imagine how many goals Hjoland would score if he had the luxury of over 30 shots.
If we manage this in the Premiership we will push for top four. And those figures do not suggest anything unattainable. But it needs to start happening.
ETH should print that list out and pin it in the changing room. Also should be the first thing anybody sees as they enter Carrington. Back room staff, the lot.
Single digit goals for Rashford is pathetic. I wouldn’t be printing that out and pinning it anywhere.
In last season, we were 7th for goals from open-play and right at the bottom (20th) for goals from set-pieces. We were pretty good on the counter (topped that particular stat, in fact), but the marginal advantage we got there simply couldn't make up for the glaring underperformance in the other two major categories. 11th for headed goals and 14th for left-footed goals, too.
We seem to have carried some of these habits over to our current campaign. For example, United are 3rd in direct attacks (28), 8th in build-up attacks (27) and 8th, too, in 10+ pass sequences in open-play (134). We are doing slightly better in set-pieces (2 goals already, when we had 5 in the whole of last season), but we are 15th for goals from open-play (9 with an xG 11.56) even though we have taken the 4th most shots (127). Another interesting stat is that we and NF are the only teams in the PL who haven't registered a left-footed goal yet.
You could argue it points to a set-up that still relies heavily on individualists to carry the team over the line. I think you can see it too when you watch United play. More often than not, there's little nuance in our plays but an overwhelming tendency to force the issue. Which could justify the more aggressive approach that has us leading in high turnovers, but we possess neither the execution (0 goals) nor the intelligence/movement on the pitch to generate high quality chances from these situations.
The other obvious observation is the black hole on the right side. The lack of left-footed quality finishes is a stain on Antony's performances for the club, but it goes deeper than that. Part of the parcel of changing to an inverted triangle in the midfield was to have Bruno in a more "contained" role on the right, with Antony (or whoever plays there) providing the width/support and one FB on the overlap/underlap. It works, but only sporadically or... in moments. Wolves, Burnley, Fulham, Forest are some examples but, overall, Bruno will never be able to play the role Odegaard has for Arsenal in the right half-space. Given the situation with Sancho, Antony's problems and the fact that Pellistri is still very raw, there's a serious miscalculation there, which also affects the other side. It adds pressure, while it's a no-brainer to double/triple team against Rashford (or Garnacho).
A side that already suffers from the absence of both Shaw and Martinez. They both offer a lot in the build-up, Shaw is a good support for the way Rashford plays and Martinez is also good at defending the wide areas. It all provides a good platform for Rashford to do his thing, and we depend a lot on Rashford doing his thing.
Finally, Hojlund has to find his place in the side. Either by becoming another individualist who will be picking the pockets of space that suit him in the context of what we're doing on the pitch, or by putting his body on the line to open up spaces for others.
In the end, the goals won't really come from anywhere. Blame the tactics all you want but, overall, it's still a not good enough side that feels in its element when counter-attacking from deep positions and, even then, it remains dependent on the individual form and the natural instincts of its attacking stars rather than in their ability to link up and play combinational football. The so-called "easy goals" have dried up since Rashford and Bruno's loss of form. That's us. I'd worry more about become more solid defensively, if we're to save our season. Because, when you look at it, this is what made the difference last year. If the long-term goal is to increase our numbers, there are lots of things that must be redesigned from scratch. And no, i'm not talking only about Antony.
We seem to have carried some of these habits over to our current campaign. For example, United are 3rd in direct attacks (28), 8th in build-up attacks (27) and 8th, too, in 10+ pass sequences in open-play (134). We are doing slightly better in set-pieces (2 goals already, when we had 5 in the whole of last season), but we are 15th for goals from open-play (9 with an xG 11.56) even though we have taken the 4th most shots (127). Another interesting stat is that we and NF are the only teams in the PL who haven't registered a left-footed goal yet.
You could argue it points to a set-up that still relies heavily on individualists to carry the team over the line. I think you can see it too when you watch United play. More often than not, there's little nuance in our plays but an overwhelming tendency to force the issue. Which could justify the more aggressive approach that has us leading in high turnovers, but we possess neither the execution (0 goals) nor the intelligence/movement on the pitch to generate high quality chances from these situations.
The other obvious observation is the black hole on the right side. The lack of left-footed quality finishes is a stain on Antony's performances for the club, but it goes deeper than that. Part of the parcel of changing to an inverted triangle in the midfield was to have Bruno in a more "contained" role on the right, with Antony (or whoever plays there) providing the width/support and one FB on the overlap/underlap. It works, but only sporadically or... in moments. Wolves, Burnley, Fulham, Forest are some examples but, overall, Bruno will never be able to play the role Odegaard has for Arsenal in the right half-space. Given the situation with Sancho, Antony's problems and the fact that Pellistri is still very raw, there's a serious miscalculation there, which also affects the other side. It adds pressure, while it's a no-brainer to double/triple team against Rashford (or Garnacho).
A side that already suffers from the absence of both Shaw and Martinez. They both offer a lot in the build-up, Shaw is a good support for the way Rashford plays and Martinez is also good at defending the wide areas. It all provides a good platform for Rashford to do his thing, and we depend a lot on Rashford doing his thing.
Finally, Hojlund has to find his place in the side. Either by becoming another individualist who will be picking the pockets of space that suit him in the context of what we're doing on the pitch, or by putting his body on the line to open up spaces for others.
In the end, the goals won't really come from anywhere. Blame the tactics all you want but, overall, it's still a not good enough side that feels in its element when counter-attacking from deep positions and, even then, it remains dependent on the individual form and the natural instincts of its attacking stars rather than in their ability to link up and play combinational football. The so-called "easy goals" have dried up since Rashford and Bruno's loss of form. That's us. I'd worry more about become more solid defensively, if we're to save our season. Because, when you look at it, this is what made the difference last year. If the long-term goal is to increase our numbers, there are lots of things that must be redesigned from scratch. And no, i'm not talking only about Antony.
It was definitely the expectation in the summer but we are already a quarter of the way into the season and playing catch up on last season, Im not sure how many goals we had scored at the same point last year but Im sure it was significantly less. Metrics like xG show that we dont deserve any more goals than we have scored either.
Until our injury situation improves then I dont think its realistic to expect a huge improvement on last season so news that Martinez & Casemiro are out until probably next year and still no sign of Luke Shaw (I realise that these are not the players we rely on for goals but its more about general play) means I am massively revising my expectations for the remainder of this season.
At this point I'll be happy if we can match our goal tally from last year.
I swear we must be the only club in the world where fans massively downgrade their expectations for goals scored because a couple of defenders and a DM are out injured....
literally just added an edit as I knew you would say that !
Those 3 were absolutely vital to our build up play and general structure last season
I agree, but it's a start. I have stated on a seperate thread, that Rashford should be given the captaincy and be challenged to hit 20 goals this season. He has the talent and the captaincy should focus his mind and develop his character.
Hojlund 12
Rashford 10
Garnacho 6
McTominay 6
Bruno 5
Mount 5
Casemiro 4
Martial 4
Maguire 3
Eriksen 2
Amrabat 1
Varane 1
Dalot 1
Antony 0
=60 max
Rashford 10
Garnacho 6
McTominay 6
Bruno 5
Mount 5
Casemiro 4
Martial 4
Maguire 3
Eriksen 2
Amrabat 1
Varane 1
Dalot 1
Antony 0
=60 max
The other team.
That's a depressing stat
Great post and you nail it with the last paragraph. Make no mistake , ETH has his role to play in all of this as well however it comes down to intelligence, movement and execution. Most of us were hoping good coaching could help but Rashford and Bruno are pretty much finished products at this point of their careers. Until they are phased out our overall cohesiveness which leads to constant good chance creation will suffer. People who advocated for Ralf realized that it has to be redesigned from scratch, however it seems ETH took the conservative approach which led to decent results in his first year but not enough of the footballing foundations needed to elevate to the next level. I also agree that our best bet to do anything of note this season is to be defensively solid first then scrape goals however we can get them.
That whole list is a fecking tragedy and not just the way he spelt Casemiro.
Not all shooting opportunities are created equal though. I know that Rashford has missed at least a couple of big chances, but aren't most of Bruno's misses difficult/desperate shots with very low xG?
Last season we were ineffective for the most part. This season we don't seem to create good chances either. We almost never outplay our opponent.
To look at it another way:
- take last seasons 58
- lose Rashford's unexpected purple patch
- lose Sancho (6 goals)
- lose Casemiro (set piece threat)
- lose left side build up
- add Hojlund (low expectations)
There's very few reasons to expect improvement.
i dont know but some of them lads would want to be getting started, I have always been a bit disappointed that big Harry did not score more goals , that head is made to smash in corners ala Steve Bruce.
Own Goal has 8 league goals across the last 7 seasons, hardly reliable anymore.
The team relied on Rashfords form last year. Without his worldie form, the team would have done nothing. I hoped that we had adressed that apparent problem in the offseason, but the striker we opted to splurge on has so far seen 0 goals with 8 appearances. Antony, Garnacho, Martial both with 0 PL goals to their credit. Our leading goalscorer is Scottt McTominay and Bruno Fernandes with 3.
Whoever is in charge of the finishing currently is not doing a good job.
Whoever is in charge of the finishing currently is not doing a good job.
Mate, what is it you've seen this season that makes you think Rashford is going to score 19 goals in the next 27 league matches? He is absolutely hapless.
We have 12 goals in 11 matches, and the weakest attacking prowess I've ever seen in a United club. At the rate we're going we'll be lucky to hit 50 in the league. 70 goals is dreaming.
Rashford 10
Hojlund 12
Martial 3
Bruno 8
Mount 4
Antony 2
McTominay 5
Casemiro 4
Eriksen 3
Dalot 2
Varane 1
Pellistri 2
Garnacho 7
63
Hojlund 12
Martial 3
Bruno 8
Mount 4
Antony 2
McTominay 5
Casemiro 4
Eriksen 3
Dalot 2
Varane 1
Pellistri 2
Garnacho 7
63
Well, it wasn't my intention to focus only on these two. There are plenty of other threads for just that. But since you mentioned it, and in the spirit of this thread, i often wonder what's the expectation here. I mean, we can all agree that the counter-attacking tactics with Bruno and Rashford at the heart of them peaked between the second half of 19/20 and the end of 20/21. Rashford (17 & 11 PL goals) and Bruno (8 & 18 - in a season and a half) gave us 25+ goals per season. This didn't change under ETH. Last season, Rashford matched his best PL tally (17 goals) and Bruno added another 8 goals. And that was with Martial rarely being available for selection. I'd venture a step further and argue that last season's contributions from these two can look more impressive in the context of 3 goals scored from penalties throughout the season compared to the 20 we put in the bag during the two aforementioned seasons. It still wasn't enough to mount a serious challenge.
We spent the entire summer crying out for a forward able to lead the line and spearhead the attack with his presence and his runs inside the box. He would supposedly increase our numbers simply by being in the right place at the right time and by being able to create chances for himself. All this despite the existing evidence suggesting that whenever we have such a player in the side (Lukaku, Cavani, Ronaldo) Rashford's numbers take a hit. That's mainly because Rashford, with his finisher instincts, wants to end up in the same spaces inside the box.
In enters Martial with his 17 PL goals in 19/20. A player doesn't attempt a lot of runs in-behind, but prefers to drift toward that left-half-space, thus allowing Rashford the opportunity to cut inside and attack the box. But this also leaves an empty space centrally that has to be filled otherwise the opposition centre-halves will always be afforded the time to read the game and adjust to any threat. Now, we have Greenwood. Not exactly the generational talent some want him to be but, nevertheless, a very good finisher, two-footed and able to provide a threat from that right half-space. So, in the end, we get three forwards playing very narrow and one free-roaming playmaker trying to serve them goals. Which gave us 66 & 73 goals, a low block and the beauty that is McFred.
These are the days when, according to some, we were playing good football. No width, basic link-up play with no third-man runs, not a single deep run from the midfield, both FBs very cautious with their movement. Three "catch and shoot" forwards and "quick draw" Bruno. Now, you can pile on Hojlund because he's neither Cavani nor Martial. Antony is no Greenwood, that pretty much is clear. Don't forget that the midfield needs workhorses, too. Add someone direct who can play on the right and offer end-product because Sancho hasn't managed to live up to his price tag. The consensus seems to be that we have to go back to what we were doing. Attacking threat as the accumulation of individual talent.
The question is, to what end? As you said, ETH must shoulder a portion of the blame because he hasn't convinced anyone yet that some other way is possible. But what are people expecting here? It's never as easy as "buying" goals and adding them to the ones you already (believe you) have. Team sports don't work like that. It's the synergies between the players and the variables they offer on the pitch that does the trick. But didn't we do that with RvP in Fergie's last season? No, we didn't. Both in 2009-10 & 2011-12, we scored more goals than in 2012-13 (very close, but still). The Dutchman was brought in because SAF knew that Rooney couldn't lead the line any more. But the plan was already in place. Accommodations were made, of course, but we signed RvP to score the goals we knew we could create. He wasn't the system, and he adjusted to Ferguson's style as much as the tactics adjusted to him. Right now, we are a team that resists change. For a second season in a row, the best course of action is to go back to what we know. Even if we know that it will get us nowhere in the long-term.
66 shots for 4 goals certainly is. They need to be reprimanded for it
Hojlund 15
Rashford 15
Garnacho 6
Bruno 11
Casemiro. 4
Mount 2
McTominay 7
Eriksen 2
Varane 3
Dalot 4
Maguire 2
Martial 4
Antony 2
AwB. 2
Others 2
82 Baby....
Rashford 15
Garnacho 6
Bruno 11
Casemiro. 4
Mount 2
McTominay 7
Eriksen 2
Varane 3
Dalot 4
Maguire 2
Martial 4
Antony 2
AwB. 2
Others 2
82 Baby....
You really think 70 goals is possible? Or is this a "if we score 70 how does it happen?" question
I didn't want to pile on those two either but they do form the core of our attacking plan and product. I appreciate the detailed breakdown and largely agree with your points. A year and a half into ETH's reign and we should at least be able to see the new plan/system being implemented but it seems as far away as it ever was. He seems to shoehorn those two players into every team selection and ask them to do things we know they are not capable of. Like you say what is the expectation/vision? Unless ETH can show us on the pitch, his days are numbered.
The glaring issue in these predictions is that no one expects Antony to contribute anything of note. We know he doesn't create anything for others either so what's the point.
He has to be replaced with a player that can actually create if we're going to get anything out of Hojlund. We're stuck with Rashford on the other side.
He has to be replaced with a player that can actually create if we're going to get anything out of Hojlund. We're stuck with Rashford on the other side.
Yeah that's a poor effort, needs replacing.
I'm afraid we will score an even lower goal tally. I hope to be proven wrong.
Rashford 9
Hojlund 16
Martial 5
Bruno 11
Antony 2
McTominay 8
Casemiro 4
Eriksen 3
Dalot 2
Varane 1
Maguire 1
Hannibal 1
Mount 1
Amrabat 1
Shaw 1
Garnacho 6
Evans 1
=74
Hojlund 16
Martial 5
Bruno 11
Antony 2
McTominay 8
Casemiro 4
Eriksen 3
Dalot 2
Varane 1
Maguire 1
Hannibal 1
Mount 1
Amrabat 1
Shaw 1
Garnacho 6
Evans 1
=74
I reckon 57 would be a major ask for our side.
This thread should be renamed, Where Will The Chances Come From, as that is our issues right now.
We are not creating anything.
It may not be fashionable, but we need to start getting balls into Hojland and that means playing a right footer on the right and maybe even a left footer on the left, or at least someone who can cross with their left.
Two of his 3 goals v Finland, as well as multiple chances, game from right footed cross from the right, and likewise from the left.
We are not creating anything.
It may not be fashionable, but we need to start getting balls into Hojland and that means playing a right footer on the right and maybe even a left footer on the left, or at least someone who can cross with their left.
Two of his 3 goals v Finland, as well as multiple chances, game from right footed cross from the right, and likewise from the left.
Where will the goals come from?
The most important question ETH faced this summer and his only answer was bringing in a promising but unproven striker. We're all on board with Hojlund but realistically no one expects him to score 10 goals in the PL this season.
A shame how this club is managed.
The most important question ETH faced this summer and his only answer was bringing in a promising but unproven striker. We're all on board with Hojlund but realistically no one expects him to score 10 goals in the PL this season.
A shame how this club is managed.
A more experienced striker may have been a better option (if available for the price we‘d pay) but I think the issue is we’re not creating much and not playing to Hojlunds strengths.
His pace and movement … we should be playing through balls behind the back line or early crosses. We’ve got selfish and one footed wide players.
As much as I don’t rate Antony, I’d be interested to see him play left (if Garnacho not available).