FAO xG Nerds

Pogue Mahone · Mar 4, 2024

Haaland's miss was 0.89 xG (a penalty is 0.7)
Rashford's goal was 0.03 xG

Does anyone know the goal with the lowest official xG and/or miss with the highest official xG?

Scandi Red · Mar 4, 2024

Pogue Mahone said:
Haaland's miss was 0.89 xG

What the hell? To me that chance looks more like 0.99 xG. As in you expect to score that 99 times out of 100.

Does VAR not take the goalkeeper position into account? Useless stat if not.

Pogue Mahone · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
What the hell? To me that chance looks more like 0.99 xG. As in you expect to score that 99 times out of 100.

Does VAR not take the goalkeeper position into account? Useless stat if not.

Apparently a Noggie commentator said he would usually score that chance 11 times out of 10.

Annihilate Now! · Mar 4, 2024

Pogue Mahone said:
Haaland's miss was 0.89 xG (a penalty is 0.7)
Rashford's goal was 0.03 xG

Does anyone know the goal with the lowest official xG and/or miss with the highest official xG?

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pocco · Mar 4, 2024

Garnacho overhead against Everton has to be 0xG.

tomaldinho1 · Mar 4, 2024

Pogue Mahone said:
Haaland's miss was 0.89 xG (a penalty is 0.7)
Rashford's goal was 0.03 xG

Does anyone know the goal with the lowest official xG and/or miss with the highest official xG?

Kanu if xG was a thing back then. Closer than Haaland's and not in the air.

Annihilate Now! · Mar 4, 2024

tomaldinho1 said:
Kanu if xG was a thing back then. Closer than Haaland's and not in the air.

Trying to think of the worst miss I've seen since XG became a thing, and the worst I could think of was Sterling away at. Lyon in the CL Quater Final.

That had an XG of 0.87 as well apparently.

Spiersey · Mar 4, 2024

XG isn't recorded for Canadian Prem, but this one is almost definitely a 0.99xg miss.

Ole'sattheWheel · Mar 4, 2024

pocco said:
Garnacho overhead against Everton has to be 0xG.

I do remember an opta tweet saying it broke their xG model

Withnail · Mar 4, 2024

Spiersey said:
XG isn't recorded for Canadian Prem, but this one is almost definitely a 0.99xg miss.

I'd be checking that dude's betting activity. He didn't even seem that bothered :lol:

Ole'sattheWheel · Mar 4, 2024

I always remember this being “the worst miss I’ve ever seen” for a good 10 years

Oranges038 · Mar 4, 2024

High xg. John Carew.

Low xg. Maynor Figueroa

SalfordRed18 · Mar 4, 2024

Spiersey said:
XG isn't recorded for Canadian Prem, but this one is almost definitely a 0.99xg miss.

Anyone look into his betting history?

Scandi Red · Mar 4, 2024

Spiersey said:
XG isn't recorded for Canadian Prem, but this one is almost definitely a 0.99xg miss.

Actually that's 0 xG as he kicks the ball away from goal! :lol:

Match-fixing?

whitbyviking · Mar 4, 2024

Isn't Ronny Rosenthal the famous example of a 0.99 miss?

Annihilate Now! · Mar 4, 2024

I enjoyed this the other day too:

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A game that finished almost exactly as it should have done.

Tom Cato · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
What the hell? To me that chance looks more like 0.99 xG. As in you expect to score that 99 times out of 100.

Does VAR not take the goalkeeper position into account? Useless stat if not.

It had a weird inbetween angle between header and high leg kick, so I get that he opted for foot, but should have gone with head.

Does xG take into account head v foot and distance? Headers have a lesser chance of hitting the net than foot, one would presume.

Obviously its a colossal miss, but Ive seen worse

Mike Smalling · Mar 4, 2024

Surely xG from a goal doesn't get much lower than these kind of goalkeeper clearances.

Vidyoyo · Mar 4, 2024

Ole'sattheWheel said:
I always remember this being “the worst miss I’ve ever seen” for a good 10 years

Terrible miss. It's amazing to think had he converted it he'd be on 878 career goals. The fact he isn't must tear him apart

bosnian_red · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
What the hell? To me that chance looks more like 0.99 xG. As in you expect to score that 99 times out of 100.

Does VAR not take the goalkeeper position into account? Useless stat if not.

There's been worse chances missed... It's a volley from a cross, he has to time it, easy enough to miskick it... Still a massive miss mind you, a pen is about 0.78xG for example because they're scored about that percentage of time.

Goalkeeper position and other players is looked at, pressure on the ball, height at which the ball is kicked (a shot from the ground is easier than a volley or header for example). Saying a chance like that is missed 1 in 10 times is probably fair. It always seems crazy when it's missed, but it does get missed.

horsechoker · Mar 4, 2024

Vidyoyo said:
Terrible miss. It's amazing to think had he converted it he'd be on 878 career goals. The fact he isn't must tear him apart

This is why we sold him

Scandi Red · Mar 4, 2024

bosnian_red said:
Saying a chance like that is missed 1 in 10 times is probably fair. It always seems crazy when it's missed, but it does get missed.

2-3 yards from an open goal. Under no pressure. Chest height. More than a full second to react. Sees the ball the entire time.

I have also seen worse misses, but I think a professional footballer should score those more than 9 times out of 10. Him deciding to not use his head did make it unnecessarily hard, but I don't think this should be taken into account. That's Haaland's mistake after all. If I decide to score with my dick in front an open goal with plenty of time to get erect, then the xG shouldn't drop.

bosnian_red · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
2-3 yards from an open goal. Under no pressure. Chest height. More than a full second to react. Sees the ball the entire time.

I have also seen worse misses, but I think a professional footballer should score those more than 9 times out of 10. Him deciding to not use his head did make it unnecessarily hard, but I don't think this should be taken into account. That's Haaland's mistake after all. If I decide to score with my dick in front an open goal with plenty of time to get erect, then the xG shouldn't drop.

They should but also they just don't score them quite that often...

And yeah the xG of the chance is affected by how the player chose to shoot. I don't think a header makes it more likely though, you see players miss simple headers all the time.

adexkola · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
What the hell? To me that chance looks more like 0.99 xG. As in you expect to score that 99 times out of 100.

Does VAR not take the goalkeeper position into account? Useless stat if not.

But that's based on your own (armchair) subjectivity.

The numbers say that 87% of shots at that location have been scored.

Some VAR models take goalkeeper position into account, but even if they don't, it's not a useless stat, because the number would represent the average possibility of shots at that point, whether a goalkeeper was there or not.

The value of xG is not in absolute determinations, it's in relative determinations. No one cares about the exact xG of Haaland's chance except xG pedants, but the xG model recognizes that in a specific framework, Haaland was more of a high quality chance than the first Foden goal, and a lot of good insights can be derived in this framework.

Annihilate Now! · Mar 4, 2024

adexkola said:
But that's based on your own (armchair) subjectivity.

The numbers say that 87% of shots at that location have been scored.

Some VAR models take goalkeeper position into account, but even if they don't, it's not a useless stat, because the number would represent the average possibility of shots at that point, whether a goalkeeper was there or not.

I really don't think that would be missed once in every 10 though.

Rood · Mar 4, 2024

Problem nowadays is that there is no accepted xG value - different models give different numbers

already 2 different numbers given for the Haaland miss for example (0.89 v 0.93), yes it's a small difference but the totals over a whole match can often be quite different

Pogue Mahone · Mar 4, 2024

Mike Smalling said:
Surely xG from a goal doesn't get much lower than these kind of goalkeeper clearances.

Yeah, they’d have to be 0.01 xG. Although I dunno if one has been scored in the xG era?

P-Ro · Mar 4, 2024

Pretty sure there's an xG of 0 when Timo Werner is put through one on one with a goalkeeper.

STYLOISRED · Mar 4, 2024

tomaldinho1 said:
Kanu if xG was a thing back then. Closer than Haaland's and not in the air.

Yakubu Aiyegbeni's miss against South Korea at the 2010 world cup has to be the worse miss I've ever seen in my entire life.

Tarrou · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
What the hell? To me that chance looks more like 0.99 xG. As in you expect to score that 99 times out of 100.

Does VAR not take the goalkeeper position into account? Useless stat if not.

as I understand xG stats come from the average scoring rate from that the exact same position on the field

so you could have a chance there in that spot right in front of the keeper or a defender and it's blocked, or a corner whipped in that's a bit too high to keep down

Mike Smalling · Mar 4, 2024

Tarrou said:
as I understand xG stats come from the average scoring rate from that the exact same position on the field

so you could have a chance there in that spot right in front of the keeper or a defender and it's blocked, or a corner whipped in that's a bit too high to keep down

No, xG also takes into account the position of the opposing players, the type of pass that leads to the chance, which body part it is attempted with, and so on. It is much more detailed than simply the position of the shot.

Zehner · Mar 4, 2024

P-Ro said:
Pretty sure there's an xG of 0 when Timo Werner is put through one on one with a goalkeeper.

Actually, it is zero even if the goal is empty

TheRedDevil'sAdvocate · Mar 4, 2024

This season, as per Understat:

a) Goals valued at 0.01 xG (sorry, but i can't put timestamps in the videos)

1. Jared Bowen's deflected shot in WHU's defeat at Villa Park.
2. Simon Andigra's effort following a comedy of errors in Liverpool's build-up.
3. Andreas Pereira doing the same thing at the Emirates.
4. Philip Billing's lob that won the game for Bournemouth against Burnley.
5. Jefferson Lerma's wonder shot against Chelsea.
6. Danilo's volley in the Brentford-Forest game.
7. Jacob Bruun Larsen's winner for Burnley vs Luton.
8. Charlie Taylor's goal in Bournemouth vs Burnley.
9. Declan Rice gets Arsenal back in the game l in the London derby.

The chance with the highest xG that wasn't converted occurred in the Spurs-Villa game when, in the 81st minute, Ollie Watkins' header (valued at 0.94xG) failed to find its target.

Scandi Red · Mar 4, 2024

TheRedDevil'sAdvocate said:
The chance with the highest xG that wasn't converted occurred in the Spurs-Villa game when, in the 81st minute, Ollie Watkins' header (valued at 0.94xG) failed to find its target.

I'd love to see a video of that. It should be worse than Haaland's miss based on that.

Jev · Mar 4, 2024

Am I the only one who doesn’t think that Haaland miss is as bad as everyone is making out? It comes to him at a very awkward height. I could see a lot of players similarly struggling to figure out how to go about finishing that one.

P-Ro · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
I'd love to see a video of that. It should be worse than Haaland's miss based on that.

Given there's nowt about it online I'm tempted to believe it's one of those headers from 2 yards out where the ball is too high or behind him so it's just not possible to head it on target. It probably appears to be a huge miss for xG purposes but in reality it was a hard one to score.

TheRedDevil'sAdvocate · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
I'd love to see a video of that. It should be worse than Haaland's miss based on that.

Sadly, couldn't find it on YT.

Jev said:
Am I the only one who doesn’t think that Haaland miss is as bad as everyone is making out? It comes to him at a very awkward height. I could see a lot of players similarly struggling to figure out how to go about finishing that one.

Understat, who values it (only) at 0.66xG, kind of agrees with you. I think that if he uses his head or just throws his body at the ball to keep it down and take the pace off it, it's the easiest goal you'll score. He basically made it more difficult for himself.

Moby · Mar 4, 2024

Jev said:
Am I the only one who doesn’t think that Haaland miss is as bad as everyone is making out? It comes to him at a very awkward height. I could see a lot of players similarly struggling to figure out how to go about finishing that one.

Yeah it wasn't a perfect tap in but he needs to literally just touch it and he had enough time to adjust, it was a terrible miss in the end.

Jev · Mar 4, 2024

Moby said:
Yeah it wasn't a perfect tap in but he needs to literally just touch it and he had enough time to adjust, it was a terrible miss in the end.

Absolutely, I’m not saying it wasn’t a bad miss, just from the talk after the game you’d think it was the miss of the century, which I think is going a little overboard.

Annihilate Now! · Mar 4, 2024

Scandi Red said:
I'd love to see a video of that. It should be worse than Haaland's miss based on that.

Bad miss - but Haaland's is way worse

TheRedDevil'sAdvocate said:
Sadly, couldn't find it on YT.

Understat, who values it (only) at 0.66xG, kind of agrees with you. I think that if he uses his head or just throws his body at the ball to keep it down and take the pace off it, it's the easiest goal you'll score. He basically made it more difficult for himself.

Again, no chance that players miss a chance like that every 3.5 out of 10 times.

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