Sinema has announced she isn't running for re-election.
2024 U.S. Elections
- Thread starter Raoul
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Expected, she knows she would get embarrassed.
Good news for Gallego.
Good news for Gallego.
In 2016, polls made a 1% mistake with Clinton. They said that she would win with a 3% margin and she won by 2%. But electoral college
In 2020, the polls overestimated Biden by 3.3% and it was one of the worse lately
When we talk about the more prestigious polls, the margin of error narrows down
So if the polls shows Trump in the lead for 3-5% and Biden needs to win the popular for 3%. That means that the error should be more than 6-8% Too much to ignore that Trump is looking the favourite FOR NOW. Hopefully, as we are going closer to november, the polls will change
But as for now, Trump looks like the next president
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So the last thing that Chief Justice cnut in Alabama did before being aged out of his position was the IVF horseshit.
Given what’s at stake I think Biden should do the right thing and drop out as I think he’s the only candidate that Trump can beat.
He should, but he is not gonna, lets hope he limps over the finish line in November.
On the flip side, Trump is probably the only candidate Biden can beat at this point, Haley would comfortably beat Biden.
Haley will get her 30-40%, which is good. This could be the most important group of voters to target in the GE.
Haley is getting shat upon, curbstomped and teabagged hard in Texas. 
I mean, yeah, it wasn't ever gonna end any other way.Haley is getting shat upon, curbstomped and teabagged hard in Texas.
Primaries don't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but Cruz will have to underperform the top of the ticket a good bit for him to lose.
Steve K. keeps talking about 40%. That’s not an easy number to hit against the leader of the party. Haley has places with 20+%, places with 30+, and others with 40+. Frankly, that’s not bad at all.
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"Polls are accurate"
Just to add to that: most polls about the GOP primary give Trump 80% or more. That’s far from what we have seen thus far. Yes, some Southern states will give him 70-80%, but I doubt that he will get to 80% nationally in this primary.
Might depend on how long Texan's memories last, fecking off to Cancun during massive power outages in a cold and snowy winter didn't go down very well. doubt it will cost him enough but you never know
I don't actually follow what goes on in Tennesse or whatever, those states are a foregone conclusion, Michigan, or even Virginia, to a lesser extent, are not places you want to have a big underperformance, even in the primaries.
You mean underperformance by Trump?
Yes.
I agree. I have been talking about this since the beginning of the primary season.
The primary results don’t paint the same picture like the general-election polls for Trump.
Haley leads in VT with 5/6 of the votes in.
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Now, primaries are usually more inaccurate than general elections, but do i believe that Trump will underperform by a few points? Yes i do.
Few points in a couple of battleground states is all it takes to swing an election, this is going to be a close election.
Yes, primary polls are less accurate than GE polls. What’s interesting, though, is that the misses of the polls are not random, but tend to overestimate the support of Trump.
Polls needs to narrow more the advantage to be on the margin of error that can make Biden the winner even if it doesn't show he is not. If prestigious polls don't move from 3-5% lead for Trump, he will be the winner. Anything else is just wishful thinking
Trump is not popular around here. I'm on the border between two towns that went 56-41 (a mixed working class/middle class town) and 78-18 (the most affluent town in the state) for Haley and he lost the Vermont state primary as well. Only the most conservative republican towns voted for Trump. None of this is relevant to November though, when Biden will win the state easily.
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Polls needs to narrow more, of course, but take Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, they are both statistical ties, as of right now.
That is not enough for Biden, obviously, so more has to be done.
Agree. We will have a better picture in September October. But for now looks grim
This is why I believe Biden should campaign more in those swing states these days. People are suckers for candidates who campaign hard and who sell talking points in an election year.
Looks like Porter is tanking hard, sadly.
Schiff it is then.
Schiff it is then.
Just woke up, how did 'uncommitted" fare outside of Minnesota?
Steve Garvey of Dodgers fame? Jesus.
Pour one out for Dean Phillips, who somehow keeps coming in fourth in a two-horse race.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...-tuesday-uncommitted-vote-states/72858017007/
Minnesota the highest but some other states not far behind.
14.6% in Minnesota Democratic primary
10.5% in North Carolina Democratic primary
7.3% in Colorado Democratic primary
3.9% in Iowa Democratic caucus
3.3% in Tennessee Democratic Primary
5.1% in Alabama Democratic primary
11.2% in Massachusetts Democratic primary
10.5% in North Carolina Democratic primary
7.3% in Colorado Democratic primary
3.9% in Iowa Democratic caucus
3.3% in Tennessee Democratic Primary
5.1% in Alabama Democratic primary
11.2% in Massachusetts Democratic primary
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At what point does the uncommitted vote become a bit worrying for Biden? On top of his perceived weakness on the border issue, Trump's strongest issue?
I'm sure Arabs and Muslims will get the blame but I don't remember being surrounded by either of those groups when I've been to Massachussets or North Carolina.
I'm sure Arabs and Muslims will get the blame but I don't remember being surrounded by either of those groups when I've been to Massachussets or North Carolina.
This is strange language to use for a mixed race female.Haley is getting shat upon, curbstomped and teabagged hard in Texas.
Crazy situation for the US to find itself in - any vaguely competent candidate put forward by either main party would completely annihilate the current 1st choice opposition candidate. Individually, Trump and Biden must be two of the worst candidates ever put forward - how can this possibly be the choice facing the American people. Even so, there is clearly a wrong answer here - Trump 2.0 will be a disaster, not just for the social fabric of the country, the rule of law and potentially American democracy itself, but also for the international community, particularly Nato and Ukraine.
Among video gamers, that would be the description of getting battered and totally humiliated by the other team.
Looks like the GOP have learned nothing from the Herschel Walker debacle.
Sure, video gamers think nothing about invoking Nazi abuses...
That's really disappointing.
I was expecting her to extend the whole thing as far as possible in order to create more havoc against Trump if she really hates him this much.
Trump - Haley ticket wins?