I agree, it’s massively vague, it was just that they were people I trust and they seemed rather bullish, which is unusual for a lot of them. The strength of the economy feels like it’s absolutely fundamental in such a close election, and I’m interested in what people think.
2024 U.S. Elections
- Thread starter Raoul
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
I still very doubt the validity of polls, I have not once in my life been approached or called upon via mobile phone to been asked who I'm voting for, nobody who I know have either so who are they actually asking? I've lived in mostly red states (ironically) so maybe it's pointless but still and it wouldn't shock me if Republican Trumpers are manipulating the polls.
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As someone with WI in their name, who has lived there, that both makes no sense and all the sense on the world.
In other words, it’s close.
CBS also puts Biden up 51-49 in Michigan today. I wonder whey that’s not in the tweet.
Also in Michigan, Bloomberg/Morning Consult puts Biden up 47-45 now vs down 44-46 at the end of February.
The person doing the tweet is a pretty hardcore Democratic party partisan. I think the point he's making isn't that Biden is losing (silly to say that based on a 1-pt gap) but that he's doing much, much worse than the Senate candidate in both states. Which has been a constant in polling in virtually every competitive state I can think of really, even where the senators are in trouble.
As far as I know on this side of the border, pollsters always call into my home (landline) phone and never on my cellphone. And because the sample is small while they have to survey as many areas as possible, you can bet they will not dial in a vast majority of people living in cities for starters even though they should. The data will most likely be skewed for the Republicans for one reason or the other, especially when the polling methods have not changed at all.
Current polling shows that split tickets is back like never before, when there is little to no evidence to this in actual reality.
There is like, Susan Collins winning in 2020, and thats about it, every other presidential election, even midterms, shows partisanship growing, by quite a lot.
It would defy all trends and logic for Biden to be this incredibly despised figure, and it not have any negative effect on downballot.
Dems aren't holding senate seats in Ohio and Montana(probably not Arizona, or open seat in Michigan either), if Trump is crushing Biden in nearly every battleground state.
Biden is either severely underestimated, or downballot democrats will come crashing down with him.
There is like, Susan Collins winning in 2020, and thats about it, every other presidential election, even midterms, shows partisanship growing, by quite a lot.
It would defy all trends and logic for Biden to be this incredibly despised figure, and it not have any negative effect on downballot.
Dems aren't holding senate seats in Ohio and Montana(probably not Arizona, or open seat in Michigan either), if Trump is crushing Biden in nearly every battleground state.
Biden is either severely underestimated, or downballot democrats will come crashing down with him.
He would've handed Trump the presidency twice by the end of it: The first time by not running in '16 and the second time by running in '24. Unbelievable that they couldn't find anyone on the whole democratic side to run this time. This is the repeat of the RBG moment, when they couldn't convince the old bat to resign and she died just before the election to give Trump another Supreme Court pick. Democratic or Republican, they are all fecking narcissists, who can't think beyond themselves.
Who would you have picked out of interest?
I don't know, man. They have made running against an incumbent such a taboo that no one wants to throw their hat in the ring. I am sure there was someone who could've have emerged just like Obama did back then. Even Newsom or Whitmer could've been options. But "Tradition" is such that you have to stand behind even a corpse if he wishes to run. It's bullshit.
I like Whitmer, Newsom is very average for my money.
You just needed a non genocide enabler who isn’t about to drop dead any second , and you wouldv trounced trump. Good on you for making it an actual competition
Is this claim true though? Didn't Biden out of all potential Dem candidates poll the best against Trump?
An incumbent president vs non declared hypotheticals? The same polls had Taylor swift in there iirc
There was a poll carried out a few months ago where they'd matched up hypothetical elections of Trump vs Harris and Trump vs Newsom, and it appeared the latter two dem candidates would likely lose by a bigger margin than Biden. Though it begs the question as to whether those two are too similar/close to Biden.
Interestingly another poll suggested 62% of Biden supporters would rather replace him with another candidate.
Inflation, housing costs, no consequences for the orange dictator in 4 years. Combine that with the fact that general political apathy means no one can actually understand why these things are important or bad and then you get the answer you see in the polls. Shit feels bad, the guy in charge is the one doing it, i'm voting for the other guy.
I put that on another thread
This is from a few months back. I don't know nowadays
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...mocrats-what-it-says-about-biden-alternative/
I think it's very logical actually because none of the major negatives for Biden ATM (age and his decline, his handling of Israel-Gaza, perception of economy) are applicable to down ballot candidates. Trends don't mean much in a year with so many unique factors.
Trump and the GOP are attacking Biden over Israel-Gaza...from the right! These tweets posted today are why I can't accept the "don't vote for Biden" argument. Not voting has zero chance of making things better for Gaza and it does have a chance of making things worse (and yes, I believe things could be worse, maybe even much worse - because 30K dead civilians is worse than 20k dead civilians). So it's not actually doing anything to help anyone here, and that's before taking into account dozens of other issues from Ukraine to abortion to LGBT rights to the Supreme Court, etc.
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You can’t criticize Israel, but can you criticize the United States? Germany? France? Well, that’s interesting.
Can we just combine this and the North Korea thread now?
That Chris Christie clip is hilarious.
The chatbot programmed by a fascist parrot bit is fecking gold, Jerry! Gold!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...ers_on_israel_this_may_be_bidens_vietnam.html
BTW if you want to see old-style/boomer conservatives before the Trump+Pepe takeover, see the comments below this article. Red-baiting, bloodily pro-Israel and pro-Vietnam war, sayingn Biden and Bernie are facilitating a Holocaust. Not at all "American first" as the new batch puts it.
You know polling is a joke when the latest have Trump up in Washington, a state Biden won by nearly 20 points in 2020.
I'm just going to assume polling is broken going into this election, nothing else makes sense in my head.
I'm just going to assume polling is broken going into this election, nothing else makes sense in my head.
Christie should challenge Trump to a public weighing.
The 2020 polls put Biden around the 20% in 2020, weren't broken I guess in 2020? Puting your fingers in your ears while closing your eyes while shouting La la la la will not change the reality that indicates that US is going to another disastrous second term for Trump
*JackNicholsonNodGif*
Remember that Stormy Daniels said that "Tiny" is definitely not weighing 215 lbs, especially not when she has a vast experience with men to testify about.
I just think women are going to come out in droves to vote Biden. They are just not going to risk having their rights taken away. Everything else will be a secondary concern to that. Other than the pragmatists will vote for Biden due to the economy. They are also not going to risk a Trump term shrinking the economy.
Polling has not been accurate ever since Dobbs.
So yes, i'm really just going to assume republicans are overestimated by rather big margins, as they have been for 2 years now.
Trump is not at all popular looking at actual results, with young people, or with independents.
I'm not ruling out a Trump win, but it would be in the realms of 16, not some massive electoral landslide that these pollsters claim..
I already had the discussion with you and I put you some facts that I will not search again. That affirmation is not true. If you pick the most prestigious polls, they have barely a margin of error of 2-3%
So you are saying that they lie in the polls? or they will change at the last minute? Hopefully is true, but surely we will see it reflected on the last 2 weeks polls
You want to look at the states that matters?
Republicans were overestimated in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, for most statewide races in 2022.
They may have been roughly accurate in many states, not so in the battlegrounds.
It is not ok to cherry pick but lets entertain it. Battle states:
Reality vs polls
Michigan: 2.8 vs 7.9 (Biden)
Pennsylvania: 1.2 vs 4.7 (Biden)
Nevada: 2.4 vs 5.3 (Biden)
Arizona: 0.4 vs 2.6 (Biden)
Georgia: 0.3 vs 1.2 (Biden)
Wisconsin: 0.6 vs 8.4 (Biden)
4 or the 6 battle states were around 1-3% margin of error approx. as I mentioned. But the funny think is that overestimated Biden, not Trump. So the argument makes it even worse. The polls that we see should considered as overestimating Biden, not Trump
What polls are those? Also what races?
Battle states trump vs Biden in 2020 presidential
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Average of many polling the days before election. I will not nitpick and go for the more prestigious polls, because I don't want to lose that much time
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/