2024 U.S. Elections

maniak

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WI_Red said:
Uhm... dead is dead. Even beyond that there are the mass graves of Bucha and Hostomel, the countless cases of rape and torture, the deliberate targeting of civilians, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, etc. Your minimization of this as "numbers" is striking and your phrasing as such should maybe prompt a moment of reflection.
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The "minimization" is only happening in your head, it's not in anything I've written.

In fact it's the opposite, someone reduced the whole thing to numbers and I said numbers alone don't tell the whole story. I don't think my english is that bad.

I've been following both conflicts very closely and my personal conclusion is that despite both being horrendous and filled with war crimes, the israelis have done much worse. If you disagree that's ok, but literally nothing I've written minimized the situation in ukraine.

Part of what makes it worse is that ukraine has received help and support from pretty much the entire west (both moral, diplomatic, financial and military), while the palestinians have received nothing but empty words, all while seeing those butchering them getting billions in financial and military aid, as well as diplomatic cover in all international institutions.

I hope the fact you're voting for the man dealing with these 2 tragedies in such a different ways prompts a moment of reflection.
 

maniak

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Cal? said:
How exactly? What has Israel done that Russia hasn't? Target civilians? Target infrastructure? Torture? Kill kids?

Both are terrible situations in different ways, but I haven't seen any reports of Israelis raping or kidnapping kids.
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I will reply with numbers because that's how you started this chat. Disclaimer: I don't want to minimize any deaths.

A quick google search tells me russia has killed around 12k civilians, including around 600 children. Israel has killed over 40k civilians (I think it's safe to assume those missing for weeks under ruble are dead) including around 15k children. And israel did it in much less time.

If numbers are your standard, then these are the numbers.
 

Revan

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TwoSheds said:
I think the degree is probably pretty unusual yes. If that poll is to be believed of course. They represent more than 50% of voters and the gap is seemingly 16%. The reverse would have to be more than true for men if turnout were equal. Surely 2/3 of men aren't dumb enough to favour Trump even if a slight majority are?
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In 2020 I think Biden won by +12 to +15 (depending on different polls), so this is not far off from that.
 

WI_Red

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maniak said:
The "minimization" is only happening in your head, it's not in anything I've written.

In fact it's the opposite, someone reduced the whole thing to numbers and I said numbers alone don't tell the whole story. I don't think my english is that bad.

I've been following both conflicts very closely and my personal conclusion is that despite both being horrendous and filled with war crimes, the israelis have done much worse. If you disagree that's ok, but literally nothing I've written minimized the situation in ukraine.

Part of what makes it worse is that ukraine has received help and support from pretty much the entire west (both moral, diplomatic, financial and military), while the palestinians have received nothing but empty words, all while seeing those butchering them getting billions in financial and military aid, as well as diplomatic cover in all international institutions.

I hope the fact you're voting for the man dealing with these 2 tragedies in such a different ways prompts a moment of reflection.
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You keep going back to this type of argument and it is one I can only view as nihilistic or as a fantasy. In the world that exists in your head what is the outcome if the large percentage of “Biden voters” who are against his Israel policy stay home?

Is that worth the complete removal of support for Ukraine and the likely catastrophic results for Ukraine and Europe that follow? For the withdrawal of the USA from NATO and the effect that has on the security and economies of the EU as you struggle to fill the void? For the economic hit the EU will suffer if the proposed 10% tariff is applied? And those are just a few of Trump’s promised actions that will affect Portugal directly and does not even address the clusterfeck we will experience domestically.

At least be honest and actually say you want Trump to be president as punishment to Biden and his admin for their handling of the Israeli genocide in Gaza instead of the nonsensical “Trump is horrible but you should all not vote for Biden”. If that’s not your position then actually say what it is and don’t stop at what you would do, actually follow it to its conclusion if everyone who feels, like you and I do, that the US’s response has been abominable and is complicit, followed your stance.

As for the first part, I think making power rankings of human suffering is abhorrent and that was my comment. Russia and Israel are acting in ways that are in line with some of the worst actors in human history, and to say one is “not as bad” (which saying the other is many times worse is doing) is just wrong.
 

oneniltothearsenal

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GiddyUp said:
In my opinion after living around magas they usually drop in to three categories.
Greedy and gluttonous with no care for other people outside your social class.
Super religious with a hard on for any false idol that will own the libs.
Dumb as dirt trash pretending to be intelligent because they live down conspiracy rabbit hole.

All three categories have no issue with sexual assault. They get all their information from the same cesspool that has misinformed them time and time again.They will also vote against their best interest over something as trivial as man wearing makeup or a Harry Potter book.

But to think Trump is superior on policy makes you a special kind fool. If you lived in the US or had any skin in the game you would fecking know an opinion like that makes you a look ill-informed on every domestic issue.
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I think that is fairly accurate. The first group are people who will vote GOP regardless of the candidate because they think they'll pay less in taxes (whether they are super wealthy or not). The second are the conservative religious culture war nutcases. Then there are the Q anon, Trump is a hero, COVID was planned by global elites nutcases. There might be a fourth group of outright racists/LGBT haters although maybe those are just modifiers that fit into the other three groups.
 

Precaution

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calodo2003 said:
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Proof polls mean nothing, if these people that are being asked are like me, I'd too wouldn't probably wouldn't reveal who I'm voting for with such disdain for the two party monopoly that I'd show it by a protest jokester vote (until actual voting day where I revert back to type and fall in) surprised Mickey Mouse isn't on it.
 

WI_Red

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Mike Smalling said:
Sure, excluding the worst crazies in MAGA World.
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I suppose she could be. She lost to Trump for the sole reason that she was, rightly or wrongly, extremely unpopular. Biden would be better off sticking to the younger generation (Newsome, Whitmer, etc.) as his surrogates, but old man gonna do old man things.
 

Red in STL

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WI_Red said:
On the environment???

I mean, the US is drilling more now then it ever has. Ever.
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Well he did try to get the EPA to do stuff and then the SC jumped in and killed it, not claiming he's perfect
 

Morty_

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Mike Smalling said:
Has there ever been a worse political surrogate than post-2016 Hillary?
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If one listens to Fox, one could believe that Biden has abolished the use of oil, and has the US ushering in eco-communism.
 

Red in STL

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WI_Red said:
I suppose she could be. She lost to Trump for the sole reason that she was, rightly or wrongly, extremely unpopular. Biden would be better off sticking to the younger generation (Newsome, Whitmer, etc.) as his surrogates, but old man gonna do old man things.
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Maybe it could be a distraction tactic, get them focusing on her whilst everyone else is doing their thing
 

Morty_

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Mike Smalling said:
That looks bad from Trump, doesn't it? If Biden gets even a third or a fourth of those Haley voters, it would be massive for him.
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Maybe it looks bad in actual reality, but the polls say Trump is leading everywhere, and people no longer care about things like abortion or preserving democracy anymore.

Feels like 22 all over again.
 

VorZakone

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RedDevilQuebecois said:
As someone wrote in the comments of that Twitter thread, it is poor journalism and/or poor polling because the respondents are registered voters only. Again it is not so surpririsng from Bloomberg.
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Ah. Expected better from Bloomberg I guess...
 

Sweet Square

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4bars said:
I don't understand the graph. If you have time, could you explain it to me?
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The lost civilization stuff I’m not sure what is meant by that.

The rest is basically this -

US economic growth slows but inflation grows

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68898432.amp

The US economy grew by less than forecast in the first three months of this year but inflation gathered pace, which could delay an interest rate cut.

Official figures revealed the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.6%, far below expectations and the growth seen in the final months of 2023.

Meanwhile, inflation, which measures the pace of price rises, has increased. At the start of the year, experts had been forecasting a series of interest rate cuts in the US.

However, inflation is yet to fall back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and on Thursday, figures from the US Department of Commerce showed that inflation increased by 3.4% in the first three months of 2024. This is compared to an increase of 1.8% in the final three months of 2023.

Raising interest rates makes borrowing - for things such as loans and mortgages - more expensive and theoretically is meant to encourage people to spend less. The idea is that this helps to bring inflation down by dampening demand.However, US inflation has not fallen back as quickly as expected.

At the same time, economic growth - measured as gross domestic product (GDP) - has slowed from 3.4% growth in the final three months of last year to 1.6%. Economists had been expected it to decelerate but only to 2.4%. Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch, the credit rating agency, said: "The hot inflation print is the real story in this report.
"If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach."

The key US interest rate is between 5.25% to 5.5% - the highest level in more than 20 years.
Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital in London, said the US Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates, was "now finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place"."The growth numbers suggest monetary policy has worked its magic and the Fed's foot on the monetary brake can be eased somewhat," he said. "But the inflation figures suggest otherwise, and potentially even point to the need for a further tightening."The 1.6% growth figure is the first estimate of GDP. A second reading, "based on more complete source data", will be released on 30 May.

Nevertheless, the economy is a key issue as the US heads towards an election later this year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68898432.amp
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The US economy could start to shit it’s pants again nearer the election.
 

4bars

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Sweet Square said:
The lost civilization stuff I’m not sure what is meant by that.

The rest is basically this -


The US economy could start to shit it’s pants again nearer the election.
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Well, they say that the effects of the interests raise its felt after 18 months, so its about this time when they escalated them. I am surprise that US did so well for a while, at least in the macro. Will see. Is to early to say. They had been banging the drums of recession economic doom mongering for the last 1-2 years and the opposite happened.
 
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