2024 U.S. Elections

Redplane

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And there it is. I've said before in here I thought that immigration fears are a secret unifier of right and left and that Rs will siphon votes from Biden just with that. Its no wonder theyve been playing it up for months. Because they know that all it takes is a relatively small center and center left contingent to be just enough to swing the pendulum. It's depressing so many fall for it.
 

4bars

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They're going to be surprised at how much of their taxpayer dollars will be spent on mass deportations.

And then who will do their landscaping, harvesting and make their chimi-changas?
And they gonna be surprised when:

" Juan? no, Juan is a good guy, why they deport him? he has owned my favourite restaurant for the last 20 years and his son is my son's best friend. He goes to church every sunday and gives to the community. Not Juan please"

They so thick that they don't stop thinking
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Very relevant.

Blinken tells CNN the US has seen evidence of China attempting to influence upcoming US elections (CNN)

On this side of the border, there is a commission currently investigating how China led smearing campaigns against candidates who are not so friendly to China in favor of other candidates who are more favorable to China. This kind of stuff had touched all political parties here during the 2021 general elections.

In the US, you can bet everything that China will use TikTok (during the 9-month probation period) and other social media to smear all candidates (House, Senate, President, etc.) who believe in a stronger and more hurtful stance towards the CCP. You guys better stay vigilant because they have the means to make the 2016 Russian interference look like child's play.
 
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Morty_

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Much had been made of Biden's "comeback" in the polls, problem is, its only national polls, state polls has not gotten better, if anything, they have gotten worse.

So, i guess it's just Biden shoring up voters in California and New York, which won't make a difference either way.

Now, i don't trust the polls to be correct, but just looking at the polls, things have not really changed.
 

Sky1981

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Much had been made of Biden's "comeback" in the polls, problem is, its only national polls, state polls has not gotten better, if anything, they have gotten worse.

So, i guess it's just Biden shoring up voters in California and New York, which won't make a difference either way.

Now, i don't trust the polls to be correct, but just looking at the polls, things have not really changed.
They're not foolproof but collectively they do paint a rather good indications.

Even at 5% swing bothways the polls are not considered strong for Biden.

The man literally can't even read the teleprompter properly
 

4bars

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Much had been made of Biden's "comeback" in the polls, problem is, its only national polls, state polls has not gotten better, if anything, they have gotten worse.

So, i guess it's just Biden shoring up voters in California and New York, which won't make a difference either way.

Now, i don't trust the polls to be correct, but just looking at the polls, things have not really changed.
But at least is some positive. There still time to get things around but currently things look grim
 

4bars

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still too soon and name recognition someone will say. This is worrisome. How are the battle states showing up?
 

Morty_

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Also in the CNN poll, 55% of americans think Trump's first term was a success, also, he leads among women voters.

If this is true, then the US is fecked, alternatively, polling is broken and overestimate republicans, like they have done ever since Dobbs.

I'm going with the latter, nothing Trump has said or done past couple of years should attract new voters, there is nothing in actual reality that suggests he has gotten more popular, only less.
 

4bars

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polling is broken and overestimate republicans, like they have done ever since Dobbs.
Not the reliable polls, not by s substantial margin and the error not close to gap the national polling for now

I'm going with the latter, nothing Trump has said or done past couple of years should attract new voters, there is nothing in actual reality that suggests he has gotten more popular, only less.
Biden had the biggest turn out in % since there are records bar 1960 (by a little margin). He will be the one that loses the most votes as his image brought him the lowest approval of any POTUS ever
 

Sky1981

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Also in the CNN poll, 55% of americans think Trump's first term was a success, also, he leads among women voters.

If this is true, then the US is fecked, alternatively, polling is broken and overestimate republicans, like they have done ever since Dobbs.

I'm going with the latter, nothing Trump has said or done past couple of years should attract new voters, there is nothing in actual reality that suggests he has gotten more popular, only less.
Or the Democrats and redcafe are really underestimating Trump. I notice changes in Trump's approach. He cut down alot (or at least from the things i read here) on his relentless attack. Still the old Trump but he's much more "restrained" this time compared to say vs. Hillary and even vs. Biden round 1. This imho gets him a vote here and there, along with Biden doing a political blunder and not to mention his dementia gaffe which becoming more and more visible.

The GOP arent idiots as much as they play their roles to cater to their bases. They knew Trump is still their best best for 2024. Even if you dont believe the national polls their internal polls knew more than we'll ever know.

I've been shot down for commenting to watch out for Trump even when i have a history of laughin at him for years in here.

And yes I know Trump bad etc. So unless the Dems do some drastic changes I think they have an increasingly alarming worries come next elections.

You might laugh at the polls as rigged but at the end of the days numbers dont lie. At the very best it'll be a slim margin for the Ds and a second Trump looks more and more likely by the day.
 

Mike Smalling

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DeSantis is now apparently in the VP mix.
Would be a bad choice for Trump, I feel. They appeal to the same voters, and DeSantis is perceived to be a bit of a loser now. Trump needs to broaden his appeal by picking a womea or a person of color.
 
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Sky1981

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Would be a bad choice for Trump, I feel. They appeal to the same voters, and DeSantis is perceived to be a bit of a loser now. Trump needs to broaden his appeal by picking a women or a person of color.
By doing so he's alienating his votes and lose more votes.

Trump problem is undermining Biden vote. His voters will vote for him regardless.
 

Morty_

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Or the Democrats and redcafe are really underestimating Trump. I notice changes in Trump's approach. He cut down alot (or at least from the things i read here) on his relentless attack. Still the old Trump but he's much more "restrained" this time compared to say vs. Hillary and even vs. Biden round 1. This imho gets him a vote here and there, along with Biden doing a political blunder and not to mention his dementia gaffe which becoming more and more visible.

The GOP arent idiots as much as they play their roles to cater to their bases. They knew Trump is still their best best for 2024. Even if you dont believe the national polls their internal polls knew more than we'll ever know.

I've been shot down for commenting to watch out for Trump even when i have a history of laughin at him for years in here.

And yes I know Trump bad etc. So unless the Dems do some drastic changes I think they have an increasingly alarming worries come next elections.

You might laugh at the polls as rigged but at the end of the days numbers dont lie. At the very best it'll be a slim margin for the Ds and a second Trump looks more and more likely by the day.
It shouldnt matter if he has changed his "approach", if people thought he was a terrible president just a few years ago and now thinks the opposite, they are morons with goldfish memories, thats solely on the voters, not democrats.

For the record, i don't see this mature and restrained Trump you are talking about, he is as unhinged and idiotic as ever, just read his average truth social post.

I disagree Trump is their best bet for 2024, that would be Haley, Trump is really not doing well with independents(all primary results shows this).

I didn't say polls were rigged, i said broken, and no, the numbers can absolutely "lie", as they have largely done, in about every type of election since dobbs.
 

Kyonn

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Would be a bad choice for Trump, I feel. They appeal to the same voters, and DeSantis is perceived to be a bit of a loser now. Trump needs to broaden his appeal by picking a womea or a person of color.
Agreed, that's why my money's still on Tim Scott.
 

Raoul

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Would be a bad choice for Trump, I feel. They appeal to the same voters, and DeSantis is perceived to be a bit of a loser now. Trump needs to broaden his appeal by picking a womea or a person of color.
At the end of the day, he will choose someone not too controversial (bad news for the likes of Kari Lake, Noem, Marge and that crew); likely a person who will remain "loyal" as future legal shitstorms emerge. Scott would seem the likliest of contenders because he checks a lot of boxes. DeSantis wouldn't be far behind given his lust for power, as he would probably kiss the ring and submit to total fealty. In terms of policy, I think Trump and DeSantis are more closely aligned compared to the other realistic contenders for the VP job.
 

Adisa

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I've resigned myself to a Trump victory. Even the fact that it's this close is a disaster.
 

Infra-red

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At the end of the day, he will choose someone not too controversial (bad news for the likes of Kari Lake, Noem, Marge and that crew); likely a person who will remain "loyal" as future legal shitstorms emerge. Scott would seem the likliest of contenders because he checks a lot of boxes. DeSantis wouldn't be far behind given his lust for power, as he would probably kiss the ring and submit to total fealty. In terms of policy, I think Trump and DeSantis are more closely aligned compared to the other realistic contenders for the VP job.
This will be key in the thinking. Assuming that Trump is indeed planning to do as expected and fully debase American democracy, pardon himself of all crimes, weaponize the DOJ against his enemies and political rivals, invoke the Insurrection Act and tell the Supreme Court to go feck themselves if they disagree, etc, then a loyal lapdog VP seems to be the most attractive pick for him. Once he's established his authoritarian United States and appointed himself dictator for life, he won't need a VP anyway.
 

oneniltothearsenal

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Or the Democrats and redcafe are really underestimating Trump. I notice changes in Trump's approach. He cut down alot (or at least from the things i read here) on his relentless attack. Still the old Trump but he's much more "restrained" this time compared to say vs. Hillary and even vs. Biden round 1. This imho gets him a vote here and there, along with Biden doing a political blunder and not to mention his dementia gaffe which becoming more and more visible.

The GOP arent idiots as much as they play their roles to cater to their bases. They knew Trump is still their best best for 2024. Even if you dont believe the national polls their internal polls knew more than we'll ever know.

I've been shot down for commenting to watch out for Trump even when i have a history of laughin at him for years in here.

And yes I know Trump bad etc. So unless the Dems do some drastic changes I think they have an increasingly alarming worries come next elections.

You might laugh at the polls as rigged but at the end of the days numbers dont lie. At the very best it'll be a slim margin for the Ds and a second Trump looks more and more likely by the day.
I don't see much change in his approach but I would say I think it's more overestimating Biden though the end result is the same.

I think it's three factors, the obvious age decline, the ongoing Gaza situation, and the economics effects of inflation still being very much present in increased cost of living that doesn't go down. All of those can influence different voters with the cumulative effect being Biden is a weaker candidate this year than 2020 more than recognized perhaps in the "but the pills are biased to Republicans" comments
 

NicolaSacco

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I don't see much change in his approach but I would say I think it's more overestimating Biden though the end result is the same.

I think it's three factors, the obvious age decline, the ongoing Gaza situation, and the economics effects of inflation still being very much present in increased cost of living that doesn't go down. All of those can influence different voters with the cumulative effect being Biden is a weaker candidate this year than 2020 more than recognized perhaps in the "but the pills are biased to Republicans" comments
The few people I talked to about this on a boring politics WhatsApp group have all predicted a Biden win based on incumbency and on the economy ‘doing well’ or words to that effect. Slightly worried that you don’t think this is the case, it’s fairly fundamental.
 

NicolaSacco

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I've resigned myself to a Trump victory. Even the fact that it's this close is a disaster.
I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised, but I’m saying that as someone who thought he’d lose in 2016 too.
Someone on here was saying a while ago that it will be very difficult for Trump to do in 2024 what he did in 2016. It’s a method you can’t use twice, or words to that affect. I’d like them to come back please and reassure me, whoever they are!
 

MrMarcello

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I think Trump and DeSantis would clash in due time, he'll probably take an empty suit that will toe the line and stay out of his spotlight, thus enter Tim "Token" Scott.

Or is Tim more an Uncle Tom?
 

oneniltothearsenal

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The few people I talked to about this on a boring politics WhatsApp group have all predicted a Biden win based on incumbency and on the economy ‘doing well’ or words to that effect. Slightly worried that you don’t think this is the case, it’s fairly fundamental.
Not sure what you mean exactly but just because some stats trotted out by an incumbent are used to indicate the "economy" is doing well doesn't mean people actually feel that.

For instance, they can say inflation is down so it's doing well but the reality is prices have already risen and people feel that every time they go-to the super market. In other words, just because inflation stats fall doesn't mean prices actually go back to pre inflation levels.

Same thing with unemployment and job numbers. Just because "jobs" are created doesn't mean people will necessarily feel a thriving job market because if 7 high paying tech jobs were lost and 10 minimum wage retail clerk jobs were created, that isn't going to feel like a thriving job to a tech employee that got laid off no matter what the stats say.

Or maybe I'm just misinterpreting your point.