How often do big money transfers actually work?

MegadrivePerson

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A discussion on another thread got me thinking about footballs biggest transfers and how often do they actually live up to it.

I've compiled a list of the top 50 transfers to see and I was surprised that the vast majority have failed.

From the top 50, only 11 can go down as a real major success. Some will need to be revisited in a few years time, but overall it suggests that paying massive fees for players doesn't bring success

I've bolded the nine players that I think have definitely lived up to their big transfer fees.

1 Neymar Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain £198million

2 Kylian Mbappé Monaco to Paris Saint-Germain £163 million

3 Philippe Coutinho Liverpool to Barcelona £135 million

4 Moisés Caicedo Brighton & Hove Albion to Chelsea £115 million

5 João Félix Benfica to Atlético Madrid £113 million

6 Enzo Fernández Benfica to Chelsea £107 million

7 Antoine Griezmann Atlético Madrid to Barcelona £107 million

8 Declan Rice West Ham United to Arsenal £105 million

9 Jack Grealish Aston Villa to Manchester City £100 million

10 Romelu Lukaku Inter Milan to Chelsea £97.5 million

11 Ousmane Dembélé Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona £97 million

12 Paul Pogba Juventus to Manchester United £89 million

13 Eden Hazard Chelsea to Real Madrid £89 million

14 Jude Bellingham Borussia Dortmund to Real Madrid £88.5 million

15 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid to Juventus £88 million

16 Harry Kane Tottenham Hotspur to Bayern Munich £86.5 million

17 Gareth Bale Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid £86 million

18 Antony Netherlands Ajax to Manchester United £83 million

19 Cristiano Ronaldo Manchester United to Real Madrid £80 million

20 Harry Maguire Leicester City to Manchester United £80

21 Joško Gvardiol RB Leipzig to Manchester City £77 million

22 Neymar Paris Saint-Germain to Al Hilal £77 million

23 Gonzalo Higuaín Napoli to Juventus £75 million

24 Romelu Lukaku Everton to Manchester United £75 million

25 Virgil van Dijk Southampton to Liverpool £75 million

26 Jadon Sancho Borussia Dortmund to Manchester United £73 million

27 Kepa Arrizabalaga Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea £71.5 million

28 Kai Havertz Bayer Leverkusen to Chelsea £71 million

29 Luis Suárez Liverpool to Barcelona £70 million

30 Wesley Fofana Leicester City to Chelsea £70 million

31 Romelu Lukaku Manchester United to Inter Milan £70 million

32 Nicolas Pépé Lille to Arsenal £70 million

33 Aurélien Tchouaméni Monaco to Real Madrid £69.5 million

34 Lucas Hernandez Atlético Madrid toBayern Munich £68 million

35 Matthijs de Ligt Ajax to Juventus £67.5 million

36 Kai Havertz Chelsea to Arsenal £65 million

37 Victor Osimhen Lille to Napoli £65 million

38 Arthur Melo Barcelona to Juventus £65 million

39 Frenkie de Jong Ajax to Barcelona £65 million

40 Randal Kolo Muani Eintracht Frankfurt to Paris Saint-Germain £64 million

41 Rasmus Højlund Atalanta to Manchester United £64 million

42 Darwin Núñez Benfica to Liverpool £64 million

43 James Rodríguez Monaco to Real Madrid £63 million

44 Rodri Atlético Madrid to Manchester City £63 million

45 Thomas Lemar Monaco to Atletico Madrid £63 million

46 Alexander Isak Real Sociedad to Newcastle United £63 million

47 Alisson Becker Roma to Liverpool £62 million

48 Mykhailo Mudryk Shakhtar Donetsk to Chelsea £62million

49 Ángel Di María Real Madrid to Manchester United £60 million

50 Casemiro Real Madrid to Manchester United £60 million
 
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Mike Smalling

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Mbappe has 250 goals in 297 games for PSG. Kane is averaging more than a goal pr. game.

How have they not lived up to expectations? Is it just because PSG haven't won the CL, and because Bayern won't win the Bundesliga at the first attempt after Kane's transfer?
 

AngeloHenriquez

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Think you have to be more objective here and probably categorise them as:

1) Worth the money
2) Not bad
3) Not worth the money
?) Needs more time

Someone like Casemiro for example has done very well so I wouldn't say "Not worth the money" but I also wouldn't say "Worth the money", hence the "Not bad" category.
 

Jev

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Tchouameni, Kane, Mbappe, Higuain, Grealish and Isak have all been successes for me. Probably Havertz (Arsenal) as well, and yes, I’d add Nunez too, and hopefully Højlund before long. I think you could even make a case for Maguire.
 

MegadrivePerson

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Mike Smalling said:
Mbappe has 250 goals in 297 games for PSG. Kane is averaging more than a goal pr. game.

How have they not lived up to expectations? Is it just because PSG haven't won the CL, and because Bayern won't win the Bundesliga at the first attempt after Kane's transfer?
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Sassy Colin said:
So Mbappe hasn't been a success at PSG? Harry Kane to Bayern, a failure? There's plenty of others on the list who've been good transfers.
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For Kane he's on the some will need to be revisited in a few years time list.

For Mbappe, considering how much they paid for him, and yes because they haven't won the Champions league, and also he will leave them on a free I wouldn't say he's lived up to the massive fee that they paid for him.
 

MegadrivePerson

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Jev said:
Tchouameni, Kane, Mbappe, Higuain, Grealish and Isak have all been successes for me. Probably Havertz (Arsenal) as well, and yes, I’d add Nunez too, and hopefully Højlund before long. I think you could even make a case for Maguire.
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There are some like Tchouameni and Lemar where I don't really know enough about them to say if they've been a major success.

Grealish for £100 million though I don't think has. Plus he appears to have gone backwards this season and lost his place.

Nunez and Højlund still have question marks on them. It feels like both will be a success, but if this season were to be the high point of their Liverpool/Man United careers then I don't think you'd say that they were.
 

MegadrivePerson

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AngeloHenriquez said:
Someone like Casemiro for example has done very well so I wouldn't say "Not worth the money" but I also wouldn't say "Worth the money", hence the "Not bad" category.
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Strongly disagree.

Casemiro made a good impact in the first half of last season, but has been average/poor since after the Qatar world cup.
 

Powderfinger

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Many big money transfers obviously fail. I think the more interesting question involves why. What goes wrong?

Just off the top of my head, I'd say:

1) Players bought as "shiny toys" but the manager does not have a clear sense of how they will fit into his team and tactics and why this particular player is the one the team needs (Coutinho, Griezmann, Joao Felix, Lukaku to Chelsea, Pogba).

2) Players with suspect mentality or who have reached a point in their careers where they stop caring (Sancho, Hazard, Neymar, Dembele, Higuain).

3) Fundamentally bad scouting evaluation of a player from a smaller club/weaker league who just didn't have top level qualities (Pepe, Mudryk, Kepa, Antony, Maguire, de Ligt, Lemar)
 

Rnd898

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From the ones that weren't bolded and haven't gotten a mention yet, Lukaku from United to Inter was definitely a success. 30+ goals in both his seasons there, played a big part in them winning their first league title for more than a decade and then fecked off for a cool £30M profit.

Overall I would categorize the top 50 transfers something like this:
~15 successful
~10 jury still out
~10 not necessarily bad but for the money paid not that great either
~15 big flops
 

Sassy Colin

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Basically, you've made up your own agenda and when people disagree, you are doubling down on your incorrect agenda.

This rating system has some merit:

AngeloHenriquez said:
1) Worth the money
2) Not bad
3) Not worth the money
?) Needs more time
e) boué
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How you can put Casimero in the same category as the dross brought by Chelsea and Barcelona, I do not know.

It does highlight how much fecking money Chelsea and Barcelona have wasted on rubbish.
 

Snow

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Bit weird to highlight players that have definitely lived up to their fee when there's not one season under their belt. Coutinho and Hazard had repeated injuries in Spain. What's there to say that won't happen to Bellingham. Few good months and two years of injuries. Would that be worth the 90m?

Within that parameter, why is Rice bolded but not Højlund? Rice was 40m more expensive and Arsenal haven't won anything more than us. Has he improved them? Yes. Has Højlund improved us? Yes he has.

I'd take these newer signings out of the question and I'd also adjust for inflation to include some of the signings early in the century. Zidane, Denilson, Figo etc.
 

MegadrivePerson

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Rnd898 said:
From the ones that weren't bolded and haven't gotten a mention yet, Lukaku from United to Inter was definitely a success. 30+ goals in both his seasons there, played a big part in them winning their first league title for more than a decade and then fecked off for a cool £30M profit.

Overall I would categorize the top 50 transfers something like this:
~15 successful
~10 jury still out
~10 not necessarily bad but for the money paid not that great either
~15 big flops
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Yeah I agree with you on Lukaku United to Inter actually. I've edited it to take it up to ten.
 

stepic

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MegadrivePerson said:
For Mbappe, considering how much they paid for him, and yes because they haven't won the Champions league, and also he will leave them on a free I wouldn't say he's lived up to the massive fee that they paid for him.
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it’s a team sport dude

and psg could have sold him for a profit easily if they wanted to.

both stupid rationales
 

MegadrivePerson

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Snow said:
Bit weird to highlight players that have definitely lived up to their fee when there's not one season under their belt. Coutinho and Hazard had repeated injuries in Spain. What's there to say that won't happen to Bellingham. Few good months and two years of injuries. Would that be worth the 90m?

Within that parameter, why is Rice bolded but not Højlund? Rice was 40m more expensive and Arsenal haven't won anything more than us. Has he improved them? Yes. Has Højlund improved us? Yes he has.

I'd take these newer signings out of the question and I'd also adjust for inflation to include some of the signings early in the century. Zidane, Denilson, Figo etc.
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It's hard to know exactly what to do with the newer signings. With Bellingham and Rice it's more because their teams are top of their league and both players have been a massive part of that.

With Hojlund he's scored 7 league goals for a team that is 6th in the league. I think he is very very likely to live up to expectations in the future though.
 

MegadrivePerson

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stepic said:
it’s a team sport dude

and psg could have sold him for a profit easily if they wanted to.

both stupid rationales
Click to expand...
Yes, and they could still win the Champions League this year too.

I just think for all the money invested in Mbappe they have to win the Champions League, otherwise you've essentially spent all that money to win domestic trophies that you'd probably win without him anyway.
 

Lay

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MegadrivePerson said:
For Kane he's on the some will need to be revisited in a few years time list.

For Mbappe, considering how much they paid for him, and yes because they haven't won the Champions league, and also he will leave them on a free I wouldn't say he's lived up to the massive fee that they paid for him.
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Havertz scored the winning goal in the UCL final. Should he be considered a success?
 

jrsenior

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I wonder how many cheap or mid price transfers are seen as successes. Not many, but you dont hear about them. As a top club with ambitions you just have to try to get the best young talent in. That talent usually come at a premium. Older superstars on big wages should be a no though.
 

stepic

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MegadrivePerson said:
Yes, and they could still win the Champions League this year too.

I just think for all the money invested in Mbappe they have to win the Champions League, otherwise you've essentially spent all that money to win domestic trophies that you'd probably win without him anyway.
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He only cost £58m more than Rice who you consider a success, and Arsenal have won feck all. Your argument is all over the place.

This is the best player in the world we’re talking about. Frankly £163m was a bargain for him, given what £100m+ players look like right now.
 

The Corinthian

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Rice and Bellingham are 7/8 months in with their new clubs. They've won nothing with their respective new clubs. It's a little ludicrous to classify them as successes off the bat.
 

MegadrivePerson

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stepic said:
He only cost £58m more than Rice who you consider a success, and Arsenal have won feck all. Your argument is all over the place.

This is the best player in the world we’re talking about. Frankly £163m was a bargain for him, given what £100m+ players look like right now.
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I don't think you can be considered the best player in the world whilst playing in the French League personally.
 

stefan92

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Lay said:
Havertz scored the winning goal in the UCL final. Should he be considered a success?
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Considering that they had a net spend of 6m on him having him score some decisive goals is a bargain. Surely Chelsea hoped for that to happen more consistently and I wouldn't label him a big success, but he was simply a decent signing. Not as good as hoped, but also not a failure and got sold for almost what they bought him for.
 

diarm

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I’d be interested to see the criteria by which Rice is considered a success while Mbappe, Tchouameni, De Jong and Hojlund are considered failures.
 

ThierryHenry14

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The Corinthian said:
Rice and Bellingham are 7/8 months in with their new clubs. They've won nothing with their respective new clubs. It's a little ludicrous to classify them as successes off the bat.
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If a player has to win something to consider as success then in EPL may be only new players for man city can qualify.
 

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Mbappe definitely worked out, Rice and Bellingham too soon to say but I expect those two and Kane will be with all three doing really well so far.

De Jong has been quality for Barcelona - main issue for them has been his wages and their financial issues.
 

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MegadrivePerson said:
Ha ha!

It was a slightly different time back then.

I just think in 2024, if you want to be considered the best player in the world you can't be playing in the 4th/5th best league in Europe.
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Yeah, it makes it harder. I don't know where he is most likely to end up now, but he'll find things harder if he comes to England, every match is a contest.
 

Gehrman

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It has be adjusted for inflation.
 

Gehrman

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stepic said:
it’s a team sport dude

and psg could have sold him for a profit easily if they wanted to.

both stupid rationales
Click to expand...
This. Sometimes there is the missing part of the puzzle ala Cantona(not that we won the cl with him either), but you can't just a successful transfer without looking at the whole picture. Its especially unfair if that transfer has been consistently the best performer.
 

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The Corinthian said:
Rice and Bellingham are 7/8 months in with their new clubs. They've won nothing with their respective new clubs. It's a little ludicrous to classify them as successes off the bat.
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The list is just very bad. Really bad. I know it is a personal opinion but certain players objectively can only be seen as a succes.

I dont think winning is any way to decide if a player is a succes but why are Bellingham and Rice a succes but Kane isnt? Kane is also with his new club and doing fantastic but he isnt a succes? :lol:
 

André Dominguez

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The thing is: the odds of failing in a high performance sport are pretty much more against the player than to his favour, either he was expensive or not.
 

Rojofiam

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A lot of great players on that list who struggle/struggled in nonoptimal environments, where their strengths aren't maximized and/or their weaknesses aren't masked, like they should be. I think that isn't their fault, but they should've probably chose other clubs to move to, to be honest.

Caicedo, Enzo (though he is kind of overrated IMO), Pogba, Maguire, Griezmann, Coutinho, Félix, Grealish, Havertz, Mudryk
 

Zehner

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Every transfer poses a risk so I think spending so much money on transfer fees should be the absolute exception for every club out there. Clubs should focus on long term planning as in either signing very promising players when they are still flying under the radar, signing players with favorable contract situations and only playing high sums when a player is either too good to miss out on or you have a glaring hole in your squad.

Which means you need elite scouting, you need to prepare transfers in advance (sometimes multiple years) and you need a sustainable squad management that means that the last case (glaring holes in your squad) occur as rarely as possible. Thing is, it is all connected with each other. When you have a good scouting and can make many transfers with great value for money, you can allow to wait for players instead of having to sign them expensively. It will also make players want to join you and increase their willingness to wait for that chance, especially when you scout them early on and keep in touch throughout their careers.
 

MexicanCowboy

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Big transfers are mostly going to fail because the expectations are much higher. Also, to be honest, the current generation of players is one of the worst ever so if you combine a lot of rich clubs with fewer talented players then you get a lot of fails.
 
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