Between the favorable results of the mid-terms and Biden being competitive in early h2h polling of swing states, I'd say they believe that he has about as good a chance as anyone else right now.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Millions are gonna stay home in November.
Okay, Nostradamus.
Technicaly, with only 58% or so of eligible voters voting, he will always be right. Actually 100 million or so will stay home.
Yes, technically correct, the best kind of correct.Sorry, I couldn't help it.
I fear that he may be right which worries me. I can't imagine the Bernie supporters (including me) really want another 4 years of Trump so they really should vote for who closest represents their ideals come November vs. throwing the baby out with the bathwater.Tweet
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No surprise there. Buch of fecking opportunists.
I wonder if there's decent analysis on who stays home? Is it nearly 100% the same individuals?
I can see arguments both ways for Trump vs Sanders and Trump vs Biden. With Sanders, you'll energize new people to vote but will give independents and moderate Republicans the excuse they need (terrified of communism or whatever) to hold their nose and vote Trump.
With Biden you'd lose all that new energy but perhaps the independents go with him and the never trumpers stay home.
I fear that he might be right, too. I fear anything that means Trump gets re-elected, which actually just means that I generally fear the election itself! But there is nothing so far in polling that indicates that Biden is a particularly weak candidate for the general election. That is what the democratic establishment is probably using as the basis of their assessment. All the stuff about whether his baggage (gaffes, age, "centrism", Hunter) is less or more of a handicap than Sanders' (would be the most left-leaning president ever elected) remains is, and will forever be, conjecture.Sorry, I couldn't help it.
Stop with these polls .A lot of the so called reputable pollsters were way off last time.
Disproportionately minority, poor, no college degree, young, especially homeless. And I think mostly, yes.
You mean 2016 primary polls?
I mean 2020 polls
American voters are more fickle than our matchday forum.
Her politics haven’t moved really. She’s still a centrist on global terms.
The Republican Party moved right and away from her.
She’s an opportunist, but has some good progressive policies.
I don’t think she’s changed many big policies in her career. Student Debt is an easy win for a Conservative because those are the clever good people in her eyes.
She doesn’t go left of centre on many things. She only looks left as she’s running in America.
I'm also shocked about how much the elections gone seem to influence the preferences going forward. How do the minds of these people work?!
So, what happens if the nominee dies before the election then?
For clarity - I am not threatening to kill the Democratic nominee.
For clarity - I am not threatening to kill the Democratic nominee.
And I am definitely not down to help finance such an effort. Send me a pm.
It’s going to be game over tonight.
For whom? What are going to be the relevant results to see how both sides are doing?
Sanders should end up with a lead of 100-200 delegates imo.
Americans are pathetically stupid. (As are the English, of which I am one).
They cling to this idea that change comes from the top down. Trust the messaging from the person that gets on TV most, vote for them, they will change society.
It’s so silly.
All recent movements indicate that you need to change your country from ground level. Don’t vote for people that won’t do the best for everyone.
There are some countries that blaze a different trail, Switzerland as an example.... But for most settled Western ‘Democracies’, Governments help the top of society before the bottom.
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No now we don’t want to alienate the company presidents who make up a large chunk of the electorate.
Idk man, 538 model has swung to Biden now gaining more delegates than Sanders today. Will be interesting to see if this model holds up.
Aye. Fewer people will Vote for Biden than Hillary.
Unsurprising to be honest. It's always been clear that there are more "moderates" than "progressives" in the Dem party, no matter how much that angers some in here. Once the more centrist faction coalesced around a candidate they would start to build a solid lead in the polls. Think Sanders would have had it easiest had Buttigieg or Klobuchar stayed in the race but will see now if it is too late for Biden to pick up steam.
These rich celebs are just lining up to torpedo Biden: "Bloomberg backer Judge Judy blasts Bernie: 'Unjust' for him to 'trick people' into thinking 'revolution' is possible"
https://www.foxnews.com/media/judge-judy-sanders-bloomberg-biden
https://www.foxnews.com/media/judge-judy-sanders-bloomberg-biden
It would be interesting in see the break down of the small business owners who support Bernie as I constantly hear contract workers with no unions rights called themselves small business owners. Such is the hell world we live in.
538 now calling fo Biden to have a plurality of delegates 1738 to 1363 for Sanders with Bloomberg the King maker at 566
The primary method really is terrible.
Sanders has no path to the nomination if he is not the one with the most delegates. He would need a lead of 200-300 going into the convention to realistically be able to win it.
Imagine a country built on revolution being afraid of it now.
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