It's too early, yes, but isn't it also the first polls he has won in a long time?I think it's pretty wild looking at two polls where he leads by 1% when the margin of error is double that and call it a "momentum shift". Seems like wishful thinking.
No, Biden has won several polls over Trump, including ones just before the debates as well. Trump is ahead by a small margin in about 80% of the other polls.It's too early, yes, but isn't it also the first polls he has won in a long time?
With the somewhat positive state of the union, Trump coming more into focus towards November, and the difference in ad buys starting to take effect, I think we could realistically see a noticeable shift in the polls over the next 3-4 months.
He has been losing in pretty much every poll so far, in some by a few points, so leading two polls albeit by a single point is quite good news.I think it's pretty wild looking at two polls where he leads by 1% when the margin of error is double that and call it a "momentum shift". Seems like wishful thinking.
Definitely good news, though with the margin of error being larger than the difference, we can't really say for sure that he's actually leading. But it's better than the other way around.He has been losing in pretty much every poll so far, in some by a few points, so leading two polls albeit by a single point is quite good news.
I believe Biden needs to be up by about 5 nationally to win again. At least that's roughly what it was last time. He may be able to scrape by with 4, but that's very iffy.
If you listen to experts the state of the union has never had any impact of polls, and is watched by less than 10 percent of the electorate: largely those already engaged and having made up their mind.The last round of polls from battleground states are also quite bad for Biden, for the record.
Down in PA by 4, down in Michigan by 3, Arizona by 4.
I do find it worrying, when state of the union couldn't even give Biden a temporary buff, maybe this is how its going to be throughout, and the way Biden wins is overperforming by 4-5 points.
Very shaky grounds.
Yeah, it’s more about changing the media narrative, which can slowly improve the general perception of him. Even the right wing media shifted from “he can barely stay awake” to calling him “Jacked-up Joe”.If you listen to experts the state of the union has never had any impact of polls, and is watched by less than 10 percent of the electorate: largely those already engaged and having made up their mind.
I'm less worried about that, and more encouraged that we're starting to see some of the policies and positions emerging. As we've been saying, Biden has good policies and needs to get the electorate aware.
Trump has no policies, and is currently furiously trying to pretend he didn't say last week he'd cut Medicare and medicaid.
Looks like it, despite the fact it makes no sense at all.Where’s the smart money in this then? Is trump actually going to win?
I don’t think it looks like it at all. He has a very motivated base of not enough people for a majority, but next to nothing behind that.Looks like it, despite the fact it makes no sense at all.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy...p-trump-and-rfk-jr-2adf40b5?mod=hp_lead_pos10Tim Mellon has handed out more than $150 million to causes and candidates in recent election cycles
He won't win.Where’s the smart money in this then? Is trump actually going to win?
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I think, win or lose, the mayhem is guaranteedsurely Americans are not that daft. It would be absolute mayhem if he wins again.
Not sure how they conclude that when the Senate is 50/50 now and Manchin and Ben Cardin are not running again. WV is heavily Republican so that alone would result in a GOP pick up. Maryland, despite being safe Dem, may also go GOP since Larry Hogan is running. And that's before we even get to the likes of AZ, NV, OH, MT, or WI.racetothewh.com has dems at 45% chance of holding the senate, which seems kind of excessive, but i'll take it.
The senate is 51 one now, Manchin is out next year, the problem is they say they take into account recent polling, but that same polling also bad for Biden, now, it is possible for dems to hold the senate, but only if they also have the white house.Not sure how they conclude that when the Senate is 50/50 now and Manchin and Ben Cardin are not running again. WV is heavily Republican so that alone would result in a GOP pick up. Maryland, despite being safe Dem, may also go GOP since Larry Hogan is running. And that's before we even get to the likes of AZ, NV, OH, MT, or WI.
Ultimately, many of these races will get decided based on GOTV and who actually ends up voting.
The Dems only have 48 plus 3 independents, and with Sinema leaving, AZ is completely up for grabs (despite the fact that Gallego is doing well in the polls). I think Hogan has a great chance of winning that seat. Certainly if he can win Governor then he can win a Senate seat. I think the Dems have a great chance of winning the House, but not a very good chance of retaining the Senate.The senate is 51 one now, Manchin is out next year, the problem is they say they take into account recent polling, but that same polling also bad for Biden, now, it is possible for dems to hold the senate, but only if they also have the white house.
Hogan is interesting, but state should be way too blue for him get elected to senate, most other senate races should be okay, except Montana and Ohio, we will find out more about Ohio soon though, primaries in a few days.
Thats not really how this works, while he is the strongest republican candidate for the state, governor and senate elections are quite different, just ask Bredesen in Tennessee, or Bullock in Montana, they kinda got wiped out, despite being popular governors, many other examples of this.The Dems only have 48 plus 3 independents, and with Sinema leaving, AZ is completely up for grabs (despite the fact that Gallego is doing well in the polls). I think Hogan has a great chance of winning that seat. Certainly if he can win Governor then he can win a Senate seat. I think the Dems have a great chance of winning the House, but not a very good chance of retaining the Senate.
Its actually not unusual. Tester is a Senator in a very red state, as is Manchin. Georgia, which is still pretty red despite Biden barely winning it, happens to have two Dem Senators. Therefore its entirely plausible that Hogan could win, especially as he has already proven he is capable of winning statewide.Thats not really how this works...
If he loses it will be because voter turn out for Biden will be unusually high, which isn't outside the realm of possibility. On the other hand, his age may suppress turnout, even with Trump as the alternative.I believe that Hogan will do well here in Maryland relative to other republicans, but he will likely lose. There will be a big showing of Dems to hold this seat. I’m also not sure if the red parts of the State will show up in big numbers for Hogan as he was typically critical of Trump. He needs many democrats or lean democrats to vote for him to win. That’s going to be difficult.
Possible.If he loses it will be because voter turn out for Biden will be unusually high, which isn't outside the realm of possibility. On the other hand, his age may suppress turnout, even with Trump as the alternative.
Even with context behind what he said, Trumpists will definitely spin those and most likely prepare to create more political violence.Tweet
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Pretty idiotic thing to say, even by Trumps standards.
There won't be anything close to a bloodbath. The majority of mensas who would actually take up arms is already incarcerated,Tweet
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Pretty idiotic thing to say, even by Trumps standards.
“He didn’t mean it… he meant to say this and that” and “Biden is old” is coming in 3… 2…1…Tweet
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Pretty idiotic thing to say, even by Trumps standards.
I don't doubt that. It's just an absolute idiotic thing to say at a public rally. Especially if you're trying to win new voters just before a major election and when you're claiming the media is treating you unfairly and has an agenda against you.There won't be anything close to a bloodbath. The majority of mensas who would actually take up arms is already incarcerated,
The prospect of Trump winning is getting scarier every day.
Leaving the world would be appear the logical thing to do.Luckily I’m not American. If Trump wins I would either move far away from America or just leave the World!
In the end, US is just a 3rd world country with guns.
Flashback to 80s Soviet. How they think they are US patriots is beyond me.
