A look at the impact of the new 2022 Financial Fair Play Rules on Man Utd

[DanClancy]

Henderson, Willams, Bailly, Elanga and one of McTominay or Fred would generate 100% profit, would like to think that lot should generate somewhere between £80-90m.

Maguire, Wan Bisaka, VDB & Telles if sold with what's left on their book value should generate a profit of circa £25m not too mention taking another circa 32m from the amortisation figure so with both those figures it leaves with a good bit of wriggle room. £32m worth of amortisation would allow United to spend £160m on players if they were all on 5 year contract to replicate those players who've left. Lindelof another player who could generate a decent fee who's book value is very small.

As long as we finish top 4 and have new owners we'll spend big again this summer.

 

[Messier1994]

A twitter thread on how much Newcastle can spend if they finish top 4, they are starting to look a little scary! But still, a long way off. They are living on a cheap squad and very low costs still.

 

[spiriticon]

They can make all the rules they want but will they actually punish a top team harshly for breaking them? Not really.

 

[TheReligion]

Henderson, Willams, Bailly, Elanga and one of McTominay or Fred would generate 100% profit, would like to think that lot should generate somewhere between £80-90m.

Maguire, Wan Bisaka, VDB & Telles if sold with what's left on their book value should generate a profit of circa £25m not too mention taking another circa 32m from the amortisation figure so with both those figures it leaves with a good bit of wriggle room. £32m worth of amortisation would allow United to spend £160m on players if they were all on 5 year contract to replicate those players who've left. Lindelof another player who could generate a decent fee who's book value is very small.

As long as we finish top 4 and have new owners we'll spend big again this summer.

Spot on. You’re correct about Chelsea too even if their fans are burying their heads.

 

[Skills]

Henderson, Willams, Bailly, Elanga and one of McTominay or Fred would generate 100% profit, would like to think that lot should generate somewhere between £80-90m.

Maguire, Wan Bisaka, VDB & Telles if sold with what's left on their book value should generate a profit of circa £25m not too mention taking another circa 32m from the amortisation figure so with both those figures it leaves with a good bit of wriggle room. £32m worth of amortisation would allow United to spend £160m on players if they were all on 5 year contract to replicate those players who've left. Lindelof another player who could generate a decent fee who's book value is very small.

As long as we finish top 4 and have new owners we'll spend big again this summer.

But then that leaves nothing for summer 2024 and maybe even beyond that?

 

[DanClancy]

But then that leaves nothing for summer 2024 and maybe even beyond that?

@Messier1994 is the expert here and he's already suggested United could sign a £50m player and thats without selling as long as there's CL football next summer. If United have the sort of summer I was suggesting then United will be able to spend heavily the season after, factor in we might have new owners which hopefully would mean the end of the debt and the costs of servicing it. If Ten Hag gets it right this summer then United certainly won't have to worry.

 

[Messier1994]

A thread for Arsenal;

An updated ‘best case scenario for us:

 

[Messier1994]

Thread on Chelsea’s FFP position:

 

[bringbackbebe]

Extremely insightful thread. Thanks @Messier1994 for your hard work.

 

[Messier1994]

Last year, we announced the date for the Q2 report on 18 Feb and the report itself on 1 March. The Q2 report will be heavily skewed by no games during the World Cup, but we will also make large FX profits on our debt. Will be interesting to see when it comes out.

 

[MiamiSpartan]

Great, informative thread, @Messier1994 (and respect for the user name, even though I'm a lifelong Red Wings fan).

The large majority of the thread was before the charges against City came out. There were a lot of comments about doing what City did with sponsors, and I think we are seeing that that isn't the way to go under new owners.

In addition to needing those sponsorships to be "fair market value", isn't there also a limit to how much revenue can come from businesses tied to the owners? Or is that just a rule in England, since that's who charged City? I can't recall if that was part of the UEFA investigation that they ultimate avoided.

 

[cyril C]

Great, informative thread, @Messier1994 (and respect for the user name, even though I'm a lifelong Red Wings fan).

The large majority of the thread was before the charges against City came out. There were a lot of comments about doing what City did with sponsors, and I think we are seeing that that isn't the way to go under new owners.

In addition to needing those sponsorships to be "fair market value", isn't there also a limit to how much revenue can come from businesses tied to the owners? Or is that just a rule in England, since that's who charged City? I can't recall if that was part of the UEFA investigation that they ultimate avoided.

The UEFA investigation was void only because of timeline expired, didn't mean there was no crime. Let's see how the English FA investigation lead to, probably another 20m fine and a slap on the wrist.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Last year, we announced the date for the Q2 report on 18 Feb and the report itself on 1 March. The Q2 report will be heavily skewed by no games during the World Cup, but we will also make large FX profits on our debt. Will be interesting to see when it comes out.

It's odd that the club chose not to hedge it's foreign debt exposure & is letting fluctuations dictate a good deal of it's profit & loss. I get interest rate parity, but If they have a competitive advantage in borrowing in dollars, they should still be better off.

 

[MiamiSpartan]

The UEFA investigation was void only because of timeline expired, didn't mean there was no crime. Let's see how the English FA investigation lead to, probably another 20m fine and a slap on the wrist.

Yeah, definitely not innocent, as they try to claim. I couldn't remember if it was a statute of limitations thing or some other technicality, so I just said that they avoided the investigation.

If it isn't anything more than just a fine (even a huge fine, which would still mean little to them), I think our potential new owners still want to avoid trying the same thing. I could see the FA being more harsh if another club does it. Not because they're pro-City, but more because it would mean that City being caught didn't deter others.

 

[ATXRedDevil]

Great work @Messier1994
Wishing your kid all the best in his recovery!

 

[justsomebloke]

Henderson, Willams, Bailly, Elanga and one of McTominay or Fred would generate 100% profit, would like to think that lot should generate somewhere between £80-90m.

Maguire, Wan Bisaka, VDB & Telles if sold with what's left on their book value should generate a profit of circa £25m not too mention taking another circa 32m from the amortisation figure so with both those figures it leaves with a good bit of wriggle room. £32m worth of amortisation would allow United to spend £160m on players if they were all on 5 year contract to replicate those players who've left. Lindelof another player who could generate a decent fee who's book value is very small.

As long as we finish top 4 and have new owners we'll spend big again this summer.

More like 60-70m for that first lot I think, if you can move them. Doubt we'll sell Wan-Bissaka (and if we do, we'll probably need to buy someone who costs more than we get for him). And in any case, 160 m is not that much - not considering it includes income from selling up to 9 players, and also not considering our needs.

 

[justsomebloke]

More like 60-70m for that first lot I think, if you can move them. Doubt we'll sell Wan-Bissaka (and if we do, we'll probably need to buy someone who costs more than we get for him). And in any case, 160 m is not that much - not considering it includes income from selling up to 9 players, and also not considering our needs.

Duh. Amortisation of course. With which 160m is a lot. Sorry, didn't think straight there.

 

[Oh_Dear]

Thanks! Love a spreadsheet! So if that’s at 140m added to the wage bill of circa 350m we’ve got a fair chunk to spend even without selling provided we get CL - 95m remaining based on FFP revenues of 585m (90% of 650m?) Or are there additional costs I’m missing?

Sell Scott, Maguire, Henderson and AWB that’ll up that kitty very nicely! I’m assuming when you sell the fee gets amortised over their remaining contract length? So if we got 35m for Mctominay with 5 years left it’s +7m for next 5 years? Also assuming any underspend can’t be rolled over?

I think the home grown rule will be a problem if we do this. At the end of the season I assume we'll exit or sell Williams, Jones, Greenwood, Henderson, Maguire, McTominay and Tuanzebe. If so, the 8 players who would qualify as home grown would be Heaton, Shaw, Sancho, Rashford, Elanga, AWB, Mengi and Butland (or Bishop) - the likes of Mainoo, Shoretire etc will still be U-21.