I’m not sure. I do think wages is likely do be even lower (before adding anyone) and revenue higher. And I do think a new owner is very likely to refinance and remove much of the debt. At least the part related to the last ownership change. (Dont even see that as «gifting the club», it is rather a change in capital structure.)1. The forecast just mirror 21/22 with known changes and trends (described in the post).
2. Nah, I am not an accountant, but a monetary item is for example a loan or something else that gives you a right to a certain amount of money of a certain currency. A non-monetary is for example goods, inventory etc. This is what -- should -- be included, i.e. foreign exchange results no matter if they are realised or not:
k. Foreign exchange result
The net of gains and losses on monetary items, whether realised or unrealised.
This is what not should be included:
Foreign exchange gains and losses on non-monetary items, whether realised or unrealised, are non-monetary items and must be excluded from football earnings (see Annex J.2.1 (l) and Annex J.3.1(l)).
I think you read that parts a little fast! Or?
Most of the debt, 425$ million comes from the 'senior secured notes' with fixed interest (3.79%, I think). For the rest of the debt the interest is not fixed, and the margin also increases if our indebtness exceeds certain provisions.
3. Good catch!I see now that there is a mistake in the spreadsheet for the 23' and 24' forecast. The intent was to have Operating expense plus Finance costs minus Depreciation–property, plant and equipment, but for 23' and 24' all three are just added together.
Also, Ronaldo's salary had been excluded but I had missed to remove Ole's severance. I also fine tuned the Finance Income figures for 23' and 24' (we hold securities that increase in value if the dollar gains value against the pound, to partly hedge our debt against such changes since the debt is in USD, hence financial income should decrease as the currency losses decreases).
Its getting better! Here is the new calculation:
Did anything else stick out to you guys?
With a restructure of capital like that we would basically be at zero in your calculation. All else equal (revenue and wage cost).
That is interesting as it would imply selling AWB, Maguire and Donny at book cost (£9 mill, £26 mill and £14 mill) would allow the club to spend at least £100 mill this summer given that the player we sign is on a five year contract.
The yearly ammortisation of Maguire (£13 mill), AWB (£9 mill) and Donny (£7-8 mill) amounts to close to £30 mill. Over five years that is £150 mill.