Are we the 6th best team in the league?

[ManchesterYoda]

One of my earliest memories as a child was the first game of the 1989-1990 season. The season before we had finished 11th, but as a child I simply remembered it as being rubbish. We started that 1989-1990 season by beating Arsenal 4-1 and as a child I remember getting all excited thinking we were going to win the league. Or at the very least, be much better than the season before. What actually happened is we ended up finishing 13th.

If the rating is a better indicator of how good we actually are, last season we were the 11th/12th best team in the league and we finished 5/6 places higher than we should have done.

13/14 with Moyes - 6th best team, finished 1 place lower than we should have done.
14/15 with Van Gaal - 4th best team, finished exactly where we should have done.
15/16 with Van Gaal - 10th best team, finished 5 places higher than we should have done.
16/17 with Mourinho - 4th/5th best team, finished 1/2 places lower than we should have done.
17/18 with Mourinho - 3rd best team, finished 1 place higher than we should have done.

So how good are we? Are we still the 11th/12th best team? If we are, we would need to finish 7/8 places higher in order to get the highly coveted "top 4". Is Solskjaer good enough as a manager to achieve that?

 

[noodlehair]

I'm not sure I'd trust anything as a reliable indicator that says Newcastle are better than us.

6th was about right. Leicester are the closest team to the top six and we were better than them last year. Arguably about level with Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal but when we were bad we were worse than any of those. It's going to be skewed considering how awful some of our performances under Jose were.

 

[fergiesarmy1]

Was at that 4-1 against arsenal in united road. Bruce, Hughes, Webb from what I recall (someone else I guess) - spent the rest of the night singing we are gonna win the league in many pubs.

As above we did not

 

[Tyrion]

I'm not sure I'd trust anything as a reliable indicator that says Newcastle are better than us.

6th was about right. Leicester are the closest team to the top six and we were better than them last year. Arguably about level with Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal but when we were bad we were worse than any of those.

That's a good point. Our season was one of extremes. Form that got Mourinho sacked, constant wins that got Solskjaer appointed and then constant losses until the end of the season. Maybe that screwed with Zonal Marking's ratings?

Either way, we were the 6th best team in the league last year over the course of the season. I don't really rate any calculation that rates Newcastle ahead of us given that we got 21 points more than them.

 

[bosnian_red]

We are about level for 4th with Arsenal IMO. A lot depends on how both team develops over the year. What I would say is our "question marks" have us as around with 4th with them, while we have a lot more room for growth compared to them because our defence I think is much stronger compared to them. We'll see how it pans out. If I were to do team rankings right now for this season, I'd go:

Tier 1 (title challengers):

• City, Liverpool

Tier 2 (boring position where you arent challenging for title or top 4):

• Spurs

Tier 3 (top 4 challengers):

• United, Arsenal

Tier 4 (top 6 challengers):

• Chelsea, Everton, Leicester, Wolves

Tier 5 (Mid table):

• West Ham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Watford, Burnley

Tier 6 (relegation scrap):

• Brighton, Newcastle, Southampton, Norwich, Sheffield, Aston Villa

It's what we are right now. So we have to take it step by step. Without Maguire, we were tier 4 for sure along with the rest, but sorting that position out boosted us easily. We're at a spot where we will be inconsistent, but so will Arsenal. More consistency and we go to tier 2. IMO a top holding midfielder and we go right to tier 2 anyway, but without it, tier 3 is where we are at. That's fine though. We have such a young team and have every reason to be encouraged about our prospects. People will be dramatic and overreact to every defeat, which is funny because the world knows we aren't on the level of the top 3 yet they still overreact when we do things that just show what we all know and can't change instantly.

 

[RedSky]

I'd say there's a very thin margin between Chelsea and us right now. With Arsenal still slightly ahead. Everton, Leicester and Wolves are closer to us than we are to Tottenham, let alone Liverpool or City.

We'll improve as the season goes along though but we also have a very thin squad in terms of proven talent. A few bad injuries and we're back to the average players that have held us back for several seasons. Not something i'm looking forward too.

 

[Sky1981]

If the last 15 games are the indicators we're about bottom of the table.

 

[el3mel]

It will be a fierce battle between us and Chelsea this season to prove who is more crap to deserve the 6th spot. Last season we had it easy with not contest.

 

[DevilRed]

If we don't improve on our chance creation and set pieces (including penalties) we aren't even worthy of 6th.

We simply don't create enough good chances to squander easy goals like Penalties. Thats twice in a row now. Would have changed the game.

 

[Suedesi]

Why the feck are people discounting Chelsea? They finished third last season, and Hazard apart they still got the same team as last year.

 

[Kurton]

It's wonderful to see people here still thinking we are in a fight for 4th. 6th will be an achievement with the squad depth and going by Ole's record in the last 15 or so.

 

[Judge Red]

We have the 20th best manager in the league so it’s difficult to say.

City, Liverpool and Spurs are objectively better. We’ve no right to finish in the top three. Chelsea and Arsenal aren’t really any better than us on paper this season and whoever finishes 4th will be a long way behind the top three. Wolves, Leicester and Everton have inferior players but better managed teams. Everything below that is making up the numbers and we’re in danger of falling into it.

 

[DRM]

Yes

 

[Varun]

Well, not clearly behind 5 others but margins are thin between us, chelsea and Arse in terms of 4th to 6th. The likes of Wolves and Leicester are closer to us than we are to Pool or City, that's for sure.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Team wise, probably 4th-6th, manager wise, a lot lower.

 

[Adisa]

7th.

 

[::sonny::]

6th place with Herrera, Fellaini, Lukaku

10-15th without them

 

[redshaw]

Yes 6th is where we're at but we have an unknown in Chelsea with Hazard going and Lampard in. The 4-0 could've been a high scoring draw or win for either and season openers can be weird games before anyone says we smashed them. Chelsea might do better against teams like Palace, they still have a decent squad and I'd say Lampard is a better manager than Ole.

Arsenal will probably score a lot and be out of reach. Chelsea probably penciled in at 5th with us being able to take it off them or slip out the top 6. 5th-7th range.

 

[Lentwood]

Under Jose and LvG we had bang average footballers but fantastic managers who over-achieved

Under Moyes and Ole, we had/have bang average footballers and average managers and will likely finish 6th if we’re lucky

 

[AltiUn]

Why the feck are people discounting Chelsea? They finished third last season, and Hazard apart they still got the same team as last year.

Yeah but losing Hazard is fecking huge.

 

[red4ever 79]

Im gonna for 7th thid year. Hand on heart. City, Liverpool and Spurs are much better than us. I think Arsenal will get more points than us as they will win more games than us by habing good attackers and being able to create goals. Chelsea I dont know let's see how they do. Then there are a couple of teams who could compete for 6th 7th spot us, Leicester, Wolves

 

[Bestietom]

We are a couple of injuries away from dropping down even lower this season. We need signings in January. A midfielder and a prolific goalscorer firstly.

 

[Catt]

Think we're about 4th, give or take, but we're also vulnerable to injuries. Same as Arsenal and Chelsea in particular.

 

[Infra-red]

Too soon to say. Somewhere between 4th and 8th.

 

[Greck]

We're in the 4th-6th range. There's no quantifiable metric to sort out who's 5th or 6th precisely. The rest is opinion

 

[JK-27]

It's 3 games in the season. 3. And we're already 5 points off the lead! We'll be luck to make the top 10.

 

[harms]

Why the feck are people discounting Chelsea? They finished third last season, and Hazard apart they still got the same team as last year.

Because Hazard was by far their best and most important player. Personally I don’t think that either us, Arsenal or Chelsea are significantly better or worse that the other two.

 

[Godfather]

Because Hazard was by far their best and most important player. Personally I don’t think that either us, Arsenal or Chelsea are significantly better or worse that the other two.

Arsenal's attack is way better than ours and will he the difference this year.

 

[NJM78]

We will be no higher than 6th. I'm super confident about this and actually had a £50 bet on before season started. We messed up the window, its plain and simple, we are not as good as we were last season in midfield or attack and we were bad enough last year.

Will get £1900 returns so that should soften the blow.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

God knows. I think we're very shit.

 

[Kill 'em all]

I hope I'm wrong but my prediction for this season is between 8th and 12th. If we manage anything better it will be a huge achievement.

 

[Baneofthegame]

Probably, we certainly have one of the most inept front offices in the league that’s for sure.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

We are no higher than that, that's for sure.

Our forward line options:

Marcus Rashford
Anthony Martial
Mason Greenwood

Two guys who are lucky to get 15 a season on a good day and a 17yr old lad.

Top 6 is our level.

 

[AlwaysRed66]

I like how many disregard Chelsea. A side who make loads of chances with attacking football, & if they can get better defensively will be a threat. Compared to us who hardly create anything, unless playing an attacking team. Five shots on goal total against defensive Wolves & Palace says it all.

 

[Raven96__]

Yes. Your best chance is only beating Arsenal imo.

 

[hobbers]

Leicester are definitely ahead of us.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

6th

 

[The Boy]

If the last 15 games are the indicators we're about bottom of the table.

If the last 30 are indicators you're not, you can change the stats dramatically by choosing where you want to start them

Arsenal's attack is way better than ours and will he the difference this year.

Your defence is way better than theirs.

Basically, the doom is quick to return here, fair enough, you've been burnt quite a bit in the recent past.

But you have a clear strategy now, it's a good one too and you are exciting to watch, I'm enjoying watching you lot for the first time in years!
So many people said they would be happy with just that change this season.

Then the penalties ... people miss them, it happens, if those two had gone in I doubt any of the "are we 6th best in the league" "wake up call" "we aren't great" threads would exist, 2 pens that's a tiny difference and I still don't understand how Rashford's didn't go in! Finally remember Palace beat city at the Etihad last season, Newcastle just beat Spurs, these results happen, like you were against Wolves, you were clearly the better team, if you were getting beat comprehensively (like you were at Everton last season) then fine, but you're not.

I know people are pissed off, but I wouldn't write off your season yet, your front 3 have scored 2 each them in 3 games, you are creating (22 shots against palace, 11 against Chelsea, 9 against Wolves) your front 3 have pace to burn, things are changing at OT give it a bit of time, this team will only improve as the season goes on.

 

[Judas]

I think 6th is being a bit generous.

 

[NoPace]

At gunpoint I'd say 6th because if I was naming Chelsea's best possible XI I probably wouldn't include Giroud, Pedro, Loftus-Cheek, Barkley, Willian, Mount, Alonso, Reece James or Zouma and that seems like enough depth to squeak past us.

If we lose Pogba or McTominay for a few games we might be in real trouble in midfield and it's tough to see us finding 6th place level production from the #10 or RW spots, whereas Chelsea don't really have any positions where you'd say they're basically a 12th-18th place quality side.

We have the better defence, but Chelsea and definitely Arsenal have more goals in them.

Worth noting that it's easier to see us signing an attacking midfielder in January and it helping us a ton, whereas Arsenal probably aren't going to seriously address their defensive issues and Chelsea can't. So, if we sign a winger or 10, maybe?