Anybody from Spain could tell us if the government will use force to stop this referendum? That could be bad and drag Spain to terrorism and more provinces requesting a referendum imo.
Catalonia referendum| Catalonia declares independence from Spain
- Thread starter barros
- Start date
This is very interesting re Catalonia and I am not sure how to call it. You are correct that Spain has previously threatened military action and I know other Spanish people will not drink wine from that region if they separate.
They do have their own language and I believe there is a similar smaller linguistic group in France and also on at least one of the Balearics.
The risks for Spain is that the Basques might advocate similarly for independence and both regions are more prosperous than most other Spanish regions which means Spain would be poorer.
In terms of football I would think Spanish chances of the world cup would be harmed though perhaps after 2018!
They do have their own language and I believe there is a similar smaller linguistic group in France and also on at least one of the Balearics.
The risks for Spain is that the Basques might advocate similarly for independence and both regions are more prosperous than most other Spanish regions which means Spain would be poorer.
In terms of football I would think Spanish chances of the world cup would be harmed though perhaps after 2018!
I see a better reason for Scotland to hold a referendum than Catalonia.
I can't see the Spanish government letting them proceed. Even with Partido Popular having been weakened in the previous elections, there's surely far too much opposition in terms of public opinion. Catalans might dismiss that as unimportant, but the government has that support behind them to clamp down on it. As ironic as it seems, they'd need to endear themselves more to the rest of Spain to push on with it.
Nor do I see this spreading in any way. People will invariably point to the Basques, although they have far more autonomy than other region anyway, Catalonia included. If anything, after ETA disarmed earlier this year, the situation with them has only been getting smoother.
As for other regions, I can't think of any beyond them that have anything resembling a desire for independence. Which regions do you think would request a referendum @barros?
Nor do I see this spreading in any way. People will invariably point to the Basques, although they have far more autonomy than other region anyway, Catalonia included. If anything, after ETA disarmed earlier this year, the situation with them has only been getting smoother.
As for other regions, I can't think of any beyond them that have anything resembling a desire for independence. Which regions do you think would request a referendum @barros?
10 years ago there was no organised movement for independence. The central government made martyrs out of those who started it, by oppressing them. Any minimal engagement would have stopped the momentum for independence. They played into the hands of those who want to leave. Now we are at the point where the supporters have enough support that they might win a referendum. The government is fecked now. They can prevent it in the short run, but this will just further strengthen those who want secession. Nvm what this will to economy and political system.
So this referendum in non-binding on the government, presumably? Is it just a protest vote or will it have genuine ramifications?
Non-binding. It's not obvious what in practical terms the nationalists would do if they win, other than add pressure.
With central government trying to block the voting and threatening financial consequences of it goes ahead, it feels like they've escalated it. The regional authorities already have a lot of control, including over taxation. The easiest route always sounded like more concessions on autonomy, I guess they've decided that it's not that easy.
Non binding. The problem for the government is that the region is strengthening their own administration. They might simply go ahead without consent, which puts the central government in an awkward spot.
I thought the Basques was the bigger issue tbh, albeit I don't know a lot about this, but I do love Spain.
If they have taxation control, how much more can you devolve? We saw what threats did with Brexit
If they do go ahead with the referendum and vote out, what could they do next? Given the current climate, any militant or terrorist action would kill all sympathy. No idea how they could take this forward and we'd have all of the constitutional EU questions all over again.
I wouldn't necessarily want a more integrated Europe, but the current fragmentation trend doesn't sit well either.
The problem for the central government is that they'll have to use force to stop them, which would make them look really really really bad. Nobody wants to see police (or even the military) march into the parliament to arrest the political leadership.
The regional government can have the referendum, build up their own administration (that's quite realistic) and simply declare independence.
Each step is going to take time, but ultimately there is a realistic non violent way to get it done.
It feels like one of those things that's inevitable eventually. If the Catalonians genuinely want independence then the Spanish state using force is only going to propel them even closer towards it.
A few years back I believe Galicia had some groups who wanted to be independent from Spain.
Is a big problem in Spain and the fact Catalonia have their culture and language, crushed over the centuries by Madrid I can see why they want to be independent.
Thanks for the answer. I live in Spain and I've honestly never heard anything about the prospect of an independent Galicia. As far as I know, they were oppressed under Franco in terms of their language being outlawed (and other ways, I'm sure), and there definitely is an animosity there, but not so much that it will initiate such a thing.
Going back to Catalonia, I don't think it's quite as cut and dry in that region as people might think, which is to say it's far from being the case that the vast majority of Catalans are overwhelmingly in favour of independence. I regularly speak to Catalans and I get the impression that they don't feel that their politicians are as noble as they portray themselves as being, and they're abusing the issue nowadays.
All this started some years ago with the Estatut, the rules of every Comunidad Autónoma(region).
They (Cataluña)wanted to change the tax regime to something similar to Basque Country,which with Navarra has a special system called "Régimen Foral".
Basically they can regulate their taxes and the contribution to the solidarity fund among regions.
For a while they repeated a lot the: Spain steals us, we have to pay more while the lazy Andalusians rest. The idea that they are a modern, "European" people, while we are right-wing hicks.
As they did not succeed the traditional Catalan nationalist party(previously Convergencia i Unió) from bourgeois origins began a more aggressive campaign(before they were happy with coalitions to get more money). Right now they are in a 51% coalition with two other nationalist parties, Esquerra and Cup, which is the extreme left, anticapitalist and most radical (burning spanish flags, graffitis in political groups headquarters, with a clear warning of their disobedience to the Constitution(The main law, which doesn´t allow referendums).
This nationalist party(Convergencia), which could be considered (previously) moderate has sold in its campaign the referendum, so they will have to take it to its final consequences.
Already in the Catalan parliament they passed a law for the referendum bypassing all the rules of the chamber, even denying the word to jurists, who repeated the illegality of all this.
This is what happens when you allow a nationalist government to command for 30 years, controlling police, education, health,etc and selling that Spain is the enemy. Nowadays the history books in Catalonia say that Spain is an invader and in the regional television you can see children being interviewed with the independence flag.
There are even cases of parents who have taken the Generalitat (the Catalan government) to court since they didn´t have the possibility of studying Spanish in Cataluña.
Nowadays any act in which the central government intervenes is considered fascist.At present the word fascista can be heard continuously in every online debate on this subject, even with references to the civil war.
Personally I think there is a lot of brainwashing. There is a big social division in Cataluña, between the independentists( traditionally the province of Girona and small towns, and middle and high class from Barcelona) and those who are not, many of them, the "charnegos" (emigrants and children of emigrants from other regions of Spain), who are called "botiflers" (traitors).
On the other hand the party of the government, the PP (right) is very weakened by their cases of corruption with many criticisms of the management of the Catalan problem.
There is no bridge of dialogue (although the Catalan government does not seek it), nor gestures that can reassure the population.
The policy of Rajoy is based in repeat that the Constitution denies the referendum, and a fear-based policy "You will not be in the EU", "companies will leave", blabla, which has consequently give strengh to the independence sector.
The government is acting very cautious. During these first days they have moved the guardia civil(police of military origin) and given orders to the mossos the esquadra(regional Catalan police) to act against the referendum. At the moment only a couple of printers have been registered, to avoid that they print propaganda or ballots . Obviously the Catalan government is waiting for the photo of a guardia civil arresting or hitting someone, to repeat again that the Spanish state is fascist.
They are not only looking for the independence of Cataluña, but the "Paisos catalans", what was the old reign of Aragón , but since they don´t have too much history ,they are only demanding Cataluña, Valencia and Baleares. The regions with a similar language.
They (Cataluña)wanted to change the tax regime to something similar to Basque Country,which with Navarra has a special system called "Régimen Foral".
Basically they can regulate their taxes and the contribution to the solidarity fund among regions.
For a while they repeated a lot the: Spain steals us, we have to pay more while the lazy Andalusians rest. The idea that they are a modern, "European" people, while we are right-wing hicks.
As they did not succeed the traditional Catalan nationalist party(previously Convergencia i Unió) from bourgeois origins began a more aggressive campaign(before they were happy with coalitions to get more money). Right now they are in a 51% coalition with two other nationalist parties, Esquerra and Cup, which is the extreme left, anticapitalist and most radical (burning spanish flags, graffitis in political groups headquarters, with a clear warning of their disobedience to the Constitution(The main law, which doesn´t allow referendums).
This nationalist party(Convergencia), which could be considered (previously) moderate has sold in its campaign the referendum, so they will have to take it to its final consequences.
Already in the Catalan parliament they passed a law for the referendum bypassing all the rules of the chamber, even denying the word to jurists, who repeated the illegality of all this.
This is what happens when you allow a nationalist government to command for 30 years, controlling police, education, health,etc and selling that Spain is the enemy. Nowadays the history books in Catalonia say that Spain is an invader and in the regional television you can see children being interviewed with the independence flag.
There are even cases of parents who have taken the Generalitat (the Catalan government) to court since they didn´t have the possibility of studying Spanish in Cataluña.
Nowadays any act in which the central government intervenes is considered fascist.At present the word fascista can be heard continuously in every online debate on this subject, even with references to the civil war.
Personally I think there is a lot of brainwashing. There is a big social division in Cataluña, between the independentists( traditionally the province of Girona and small towns, and middle and high class from Barcelona) and those who are not, many of them, the "charnegos" (emigrants and children of emigrants from other regions of Spain), who are called "botiflers" (traitors).
On the other hand the party of the government, the PP (right) is very weakened by their cases of corruption with many criticisms of the management of the Catalan problem.
There is no bridge of dialogue (although the Catalan government does not seek it), nor gestures that can reassure the population.
The policy of Rajoy is based in repeat that the Constitution denies the referendum, and a fear-based policy "You will not be in the EU", "companies will leave", blabla, which has consequently give strengh to the independence sector.
The government is acting very cautious. During these first days they have moved the guardia civil(police of military origin) and given orders to the mossos the esquadra(regional Catalan police) to act against the referendum. At the moment only a couple of printers have been registered, to avoid that they print propaganda or ballots . Obviously the Catalan government is waiting for the photo of a guardia civil arresting or hitting someone, to repeat again that the Spanish state is fascist.
They are not only looking for the independence of Cataluña, but the "Paisos catalans", what was the old reign of Aragón , but since they don´t have too much history ,they are only demanding Cataluña, Valencia and Baleares. The regions with a similar language.
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The spanish government shouldn't give any attention to the referendum and at the end of the day they could accuse them of inflating the results, i dont think people realize for them to be independent without any help from spain and europe they wouldn't succed and obviously a weak spain is bad for portugal and europe.
I personally believe that a well-organized referendum -where the yes and the no could do a fair campaign- the no to independence would win, but this is not the case, for them it is a simple confirmation of the yes.
It will be a complicated issue, beyond 1st October.
Regarding what you said, the regions considered historic in Spain are Basque Country,Navarra, Galicia and Catalonia.
The nationalist sentiment of the three regions is strong, and some people(including former presidents as Felipe González) consider that in Galicia is where is possible to feel a different Spain, nevertheless in Galicia always wins the PP, we are a region with a lot of elders, right and conservative.
Things in the Basque Country have calmed down. There is a very strong feeling but they live very well. No one is ready to go to jail anymore.
@carvajal what do you think will be the end result in all of this? For example, do you think it's possible that there'll be a compromise and Catalonia will be granted more autonomy like the Basque Country? If not, do you have any other predictions?
This was already tried two years ago and most politicians were disabled but this seems to be a different case. The ruling party in Catalonia remains in power thanks to the CUP, the anti-capitalists, who demand to go to the limit. I think that the most reasonable would be new elections in Catalonia, and that PP(right), Ciudadanos(cool version of PP) and PSOE(left) join in the government to expel the independentists parties, but unfortunately I think that the ideas and the control that they have on the institutions is very rooted. They have a lot of autonomy, it is difficult to give them more. Maybe the only idea is to give them more money but the picture will not change until the state regains its presence
If PP loses the elections, there will be a PSOE government, which will have to accord, and will surely include a referendum.
@carvajal great explanations. What I find remarkable is that those who seek independence were very weak just a few years ago. They had no majority. It wasn't even close. Yet because it was handled so poorly more and more people are taking their side. That indicates to me, that all of that could have been avoided.
That's also one of my biggest criticisms towards their movement: they try to make a extremely consequential decision without a solid majority. That's very irresponsible and undemocratic. A narrow win in a skewed referendum is not enough to gain enough legitimacy for such a big decision.
That's also one of my biggest criticisms towards their movement: they try to make a extremely consequential decision without a solid majority. That's very irresponsible and undemocratic. A narrow win in a skewed referendum is not enough to gain enough legitimacy for such a big decision.
Yes, I think it would have been nice to give affection to Catalonia and perhaps give them partially a new tax system. It would be good to recover the presence of the state, or even regain powers, but today, a loss of powers would be seen as a centralist attack, so I do not know very well what the government can do.
I think that Spain should allow a free referendum, but I also think that any referendum for independence should decided by a 2/3 majority (and I think the same for any other separatist movement going in Europe).
As things are going, there is no way that this might end well for Spain.
As things are going, there is no way that this might end well for Spain.
If only we had the two thirds majority safeguard...
Yep.
If we consider Scotland and the bad feeling there with narrowly losing, based on winning 50% of the vote. Let's consider that bad feeling when their language is the same as spoken in the rest of the UK. In Catalonia I understand the language difference is a big part of this cultural difference.
It's a factor, but far more complex than that, as they also speak the same language in Valencia (Valencian) and the Balearic Islands, and they aren't clamoring for independence.
Is that because the concentration of Catalonian speakers is much higher than in Valencia and the Balearics?
I don't think that works at all in practice. You get 55% voting to leave but not being able to leave and then you are repressing the democratic right of the majority. The issue doesn't go away it festers and intensifies. If you can't hold a region inside your country by the majority then you have to let it leave. The bigger problem is that even if the vote is to remain the issue isn't forever settled and it goes on as a kind of blackmail, give us more money/autonomy or we leave.
The EU as an institution is gradually replacing the nation-state as a relevant layer of governance and undermining the coherence of the nation-states.
As far as I know, not really. The posts by carvajal are a good analysis of why Catalonia finds itself where it is.
Agree with what you are saying on the voting percentages yet don't see the EU as being behind this push for independence. Catalonia would not necessarily be recognised as a new member nation within the EU (remember Scotland on this?), in fact it would probably give them a big headache due to the protest of Spain and other nations that could see secessionist forces start to be encouraged elsewhere.
Separation is a big issue, and isn't something that should be decided by a marginal decision. I am all for giving people the right to decide in what country they want to live, but it should be the vast majority of people who want that, not just slightly more than the other side.
@Don't Kill Bill makes a valid point though. If you hold a referendum on an issue and the majority doesn't win, then the problem itself doesn't actually go away; it just festers until it eventually does come to pass. You end up in a position where the separatist group have obtained a majority, and can then campaign and argue on the principle that the central government is denying the will of the majority. Which is what they're effectively doing.
It's a tricky one, though. I'd generally agree with the point that referendums can be quite tricky, and that we're better off allowing governments to make their own decisions on such matters because that's what we've elected them for, but the problem with secession is that a referendum's probably the only way to settle it because a government's never going to willingly declare a portion of their country independent of them.
Denying the will of the majority never sets a good precedent though, as it means the issue just doesn't go away and remains unsettled. Plus it inherently places one side at an advantage over the other, which shouldn't really be the case in any democratic process.
The EU isn't pushing directly but it is indirectly undermining the reason for the existence of large nation states by its very existence. Once you have a framework for small nation states and regions within larger nation states to exist as entities and to organize themselves within super-national bodies like the EU without consequence you are saying the nation-state is dead. I'm not sure this thinking is correct but it is the direction of travel and is a cause of the idea of the viability of small state thinking.
I hope I don't offend anyone with this question, but why is Catalonia a part of Spain in the first place? The language they speak is different, and the people appear to be of a separate and distinct heritage.
I think that their character and heritage is more Mediterranean than proper "Catalan". They themselves consider that their independence is more cultural than historical. Spain has always been formed by different territories completely different, forming a kind of union. There are about 10 regions that could be independent based on cultural criteria, language, history or insularity.
How feasible is an independent Catalonia? Can they be self sustainable - do they have a lot of natural resources? I've heard there's a lot of industry in the region, but what type of industry?
If Catalonia became an independent nation, they'd have the 22nd biggest population in Europe (between Switzerland and Bulgaria), and the 14th biggest GDP (between Denmark and Norway). I think they'd be okay.
Spanish national team might be a bit fecked.