Champions League Round of 16 (14th Feb - 15th Mar)

united_99

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Watched it back then. Don't forget Bayern were the clear underdogs before the match; and the first shot at the Bayern goal happened in min 90+1
Then your memory can’t be that good. Strange how United had more shots on target, more possession and more corners than Bayern but somehow it was an undeserved win and title.
Maybe the ref should have ended the game after Basler’s goal and declared poor underdog Bayern as winners.
 

united_99

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The final 1999 reminds me of yesterday's game again. Only United didn't wake up in the 73 min but in extra time only.
Though, you were much more clinical than PSG yesterday.
Well, thankfully the wins are not handed out by how certain fans remember the game, but by what actually happened.
 

united_99

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I always remember Bayern dominating the final. They hit the post too. United were lacklustre until injury time
We scored two late goals after chasing the game for 80+ minutes. That’s the short version which people remember. And Bayern hit the post, yes. So what? We still had more chances and more of the ball. How does this compare to the 2012 final at all?
 

The Corinthian

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I always remember Bayern dominating the final. They hit the post too. United were lacklustre until injury time
No - they retrospectively did a xG analysis of the game and we won on that. We also won on the normal stats they use. This idea that we were dominated and won through luck is a myth.
 

2ndTouch

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Then your memory can’t be that good. Strange how United had more shots on target, more possession and more corners than Bayern but somehow it was an undeserved win and title.
Quality of chances matters, and while we hit post and bar (Jancker and Scholl), you didn't have a quality moment until the very end. It could have been 3:0, but we didn't bag it, and in the end in turned into a classic smash & grab for you.
 

united_99

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Quality of chances matters, and while we hit post and bar (Jancker and Scholl), you didn't have a quality moment until the very end. It could have been 3:0, but we didn't bag it, and in the end in turned into a classic smash & grab for you.
We won the stats, we won the xG trophy and we won the most important stat which has always mattered the most: the end result … but if it makes you feel better that you could have won 3-0 then fine.
 

united_99

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Quality of chances matters, and while we hit post and bar (Jancker and Scholl), you didn't have a quality moment until the very end. It could have been 3:0, but we didn't bag it, and in the end in turned into a classic smash & grab for you.
Plus that reply was to the poster claiming the first shot at the Bayern goal happened in min 90+1. But maybe he meant the first United goal happened in min 90+1 :cool:
 

AltiUn

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I always forget Bayern fans still have a big chip on their shoulder about '99.
 

Acrobat7

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I always forget Bayern fans still have a big chip on their shoulder about '99.
It is not really a thing anymore. This is also supported by the fact that after the worst moments (United and Chelsea), Bayern's teams won the cup the next year or the year after. This has healed many wounds. Most Bayern fans have a positive image of United because it is the most comparable team to them in England.
 

AltiUn

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It is not really a thing anymore. This is also supported by the fact that after the worst moments (United and Chelsea), Bayern's teams won the cup the next year or the year after. This has healed many wounds. Most Bayern fans have a positive image of United because it is the most comparable team to them in England.
That's strange because I've always considered United's German counterparts to be VfL Bochum.
 

2ndTouch

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Not one of their chances scores more than 0.25 xG on StatsBomb’s model. Their best is Carsten Jancker’s overhead kick, late on and from the edge of the six-yard box, which struck the crossbar.

Yet just because Bayern took a lot of low-value shots does not mean they did not come close to scoring with them. Mehmet Scholl’s chip from outside the box was rated 0.06 xG, yet beat Schmeichel and bounced back off the post.
Welcome to xG, where the quality of actual chances are measured by what the StatBomb model deems likely, and not what's happening on the pitch . But I suppose it's great to have some dodgy stat peddlers to back you up in case you don't like what you see.



They could have equalised earlier through Jesper Blomqvist. Ryan Giggs, deployed as an inverted winger on the right, cut inside and crossed for the man playing in his usual position out on the left. While sliding to reach the pass, Blomqvist put a two-in-five chance wide.


Blomqvist’s chance, after 56 minutes
(StatsBomb)
“He couldn’t quite take Manchester United’s best chance of the night so far,” noted Clive Tyldesley on commentary. Tyldesley was right. It was United’s best chance up until that point. It would be the best they created in the regulation 90 minutes.
This chance has been rated with an xG of 0.4 by StatBomb. A shot that wasn't even on target.
 

The Corinthian

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Welcome to xG, where the quality of actual chances are measured by what the StatBomb model deems likely, and not what's happening on the pitch . But I suppose it's great to have some dodgy stat peddlers to back you up in case you don't like what you see.





This chance has been rated with an xG of 0.4 by StatBomb. A shot that wasn't even on target.
This post is the xG equivalent of "Fergie bought the ref StatsBomb!!!".

Anyway, here's a secondary source and how they see it:

 

Antarion

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I don't remember much of that final tbf, just a sentence from my dad in my head: Hitzfeld blew it by taking Matthäus off the pitch and so they lost structure in the end
 

2ndTouch

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This post is the xG equivalent of "Fergie bought the ref StatsBomb!!!".
I do not question StatBomb in particular, I question the validity of xG in general, especially when people try to use it to create an alternative narrative. Blomqvist's shot, although not on target, was valued higher than both chances of Jancker and Scholl combined.
 

The Corinthian

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I do not question StatBomb in particular, I question the validity of xG in general, especially when people try to use it to create an alternative narrative. Blomqvist's shot, although not on target, was valued higher than both chances of Jancker and Scholl combined.
I agree to an extent - I'm not a fan of using xG to analyse a game in isolation (it's a more useful metric when looking for trends over a period of time).

But the reason I'm using it in my argument is to dispel the myth that is was total Bayern domination save for the last few minutes. It really wasn't. Face value stats on the game will tell you then (ie shots on / off target, possession, all weighted towards Man Utd). The xG also backs it up in terms of quality of chances.
 

Red&Black

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the atomsphere at san siro last night was insanity. even when things aren't going well, those fans are unreal...

anyways, that win should be massive for us in general. we are going through another insane injury spell, and provided all our players return (many of which are starters/top subs) then we have a very good chance to qualify.

i enjoyed the game. a lot. obviously. but to lock down an offensive "juggernaut" of players like that with a 50yr kjaer and 14yr old thiaw is amazing to me.
 

giorno

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I do not question StatBomb in particular, I question the validity of xG in general, especially when people try to use it to create an alternative narrative. Blomqvist's shot, although not on target, was valued higher than both chances of Jancker and Scholl combined.
Because it was. Blomqvist chance was easier to convert than either Jancker's or Scholl's. Scholl in particular was a low quality chance turned almost into a goal by a great shot. Ultimately the stats assessment of the game is pretty accurate - first 80 minutes were cagey, very little happening besides Basler's goal, then Bayern get a couple chances late on to kill the game as United get desperate, miss them, then United creates and converts two big chances in injury time to win it. Not too dissimilar from Madrid vs City actually, where at the 88' minute City are kinda deservedly winning 1-0, but then at full time Real Madrid have deservedly won 2-1
 

AltiUn

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Why would they? They got revenge against us 2 years later enroute to winning the cup, and have knocked us out twice in Europe since
Wouldn’t know, I’m not a Bayern fan.
 

stefan92

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I do not question StatBomb in particular, I question the validity of xG in general, especially when people try to use it to create an alternative narrative. Blomqvist's shot, although not on target, was valued higher than both chances of Jancker and Scholl combined.
The thing is that xG rates situations, not shot quality. Hitting the post from a difficult spot is a great shot, but a low quality chance because it needs a really great shot to convert.

Or in other words, United had better chances, Bayern had better shots. xG rates just the former.
 

always_hoping

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Club Brugge v Benfica in the Champions league tonight and Barcelona v Man United in the Europa league tomorrow. Don't need to wonder which game will get the largest viewership...
 

Acrobat7

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Club Brugge v Benfica in the Champions league tonight and Barcelona v Man United in the Europa league tomorrow. Don't need to wonder which game will get the largest viewership...
Barcelona lost and drew to Inter while Benfica topped a group with PSG and Juve. Brügge qualified over Leverkusen and Atleti.
Both deserve to be there. But of course I will admitt, that United vs Barca "sounds" better.
 

cyberman

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Barcelona lost and drew to Inter while Benfica topped a group with PSG and Juve. Brügge qualified over Leverkusen and Atleti.
Both deserve to be there. But of course I will admitt, that United vs Barca "sounds" better.
Not just sounds but is of a higher quality match up
 

Lay

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It’s Scott Parker’s first CL managerial game tonight. So far for Brugge he has a 14% win record. Though he’s only lost the 1 game, they’ve drawn 5.
 

cyberman

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Yeah Brugge and Benfica should be kicked out for United v Barcelona instead :drool:
Not saying that but it’s strange that you could make an argument that 3 of the best. What? 5 best teams in the world at the minute are in the EL.
 

Siorac

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I do not question StatBomb in particular, I question the validity of xG in general, especially when people try to use it to create an alternative narrative. Blomqvist's shot, although not on target, was valued higher than both chances of Jancker and Scholl combined.
But that can be perfectly reasonable. Situation A can be described as a bigger chance than Situation B even if the latter was closer to being a goal. For an extreme example: if a striker blasts well over the empty net from five meters out, that's undoubtedly a bigger chance than a 30-metre screamer that hits the bar.

I don't even remember Blomqvist's shot though to be honest so there's that.
 

always_hoping

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Barcelona lost and drew to Inter while Benfica topped a group with PSG and Juve. Brügge qualified over Leverkusen and Atleti.
Both deserve to be there. But of course I will admitt, that United vs Barca "sounds" better.
And much more world wide will be viewing the game on Thursday.
 

Acrobat7

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Not saying that but it’s strange that you could make an argument that 3 of the best. What? 5 best teams in the world at the minute are in the EL.
who are those 3 EL teams that are top 5 in the world if I may ask?
 

BorisManUtd

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1st time Dortmund and Chelsea play each other. 1st CL knockout game for Potter as well.