Your best 3 penalty takers have to go 1-2-3. There is just no other way mathematically.
Coppa Italia Final 2020 - Juventus vs. Napoli - 3 PM EST/ 8 PM BST
- Thread starter Ronaldo's Mum Eh?
- Start date
There are 'acolytes' for everything it seems. It's prolly not as clear cut as that. But I think that's the way to go. At least when you're one miss away from losing, the best takers should then step forward. Waiting for your turn as 5th as if it's always this magical decisive penalty makes no sense.
preachOk so let's look at this
As a team you're only guaranteed to take 3 penalties, anything beyond this depends on the performance of your takers and the opponent's takers
Assigning arbitrary importance to the 5th taker assumes that it wins the shootout if scored. It also assumes that you make it to the 5th
I think we can all assume that in order to maximize your chances of winning a shootout, you should score your first 3 penalties, so they should be assigned to players who have a great record at the spot
Question: let's say you have 5 penalty takers. 4 are great, 1 is bad. How do you arrange them such that you maximize their chances of winning?
I think you place the bad taker last. There is a non-zero chance the opposition falters such that he will never need to take a penalty.
Second question: Let's say you have 3 excellent penalty takers. 1 is slightly better than the rest. Is there any marginal benefit in placing the best player anywhere other than 1st in the pecking position, as some sort of hedge against a miss by his team-mates? Is it best for him to go 2nd or 3rd?
Third question: should this arrangement be independent of the opposition's line-up? Let's say you're facing Juventus. Should your penalty lineup be altered depending on where Ronaldo is placed in the taker list?
I think Ronaldo shouldn't take a penalty last. He should be 1st to 3rd. 1st? I'd like to know more before saying such a definitive statement, which admittedly sounds good at first glance.
As a team you're only guaranteed to take 3 penalties, anything beyond this depends on the performance of your takers and the opponent's takers
Assigning arbitrary importance to the 5th taker assumes that it wins the shootout if scored. It also assumes that you make it to the 5th
I think we can all assume that in order to maximize your chances of winning a shootout, you should score your first 3 penalties, so they should be assigned to players who have a great record at the spot
Question: let's say you have 5 penalty takers. 4 are great, 1 is bad. How do you arrange them such that you maximize their chances of winning?
I think you place the bad taker last. There is a non-zero chance the opposition falters such that he will never need to take a penalty.
Second question: Let's say you have 3 excellent penalty takers. 1 is slightly better than the rest. Is there any marginal benefit in placing the best player anywhere other than 1st in the pecking position, as some sort of hedge against a miss by his team-mates? Is it best for him to go 2nd or 3rd?
Third question: should this arrangement be independent of the opposition's line-up? Let's say you're facing Juventus. Should your penalty lineup be altered depending on where Ronaldo is placed in the taker list?
I think Ronaldo shouldn't take a penalty last. He should be 1st to 3rd. 1st? I'd like to know more before saying such a definitive statement, which admittedly sounds good at first glance.
I think it omits penalties in shootouts, but according to Transfermarkt's stats, Dybala and Ronaldo are both at a 0.84 penalty conversion rate. I know Ronaldo's sample size is 5 times bigger but still, there's nothing wrong with putting someone like Dybala first imo.
What I do agree on is that Ronaldo shouldn't be the 5th one but rather one of the first 3, yeah.
I think Gerrard was also #5 in our CL win against Milan, which still makes no sense to me.
Pretty much how I feel. The presumption that the 5th penalty is going to be the most crucial and decisive is flawed considering the variables involved and the chances of the plan being undone. 1st to 3rd taken by your best to give yourselves the best shot at leading is IMO the way to go
That wasn't the last penalty, was it? Did the shootout go to sudden death? As you can tell I've successfully erased most of the second half and penalties from my memory.
But now that you mention Gerrard, I'm thinking now it's more of an ego thing. Terry also went 5th in 2008.
Could definitely be the case, yeah. Shevchenko missed their fifth penalty so we only had to take 4. Gerrard didn’t go, so always assumed he was 5th. Has probably discussed it somewhere in an interview already, don’t think it’s exactly classified information
Rumour is that he is negotiating an extension of contract into 2020-2021 season
You know something's just not right at Juve when Ronaldo can put a better cross in with a rabona than all other Juve players except Dybala can with a normal kick of the ball.
There was a TV programme that studied the best order (can't remember what it was called) and it found that you were better off placing your strongest penalty takers both first and last. First to get off on a good foot and reduce the pressure thereafter. And last because it was when the stakes were highest and you didn't want that pressure compounded on someone who wasn't used to taking them. At least that's how I remembered it.
Which is essentially what Juve did. Dybala usually has a stellar record from the spot and with no Pjanic on the pitch, he was a logical choice at first.
Ronaldo, the only other reliable taker, understandably was set to go last. I think Dybala missing his pen set the tone for their demise rather than Ronaldo not taking one.