Data: What it takes to succeed in the league now vs a decade ago

Skills

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I've been looking at some numbers over the last two decades of the Premier League, to see what has changed in what it takes to win the league/finish in top 4.

Attack


  • The average PL winning team between 99/00 to 08/09 scored : 77.7 goals.
  • The average PL winning team between 09/10 to 18/19 scored : 88.9 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 99/00 to 08/09 scored : 62.3 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 09/10 to 18/19 scored: 70.7 goals.
Defence


  • The average PL winning team between 99/00 to 08/09 conceded : 28.2 goals.
  • The average PL winning team between 09/10 to 18/19 conceded : 32.9 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 99/00 to 08/09 conceded : 37.7 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 09/10 to 18/19 conceded: 40 goals.
Points

  • The average PL winning team between 99/00 to 08/09 gained : 88.3 points.
  • The average PL winning team between 09/10 to 18/19 gained : 88.9 points.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 99/00 to 08/09 gained : 67.7 points.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 09/10 to 18/19 gained: 71.7 points.

If anyone is interested in a similar thread, I made one earlier in the year which tried to show how attacking has a more profound effect on your league position than defending : https://www.redcafe.net/threads/data-why-scoring-goals-is-more-important-than-conceding-less.447862/
 
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peridigm

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Can you add numbers for being safe from relegation? Asking for a friend.
 

Chipper

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I remember a couple of seasons where Liverpool got the 4th placed trophy with 60 and then Everton with 61 the following year. Was early Abramovich era at Chelsea then ever since then the top teams upped their games to try and compete.

Chelsea projected for around 69 this season in 4th isn't dramatically low but not that high either. 5th place is being projected for 60 in fairly reliable sources and that is definitely low for very recent seasons where around 70 isn't unusual and 60 hasn't really cut the mustard for over a decade.
 
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Skills

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Can you add numbers for being safe from relegation? Asking for a friend.
I'll post them tonight.
 

DickDastardly

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So, basically, you're telling us that everybody else caught up with Fergies point of view - score more then your opposition of the day.

And yet, here we are, spunking 80 milions on a centerback.

It's why Sir Alex was the greatest, he adapted quickly and he saw whats needed to win the title.

Remember our last title? feck me, we we're behind in almost every game, yet we piled on the pressure and eventually won the game. Ugly games, 3-2s and 4-3s...but a win after win.

Wonder if the tide to defending will change back.
Certainly not with Klopp and Pep around.
 

WR10

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Only real point to be taken from those: Scoring goals is more important than keeping a clean sheet. There’s a reason why Mourinho has gone out of fashion unfortunately
 

Skills

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Can you add numbers for being safe from relegation? Asking for a friend.

  • The average 17th position team between 99/00 to 08/09 scored : 37.7 goals.
  • The average 17th position team between 09/10 to 18/19 scored : 41.1 goals.
  • The average 17th position team between 99/00 to 08/09 conceded : 59.2 goals.
  • The average 17th position team between 09/10 to 18/19 conceded 61.4 goals
 

peridigm

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  • The average 17th position team between 99/00 to 08/09 scored : 37.7 goals.
  • The average 17th position team between 09/10 to 18/19 scored : 41.1 goals.
  • The average 17th position team between 99/00 to 08/09 conceded : 59.2 goals.
  • The average 17th position team between 09/10 to 18/19 conceded 61.4 goals
Safe to say if we score the same amount of goals in the 2nd half of the season we'll be safe. Whew...
 

ATXRedDevil

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I was surprised the average points of the champions wasn’t much higher for the last 10 years compared to the prior 10. Probably because the last three seasons the champion has racked up so much and I’ve forgotten that this wasn’t always the case this decade. Good post.
 

peridigm

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Per a graphic for the PL winners of the last decade I got to thinking about the managers.

2010 Chelsea Ancelotti
2011 United SAF
2012 City Mancini
2013 United SAF
2014 City Pelligrini
2015 Chelsea Jose
2016 Leicester Ranieri
2017 Chelsea Conte
2018 City Pep
2019 City Pep
 
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luisnani86

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So, basically, you're telling us that everybody else caught up with Fergies point of view - score more then your opposition of the day.

And yet, here we are, spunking 80 milions on a centerback.

It's why Sir Alex was the greatest, he adapted quickly and he saw whats needed to win the title.

Remember our last title? feck me, we we're behind in almost every game, yet we piled on the pressure and eventually won the game. Ugly games, 3-2s and 4-3s...but a win after win.

Wonder if the tide to defending will change back.
Certainly not with Klopp and Pep around.
Fergie spent on defence; he spent just shy of £11m in 98 on Stam and £30m (a British record) on Rio - he was of course correct to do so, but adjusting for inflation Stam would be similar money to Maguire and Rio probably near £100m.
This isn't at all to suggest it was poor spending but we didn't comparatively spend that much money on attackers in the 98-03 era (Yorke aside)
 

OohAahMartial

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Per a graphic for the PL winners of the last decade I got to thinking about the managers.

2010 Chelsea Ancelotti
2011 United SAF
2012 City Mancini
2013 United SAF
2014 City Pelligrini
2015 Chelsea Jose
2016 Leicester Ranieri
2017 Chelsea Conte
2018 City Pep
2019 City Pep
What is striking about that is that City and Chelsea both managed to win titles under 3 different managers, whereas only SAF did with us. The structure behind the club is more important than each coach, and where we must improve. No point in keep on changing manager until we've fixed this.
 

RooSSaili

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I've been looking at some numbers over the last two decades of the Premier League, to see what has changed in what it takes to win the league/finish in top 4.

Attack


  • The average PL winning team between 99/00 to 08/09 scored : 77.7 goals.
  • The average PL winning team between 09/10 to 18/19 scored : 88.9 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 99/00 to 08/09 scored : 62.3 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 09/10 to 18/19 scored: 70.7 goals.
Defence


  • The average PL winning team between 99/00 to 08/09 conceded : 28.2 goals.
  • The average PL winning team between 09/10 to 18/19 conceded : 32.9 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 99/00 to 08/09 conceded : 37.7 goals.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 09/10 to 18/19 conceded: 40 goals.
Points

  • The average PL winning team between 99/00 to 08/09 gained : 88.3 points.
  • The average PL winning team between 09/10 to 18/19 gained : 88.9 points.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 99/00 to 08/09 gained : 67.7 points.
  • The average 4th place trophy winner between 09/10 to 18/19 gained: 71.7 points.

If anyone is interested in a similar thread, I made one earlier in the year which tried to show how attacking has a more profound effect on your league position than defending : https://www.redcafe.net/threads/data-why-scoring-goals-is-more-important-than-conceding-less.447862/
Good stuff
 

noodlehair

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The league is less competitive now in terms of the gap between the good teams and the majority of not so good teams. I think the stats back it up...more points needed to win or be near the top because less points are dropped to the lesser sides.

I'm also not sure if attacking football and players has gotten better or if the defending has gotten worse...well I'm 100% certain the defending has gotten worse, but it could be both. The number of extremely good forward players in the league vastly outnumbers the amount of extremely good defenders now. Probably had a more even split 10 years ago...but you had the likes of Rooney, Ronaldo, Tevez, Berbatov, Drogba, Lampard, Gerrard, Torres, Van Persie, etc...that's comparable to what's about in the PL now at the very least.
 

MrMarcello

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Fergie spent on defence; he spent just shy of £11m in 98 on Stam and £30m (a British record) on Rio - he was of course correct to do so, but adjusting for inflation Stam would be similar money to Maguire and Rio probably near £100m.
This isn't at all to suggest it was poor spending but we didn't comparatively spend that much money on attackers in the 98-03 era (Yorke aside)
SAF dropped £39.1m on Forlan, Ruud and Yorke during this period. Ruud would be a £75m+ purchase in today's market.

He also blew the English transfer record away in 2001 signing Veron for £28.1m, probably over £100m today.
 

manc4red

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Really interesting stats. Thanks for sharing

I think we need to break off like the last 3-4 yrs as well. The post Pep era as the points required to win the prem with him or Klopp there has got to be over 90 pts.

I always wondered how crucial it is to have a winning record vs the other big 6 teams as well if those stats exist
 

DickDastardly

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Fergie spent on defence; he spent just shy of £11m in 98 on Stam and £30m (a British record) on Rio - he was of course correct to do so, but adjusting for inflation Stam would be similar money to Maguire and Rio probably near £100m.
This isn't at all to suggest it was poor spending but we didn't comparatively spend that much money on attackers in the 98-03 era (Yorke aside)
I wasn't saying he NEVER spent od defense, i'm saying he saw the tide shifting towards scoring goals....and acted accordingly.

We lost the title on goal difference, he made sure that didn't happen the next season.

How?

He brought Robin Van Persie and Shinji Kagawa. We won the title by outscoring everybody....our defense was a shambles, we regulary conceded 2 or more goals per game, but we still pounded on the pressure.
 

luisnani86

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SAF dropped £39.1m on Forlan, Ruud and Yorke during this period. Ruud would be a £75m+ purchase in today's market.

He also blew the English transfer record away in 2001 signing Veron for £28.1m, probably over £100m today.
True - and I'll admit I didn't take into account Ruud into the spending (what a signing that was though) - it just wasn't as if he marginalised defensive spending to go all gung-ho on attackers as other posters may have been suggesting. Not counting Veron in attacking spending
 

Fox_Chrys

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The EPL has moved from lots of individual's shining to more of a team effort.

Take Liverpool front 3 for example, as a unit they outstanding, but how often do we see worldies been scored now.

The goals from Beckham, Gerrard, Lampard, Beardsley, Le Tissier and co seem in the distant past now.
 

Nick7

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The EPL has moved from lots of individual's shining to more of a team effort.

Take Liverpool front 3 for example, as a unit they outstanding, but how often do we see worldies been scored now.

The goals from Beckham, Gerrard, Lampard, Beardsley, Le Tissier and co seem in the distant past now.
My question there is, is that because defending is worse now? Or is that just a more efficient way of attacking? World class strikes are harder to score than working a ball into an area closer to the goal. Why take a shot from 25, 30 yards out when you can play the ball through the space left open by lesser defenders for another player with a better chance to score.
 

montpelier

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Goals are easier to score. Defending is harder.

VAR might have altered that. Defences can trust offside more now. And push up more, attackers kept away from goal are gonna be less dangerous.
 

Vidyoyo

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The EPL has moved from lots of individual's shining to more of a team effort.

Take Liverpool front 3 for example, as a unit they outstanding, but how often do we see worldies been scored now.

The goals from Beckham, Gerrard, Lampard, Beardsley, Le Tissier and co seem in the distant past now.
Think somebody on here once argued that it's because statistically you're much less likely to score from long range, hence players are instructed not to shoot.
 

Skills

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So basically attacks have gotten better and defences have gotten worse.
I think it's the case that teams have realised that attack is much more important than defence. Hence they've sacrificed defensive efficiency, for more attacking prowess. Hence the adoption of a high defensive lines, attacking full backs and long gone are the days of deep flat back 4s.

Defence is still important (thus you can't get away with a poor defence) but a great attack coupled with an average defence will take you much further, than than a great defence with an average attack.
 

Pexbo

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So, basically, you're telling us that everybody else caught up with Fergies point of view - score more then your opposition of the day.

And yet, here we are, spunking 80 milions on a centerback.

It's why Sir Alex was the greatest, he adapted quickly and he saw whats needed to win the title.

Remember our last title? feck me, we we're behind in almost every game, yet we piled on the pressure and eventually won the game. Ugly games, 3-2s and 4-3s...but a win after win.

Wonder if the tide to defending will change back.
Certainly not with Klopp and Pep around.
Is scoring more than your opposition of the day any different to conceding less than your opposition of the day? In which case having a good defence is essential, especially as a good defence breeds confidence in the players ahead of it.
 

baskinginthesun

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The league is less competitive now in terms of the gap between the good teams and the majority of not so good teams. I think the stats back it up...more points needed to win or be near the top because less points are dropped to the lesser sides.

I'm also not sure if attacking football and players has gotten better or if the defending has gotten worse...well I'm 100% certain the defending has gotten worse, but it could be both. The number of extremely good forward players in the league vastly outnumbers the amount of extremely good defenders now. Probably had a more even split 10 years ago...but you had the likes of Rooney, Ronaldo, Tevez, Berbatov, Drogba, Lampard, Gerrard, Torres, Van Persie, etc...that's comparable to what's about in the PL now at the very least.
Or it could be that more and more teams are playing out from the back. With the high press these days, it might be a case of balls are won higher up the pitch and more goalscoring opportunities are available. Not sure if this represents a bad defense and more of a case of focusing on attacking football. But, it's a good conversation either way.