Data : Why Scoring Goals is more important than Conceding Less

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Disclaimer - I am not a statistician. Some nerd on here would do most likely do a much better job than my attempt.

Outside of the obvious reason that you need to score a goal to win a game, and winning a game gives you three points which is worth more than 0 or 1 points.

This data is from seasons 12/13 through to seasons 18/19:

h9rdg19.png


All I've done is plot the number of goals scored (blue) and goals conceded (orange) on the y-axis vs the the number of points a team gained over the course of a season on the x-axis. Then using my friend excel I found the R2 of each of those data-sets.

For the entire PL (between 12/13 and 18/19) the data indicates
  • a stronger correlation between goals scored and points scored
  • than between goals conceded and points scored.
  • The difference between the R2s is even bigger if you look at the data for the Top 7 only (i.e. Champions League contenders/pretenders).

hGSKk25.png


Now what I've done here is I've normalised the number of points scored/goals scored/goals conceded in each season. I thought this would account for seasons where points totals are lower, and compare goal scored/conceded with the position you will finish.

Basically for each season the team that scored the most points is assigned 1, the team conceding the least is assigned 1 and the team that scored the most goals is assigned 1. Then Points/GF/GA just become ratio.

I.e. 1st place got 100 points = 1. Another team got 80 points = 0.8 etc. Top scoring team scored 100 goals = 1. Another team got 80 goals = 0.8

Long story short - the trend seams to be the same.
  • a stronger correlation between goals scored and how high you will finish
  • weaker correlation between goals conceded and how high you will finish
  • Holds true for the top 7 too.
Anyways, re-iterating my disclaimer at the top. I am not a statistician, feel free to critique my poor stat work.
 
Look at Leicester. They won by out scoring everyone. Even Uniteds defence was pretty good at the early stages of Ole's reign. Because they attacked like crazy. Better the attack the better the defence will be.
 
AaronRedDevil said:
Look at Leicester. They won by out scoring everyone. Even Uniteds defence was pretty good at the early stages of Ole's reign. Because they attacked like crazy. Better the attack the better the defence will be.
Click to expand...
Tottenham and City scored more than Leicester that season. Spurs even had the best goal difference and finished 3rd.
 
"I am a firm believer that if you score one goal, the other team has to score two to win"

By Howard Wilkinson.
 
I wanted to score this excellent piece of analysis 10/10, but unfortunately had to deduct 5 marks because of the 'less' in the thread title.

Good effort, though. Very interesting.

And nice graphs. I like the graphs.
 
It would be interesting if someone did this when it was two points for a win. I imagine the correlations would be much closer between scoring and conceding.
 
Hmm. So the solution to finishing higher is to concentrate more on scoring goals than conceding them?
 
Snow said:
Tottenham and City scored more than Leicester that season. Spurs even had the best goal difference and finished 3rd.
Click to expand...

Yup. Us and Spurs had conceded the least goals that season and we finished 5th.

I don't think you can try and fit individual cases to data like this though. The point of this is to just highlight a general trend.
 
I like your analysis but it would be cool if you changed your pool of data, to have a bit of perspective :

1) Could you do the same thing in another league... Let's say La Liga. For example this year I feel like defensive records are better than ever while goalscoring (besides Barça) was absolutely dreadfull. Some teams like Getafe or Valencia might end up in UCL while not scoring better than half the team in the bottom 8 or so.

2) Could you do the same in a league when there was 2pts win ?

Also not quite the same, but how does that work for relegation. You did top 7, but I would like to see, let's say for bottom 5.

It might take you hell of a time to do it anyway :lol:
 
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LiquidSnake said:
I like your analysis but it would be cool if you changed your pool of data, to have a bit of perspective :

1) Could you do the same thing in another league... Let's say La Liga. For example this year I feel like defensive records are better than ever while goalscoring (besides Barça) was absolutely dreadfull. Some teams like Getafe or Valencia might end up in UCL while not scoring better than half the team in the bottom 8 or so.

2) Could you do the same in a league when there was 2pts win ?

Also not quite the same, but how does that work for relegation. You did top 7, but I would like to see, let's say for bottom 5.

It might take you hell of a time to do it anyway :lol:
Click to expand...

I have that data I just didn't bother posting it. It's all a mess for the relegation fodder, I'll post it tonight.
 
MalBot said:
Hmm. So the solution to finishing higher is to concentrate more on scoring goals than conceding them?
Click to expand...
I'd imagine Bournemouth are a good source for that.

When they lose, they lose by a lot of goals. When they win, they score plenty. Rarely do they get a 1-0.

Compare them to say Brighton who have concentrated on trying to achieve 1-0's and they come out on top.
 
I think the adage that defence wins titles is outdated.
 
Adisa said:
I think the adage that defence wins titles is outdated.
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Yeah, esp for champions League. Look at the overall scorelines for the semis and even the quarters. It's been all about scoring goals
And has been for the last few seasons too

I reckon inter under Jose was the last time defending meant more than attacking (might be wrong as I reckon Chelsea also did this but they also had loads of luck haha)
 
Who would have thought it scoring more and conceding less gets you more points.
 
I wonder how this data would stack up if you assumed each team started with a one goal lead. Would going all out for additional goals be more important than shutting up shop to avoid conceding?
 
Treble said:
Defences win you points, attacks win you titles.
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Not quite true, look at our foes Liverpool the signing of One Defender and goalkeeper elevated that team. Ferguson always said attacks win you games defences win you titles.
 
Dutsey said:
Not quite true, look at our foes Liverpool the signing of One Defender and goalkeeper elevated that team. Ferguson always said attacks win you games defences win you titles.
Click to expand...

I think that was just to fool his rivals into investing in their defenses, while he constantly stacked his attacks and won title after title. His answer to winning the title in his last season was to buy RVP, and he stuck with a defense which cost him a title by conceding 4 against Everton and 6 against City.
 
Dutsey said:
Not quite true, look at our foes Liverpool the signing of One Defender and goalkeeper elevated that team. Ferguson always said attacks win you games defences win you titles.
Click to expand...

Well, City's attack trumped Liverpool's defence, even though only marginally. City lost 4 games and Liverpool only 1, but City's quality in attack secured them more wins and points. Fergie might have been right back then but probably not now.
 
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