England - Euro 2021 Discussion | FA chairman: Southgate to be offered new contract until Euro 2024

[Classical Mechanic]

Denmark scored after an awful defensive mistake, then couldn't further capitalize on their lead even when we were playing awful throughout the first half. We dominated them second half, got two goals and saw the game out.

Portugal was evenly matched, we got the first goal through a moment of individual class and then saw the game out relatively easy, they just weren't good enough. The narrative that we've been lucky to get to where we are right now is simply not accurate.

We beat you twice at the World Cup and finished higher so to say that it's less likely to yield success is also based on nothing, England have proven as much as us in that respect = nothing.

If you're talking about 'lucky' in football terms then it applies to Belgium in this tournament.

http://www.soccer-blogger.com/2021/...ls-em-danmark-1-2-diables-rouges-match-stats/

26 shots to 6 and an xg of 2.24 - 0.79.

http://www.soccer-blogger.com/2021/...ected-goals-diables-rouges-selecao-shots-map/

23 shots to 6 and an xG of 1.75 - 0.25

In these games Belgium have been relying on the opposition to be profligate with numerous chances whilst capitalising on very limited chances of their own. It isn't a recipe for sustained success. Of course you can win an international tournament this way given how few games there are but I don't know how you can frame it as not requiring a big slice of luck, specifically referring to the opposition performing badly with their chances.

It wouldn't surprise me if Italy beat Belgium handily in their match. People would probably be surprised by it but Belgium have been flirting with such a scenario already.

Again, being good defensively does not make you a defensive team. 11 goals in 4 games...

Why don't you try reading the articles. France do set up defensiely under Deschamps. People have been moaning about it for years and on this forum in this tournament. You're welcome to your alternative reality.

 

[RobinLFC]

If you're talking about 'lucky' in football terms then it applies to Belgium in this tournament.

http://www.soccer-blogger.com/2021/...ls-em-danmark-1-2-diables-rouges-match-stats/

26 shots to 6 and an xg of 2.24 - 0.79.

http://www.soccer-blogger.com/2021/...ected-goals-diables-rouges-selecao-shots-map/

23 shots to 6 and an xG of 1.75 - 0.25

In these games Belgium have been relying on the opposition to be profligate with numerous chances whilst capitalising on very limited chances of their own. It isn't a recipe for sustained success. Of course you can win an international tournament this way given how few games there are but I don't know how you can frame it as not requiring a big slice of luck, specifically referring to the opposition performing badly with their chances.

It wouldn't surprise me if Italy beat Belgium handily in their match. People would probably be surprised by it but Belgium have been flirting with such a scenario already.

xG is a flawed stat that usually tells you nothing, so let's just close the argument here and now because we won't agree on anything.

 

[Kopral Jono]

This could be just me misreading the room, but why do I get the impression that for many England fans last night matters so much that going all the way is a mere bonus at this point?

 

[Infra-red]

This could be just me misreading the room, but why do I get the impression that for many England fans last night matters so much that going all the way is a mere bonus at this point?

I wouldn't go that far, but it was nice to get that particular monkey off our backs. Time to push on now, though.

Lose to Ukraine and "Gareth OUTgate" will be trending on Twitter.

 

[justsomebloke]

Before the tournament: yes, semis would be great looking at the last 30 years of England at big tournaments.
During the tournament if your way to the final is Colombia-Sweden-Croatia: definitely entitled to be dissatisfied or at least very disappointed that you didn't make it.

This tournament as well: before you'd say depending on circumstances a QF or semis exit wouldn't be the worst, but right now I'd be extremely dissatisfied as an England fan if they don't make it to the final.

You haven't considered the alternative course of action of instead being extremely pleased if they make it to the final?

 

[P-Nut]

Think we'll make a couple changes for the Ukraine game.

Expect one of Rice or Phillips to be rested, likely Phillips for Bellingham/Henderson as Rice is the more defensive.

Saka for Grealish and then Trippier for an attacker. Could be Mount, Sancho or Rashford you'd expect.

 

[romufc]

Who says that France plays great attacking football? They don't, just like England they can produce it if they want / are allowed to, but are restricted by their manager's cautious approach. Doubt the French cared when they won the WC, just like no Englishman would care if you win the EC, but that doesn't make it less true.

There was a few posters, I cannot find the posts now. It's difficult to get a team to play attacking football with the limited time they have.

I wouldn't care if we won every game 1-0 and won the Euros.

 

[justsomebloke]

Grealish has to start after last night. I mean, we became a different side after he came on. Also expecting one of Rice and Phillips to make way for Mount too - most likely Phillips.

This.

But there's also a question whether to continue with 3 at the back against Ukraine. If not, then there's room for Grealish and Saka.

 

[FootballHQ]

There is more to life than xG.

 

[NasirTimothy]

This could be just me misreading the room, but why do I get the impression that for many England fans last night matters so much that going all the way is a mere bonus at this point?

I get that impression and it’s very dangerous. As is the notion that England should easily make it to the final now. I’d still wager that they won’t.

 

[RobinLFC]

You haven't considered the alternative course of action of instead being extremely pleased if they make it to the final?

Well of course, and everyone should rightfully be over the moon with that!

You can simultaneously be extremely happy with the outcome and recognize that it wasn't very pretty though (e.g. my feeling with Belgium against Portugal). You're just immediately the negative one if you even tried to speak it into existence that "we might need to be a bit better against Italy"

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

This could be just me misreading the room, but why do I get the impression that for many England fans last night matters so much that going all the way is a mere bonus at this point?

Given the choice win the tournament and not play Germany. Or beat Germany but not win the tournament? I don't know any England fan that wouldn't pick the first option.

Since the odds are still against England winning the whole thing we might as well just enjoy the moment.

 

[Zlatan 7]

Given the choice win the tournament and not play Germany. Or beat Germany but not win the tournament? I don't know any England fan that wouldn't pick the first option.

Since the odds are still against England winning the whole thing we might as well just enjoy the moment.

Odds are against? Aint you favourites?

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Given the choice win the tournament and not play Germany. Or beat Germany but not win the tournament? I don't know any England fan that wouldn't pick the first option.

Since the odds are still against England winning the whole thing we might as well just enjoy the moment.

its a ridiculous take from the poster.

nothing wrong with enjoying a win. Especially a long term rival, whom we keep losing to in knockout games! It would be absurd not to celebrate.

onto The next game.

 

[justsomebloke]

I agree that we disagree, as I said, there is room for differing opinions.

"That is absolutely beyond reason. You deserve to be unhappy and disappointed - you're setting yourself up for it."

That's a measured and reasonable summation? Really?

Fair enough if that's what you felt initially but then I told you I'm a neutral and you double down on that? As a neutral, why would I be disappointed if someone doesn't win the tournament?

Let's England lose in the SF, I will think "damn, that was a great opportunity to get to the final. Germans were knocked out. England didn't need to play Italy, France, Belgium, Portugal, Netherlands, Spain... it's a missed opportunity that may not present itself again in years"... This was exactly what I thought in the WC. England avoided any of the real big boys and it was a massively missed opportunity. But I wasn't "unhappy" or "disappointed".

Well, don't take it too personally. I'm trying to establish a general point here. The point in your original post was that it was a matter of opinion whether the WC semi final was really worth being satisfied about. And yeah, I think it most certainly is a measured and reasonable summation that if you (well, not just you specifically, but anyone) are dissatisfied after making it to the WC final, then you deserve to be unhappy and disappointed, because you have needlessly brought that upon yourself by choosing to have expectations with no basis in reality. You'd be unhappy over something England had managed only twice before in the history of football. That is beyond reason.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Odds are against? Aint you favourites?

If England are favourites, it’s only because the other side of the draw has Spain, Italy and Belgium vying to get to the final - thus splitting the odds.

if, and a big if we did get to the final it would be extremely questionable for England to be favourites.

 

[Bilbo]

This could be just me misreading the room, but why do I get the impression that for many England fans last night matters so much that going all the way is a mere bonus at this point?

Deep down we all always believe that Germany will find a way to win, so in many respects they are the last opponent we ever want in a knockout game Getting past them is huge, and will give this team so much belief

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I get that impression and it’s very dangerous. As is the notion that England should easily make it to the final now. I’d still wager that they won’t.

'Dangerous' sounds a bit over the top. The way some fans may think has no bearing on how the team prepares or on the reuslt of the next game. One of the first things that Southgate said after the game was 'it's a great win but means nothing if we lose the next game'.

I think this tournament has already been a success. We've come here with the 3rd youngest squad, the least experienced squad by caps (I think), we won the group easily and we beat a major nation in the knockouts, against the team that had caused our most painful defeats historically to boot. That's a major thing for the psychology of our national team, like beating Colombia on penalties at the last World Cup. My personal opinion is that we're building for Euro 2024 and World Cup 2026 here when our young talented generation hit their peak so anything from here on out is a bonus.

 

[Random Task]

This.

But there's also a question whether to continue with 3 at the back against Ukraine. If not, then there's room for Grealish and Saka.

Fair question.

Southgate and co. have clearly been working on this formation behind the scenes, and it was highly effective against the Germans, so that's probably a yes. Maguire seemed to be very comfortable in a back three, too, dominant even.

 

[Kopral Jono]

I wouldn't go that far, but it was nice to get that particular monkey off our backs. Time to push on now, though.

Lose to Ukraine and "Gareth OUTgate" will be trending on Twitter.

To be honest I didn't realise it's such a big monkey until yesterday. In any case I hope England do well, this group of players is so likeable it's almost petty not wanting them to do well if you call yourself a fan of an English club regardless of your background.

its a ridiculous take from the poster.

nothing wrong with enjoying a win. Especially a long term rival, whom we keep losing to in knockout games! It would be absurd not to celebrate.

onto The next game.

I don't think it's a ridiculous take. I just didn't think beating Germany is a much bigger monkey in the back situation than I thought it was.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I don't think it's a ridiculous take. I just didn't think beating Germany is a much bigger monkey in the back situation than I thought it was.

Are you English?

 

[Zlatan 7]

If England are favourites, it’s only because the other side of the draw has Spain, Italy and Belgium vying to get to the final - thus splitting the odds.

if, and a big if we did get to the final it would be extremely questionable for England to be favourites.

From where I am I find it really hard to bet against England from here.

I know nerves and not jumping the gun play a big part if you are English in questioning whether you’re favourites and the hangovers from past tournament disasters goes against the thought of winning it but...

you’ve hardly exerted yourselves yet, the semi and final will be at Wembley with close to full house I expect, there is no real danger left in the tournament, Italy look good but haven’t really been tested yet, Belgium I feel have been lucky to progress and rely on lukaku and kdb too much and their defence doesn’t look solid at all, spain are a bit meh even though they did look to be improving in the last game, I think the most danger comes from the smaller nations but ones which you should really be beating. I honestly think England are the strongest team left in and should be winning it.

 

[Kopral Jono]

Are you English?

No, but I used to live in London and actually own a property there.

 

[Offside]

Forgot that England beat Germany at Euro 2000.

 

[Random Task]

This could be just me misreading the room, but why do I get the impression that for many England fans last night matters so much that going all the way is a mere bonus at this point?

I don't know if you were reading the forum pre the Germany game, but it was practically unanimous in its view that England were going out last night one way or another. It was basically our cup final. But that's all changed now that we've suddenly become favourites to reach the final. The pressure on the team has increased ten-fold and expectations are through the roof. Failure to reach the final will be seen as yet another disappointment.

 

[Highfather_24]

I wouldn't care if we won every game 1-0 and won the Euros.

Would you care if you played tumescent football and still got knocked out in the quarters though?

Negative football is only tolerated with brilliant results. Its usually defended against a strawman of "pretty football but no results". As if those are the only two options.

But when you have the kind of attacking and midfield talent England has, there is no excuse for not playing attacking football. Attacking football + good win % should be the aim. If West Ham is playing defensive football its okay, but when peak Bayern are told to play Moyesball , there will be a problem. England are not underdogs, and shouldnt play underdog football.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

From where I am I find it really hard to bet against England from here.

I know nerves and not jumping the gun play a big part if you are English in questioning whether you’re favourites and the hangovers from past tournament disasters goes against the thought of winning it but...

you’ve hardly exerted yourselves yet, the semi and final will be at Wembley with close to full house I expect, there is no real danger left in the tournament, Italy look good but haven’t really been tested yet, Belgium I feel have been lucky to progress and rely on lukaku and kdb too much and their defence doesn’t look solid at all, spain are a bit meh even though they did look to be improving in the last game, I think the most danger comes from the smaller nations but ones which you should really be beating. I honestly think England are the strongest team left in and should be winning it.

it was more a question of the technicality of the odds. Belgium, Spain and Italy are all far more likely to get knocked out before the final that England are, ergo why England would be favourites at thus stage. That, I believe would change if England made the final

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Odds are against? Aint you favourites?

Not really no. Three games to play eight teams still in it and three I would pick as more likely winners than England.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

No, but I used to live in London and actually own a property there.

It's not just beating Germany. A big thing for England has us not being able to beat the major nations in knockout games. When we drew Germany there was a massive sense of trepidation as they're the side that beat us in two major semi-finals in the 90s and a team that we have a terrible record against since 66. For most English people we have little faith in our capability to beat Germany when it matters. Winning a knockout game and against them is really big for us.

Forgot that England beat Germany at Euro 2000.

Beat Germany and lose against Romania to not get out of the group. Classic England.

 

[Zlatan 7]

it was more a question of the technicality of the odds. Belgium, Spain and Italy are all far more likely to get knocked out before the final that England are, ergo why England would be favourites at thus stage. That, I believe would change if England made the final

Ah ok, I still think England will be favourites in the final at Wembley no matter who they face now we’ve seen the teams that are left in. I get what you mean about the side of the draw though.

 

[Random Task]

Ah ok, I still think England will be favourites in the final at Wembley no matter who they face now we’ve seen the teams that are left in. I get what you mean about the side of the draw though.

Surely Belgium are favourites to win the thing?

 

[justsomebloke]

Before the tournament: yes, semis would be great looking at the last 30 years of England at big tournaments.
During the tournament if your way to the final is Colombia-Sweden-Croatia: definitely entitled to be dissatisfied or at least very disappointed that you didn't make it.

This tournament as well: before you'd say depending on circumstances a QF or semis exit wouldn't be the worst, but right now I'd be extremely dissatisfied as an England fan if they don't make it to the final.

Okay. I suppose what I'm getting at here is the angle you're coming at it from. A lot of people talk as if it was a reasonable baseline expectation that England win big international tournaments, or at least advance until they encounter an obviously superior team. If that doesn't happen, then it's cause for a serious grievance and great disappointment.

Firstly, this stands in obvious contradiction to the fact that throughout the history of big international tournaments, England has only exceptionally and very rarely managed to get into the top 4. It is not an anomaly that England went out to a team like Croatia, though they certainly must be considered to be a team they had a realistic chance of beating. In other words; the baseline expectation is simply unrealistic.

Secondly, by approaching it in that way, you create a situation where there's really only the possibility of becoming a bit less disappointed than you've been in other tournaments.

Thirdly, given all of this and how this dominates the general mood around the team in the media and among people, is it any wonder that England sides generally seem constrained by an excessive fear of failure?

The overall result of this, for the individual fan in and in terms of general mood, is that you preset yourselves for disappointment. You leave yourselves no other possibility. The most that could be hoped for is a grudging and temporary suspension of hostility. Where's the joy in that? And what purpose does it serve? Just look at this thread, for christ's sake. You just beat Germany in a knockout game for the first time in 55 years, while from the general mood of the comments you'd think you just went out 0-1 to Finland.

 

[Zlatan 7]

Just looked and England are faves with the bookies at 2/1. Spain 3/1 and Italy 4/1, Belgium 6.5/1 or there abouts

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Just looked and England are faves with the bookies at 2/1. Spain 3/1 and Italy 4/1 or there abouts

What about the bookies in Spain and Italy?

 

[Zlatan 7]

Surely Belgium are favourites to win the thing?

See above post

 

[Zlatan 7]

What about the bookies in Spain and Italy?

I don’t know how to check that, would be intersting though

 

[justsomebloke]

Fair question.

Southgate and co. have clearly been working on this formation behind the scenes, and it was highly effective against the Germans, so that's probably a yes. Maguire seemed to be very comfortable in a back three, too, dominant even.

I agree, it seems most likely. But compared to the Germany game, they should have the ball more, and there should be more room for one of the central midfielders to roam. Which should I guess favor Grealish and Mount over Saka and Phillips.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

@RobinLFC

Who are the bookie favourites in Belgium?

 

[Zlatan 7]

@giorno who are the bookies favourites in Spain/ Italy?

 

[sewey89]

How can people be surprised that England are the bookies favourites?

Only one of Spain/Belgium/Italy can get to the final. I'd say most would recognise that those 3 alongside England are the 4 strongest sides left in the tournament.

So it stands to reason that England are the favourites due to the draw and the fact that the semis/final are at Wembley