Doom-mongering much
European Energy Crisis
- Thread starter Beans
- Start date
I’m worried people will be unprepared.
This one is more positive, though the only data they give is 80% storage capacity and 20% expected to remain by March, nor does it give a winter price:
European countries can withstand Russia’s gas cuts this winter as supply headaches may have been “successfully solved”, according to analysis by a leading US bank.
“This is the puzzle Europe has successfully solved for the past year, with a combination of gas demand destruction within Europe and across [liquified natural gas] buyers elsewhere in the world, resulting in above-average inventory builds.”
Goldman said on Tuesday it expected European wholesale natural gas prices to fall from about €215 (£186) a megawatt hour to below €100 a MWh by the end of the first quarter of next year, assuming typical winter weather conditions. That is well below the €213 previously predicted.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia
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Will & Kate have aged terribly.
So the two pipelines through the East Sea were basically sabotaged, so there is no way we will get our gas from Russia anytime soon.
Who is we? I only ask as I don’t believe the UK relies on Russia unlike the likes of France, Germany etc
In some sense, we is the rest of the world. It's not like the UK will get their gas cheaper now.
No one is getting it cheaper but the UK doesnt need Russia for gas whilst other European countries are utterly dependent.
It's a basic game of demand and supply at the end. UK will get now even more competition on the buyers' side.
Sure it’s negative for everyone but as I said if Russia turned off the gas so to speak the UK would be fine whilst the other more reliant nations in the EU would be in turmoil.
How so? The supply lines for UK and EU are similar right now... given the UK does not have significant storage systems it might even come off worse than the EU.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/58888451
In 2021 the UK imported 4% of its oil and gas from Russia. Since June this year it’s imported 0% and continues to do so.
Yes it would be affected by price rises but ultimately it does not rely on Russia for anything unlike the likes of Germany, Italy and to a lesser degree France. They are totally dependent unfortunately.
Yep all true, but why is the cost of gas rising now in the UK?
If Germany, France, Italy don't get it from Russia they will be getting it from somewhere else. All the LNG Terminals in the EU will Import much more gas now. Germany will have the first LNG terminal in Q1, at least one more will bd built. Msny others will run on higher capacity than previously. Inevitably the UK will pay more as well.
So the UK is definitely indirectly dependent on cheap Russian gas.
That’s not really how supply and demand works though is it?
You look at where all the other countries were getting their Gas from 8 months ago and then ask yourself where they are getting it from now. The answer is the same place the UK get their gas from and that’s only going to get worse now.
I have said costs will go up, that is obvious, but the point is the UK doesn’t need Russian gas and has actually done very well to shake it over the years.
It will have plenty of trade deals with its suppliers already in place and whilst prices will fluctuate those deals will be honoured whilst others scramble around for the means and infrastructure to obtain it elsewhere.
UK has little gas storage facilities, it's stored in the EU.
In June 2017, Centrica announced the closure of the Rough gas storage site on the grounds that it was uneconomical and had reached the end of its design life.[4]
In May 2022, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kwasi Kwarteng, began talks with the site's owners with a view to reopening the site to help ease the ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom.[6] In June 2022, owners Centrica submitted an application to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the licencing authority for the UK Government, to reopen the facility.[7] Approval was granted in July.[8] Subsequently, Centrica indicated that they are working hard to restore storage operations at Rough which would depend on securing subsidies from the British government. Centrica was aiming to have some capacity available for the winter of 2022/23 against an overall plan to increase storage capacity gradually over time.[9]
But as others have said all countries are changing where they buy the gas thus they are buying it from where the UK buys it and many other places where they don't.
So far this year the energy crisis has cost me €50 (price increase in fuel for the car which has now reduced considerably)
I just received the result of the yearly calculation for electricity usage versus payments made.........I am 35€ in credit!
Don't think that will ever happen again.
Don't think that will ever happen again.
Do you pay in advance, or something?
I pay a set amount per month and then at the end of every year depending on actual usage I'll either pay a bit more or get a bit back.
Ah, I see. Any reason not to pay after you've used it on a monthly basis?
Pretty sure I have never been offered that option, but that way if available might subject me to changing prices. This way I have a fixed kwH price for a year at least.
Just hoping this Nord Stream pipe wasn't sabotaged by any NATO member or they will escalate this and we will be close to a nuclear war than ever, Putin is losing and any excuse to use nukes will be on the table.
Inflation now at 10% in Germany.
How'd you manage to keep it that low?
Slightly less incompetent leader here. Slightly. Also the opposition and coalition partners actually try harder to work together unlike in UK.
Only slightly?
Last month we hit 13,6% inflation here in The Netherlands. In Germany it was 8,8% over the same period and the UK managed 9,8%. It's also hilarious how we pay a lot more for gas than our neighbours even though we supply it from Groningen (though we're working on shutting that down due to it causing earthquakes).
A few taxes were reduced.
It's official we will get a price cap on gas and electricity. At the end it was the only sensible solution. They acted like naked plonkers dancing around a fire instead to actually fight it with water.
The problem is that this solution will not entice people to save energy. I have turned on the heating on Monday with a target temperature of 25°C.
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No need to gloat.
These changes came out if nowhere. It's a bizarre turn of events. Again.
These changes came out if nowhere. It's a bizarre turn of events. Again.
If there’s some expensive German import you’ve been thinking about getting, probably best to get it now, prices will surely rise.
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The changes were inevitable, that’s his point. Regardless of whether they were ultimately triggered by something unexpected, the gas was not going to flow either way.
I know people don’t like to hear bad news, but the sooner people prepare the better.
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Feck me. Seriously? Do you walk round your house naked?
Homo economicus
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Has anyone put the heating on yet? Did it on Wednesday night for 2 hours. It cost me £3.50, i.e. almost double what it used to cost me to heat it for at least 5/6 hours.
On this, if I were to put my thermostat at say 20 degrees rather than 24, would the radiators still get warm and would I feel any impact? Aware that this comes across as a very stupid question but I have always just turned it up to say 24/25 degrees for the heating to be 'on' and then turned it off once the house is warm enough.
It depends on your heating system but yeah, 20C should definitely trigger your heaters to come on. Without them the internal temperature of your house will get closer and closer to the external temperature.
20C always seems like a reasonable internal temperature to me. Although I know opinions on this vary. I’d find 25C borderline unpleasant. Especially at night.
The thing is I crank it on to say 24/25 but the house never actually reaches that temperature, which I guess then means that it doesn't need to be whacked up so high and if it was up to say 20 then the heat will still come on...
Yeah, it will definitely come on. If your thermostats are working properly they’ll turn the heating on and off for you. That’s basically their job!