Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Pagh Wraith

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I'm on Stourbridge away to Eastleigh with a one goal handicap start in the FA Cup replay tonight. Motivation should be high for both as the winner will host Crewe Alexandra in front of the BT Sport cameras. But Eastleigh are without a host of players and are particularly short in defense whereas Stourbridge have one of their defenders back who missed the first leg which was an open affair. The other thing is that Eastleigh are only five points behind a post-season spot with a game in hand and are playing two of the top 6 in the next eight days so they might prioritise their next two league fixtures.
 

André Dominguez

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Anyone else stuck money on Flamengo for Saturday? They have a superior team than River and their odd is dropping.
 

Spiersey

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Anyone else stuck money on Flamengo for Saturday? They have a superior team than River and their odd is dropping.
Flamengo are better player for player but Gallardo is an excellent manager, they'll be set up really well. I am pretty sure he will be off to Europe after this tie, possibly to Barca. Would make a lot of sense as an appointment. Prices look fair to me, Flamengo maybe 2.0 to win at a push.
 

André Dominguez

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  • Lyon - Anadolu:[FAIL] Balanced game, though, but Anadolu odd didn't rised enough.
  • Milano - Maccabi Tel Aviv: [Win] The odds inverted and before the match Milano suddenly had a better odd. Closed at the end of 2Q, but small profit margin.
  • Galatasaray - Malaga:[WIN X2] This was a balanced match and managed to close at 1Q. Then I picked half of the profit and put it on Galatasaray. Galatasaray recoverd and closed my position again at the end of 3Q.
  • Cedevita - Brescia:[FAIL] Brecia managed to balance at 1Q, but couldn't keep the pace. Unfortunately they did not won an advantage big enough for Cedevita odd to go upper.
  • Small punt on DC Norway U21 vs Portugal U21: [FAIL] In Norway's defense, they actually did decently well, but they couldn't cope with Portugal direct counters.2-3.
  • A punt on Ireland U21 to win vs Sweden [WIN] Sweden scored first, but they eventually got battered by 4-1
  • Small punt on BTTS for Scotland match. [WIN] Should had gone harder.
A very good night last night. Some simple bets managed to give me a bit higher profit margin. I can't be unlucky all the time :D
 

André Dominguez

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For today:
  1. Gdyinia - Buducnost: even game. It has potential for live markets. If Gdyinia makes a good start, it will be ok.
  2. Gaziantep - Novogrod: a bit risky, but might have potential for small punting.
  3. Burgos - Hapoel Jerusalem: Burgos is an inconsistent team, so if Hapoel manages to pres them they can create a market opportunity here.
  4. Over 7.5 on Barcelona - Sparta Praga game (futsal)
 

Spiersey

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On Macva Sabac +2.75 small today v Red Star Belgrade (Crvena Zvezda). Looks good value to me, Red Star kicked off -2.25 in the league 2 months ago at home. 0.5 higher of line today and Red Star missing 6 starters with international sides (3 with Serbia, 1 with Oz, 1 with Comoros and 1 with Canada). Mainly their defence that is hit, will be almost all reserves in defence. Degenek is a big miss, Nabouhane a miss up top as well. Sabac should score with the changes, just hoping they play their strongest side as well. Will update if they don't. Probably have -1.75 around fair, think its big value but Sabac are a poor team so could still lose by 3/4 I guess so just a small.
 

ROFLUTION

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On Macva Sabac +2.75 small today v Red Star Belgrade (Crvena Zvezda). Looks good value to me, Red Star kicked off -2.25 in the league 2 months ago at home. 0.5 higher of line today and Red Star missing 6 starters with international sides (3 with Serbia, 1 with Oz, 1 with Comoros and 1 with Canada). Mainly their defence that is hit, will be almost all reserves in defence. Degenek is a big miss, Nabouhane a miss up top as well. Sabac should score with the changes, just hoping they play their strongest side as well. Will update if they don't. Probably have -1.75 around fair, think its big value but Sabac are a poor team so could still lose by 3/4 I guess so just a small.
Can you let us know what odds you got on when you post your tips? (Decimals please)

It could've changed since you betted on it, so it'd be nice with an odds to compare with, so we know if we're arriving late to the party and the odds have dropped to a fair level since you got on. Cheers for the many great tips :)
 

André Dominguez

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On Macva Sabac +2.75 small today v Red Star Belgrade (Crvena Zvezda). Looks good value to me, Red Star kicked off -2.25 in the league 2 months ago at home. 0.5 higher of line today and Red Star missing 6 starters with international sides (3 with Serbia, 1 with Oz, 1 with Comoros and 1 with Canada). Mainly their defence that is hit, will be almost all reserves in defence. Degenek is a big miss, Nabouhane a miss up top as well. Sabac should score with the changes, just hoping they play their strongest side as well. Will update if they don't. Probably have -1.75 around fair, think its big value but Sabac are a poor team so could still lose by 3/4 I guess so just a small.
Looking at results history, seems like a very good reasoning. And the odd is super.
 

André Dominguez

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Can you let us know what odds you got on when you post your tips? (Decimals please)

It could've changed since you betted on it, so it'd be nice with an odds to compare with, so we know if we're arriving late to the party and the odds have dropped to a fair level since you got on. Cheers for the many great tips :)
https://www.oddsportal.com/
:p
 

Spiersey

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Can you let us know what odds you got on when you post your tips? (Decimals please)

It could've changed since you betted on it, so it'd be nice with an odds to compare with, so we know if we're arriving late to the party and the odds have dropped to a fair level since you got on. Cheers for the many great tips :)
my bad, I took 1.9. I always put odds if I tip a market such as Win or Dnb or double chance as these can fluctuate greatly. If I’ve put an asian handicap line then the odds can only really be between 1.75 at 2.0 so I always forget to state for those.

Odds for this has actually went up a bit, hopefully it’s people not realising that Red star are missing. Macva missing a couple with injury but players who were ill are all expected to be back, so hopefully they all play.
 

ROFLUTION

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my bad, I took 1.9. I always put odds if I tip a market such as Win or Dnb or double chance as these can fluctuate greatly. If I’ve put an asian handicap line then the odds can only really be between 1.75 at 2.0 so I always forget to state for those.

Odds for this has actually went up a bit, hopefully it’s people not realising that Red star are missing. Macva missing a couple with injury but players who were ill are all expected to be back, so hopefully they all play.
Cheers! There's a lot of difference if an odds is value even if it fluctuates from 1.75 to 2.0, so it'd be awesome if you'd post the exact odds, as it's the only way to see if we get on the value-wagon or not. Think I'll get on this one too. Cheers :drool:
 

Spiersey

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On Macva Sabac +2.75 small today v Red Star Belgrade (Crvena Zvezda). Looks good value to me, Red Star kicked off -2.25 in the league 2 months ago at home. 0.5 higher of line today and Red Star missing 6 starters with international sides (3 with Serbia, 1 with Oz, 1 with Comoros and 1 with Canada). Mainly their defence that is hit, will be almost all reserves in defence. Degenek is a big miss, Nabouhane a miss up top as well. Sabac should score with the changes, just hoping they play their strongest side as well. Will update if they don't. Probably have -1.75 around fair, think its big value but Sabac are a poor team so could still lose by 3/4 I guess so just a small.
Looks fixed, +3.5 now and Red Star are way weaker than expected. Sabac missing a couple but its 4 starters and 7 reserves for Red Star.
 

ROFLUTION

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Fixed in a good way or? So putting more money on Sabac is a good idea or?
Whoa, the price for +3.5 has gone from 1.4 an hour or two ago to 1.67 at my bookie. Something suspicious about this it seems. Sabac victory has jumped with more than 14-20 some places :nervous:

Time to cash out and take a loss? :nervous:
 

Spiersey

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Fixed in a good way or? So putting more money on Sabac is a good idea or?
Fixed for at least a 3 goal Red Star Win from odds movement. Line now 1.25 higher than the league game and Red Star missing 6 from that game. I'm just letting my bet run, only got a small on, hoping it was odds manipulation as the limits weren't big pre in Asia. Can see in play, hopefully they don't just let them score.
 

ROFLUTION

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Fixed for at least a 3 goal Red Star Win from odds movement. Line now 1.25 higher than the league game and Red Star missing 6 from that game. I'm just letting my bet run, only got a small on, hoping it was odds manipulation as the limits weren't big pre in Asia. Can see in play, hopefully they don't just let them score.
Cheers! Backing out of it
 

Spiersey

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On Macva Sabac +2.75 small today v Red Star Belgrade (Crvena Zvezda). Looks good value to me, Red Star kicked off -2.25 in the league 2 months ago at home. 0.5 higher of line today and Red Star missing 6 starters with international sides (3 with Serbia, 1 with Oz, 1 with Comoros and 1 with Canada). Mainly their defence that is hit, will be almost all reserves in defence. Degenek is a big miss, Nabouhane a miss up top as well. Sabac should score with the changes, just hoping they play their strongest side as well. Will update if they don't. Probably have -1.75 around fair, think its big value but Sabac are a poor team so could still lose by 3/4 I guess so just a small.
1-0 FT Won, Red Star had no goalscorers playing, really showed, couldn't score. Really annoyed at the odds movement pre game, put me off big time.
 

One Night Only

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1-0 FT Won, Red Star had no goalscorers playing, really showed, couldn't score. Really annoyed at the odds movement pre game, put me off big time.
I was lucky I left mine to ride, seen it 0-0 at HT, then seen them miss a penalty at about 60mins or something. Thought when they got it, it was the start of the late surge to get the 3/4-0 :lol:
 

André Dominguez

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1-0 FT Won, Red Star had no goalscorers playing, really showed, couldn't score. Really annoyed at the odds movement pre game, put me off big time.
It was a great tip though. I went on AH and I got a very decent profit thanks to your tip.
Same can't be said of my yesterday trade atempts :D
 

André Dominguez

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  1. Gdyinia - Buducnost: [FAIL] Gdynia only managed to compete at 1Q, never to recover again.
  2. Gaziantep - Novogrod: [WIN] Position closed at 2Q
  3. Burgos - Hapoel Jerusalem: [FAIL] Only a small punt, but a fail nonetheless. Hapoel played poorly on 2nd and 3rd Qs, but almost recovered on the 4Q.
  4. Over 7.5 on Barcelona - Sparta Praga [FAIL] Barcelona rotated a lot
Not the best nights for punting...
 

André Dominguez

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For today:
  1. Valencia - Khimki: Odd is actually quite good for Valencia, but they are very irregular this season, so beware.
  2. Almaty - Murcia (futsal) very even match. It can become good on live markets.
  3. Sporting - Novo Vrijeme (futsal) looks good for overs, unless Sporting makes experiments on this match.
  4. Benfica - Pesaro (futsal) Pesaro +2 seems reasonable and might happen if they manage to defend tight.
 

Spiersey

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I've no bookie accounts currently so won't be watching properly, but would recommend watching the Beach World cup if possible and betting in play. It won't be well priced, similar to the Socca World Cup last month, you don't have to have any knowledge of it to profit on it, it's badly mispriced generally, will be value on a certain market for most games (eg Overs or Unders will be priced wrongly for the first couple of days). Just be selective and don't bet every game.
 

John_Dooh

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If there is anyone here following biathlon, Expekt has priced Norway @2,50 in the 4x7,5km relay world cup for overall win, which is good value. Others are down to 2,15. Just bet it myself, but not so much as I don't like to tie up too much of my bankroll on seasonal bets. Makes it more entartaining to follow though!:drool:
 

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Just seen that in Holland’s to two leagues this weekend the players are not going to play for the first 5 minutes to combat racism. You can currently get @ 2.68 for the 4 games on Saturday to be goalless after 10 minutes on B365
 

Prometheus

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Just seen that in Holland’s to two leagues this weekend the players are not going to play for the first 5 minutes to combat racism. You can currently get @ 2.68 for the 4 games on Saturday to be goalless after 10 minutes on B365
What would the price be usually? I imagine they adjusted for that.
 

Spiersey

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Had some on Lokomotiv Moscow +0.5 at 1.81 at home to Leverkusen next week. Not one to bet CL really so just a small bet as mainstream. I’ve got standard Russia home bias as being 0.75 of a goal, they were +1.25 away in Germany. However, it will be around -6 in Moscow for the game, compared to around 10-15 degrees for their previous home games. Russian sides very rarely lose their final home game of the groups due to this factor. Rostov beat Bayern a couple years back, Bayern players said they just couldn’t ever warm up and get going. It makes a pretty big difference. Germany is cold but they have a winter break so they aren’t used to playing in that temperature. Think it’ll be a pretty close game, I’ve got 0 Asians fair.
 

Samid

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Had some on Lokomotiv Moscow +0.5 at 1.81 at home to Leverkusen next week. Not one to bet CL really so just a small bet as mainstream. I’ve got standard Russia home bias as being 0.75 of a goal, they were +1.25 away in Germany. However, it will be around -6 in Moscow for the game, compared to around 10-15 degrees for their previous home games. Russian sides very rarely lose their final home game of the groups due to this factor. Rostov beat Bayern a couple years back, Bayern players said they just couldn’t ever warm up and get going. It makes a pretty big difference. Germany is cold but they have a winter break so they aren’t used to playing in that temperature. Think it’ll be a pretty close game, I’ve got 0 Asians fair.
For the same reasons do you think there's some value in Astana +1.5? Around -10 on Thursday, ridiculous travel and there's no reason whatsoever for United to risk players with the existing injuries and the hectic schedule coming up.
 

Spiersey

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For the same reasons do you think there's some value in Astana +1.5? Around -10 on Thursday, ridiculous travel and there's no reason whatsoever for United to risk players with the existing injuries and the hectic schedule coming up.
I think so but United game is being played under a roof, I’ve been meaning to check what the temperature will be in the stadium but haven’t got round to it. I think + is probably okay value anyway, maybe unders is better. Can’t imagine it’ll be a strong United side out given qualification is secured, would expect best players don’t even travel. Astana lack a proper goal threat so would lean towards unders.
 
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