Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

Pagh Wraith

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Tuesday:

Farsley v Brackley, Brackley -0.25 @ 1.99
Grenoble v Clermont, Clermont 0 @ 1.94
Paris FC v Guingamp, Guingamp 0 @ 1.92
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth, Crystal Palace -0.5 @ 2.20
Eastleigh v Wrexham, Wrexham 0.25 @ 2.21
 
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Chipper

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On these for Tuesday:
Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv 1.72
Angers SCO 2.90
Eastleigh 2.00
Lorient 1.90
Lyon 2.00
--------------------------------------------
Monday turned out well enough in the end with a late recovery. 4 out of 7 and +1.35 units.

PKS Makassar -1.00
Hapoel Rishon Lezion -1.00
Hapoel Akko -1.00
Bnei Sakhnin +0.72
MAT Tetouan +0.66
FC Utrecht II +1.87
Cagliari +1.10
 

André Dominguez

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For today:
Mainz to win: they are improving and Frankfurt is falling.
BTS Vasco - Cruzeiro: Fragile teams facing each other, but Cruzeiro urgently needs points for the relegation battle. Vasco needs to secure the Sud-American spot, but they migh not be that motivated since it's a competiton that a team with Vasco history might not feel motivated to enter.
Cagliaria to win
DC Rio Ave
Porto - Paços Ferreira over 3

Cholet to win (possible trading)
Kuban AH-5.5
Novogrod AH+8.5 (a bit risky)
Small punt on UNICS Kazan
Anadolu AH-10.5 (a bit risky)
4 wins and 5 fails. Not a good monday at all but it wasn't terrible either.

Edit: my bad: 5 wins and 5 fails (forgot the Cholet match). No harm done then.
 

André Dominguez

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Bordeaux to win
Lyon to win
Small punt DC Burnley
Antwerp to win

Possible trading:
Dijon to win
Nymburk to win (a bit risky)
Hapoel Holon to win
Vechta to win
Manresa +10
 

Pagh Wraith

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Tuesday:

Farsley v Brackley, Brackley -0.25 @ 1.991-1
Grenoble v Clermont, Clermont 0 @ 1.941-1
Paris FC v Guingamp, Guingamp 0 @ 1.920-3
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth, Crystal Palace -0.5 @ 2.201-0
Eastleigh v Wrexham, Wrexham 0.25 @ 2.210-2
3 wins, 1 push and a half-loss. Brackley closed at 1.4 and seem to have completely bossed it but only found a 90th-minute equaliser.
 

MC89

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Kilmarnock 5/6 at Rugby Park is great bet
Leicester -1 evs
 

Chipper

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Wednesday for me:
Green Eagles 2.00
Al Nahdha 1.80
FK Graficar Beograd 1.61
FK Cukaricki 1.90
Melilla 2.00
Hapoel Haifa 2.20
Hamburger SV II 1.75
-------------------------------------------
Oof, Almost a total wipeout on Tuesday:

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv , Angers SCO , Eastleigh , Lyon = losing bets -4.00
Lorient = won, +0.90
Lost 3.10 units on the day.
 

André Dominguez

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Bordeaux to win
Lyon to win
Small punt DC Burnley
Antwerp to win

Possible trading:
Dijon to win
Nymburk to win (a bit risky)
Hapoel Holon to win
Vechta to win
Manresa +10
4 wins and 5 fails. Can't say it was a big loss because it was relatively marginal but clearly not a good evening.
 

André Dominguez

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BetReasoningOdd
Atletico Paranaense to winThey are very solid at home and need to win to atempt to qualify for next season Libertadores2.31
Ceará to win (risky)Ceará needs a win to avoid relegation and Corinthians have no motivation for this match. 2.35
DC West HamI think they can get a draw at least2.01
Benfica AH-18.5Ovarense has been very poor lately, it will be no surprise if they get battered. This has potential for trading. 1.86
 

John_Dooh

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Liverpool under 2.5 offsides vs Everton tonight is 2.25 atm at Bet365. Been under that line 12/14 league games.....
 

Dannnny

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I know it’s a derby and anything can happen etc. BUT surely 11/10 for Liverpool -1 is too good? Or am I being silly?
 

Pagh Wraith

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I know it’s a derby and anything can happen etc. BUT surely 11/10 for Liverpool -1 is too good? Or am I being silly?
Are you sure that's the correct price? The -1 line has been trading around 1.70. Do you mean -1.25?
 

Chipper

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I officially don't like Israeli football. Weird that a lot of their matches seem to fit my criteria for finding a bet. 7 out 35 total bets so far looking at every match in every league on Bet 365 since Friday (skipped Saturday mostly). 2 wins, 4 defeats with Israeli teams, currently losing again. The 2 wins were 2 of the shorter priced wins I've had too.

Edit: Mind you, my boys have equalised now and are playing against 10 men. Come on!
 
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Dannnny

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Ah, that makes sense. Didn't even think about that. In that case it is a pretty bad price. The equivalent -1.5 Asian line is trading much higher at 2.35.
Yeah I did mean the 3 way but thanks for the heads up with the Asian line, didn’t think of that.
 

muller

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Likely outcome is they will play or game suspended.. but Crewe -2 is 7/1- on betfair..
 

Chipper

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Wednesday losing bets: Al Nahdha, Melilla, Hamburger SV II -3.00
Wednesday winners: Green Eagles +1.00, FK Graficar Beograd +0.61, FK Cukaricki +0.90, Hapoel Haifa +1.20
+0.71 Units

Thursday= Absolutely nothing
 

André Dominguez

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BetReasoningOddResultProfit
Atletico Paranaense to winThey are very solid at home and need to win to atempt to qualify for next season Libertadores2.31Win13.10 €
Ceará to win (risky)Ceará needs a win to avoid relegation and Corinthians have no motivation for this match.2.35Fail-5.00 €
DC West HamI think they can get a draw at least2.01Fail-5.00 €
Benfica AH-18.5Ovarense has been very poor lately, it will be no surprise if they get battered. This has potential for trading.1.86Fail-10.00 €
Total of the day-11.90€
Not the best day to place my bets, yesterday.
 

André Dominguez

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So... today's picks (and possible fails)
BetReasoningOdd
BTS Bahia - VascoNothing to play for. Both teams qualified for Sud-Americana cup. 2.05
Gremio - Cruzeiro over 2.5Grémio seasons is done, Cruzeiro needs to win to avoid relegation. I smell goals (or not)2.01
DC Goias (risky)Palmeiras is under an internal crisis, so anything can happen.3.00
Flamengo - Avai over 3.5Crowned champions vs bottom of the table.2.02
Sheffield Utd to winWhy not?1.97
Zalgiris AH+10.5A bit risky, but CSKA usually struggles against this team1.92
Real Madrid AH-9.5It might happen...1.83
 

Spiersey

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Likely outcome is they will play or game suspended.. but Crewe -2 is 7/1- on betfair..
Game won't be played I think. Macclesfield don't actually have a youth team (academy). They have access to a community college club which plays under their name. As a result, none are actually registered Macclesfield players. The only reason they could play the FA Cup game was because they were registered for the FA Youth Cup under Macclesfield u18s. Was complete freak circumstances that game, Huge limits, great odds before the mainstream media found out + the kids being allowed to play. Alternative scenario is the first team plays if they get paid.
 

muller

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Game won't be played I think. Macclesfield don't actually have a youth team (academy). They have access to a community college club which plays under their name. As a result, none are actually registered Macclesfield players. The only reason they could play the FA Cup game was because they were registered for the FA Youth Cup under Macclesfield u18s. Was complete freak circumstances that game, Huge limits, great odds before the mainstream media found out + the kids being allowed to play. Alternative scenario is the first team plays if they get paid.
You;re right with all of the above, although there may be (unlikely) enough loan players and registered youth players to play.

Tried to read up but thought it was worth the tip. They haven't trained yesterday or today anyway. Worst is that i'll get my money back I think!
 

André Dominguez

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Already closed the trade on CSKA - Zalgiris match. I placed CSKA to win as arb bet. Which means that if CSKA recovers and wins by less than 11 points, I win both bets!
 

Chipper

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On this lot today:
Melbourne City 2.15
CD Alaves B 1.83
Bohemians 1905 2.40
Lokomotiv Moscow 2.25
NAC Breda 2.25
Colon 1.75
 

Pagh Wraith

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Weekend bets:

Hamburg v Heidenheim, Hamburg -1 @ 1.98
Mannheim v Braunschweig, Mannheim 0 @ 2
Gladbach v Bayern , Gladbach 1 @ 2.07
Augsburg v Mainz, Augsburg -0.25 @ 2.03
Gillingham v Sunderland, Sunderland -0.25 @ 2.14
Tranmere v Accrington, Accrington 0 @ 1.94
Mansfield v Cheltenham, Mansfield -0.5 @ 2.26
Bradford PA v Altrincham , Altrincham -0.5 @ 1.99
St. Albans v Hampton & Richmond, St. Albans 0.75 @ 1.81
 

André Dominguez

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So... today's picks (and possible fails)
BetReasoningOddProfit
BTS Bahia - VascoNothing to play for. Both teams qualified for Sud-Americana cup.2.0520.50€
Gremio - Cruzeiro over 2.5Grémio seasons is done, Cruzeiro needs to win to avoid relegation. I smell goals (or not)2.01-10.00€
DC Goias (risky)Palmeiras is under an internal crisis, so anything can happen.3.00-5.00€
Flamengo - Avai over 3.5Crowned champions vs bottom of the table.2.0220.00€
Sheffield Utd to winWhy not?1.97-10.00€
Zalgiris AH+10.5A bit risky, but CSKA usually struggles against this team1.9219.20€ + 18.00€ = 37.20€
Real Madrid AH-9.5It might happen...1.8318.30€
71.00€
A very decent evening last night. Bankroll way up, many thanks to the CSKA match where I was able to make a profitable trade (initial bet was Zalgiris + 10.5 and made a trade bet on CSKA to win when Zalgiris got a 12 point advantadge. CSKA won the match by less than 11 points, which meant double profit!
 

André Dominguez

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BetReasoningOdd
Gonçalo Paciência to scoreThis guys usually scores against weaker opposition2.45
DC Nimes (a bit risky)What Lyon is going to show up today?2.02
Inter to winRoma is inconsistent and their defense raises doubts1.87
Ajax - Willem over 4.5 (risky)Willem and Ajax = goals (usually)2.10
Boavista +1 (a bit risky)Benfica is wining plenty of games by minimal margin2.55
Basic Fit Brussels to win (possible arb)Probably an even game against Aalstar1.92
Liege AH+18.5 (a bit risky)The historic between the teams doesn't show many battering, but it can happen because Liege is very weak1.81
Spotter Leuven to winMechelen has lost 3 games in a row at home and Leuven managed to make some interesting results lately2.11
Khimki to win (arb)Barcelona has a strong roster this season, but Khimki at home is never easy2.22
Lyon to win (risky)Lyon is one of the weaket team of Euroleague, but Zenit home form has been very poor, even at VTB cup2.80
Baskonia to win (a bit risky)Baskonia is never easy at home either, but Anadolu is a very consistent team to watch for.2.05
Boulazac to winThey are facing the worst team of LNB, but bare in mind that Boulazac are not that good either1.81
Kalev/Cramo to winThey are facing Enisey who's punching oer the belt this season, but Kalev at home is usually a solid team. But beware of Enisey form.2.11
 

Pagh Wraith

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I'm very interested in backing Slavia away to Dortmund on Tuesday getting a 1.75 handicap start. Inter were only asked to give up 0.75 at home to Slavia and I think this has been very much price based on need. But the Czechs have shown they are no push-overs and have held their own in the toughest group possible. They lead their domestic league by a country mile having conceded only three goals in 18 matches (as well as keeping a clean sheet at the Nou Camp and restricting Inter to an injury time equaliser at the San Siro). I have no doubt they won't take this any less seriously because they can't qualify.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Also, in group G Leipzig are already through but all other teams can still qualify. Benfica have the toughest ask as they need Leipzig to win in Lyon and win the h2h vs Zenit by beating them 2-0 or by three goals should the Russians score (first leg was 3-1 Zenit). Zenit themselves can't afford to sit back because they at least to match Lyon's result. The game in Portugal should be incredibly open with potentially a lot of late action depending on the scoreline in France. The Asian line is set at 2.5 goals which is way too low.
 

Chipper

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Ha, so far today my picks are P4 W0 D0 L4 F0 A11.Couldn't do that if I tried even betting 10/1 shots, one of them would probably at least score a goal.
 

André Dominguez

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BetReasoningOdd€/TH]
Gonçalo Paciência to scoreThis guys usually scores against weaker opposition2.45-7.50€
DC Nimes (a bit risky)What Lyon is going to show up today?2.02-5.0€
Inter to winRoma is inconsistent and their defense raises doubts1.87-10.00€
Ajax - Willem over 4.5 (risky)Willem and Ajax = goals (usually)2.10-10.00€
Boavista +1 (a bit risky)Benfica is wining plenty of games by minimal margin2.55-5.0€
Basic Fit Brussels to win (possible arb)Probably an even game against Aalstar1.9211.80€
Liege AH+18.5 (a bit risky)The historic between the teams doesn't show many battering, but it can happen because Liege is very weak1.81-5.00€
Spotter Leuven to winMechelen has lost 3 games in a row at home and Leuven managed to make some interesting results lately2.1121.10€
Khimki to win (arb)Barcelona has a strong roster this season, but Khimki at home is never easy2.22-7.50€
Lyon to win (risky)Lyon is one of the weaket team of Euroleague, but Zenit home form has been very poor, even at VTB cup2.8018.00€
Baskonia to win (a bit risky)Baskonia is never easy at home either, but Anadolu is a very consistent team to watch for.2.05-10.00€
Boulazac to winThey are facing the worst team of LNB, but bare in mind that Boulazac are not that good either1.81-7.50€
Kalev/Cramo to winThey are facing Enisey who's punching oer the belt this season, but Kalev at home is usually a solid team. But beware of Enisey form.2.1120.50€
Boulazac to winThey are facing the worst team of LNB, but bare in mind that Boulazac are not that good either1.81-7.50€
Total of the day: 3.90€
[TH]
It's a bloody miracle on how did I didn't end on negative numbers. Failed everything in bloody football. Lucky for me that some of my higher stakes ended up well.