German Football 22/23 | 2. Bundesliga returns | Hamburg vs Schalke 20:30 |

[do.ob]

That's again nonsense. Yes, you don't need to play for goals/xG when you're in the lead but Dortmund could or almost should already have been behind when they scored their first and it was a natrow one goal lead until the 55th, at which time they also had fewer chances/xG. Leverkusen actually didn't create that much xG after the second goal. So your argument of is pointless yet a bit funny considering that you've been guilty of the very same mistake you accuse me of quite often - but I guess these kind of detail isn't all that important when it comes to analyzing games of teams you dislike

IF you want to take xG so literally you should be aware that .55 xG at the time of Dortmund's goal doesn't really come close to "should have been behind" and that Leverkusen was at .82 xG at the time of Dortmund's second goal, so they actually created more than half their final value afterwards. And again: looking at xG that way is pretty questionable: this game even gave us a good example why, since Tapsoba scoring an own goal before Haller could score a tap-in registered at 0 xG. I'll also have you know that it's preposterous to suggest that I dislike Leverkusen. Infact just yesterday I considered signing up for membership, when I saw that there were still tickets to buy for the Dortmund game and it's really quite cheap. If I can find some Köln fans to pool with I may become a fellow Bayer next season.

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[stefan92]

I'll also have you know that it's preposterous to suggest that I dislike Leverkusen. Infact just yesterday I considered signing up for membership, when I saw that there were still tickets to buy for the Dortmund game and it's really quite cheap. If I can find some Köln fans to pool with I may become a fellow Bayer next season.

Ouch

 

[Zehner]

Ouch

Not true. Tried to get tickets last weak and it was already sold out. Probably tickets that went back to sale or something like that.

 

[B. Munich]

Well, you can't attribute Neuer's stupidity to the WC I'm afraid

Maybe not directly, but without the WC Neuer wouldn't have had the time off to go on dangerous ski tours.

You can actually add Pavard to the list who came mentally shot from the WC after he lost his spot in the team. He faces "mental" problems similar to Sancho.

 

[B. Munich]

Isn't Dortmund playing bad very often despite winning? Seems for me to be an ongoing occurence...

If Bayern had the "game luck" of Dortmund, then we had gotten also 9 points from the last 3 matches.

Sommer had 5 shots on goal in 3 games and 3 resulted in goals. Terrible quote.

There wasn't a clear mistake but I'm starting to doubt Sommer got the quality of Neuer to be 100% focused even he haven't gotten a ball in goal for 70 minutes.
Sommer seems to excel with he has plenty of action which hardly will happen at Munich.

 

[B. Munich]

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Kobel being in the team of the day is somehow telling, isn't it?

 

[do.ob]

If Bayern had the "game luck" of Dortmund, then we had gotten also 9 points from the last 3 matches.

Sommer had 5 shots on goal in 3 games and 3 resulted in goals. Terrible quote.

There wasn't a clear mistake but I'm starting to doubt Sommer got the quality of Neuer to be 100% focused even he haven't gotten a ball in goal for 70 minutes.
Sommer seems to excel with he has plenty of action which hardly will happen at Munich.

I'd say that Dortmund were actually a bit unfortunate to end up in such a close game against Augsburg and against Leverkusen it's up to you whether you want to call them efficient or lucky, but from what I've seen Bayern were unlucky not to win any of those three games, but it wasn't a total freak outcome either.

And I'm not sure Sommer ever known for consistency. He's a big game player, who frequently rises to the occasion, but I think during the daily grind he's always had his ups and downs.

 

[B. Munich]

I'd say that Dortmund were actually a bit unfortunate to end up in such a close game against Augsburg and against Leverkusen it's up to you whether you want to call them efficient or lucky,

Well if Dortmund were efficient against Leverkusen, then Augsburg were efficient against Dortmund. They even missed a sitter to equalize in the last minute.

from what I've seen Bayern were unlucky not to win any of those three games, but it wasn't a total freak outcome either.

True. Bayern doesn't play well and are far away from the good form they had before the WC for obvious reasons.
Still they should have at least won 1 or 2 if these games, because despite playing not Bayern like they were the better team in all matches and had more chances and shot on goals.

I'm no fan of Sommer and Neuer is a huge loss. Not only on the pitch but also in the dressing room.

 

[Zehner]

IF you want to take xG so literally you should be aware that .55 xG at the time of Dortmund's goal doesn't really come close to "should have been behind" and that Leverkusen was at .82 xG at the time of Dortmund's second goal, so they actually created more than half their final value afterwards. And again: looking at xG that way is pretty questionable: this game even gave us a good example why, since Tapsoba scoring an own goal before Haller could score a tap-in registered at 0 xG. I'll also have you know that it's preposterous to suggest that I dislike Leverkusen. Infact just yesterday I considered signing up for membership, when I saw that there were still tickets to buy for the Dortmund game and it's really quite cheap. If I can find some Köln fans to pool with I may become a fellow Bayer next season.

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A good point. Let's hear what yesteryear's do.ob. had to say about own goals when Augsburg scored them against Leverkusen

Regarding xG: according to understat Leverkusen are overperforming their's by nine goals, three of which were own goals and thus definitely just dumb luck.

Oh, that sounds a bit different. But I guess in Dortmund's case, they just forced their luck. I mean, if Tapsoba had let that ball through to Haller - at knee height, without a direct lane to goal, closely marked by two Leverkusen players - that surely would have accounted for 1.1 xG. Whereas in Leverkusen's case, it was just pure randomness and devoid of any xG capacities. Also interesting that yesteryear-do.ob (correctly) pointed out how flattering Leverkusen's goals and points totals were compared to their xG. Guess who's xPts value is very flattering this season with an overperformance of 4.61?

Sadly, @B. Munich is completely on point. Dortmund's, Freiburg's, Union's and Frankfurt's point returns aren't sustainable while Bayern's absolutely is. Which is kind of bad for Dortmund considering that their overall underwhelming results are lucky on top of it.

 

[stefan92]

Sadly, @B. Munich is completely on point. Dortmund's, Freiburg's, Union's and Frankfurt's point returns aren't sustainable while Bayern's absolutely is. Which is kind of bad for Dortmund considering that their overall underwhelming results are lucky on top of it.

Predicting the future again, are we? It doesn't work like that. In hindsight we can say that they have been more or less lucky to get their results, based on the xG stats, and yes it has to be expected that real results and xG will get closer to each other in the long run.

But it simply might not happen, it might be that the xG/performances improve and the results stay the same, it might be that Bayern drop off even further.

Claiming that something is unsustainable while it's just unlikely is simply not understanding statistics.

 

[Zehner]

Predicting the future again, are we? It doesn't work like that. In hindsight we can say that they have been more or less lucky to get their results, based on the xG stats, and yes it has to be expected that real results and xG will get closer to each other in the long run.

But it simply might not happen, it might be that the xG/performances improve and the results stay the same, it might be that Bayern drop off even further.

Claiming that something is unsustainable while it's just unlikely is simply not understanding statistics.

Going by that logic, we should not read anything out of anything. Schalke plays bad? Well, this doesn't necessarily mean that they play bad next game, does it? Maybe they turn into prime Barcelona and still reach the UEL spots. But in reality, xG reflects the performance of a team and their likelihood of winning as accurately as few other statistics. And as we all know, past performances - especially recent ones - are a very good indicator of future performances - especially those in the near future. Yes, it is not perfect and yes, there are outliers. But in most cases, it is on point and if you simply say "team Y has outperformed its xPts, it won't continue like this" you'll be right more often than not. Because let's be real, the blind spots are a particularly rare occurence.

 

[do.ob]

A good point. Let's hear what yesteryear's do.ob. had to say about own goals when Augsburg scored them against Leverkusen



Oh, that sounds a bit different. But I guess in Dortmund's case, they just forced their luck. I mean, if Tapsoba had let that ball through to Haller - at knee height, without a direct lane to goal, closely marked by two Leverkusen players - that surely would have accounted for 1.1 xG. Whereas in Leverkusen's case, it was just pure randomness and devoid of any xG capacities. Also interesting that yesteryear-do.ob (correctly) pointed out how flattering Leverkusen's goals and points totals were compared to their xG. Guess who's xPts value is very flattering this season with an overperformance of 4.61?

Sadly, @B. Munich is completely on point. Dortmund's, Freiburg's, Union's and Frankfurt's point returns aren't sustainable while Bayern's absolutely is. Which is kind of bad for Dortmund considering that their overall underwhelming results are lucky on top of it.

You argument is kind of all over the place. I don't really believe in taking xG as gospel for individual games, so I have no need to find parity between the two teams. Neither did I try to quantify the threat of that particular situation, beyond stating that it was more than zero. And yes, if you get three own goals your way in a relatively short time span I'm 99% sure that it's luck rather than skill.

Going by that logic, we should not read anything out of anything. Schalke plays bad? Well, this doesn't necessarily mean that they play bad next game, does it? Maybe they turn into prime Barcelona and still reach the UEL spots. But in reality, xG reflects the performance of a team and their likelihood of winning as accurately as few other statistics. And as we all know, past performances - especially recent ones - are a very good indicator of future performances - especially those in the near future. Yes, it is not perfect and yes, there are outliers. But in most cases, it is on point and if you simply say "team Y has outperformed its xPts, it won't continue like this" you'll be right more often than not. Because let's be real, the blind spots are a particularly rare occurence.

You're - again - misusing the model. It's a useful tool, not a crystal ball. Take a look at the team you picked for your example ..
xPts actually has Schalke above the cut, infact it suggests that they are the most undervalued team in the entire division, (one of) the worst exampels to pick for the point you were trying to make. Yet everyone, who has watched them knows that they have been quite hopeless, aside from a few halfway decent moments.

On the other hand Dortmund's xG or xPts holds little value for the future. I don't expect them to challenge for the title this year, but there is enough room for growth / returning players in the squad that the past is not a good indicator to predict how things will develop in the future.

 

[Hansi Fick]

If you think the week couldn't get worse for Hertha, now Union are signing fecking Isco

 

[Acrobat7]

If you think the week couldn't get worse for Hertha, now Union are signing fecking Isco

Who has been absolut pants for what..? 3 years?

 

[GhastlyHun]

Who has been absolut pants for what..? 3 years?

Yeah, whatever happened to him? @giorno

 

[stefan92]

Who has been absolut pants for what..? 3 years?

Doesn't matter. The fun point is that signing a multiple times CL winner as a squad option is exactly what a Big City Club would do.

Oh... wait... wrong club, right city...

 

[giorno]

Yeah, whatever happened to him? @giorno

About 3 years yeah. Was decent at times in 19/20 though beyond that he's been almost an ex player since the appendicitis in 2018

 

[stefan92]

All kidding aside: Looks like Union essentially signed their next Max Kruse - old player, not that fit as the rest of team, but a great technician. Will be interesting to see how this works out, if he does indeed follow Kruse's footsteps at Union it would be quite good.

 

[Hansi Fick]

Doesn't matter. The fun point is that signing a multiple times CL winner as a squad option is exactly what a Big City Club would do.

Oh... wait... wrong club, right city...

Exactly. It's probably the highest profile player to ever play in Berlin.

 

[Acrobat7]

Exactly. It's probably the highest profile player to ever play in Berlin.

Harsh on Kiraly.

 

[do.ob]

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What?

 

[Zehner]

You argument is kind of all over the place. I don't really believe in taking xG as gospel for individual games, so I have no need to find parity between the two teams. Neither did I try to quantify the threat of that particular situation, beyond stating that it was more than zero. And yes, if you get three own goals your way in a relatively short time span I'm 99% sure that it's luck rather than skill.

It's funny that this statement is repeated so often because it makes no sense. For me that's an indication that you don't know what you're talking about but I still admire your persuasiveness while doing so

For what it's worth, xG isn't some sort of A/B test or a survey for which you need a certain sample size to minimize statistical noise. It's a scoring model that's been fed with large data sets. Your criticism only applies to shots that occur so rarely that the model doesn't find enough comparable events to make a profound estimation - bicycle kicks, long range backheels, you name it. However, the very reason they're calculated wrongly is the reason they rarely mess with the xG values of single games: They occur almost never. Or in other words: The higher the chance that a type of shot occurs, the better the model knows how to rate it. Of course there is still a lot to criticize about the model but it is not related to the amount of shots you're looking at. xG has blind spots and certain systems will generate more xG and some will generate less. But this doesn't change that it strongly correlates with the actual (immeasurable) goal probability - of course not perfectly but you don't need a coefficient of 1 to read something out of a score.

You're - again - misusing the model. It's a useful tool, not a crystal ball. Take a look at the team you picked for your example ..
xPts actually has Schalke above the cut, infact it suggests that they are the most undervalued team in the entire division, (one of) the worst exampels to pick for the point you were trying to make. Yet everyone, who has watched them knows that they have been quite hopeless, aside from a few halfway decent moments.

Man, who cares about the team I picked? I chose Schalke as the personification of bad performances. This part was not even about xG, it was about whether present performances are indicative of future performances. Which is definitely the case, can't believe I have to argue this.

On the other hand Dortmund's xG or xPts holds little value for the future. I don't expect them to challenge for the title this year, but there is enough room for growth / returning players in the squad that the past is not a good indicator to predict how things will develop in the future.

xG may not be a crystal ball but when you're constantly underperforming your xG, you have either found a playing style that's not captured very well by the model (like Favre) or your success/failure is unlikely to continue.

 

[Zehner]

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What?

Hope we sell him if Hertha really is interested. If we refuse, it would be the second most dumb decision of the window after holding onto Meunier.

 

[ForEverEleven]

Simon Rolfes went asleep the whole day, amazing.

 

[stefan92]

No reaction yet to the Isco deal failing at last minute?

 

[do.ob]

It's funny that this statement is repeated so often because it makes no sense. For me that's an indication that you don't know what you're talking about but I still admire your persuasiveness while doing so

For what it's worth, xG isn't some sort of A/B test or a survey for which you need a certain sample size to minimize statistical noise. It's a scoring model that's been fed with large data sets. Your criticism only applies to shots that occur so rarely that the model doesn't find enough comparable events to make a profound estimation - bicycle kicks, long range backheels, you name it. However, the very reason they're calculated wrongly is the reason they rarely mess with the xG values of single games: They occur almost never. Or in other words: The higher the chance that a type of shot occurs, the better the model knows how to rate it. Of course there is still a lot to criticize about the model but it is not related to the amount of shots you're looking at. xG has blind spots and certain systems will generate more xG and some will generate less. But this doesn't change that it strongly correlates with the actual (immeasurable) goal probability - of course not perfectly but you don't need a coefficient of 1 to read something out of a score.

The problem with using xG to judge individual matches is that it doesn't tell you anything about context or why the stat looks like it does. It doesn't capture at all if someone for example fails to square the ball for an open goal, it didn't capture Tabsoba's two attempted own goals on Sunday, it doesn't capture game-state related strategy, e.g. if a team drops back, because they lead or if a team gets a bunch of counter attacks in late in the game, because they happened to be in the lead.
The more games you take into consideration the less these factors matter, because they usually balance each other out over time.
But reading one value and applying it indisrimminately doesn't make an analysis and there's a reason why the creators of the model are looking for ever more advanced metrics, such as xT for example, to account for the aforementioned shortcomings.

Man, who cares about the team I picked? I chose Schalke as the personification of bad performances. This part was not even about xG, it was about whether present performances are indicative of future performances. Which is definitely the case, can't believe I have to argue this.

I just think it's pretty ironic that you picked a team that most people would probably use as a counter example for xG's predictive value.

xG may not be a crystal ball but when you're constantly underperforming your xG, you have either found a playing style that's not captured very well by the model (like Favre) or your success/failure is unlikely to continue.

That's just a very simplistic view of things, taking for granted that little will change for a team over the course of the season. You can't just copy one number and think you got it figured out, you still have to use your head.

Simon Rolfes went asleep the whole day, amazing.

What was he supposed to do?

The season is more or less over for Leverkusen, not much to expect in either direction. The squad doesn't have any glaring quantitative holes. We all know Leverkusen play by different financial rules, but in general I'd expect a club to curb their spending a bit when they unexpectedly miss European football.

No reaction yet to the Isco deal failing at last minute?

It's not really huge drama, is it? He hasn't done too well for years and probably would have been a highly speculative transfer.

 

[ForEverEleven]

What was he supposed to do?

The season is more or less over for Leverkusen, not much to expect in either direction. The squad doesn't have any glaring quantitative holes. We all know Leverkusen play by different financial rules, but in general I'd expect a club to curb their spending a bit when they unexpectedly miss European football.

We are crying out for a left back to give us an alternative to Bakker. We were close to signing Gosens last summer, fell through. A few days ago close to signing Fran Garcia, fell through (admittedly not Rolfes' fault). Then on deadline day he decides to offer Stuttgart a ridiculous 10 million for Sosa, does the Pikachu face when they reject it and just gives up. It's obvious he knows we need a left back but he cant sign one. Instead we signed two teenage central midfielders, a position where we are absolutely stacked in quantity and arguably in quality as well. And on top of that we sold Sertdemir to Denmark, the second big talent after Bravo that was acquired and sold again before he even gets a chance in the first team. Not a good look in general.

Edit: How is the season over for us? It is majorly important if we play european football next season or not.

 

[stefan92]

It's not really huge drama, is it? He hasn't done too well for years and probably would have been a highly speculative transfer.

Well, to me it looked like there was a bit of hype around that transfer, but looking at the facts I think you are right.

 

[do.ob]

We are crying out for a left back to give us an alternative to Bakker. We were close to signing Gosens last summer, fell through. A few days ago close to signing Fran Garcia, fell through (admittedly not Rolfes' fault). Then on deadline day he decides to offer Stuttgart a ridiculous 10 million for Sosa, does the Pikachu face when they reject it and just gives up. It's obvious he knows we need a left back but he cant sign one. Instead we signed two teenage central midfielders, a position where we are absolutely stacked in quantity and arguably in quality as well. And on top of that we sold Sertdemir to Denmark, the second big talent after Bravo that was acquired and sold again before he even gets a chance in the first team. Not a good look in general.

Edit: How is the season over for us? It is majorly important if we play european football next season or not.

I think the gulf in points is just too huge. Union (12), Freiburg (10), Frankfurt (8), it would take a (moderate) implosion from one of those teams and a fairly strong performance by Leverkusen at the same time. Even getting to Wolfsburg can't be taken for granted. So I don't think this is a situation where you sign someone, you don't fully believe in, or overpay a little extra on fees, because you hope it'll change the outcome of your season.

Sertdemir's case looks like he got home-sick. I mean he didn't make a sidewards or upwards step, he went back to Denmark.

Signing some kids for cheap shouldn't be viewed from a short term perspective either and I also find it debatable to call Leverkusen's CM stacked in either quality or quantity.

So everything considered I don't think anything strange happened this window and I say that as someone, who - in general - is critical of Leverkusen's transfer strategy.

 

[GhastlyHun]

The one and only Choupo goating!

 

[BayernFan87]

Cancelo already with more good passes and crosses than Davies and Coman all season lul

 

[GhastlyHun]

Musiala

 

[BayernFan87]

Jamaaaaaal <3

 

[Piratesoup]

Can we pay than 70mil more for Cancelo?

 

[BayernFan87]

Who needs Kane when he has Choupo?

 

[hasanejaz88]

Whose assist was better, Cancelo or Choupo Goating?

 

[GhastlyHun]

Whose assist was better, Cancelo or Choupo Goating?

No one can stand against Choupo!

But also unironically, his was just very very sexy.

 

[Acrobat7]

No one can stand against Choupo!

But also unironically, his was just very very sexy.

That cross from Cancelo was really filthy though!

 

[Nick7]

Was Sabitzer holding Bayern back?

 

[GhastlyHun]

Was Sabitzer holding Bayern back?

Didn't even make United's bench tonight!