How accurate is transfer gossip? The BBC has the answer.

Badunk

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The BBC website has published more than 5,000 gossip columns since it first appeared in 2002

Since its first appearance in 2002, the gossip column has consistently ranked as one of the most-read pages on the BBC website.

In the most recent transfer window, it averaged almost one million browsers per day. But can you believe a word you read in it?

To mark the 15th anniversary of its introduction, we have looked back at every gossip column from the summer transfer window to see how accurate the rumours were, whether stories about some clubs proved more reliable than others and to discover which sources were the most trustworthy.

How many rumours become reality?
Of the almost 800 rumours reported in the gossip column throughout July and August, just over one in three of them materialised as a transfer.

Are rumours more accurate about certain clubs?
How do you judge whether a rumour is accurate or not?

Plenty of stories will have been rooted in fact at the time of reporting, only to fall through for any number of unforeseeable reasons.

But taking an accurate rumour as being one where that transfer actually went through, stories about Manchester City were more accurate than ones about any other side (counting only teams who were mentioned at least 10 times).

And while one in three rumours are accurate overall, the success rate varies wildly by club.

When you include every Premier League team regardless of the number of times they featured, Bournemouth come out on top.

Of course, the sources we use tend to focus mainly on the bigger clubs, meaning they are mentioned more regularly. And it is worth pointing out the gossip column is manually curated each day by a BBC journalist, so choices are made about which stories to include and which ones to leave out.

One reason why Bournemouth and Burnley come out on top is that they are rarely mentioned, so the quality of the rumours when they do appear tend to be high.

There were only three entries about the Cherries, linking them with Brad Smith, Jordon Ibe and Lewis Cook. All of those deals came off.

Who is talked about the most?
Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea, three of the bottom four when it comes to the number of accurate rumours written about them, are three of the five most-featured clubs.

And while it is no surprise the biggest teams generate the most stories, there is also another factor that drives the rumour mill - the presence of a new manager.

The top four most-mentioned clubs all had new bosses last summer.

What kind of players are clubs linked with?
There's good news if you're a midfielder...

...who is aged 23...

...and English.

Or, in other words, if your name is Ross Barkley.

Where they play and where they're from
Despite extensive global scouting networks, Premier League to Premier League transfers are reported significantly more than deals between clubs in the Premier League and those in any other league.

Outside of Britain and mainland Europe, Brazilian players were the most sought after according to the gossip column, while Senegal just edged out Ivory Coast as the leading African nation.


Which is the most reliable source?
In the two months of the summer window, 41 different media outlets featured in the 62 gossip columns.

And based on whether a deal that was reported actually went through, the most reliable transfer source was the Guardian.

But while the Guardian comes out on top, newspapers - the traditional bedrock of the gossip column - were not the most reliable source.

Non-newspaper websites - the likes of Sky Sports, Goal and ESPN, among others - actually proved to be the best place to go for accurate transfer stories.

Non-newspaper websites would not have featured in the early days of the gossip column - back then it consisted entirely of newspaper stories. However, they are now among the most popular - and trusted - news outlets around.

When looking only at newspapers, it is the broadsheets that dominate.

And finally... ones to watch in January?
So what can we expect to see in the January transfer window?

Thankfully, there is unlikely to be much speculation about Paul Pogba, whose 27 gossip column appearances made him the most talked about player of last summer before his protracted world record £89m transfer to Manchester United was finally completed.

Everton striker Romelu Lukaku was rumoured as being on his way to Chelsea 14 times - the most frequently mentioned deal of the last window that did not happen. If there is no smoke without fire, could it be the one to watch this January?

And what about other players who could be on the move? Here's our XI of the most talked about players of the last window who, ultimately, stayed where they were.


You can keep up to date with all the latest rumours by reading the gossip column every day.
 
If you click on the link, you can see the bar and pie charts. They wouldn't copy and paste for me.
 
I suggested us all doing a research experiment on this issue (What percentage of transfer gossip materialises) a couple of summers back and got pretty much laughed off the caf.
 
So 1 in 3 come to fruition and the BBC gossip column only reports half reliable sources in the first place. Better than I expected though.
 
Interesting read.

However, a rumour can still be true even if a transfer doesn't materialise. It just means negotiations or fees weren't agreed.

Also, no surprise Everton lead the way on the BS count. Never has a club used transfer rumours as a means of placating disquiet more than Everton. They use such non-news as if it were a trophy. The folks on Grand Old Team were celebrating at being linked to Mata as if it signaled new intent.

Even this season, the day after their derby defeat, they announced Lukaku's new contract. Deliberately timed for after the game to leave the club with a 'positive' distraction should the result go against them.
 
Just because they don't materialize doesn't mean they're not true though. A find example is Moyes wanting Ronaldo, Bale and Kroos.

There's too much money in football now a days and with social media it makes it almost impossible to get a deal done under the radar. Although 50% of transfers are probably clickbait now a days, purely fabricated to drive up ad revenue.
 
This is just based on the last summer window. I hope they would also do another go with a longer data series. But 1/3 is terrific result, given that the probability of a club actually signing a transfer target can't be more than 50-60%. I will pay more attention to BBC rumours from now on - especially those from the Guardian.
 
The transfer market can charge so quickly, which is why any journo worth their salt will always hesitate to give a definitive answer to which player is going where. Remember Willian? Chelsea pretty much hijacked Spurs who had already planned his medical. Club sources are also subject to what message the club wants to send out to whatever end they want to achieve e.g. unsettling a player or to jack up asking price.

I used to be a transfer muppet but I've learnt to just wait for official club announcements. Not to say that Caf muppet threads aren't fun to read. The Pogba era was glorious.
 
1 in 3 is a much better rate than I would have thought
 
1 in 3 is pretty decent. Thought it would be something like 1 in 20.
 
Interesting read.

However, a rumour can still be true even if a transfer doesn't materialise. It just means negotiations or fees weren't agreed.

Also, no surprise Everton lead the way on the BS count. Never has a club used transfer rumours as a means of placating disquiet more than Everton. They use such non-news as if it were a trophy. The folks on Grand Old Team were celebrating at being linked to Mata as if it signaled new intent.

Or maybe they aim high and then settle for what they can get, also you get agents/ clubs leaking stories to generate interest (see any Real Madrid player looking a new contract and United). Everton are in this rumour bullshit sweet spot were they have a decentish amount of money so it's not unrealistic that Player X could go there and they could afford them but also that they probably don't have a better player in their team in that position.

Take the Mata story, not that crazy for him to go there, they could probably afford him, he would easily be their best player. Now look up and down the table, everyone from Everton down, probably couldn't afford the cost, everywhere up probably doesn't need him.

It's a nice article but it can never be that accurate with it's, transfer happened therefore all stories are justified isn't accurate, like if you did a signal to noise on Pogba I'm sure 83% of it was utter horseshit despite the fact that it actually happened.
 
Who is the most reliable Twitter person? Is it that Dimarsio or however one spells his name?
 
Last scoop by English newspapers about transfers has been Ardiles to Totthenham 1978.

After that nothing, the nothing, nothing in 39 years.