How close are Newcastle to a title challenge?

jesperjaap

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Theyve got a decent first eleven, not a strong squad and a re much further away than we are. They have deserved a champions league spot this season, they have over performed though and things have generally gone there way this season.

As for where they are next season, we will have no idea until next summer as bar CIty, I think every side is looking to seriously strengthen be it 2/3 big signings or in numbers....but personally I dont see the top four being the same four teams as it is this season
 

the_box

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They're the exact same side really, just lucky to have a couple number 9's in good form, they had like 30% possession against Brighton, they play like a Mourinho or Simeone side.
That's just patently false. Majority of games we're in the 60%+ possession range.
 

Crashoutcassius

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It really depends how they spend in the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fell away next year as Howe adapts to a 2 game a week schedule.

It’s a different beast when you can’t give your players a rest, have a couple of days coaching and a couple of days prepping for almost every EPL game.
Absolutely this. Top four is far more straight forward with 1 game a week
 

Skills

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Barring a city/psg-esque spree - which everyone seems to think is a given but I don't - it'll take more than a few seasons.3-4 years, minimum.

The issues are that we 1) don't have great quality in depth and 2) some of our best XI now - Trippier, Schar, Wilson, ASM, Almiron - will start to see age and injury take their toll as well, and will need to be addressed.
Liverpool challenged on all fronts without depth - depth is overrated in a single season.
 

Skills

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Understat has them:

2nd for xPts
3rd for xG
2nd for xGA

Those numbers are impressive. I'd say they've got very obvious ways of improving their starting XI quite cheaply as well - Maddison coming into their midfield next summer will be massive.
 

Cloud7

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They are quite far I think, but that's more down to Pep's city than anything else. You have to have one hell of a team, and be near perfect over the course of the season, to win the league title over them. I can't see Newcastle getting to that point in a rush.
 

Fitchett

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Quite a way off. It's one thing being hard to beat, and drawing matches. It's much harder to go on long winning runs.
 

Zen86

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All this matters less r you need a generational manager to push City till the end, the problem is there aren't many out there, maybe De Zerbi proves to be in time, but i can see him staying at Brighton for at least another couple years.
Mancini did it the season after City broke into the top 4 for the first time.

Newcastle are slightly less mature, but don’t take them for granted. Bottomless cash and a proper transformational business plan gets results.
 

pocco

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Not close because City under Pep are just too good really. They play very good football though, better than us I'd say with a worse team. Logic would suggest that if they get better players and continue to buy well, then they'll be a very good side in their own right. They've handed out some beatings to teams this season, they're aggressive off the ball and good on the ball.

I'll hold my hand up and say I thought Howe wouldn't do a thing there and was just going to be a stop gap. But he's done an amazing job since the very first day. The more I think about it, he'd probably be my manager of the season for what he's achieved. Like arsenal, they're way ahead of where they should be at this stage of their development as a team.
 

Abraxas

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I think they're miles off. Both the first XI and especially the squad.

I actually think they need a lot of work this summer to handle the demands of the CL and the league. It could be a tricky transition for them. Usually clubs that are new to that grind struggle a bit.

I think some of those players overperformed their baseline career performances too. It's not a given all will stay at that level.
 

KeanoMagicHat

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They need to buy a higher calibre of player. Isak is good but City meant business I felt when they signed David Silva and Yaya Touré at their peak. That was the game changer for the whole PL.
 

TheRedHearted

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Well, Arsenal were laughed at by many, finished fifth and I thought with some tweaking they could be dangerous. Didn’t even think they wouod be as close as they got at all. I think people forget how the right tweaks can make a team click. Now arsenal didn’t win but they could have, technically. Maybe with a better winter window? I haven’t dissected their transfers but seemed to be fine.


that being said if Newcastle are going for grit and building on that, some talented attackers could make them a little like Liverpool when they were better, of course without Kloppy. Is Nagelssmann the mann?
They'll replace Howe before they win a title. He's not fashionable enough and more importantly, they're dreadful to watch.
Always said this, doesn’t mean he’s losing it tomorrow but I think he could even. Since the project just stepped up a notch. Let him take the England job anyway.

I think their squad isn't well-suited to a dominant attacking style which is required to challenge City. So they'll need to rebuild a lot to take the next step instead of simply continuing to progress in a linear fashion. It's an interesting conundrum — I think they're more likely to keep the current model and improve on it, which will probably secure them a top-4 spot but won't allow them to challenge; but to challenge they'd need to rethink everything including asking someone like Nagelsmann in... which is an objectively bad extremely risky decision to say the least.
Sounds like their building more anti City, almost like Mourinho did?
They won't be able to spend much this summer, so I'd imagine they'd be happy consolidating a Champions League place next season considering they are ahead of schedule already.

I'd say they are a good 8 years away from genuinely challenging for the title, City are head and shoulders above Newcastle, United will hopefully be more competitive next season, Liverpool and Chelsea will improve.
But that's assuming Newcastle get every decision from here spot on. Any mistakes in the transfer market or trigger happy decisions regarding the manager and they'll be two steps back.
How much can they spend?
Do we believe Pep is trying to come for sir Alex’s record? Would he spend another 20 years at city? What kind of dirt do they have on him?

no but really, Nagelsmann could be a step in the right direction but that’s opposite the model they have now isn’t it? That’s a complete rebuild. Who else?
De zarbi?

conte? Seemed offended with Tottenham’s constraints.

My main point is I wouldn’t be surprised if a strong transfer window gets them looking pretty dangerous. Also wouldn’t be surprised if it is a miss.
 

L. Robert

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Anyone saying we play ugly or boring football has clearly not watched us at all and makes me wonder why they feel the need to voice their opinion. Brighton may have had 66% possession but it was in their own box, no one who watched that game could draw parallels to Simeone's Atletico. Howe is the obvious manager of the year and he'll be here for a long time.

Title challenge is years and years away but that's due to Pep and Man City, would say the same about any other team in the PL. I'm expecting a CL spot challenge every season from now on but no one can beat City without something drastic happening like a massive points deduction or Pep getting bored and his successor failing.
 

MassVolto

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Howe is deffo manager of the year the way he has transformed players like Joelinton, Almiron, Murphy and Willoch who all used to bang average is quite impressive.
 

GoonerBear

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The bookies having Newcastle down as 2nd favourites for next seasons title is a bit ridiculous.

Liverpool will still have a better chance at the title than Newcastle.
Came on to say this as well. Had Talksport on on the way home from work and they had a bookie on giving the title odds for next year and they said that currently Newcastle were 2nd favourites.

Shocked both the presenters and myself listening. Not that I think there's much between the chasing pack, but I too thought that Liverpool would have been 2nd favourites again to be honest.
 

Siorac

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That's just patently false. Majority of games we're in the 60%+ possession range.
Your average possession this season is 51.9%. 7th in the league, behind 'sucks at ball retention' Manchester United.
 

Champ

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Mancini did it the season after City broke into the top 4 for the first time.

Newcastle are slightly less mature, but don’t take them for granted. Bottomless cash and a proper transformational business plan gets results.
They don't have bottomless cash though, that's a myth, at least not to spend anyhow.

They are heavily restricted by FFP, and unless they increase their sponsorship income threefold this season alone they will be hampered by FFP to a spend of around £80m and with no major assets to sell I'd expect it to stay at that figure.
 

ROFLUTION

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They'll replace Howe before they win a title. He's not fashionable enough and more importantly, they're dreadful to watch.
Dreadful? Maybe against Arsenal yes, but they have at times been playing some wonderful and direct football. Their first game against City (3-3), West Ham (5-1) Tottenham (6-1) stands out.

I hate every aspect of their shallow way of running a club, but I wouldnt call them dreadful. They're solid at the back, so maybe that's why some people see them as dreadful. But Schär kan play it out and arrive at dead balls, Trippier can cross, so it's not just a boring defence imo.

But somehow they have the same aura of Mourinho's team in his first years where they could also shut up shop and play boring against the big ones, but then turn on the style against lesser teams.
 

Zen86

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They don't have bottomless cash though, that's a myth, at least not to spend anyhow.

They are heavily restricted by FFP, and unless they increase their sponsorship income threefold this season alone they will be hampered by FFP to a spend of around £80m and with no major assets to sell I'd expect it to stay at that figure.
I think we all know how creative the oil states are when it comes to accounting.
 

Traub

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Came on to say this as well. Had Talksport on on the way home from work and they had a bookie on giving the title odds for next year and they said that currently Newcastle were 2nd favourites.

Shocked both the presenters and myself listening. Not that I think there's much between the chasing pack, but I too thought that Liverpool would have been 2nd favourites again to be honest.
Surely this is just down to betting patterns as opposed to likelihood. I can imagine the Newcastle supporters putting their house on a title win next season.
 

Champ

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I think we all know how creative the oil states are when it comes to accounting.
True, but the scrutiny on them is higher now than it ever way under City, plus Howe has already stressed that FFP will hinder them moving forward.
 

Zen86

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True, but the scrutiny on them is higher now than it ever way under City, plus Howe has already stressed that FFP will hinder them moving forward.
The scrutiny was always on City, they just didn’t give a toss or found ways to circumvent it. SA will do the same, silly sponsorship deals and the like.
 

Champ

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The scrutiny was always on City, they just didn’t give a toss or found ways to circumvent it. SA will do the same, silly sponsorship deals and the like.
Newcastle have spent upwards of £200m on their 'commercial' team/backroom members, but Ashworth, Howe and the owners have all mentioned being restricted by FFP at some point this season,
so would be very suspicious and draw undue attention to themselves should they start spending massively beyond their FFP means.
 

SilentWitness

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This season they're 7 to 8 wins off a team that has been competing on all fronts domestically and in europe. Newcastle only had domestic competition to worry about.

Howe has done a fantastic job but it's a different beast when you start to include european football. They have a good first xi for the challenge but the squad is still too thin to compete at a high level on all fronts and they're still running on adrenaline slightly too. I think another top 4 finish would be an excellent achievement but a title challenge is 3 to 5 years off.
 

Zen86

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Newcastle have spent upwards of £200m on their 'commercial' team/backroom members, but Ashworth, Howe and the owners have all mentioned being restricted by FFP at some point this season,
so would be very suspicious and draw undue attention to themselves should they start spending massively beyond their FFP means.
It could go either way, but I wouldn't put much stock in what they say. Even City now still continue to play the hard-done-by underdog card.
 

Karel Podolsky

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They need to buy a higher calibre of player. Isak is good but City meant business I felt when they signed David Silva and Yaya Touré at their peak. That was the game changer for the whole PL.
Aguero (Kane, Osimhen)
Yaya Toure (Frankie d Jonk, Veratti, Kimmich, > Tchoumeni, Camavinga, Caceido, Rabiot )
D. Silva (Kvaratshelia).
 

caid

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I think they're miles off. The gap between finishing in the top 4 (with 1 game a week) and finishing top of the league is wide. Dont think most of their players are actually good enough to win the league either. Same with Howe, dont think you can shithouse your way to a league title - too many draws, too many hard fought battles. Others will go 2 goals up in the first 20 minutes and play the rest of the game at walking pace against teams terrified to play them.
I think were miles off but 3 or 4 players ahead of them and have a coach who can compete.
 

Nick7

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Need to see how they do with 2 games every week. That can be the breaking point for teams.
 

GlasgowCeltic

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guess they could look at it as a positive that the positions they need to improve are so obvious due to how good the recruitment has largely been so far. Need 8s and wide players, and an actual left back although the defence is solid. Two wide players + Tierney and Maddison would be a good window I think
 

Skills

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Need to see how they do with 2 games every week. That can be the breaking point for teams.
It won't be too different to this season. The schedule was heavily compressed because of the WC.
 

Champ

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.s...-deal-with-saudi-events-company-sela-12887474

For reference their current deal is worth circa £10m a year. There's huge room there before they get scrutinised for validation.
The fact that they already had a shirt sponsorship lined up for £25m suggests that anything above and beyond that figure for this one would be heavily scrutinized and probably would have to be renegotiated.

They do also have deals with a Saudi airline, which will bring in an extra £7m a year, but that's still someway off the cash required to allow a heavy net spend this summer.
 

Skills

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The fact that they already had a shirt sponsorship lined up for £25m suggests that anything above and beyond that figure for this one would be heavily scrutinized and probably would have to be renegotiated.

They do also have deals with a Saudi airline, which will bring in an extra £7m a year, but that's still someway off the cash required to allow a heavy net spend this summer.
The deals will be short term because of the sort of trajectory they're on. Signing a 2 year deal for £25m a year gives them more room than they have now, before they inevitably start hitting those bigger numbers.
 

Champ

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The deals will be short term because of the sort of trajectory they're on. Signing a 2 year deal for £25m a year gives them more room than they have now, before they inevitably start hitting those bigger numbers.
Maybe, I'd imagine a three year deal would be what's agreed, but even so £25m is a lowball figure really in comparison to several other clubs.

The bigger deals will depend on the success they get, as again the scrutiny will be harsh should they finish outside the top six yet end up signing a bigger deal.
 

L. Robert

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Your average possession this season is 51.9%. 7th in the league, behind 'sucks at ball retention' Manchester United.
https://markstats.club/epl-teams-22-23/

NUFC have fifth highest defensive line (46.69) while MUFC are 16th (42.29) only above Forest, Everton, Bournemouth and Wolves. Newcastle fifth in field tilt % (59.77) while Man United are seventh (53.35).

I maintain that anyone saying NUFC play like Mourinho or Simeone side has only watched us couple of times and those were away to big teams. Ten Hag's Man United is way closer to a team like that, sitting deep and hoping to nick it with some Rashford or Bruno magic.
 

Amarsdd

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Usually when teams have this meteoric rise, we’ll only know if they can sustain it when they have to regularly play midweek games. Newcastle is a slightly different case given the finances they have now, but still the same applies to them to some extent. If they can finish in CL places next season, then I’ll start taking them very seriously as a possible title contenders in the next 3-4 years.