How good are you at assessing the potential of young players?

[NicolaSacco]

I was looking at the Iqbal thread earlier and it’s very black and white. Up until the first transfer rumour came out in June, almost every post about him was encouraging him to be given first team minutes (and a few more extreme ones saying “well he can’t be worse than player X or player Y”). Since he’s left it seems that the board consensus has changed to accepting that he wasn’t good enough to make it.

Do you think there’s an element of wishful thinking going on? Or is it more a case that fans want to be seen to support the manager and the club, and that includes supporting the manager’s decisions, buying and selling.

 

[Drainy]

I think we're all terrible, to be honest

 

[Bastian]

I think with Iqbal we saw him do that feint turn under pressure and play himself out of trouble while we all knew that McTominay has no technical level to and Fred is either very good or dreadful and Donny is invisible, so most thought what's the harm in trying him out. I'm not sure anyone thought he was exactly what we needed.

Another thing was last summer when ETH was chasing de Jong he said if he couldn't get that profile of player he might develop that kind of player from one at the club, which seemed to most (definitely myself) to suggest either Iqbal or Mejbri. He subsequently went on to play Mejbri in pre-season as a false nine which was a pointless exercise so he didn't really get a chance to showcase what he could do, while Iqbal played midfield.

It normally goes hand in hand with the positions where we are lacking quality. No one is waiting for a youth to replace Rashford or Bruno.

 

[careca07]

The famous Harry Redknapp press conference where a West Ham fan tells him that Frank Lampard will never make it as a player (while Lampard is sitting there) is always a good reminder of the difference between armchair/internet fans judging young players versus actual football people seeing them every day in training.

Plus I remember Beckham’s first season for us and thinking he was absolutely dreadful and would never amount to anything.

That said it’s probably a sad indictment of our academy that there have been so few exciting young players emerge that make you think “yeah he definitely could be a starter in a few years time”, Garnacho probably the exception

 

[Drizzle]

I suppose I'm older than many here so that gives a wider perspective on what type of player makes it. But obviously I get it wrong quite often too. There's no formula, and there are so many variables it's impossible to predict 100%.

Do you think there’s an element of wishful thinking going on?

This, however, is absolutely the case. These days, a young player just has to do one nice skill, it's then boosted a million times over twitter, and within days you're being told that e.g. Iqbal is world class because he did a Maradona turn against FC Nobody in a friendly.

Garner was another example. Anyone who actually watched him a few times could see he was a decent player but nothing special. Yes, factor in some development, but he's never going to be a first team player at United. Sell him, move on, stop moaning.

Current example is Pellistri. Yet again, simply never going to make it at United. If we can get £10m then move him on.

 

[vodrake]

I think we're all pretty terrible if we're honest with ourselves. You can look at the threads of almost every ex academy player currently having a pretty average career in the lower divisions and there will be at least some people who were claiming they would become world class and we will regret letting them leave as we'll have to buy them back for 100m in a few years time

There's just so many factors that go in to how successful a youth player will be that it's very hard to predict anyones career at that age, and once you add in bias and wishful thinking about your own teams players it makes the problem even more exaggerated.

 

[harms]

I'm great at assessing it, they're not great at fulfilling it

 

[bosnian_red]

Every fan overrates the young players within their own club, when in reality you only ever get like 1 player turning into a potentially important player every few years, a few who stay as squad players who are either decent at it or just kept on far too long, and the rest are sold off.

Guys like Shoretire, Hannibal, Laird, Garner, etc... We had Greenwood who fecked it, Garnacho looks like a future star, Amad has big potential but might never be more than a squad player or he might just be sold. If the talent doesn't fit the manager, squad needs, the league... Might as well sell for big money.

 

[Bubz27]

I'm brilliant. I saw Antonio Valencia at the 2006 WC and said we'd sign him one day and lo and behold, we did. Impossible to argue against that.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think we're all terrible, to be honest

This.

Probably the single biggest gap on the caf between perceived expertise and reality.

Plus there’s the fact that youngsters don’t develop in a linear manner. And loads of kids never fulfil their potential for reasons that none of us are privy too.

 

[Drainy]

I think we're all pretty terrible if we're honest with ourselves. You can look at the threads of almost every ex acadamy player currently having a pretty average career in the lower divisions and there will be at least some people who were claiming they would become world class and we will regret letting them leave as we'll have to buy them back for 100m in a few years time

There's just so many factors that go in to how successful a youth player will be that it's very hard to predict anyones career, and once you add in bias and wishful thinking about your own teams players it makes the problem even more exaggerated.

That's the fun and beauty of football. We are all wrong most of the time but should embrace that and have fun along the way.

 

[NicolaSacco]

I remember absolutely raving to my big-club supporting mates when we sold Titus Bramble to Newcastle, and Richard Wright to Arsenal. I guaranteed to them that they would be England’s first choice GK and CB for the next decade. Ahem..

 

[No Love]

I think we're all terrible, to be honest

Speak for yourself…

@LuckyScout78

 

[OverratedOpinion]

Awful.

I think most people who watch a lot of football can assess the absolute best young players fairly easily. There are just some attributes that will transfer to senior football. Those on the borderline though it's totally hit and miss.

I would have bet huge money on Adnan Januzaj being a top class player, I thought Danny Welbeck would go on to be pretty special, I saw nothing I really liked about Harry Kane at first, loads more examples that I can't remember right now.

 

[Alan Partridge]

I’ve noticed fans typically overrate players who aren’t actually playing. Like when Martial was injured everyone seemed convinced he’d return and be the perfect striker we sorely lacked. Another example is all the people crying out for game time for Donny at one period.

 

[Scandi Red]

The trick is to almost never get carried away and only reserve your praise for those who seem truly special. I got hyped by some early clips from Ødegaard and Kubo and both became successful. As for United players, there is a certain player who shan't be named who I got sold on very early in his first team days. It's hard to tell how far he would (?) have gone, but for me he had a very special talent.

But to make it clear: if I had to make multiple predictions per year rather than a prediction once in a blue moon like I do now, then I would be wrong at least 90% of the time.

 

[NotoriousISSY]

Horrendous. I thought MG was a good level headed kid and I was also convinced James Garner was going to become the modern day Michael Carrick.

I do think fans are a lot better at judging established players than given credit for. You'll get called out for being overly harsh on the likes of Maguire, De Gea and other similarly poorly performing players who whilst good solid players, are simply not built to be brilliant in the 'modern game'. You usually don't even need stats to tell you this, the eye test is usually sufficient.

 

[Zoo]

Maybe we misjudge the physicality. Iqbal impressed in the slower paced preseason games but Ten Hag and his staff would have seen him every day in the higher level of training.

 

[NicolaSacco]

The famous Harry Redknapp press conference where a West Ham fan tells him that Frank Lampard will never make it as a player (while Lampard is sitting there) is always a good reminder of the difference between armchair/internet fans judging young players versus actual football people seeing them every day in training.

Plus I remember Beckham’s first season for us and thinking he was absolutely dreadful and would never amount to anything.

That said it’s probably a sad indictment of our academy that there have been so few exciting young players emerge that make you think “yeah he definitely could be a starter in a few years time”, Garnacho probably the exception

That was great, and Redknapp named two other Hammers youth team midfielders, one of whom was Matt Holland of Ipswich and Ireland fame, and the other was some guy called Scott something, who ended up playing non-league mostly. And Redknapp successfully predicted both of those career trajectories as well as Lampard’s, despite them all being teenagers at the time. Legendary press conference.

 

[hobbers]

Assume they're all shite and you wont go far wrong. For every Garnacho there are 20 Elangas.

Countless numbers of youngsters we've had on the outskirts of the first team who got massively overhyped and vanished into the ether, Iqbal and Mainoo the latest. Best midfielder we've produced in the last two decades is McTominay, and the second best probably Pereira. Says it all.

Similar story with defenders. Best we've done there probably Michael Keane.

 

[pacifictheme]

Anyone who doesn't watch the youth / reserve games (me included) has no real business carping on about the youth players really.

Yes it's wishful thinking. I always want the young players to succeed and for that they need minutes so I will always likely be one of those saying give x a chance. I love it when a youth team player breaks through, had a lot of my hopes for United for the next decade pinned on greenwood two years ago.

 

[pacifictheme]

Assume they're all shite and you wont go far wrong. For every Garnacho there are 20 Elangas.

Countless numbers of youngsters we've had on the outskirts of the first team who got massively overhyped and vanished into the ether, Iqbal and Mainoo the latest. Best midfielder we've produced in the last two decades is McTominay, and the second best probably Pereira. Says it all.

Similar story with defenders. Best we've done there probably Michael Keane.

Pogba is the best midfielder we produced in the last two decades.

 

[gormless]

I would have bet my house on Rossi being the next big thing.

 

[Laurencio]

I would have bet my house on Rossi being the next big thing.

I had him and Pique picked out as the two to make it in that youth team - at least I was right about one.

I'm still surprised Rossi didn't make it

 

[hobbers]

Pogba is the best midfielder we produced in the last two decades.

I was thinking more academy graduates but forgot Pereira was signed at 16 same as Pogba.

 

[11101]

Well I knew Messi was going to be handy from day one. I've got a great eye for talents like that. I also spotted fat and thin Ronaldos at a young age.

I can also tell you the ones who will never make it like Ethan Galbraith or James Wilson.

It's the million players in between I struggle with. I think anybody who is not working in the game does. By 16 or 17 its easy to see who is never going to be good enough, but there is a very fine margin between somebody like Rashford and a player like Januzaj. Both had brilliant careers by almost all measures, but only one has really made it. Could anybody have seen that at 16?

 

[Stobzilla]

We see 90-180 minutes out of the full week. All the important stuff with regards to development and potential happens on the training pitch and in that particular players head. For fans it is just part of the fun.

 

[BerryBerryShrew]

I would have bet my house on Rossi being the next big thing.

I had him and Pique picked out as the two to make it in that youth team - at least I was right about one.

I'm still surprised Rossi didn't make it

Injuries fecked Rossi over though. He still was a very good player in spite of this. He may have even been world class if not for the injuries.

 

[Skills]

Potential is hard to evaluate. We all underrate some aspects and overrate other aspects because of our own preferences and biases.

 

[Oranges038]

Utd players - no, usually you know academy players are not going to make it, but you'd like to see them being given a chance at least to show what they are capable of. You might tend to over estimate their ability.

Outside of Utd, I remember seeing Ozil and Griezmann play some youth tournaments years ago (separate ones) and said to myself they was going to be special. I was right about those two.



.

 

[Carl]

Our youth prospects are always hyped through the roof by our fanbase. I'm sure it's probably normal though.

As for my personal judge of potential, I've never recovered from Barry Bannan, who I thought was gunna be outstanding.

 

[Bilbo]

People put far too much stock in pre season games. That's the issue

 

[miked99]

I had him and Pique picked out as the two to make it in that youth team - at least I was right about one.

I'm still surprised Rossi didn't make it

Rossi definitely made it! He was a fantastic player, I was gutted when we sold him, but it was a bit of a Pique situation where it's clear they're a great prospect but there's too much competition.

He scored 32 goals in a season for Villareal but his career was savaged by injuries. Only 15 appearances across the next three full seasons following that. Then 17 goals in 24 games for Fiorentina in Serie A, followed by only 17 appearances in three years. So sad what happened to him.

 

[Borninthe80ts]

To me it a two part question. Can I assess which traits from a young player that can be developed. Somewhat.... ish

But can I predict which ones will make it? Can I f$@k! The one that I thought would be certain based on pure talent have left the club, and Scotty T is still here, though maybe not for long. I will say I’m willing to give players I rate more morea bit longer than most. Talent dependent of course.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I think we as United fans are the worst of all fanbases, there's a class of 92 hope that never dies in us and we can't help but overrate pretty much all of our younger players.

 

[Champ]

There's a few posters on here who reckon they have superior footballing knowledge and claim to know who's going to make it and who isn't.
They base these opinions on a few youth games, a few pre season friendlies and their own feelings.
The issue is no one really gets to see these players on training on a day to day basis, they don't get to see how dedicated they are to their diets, their off ground training routine, their behaviour in and around the club etc.

So realistically it's incredibly hard for the average Caf member to be able to claim that a player is going to make it or not, despite what certain members claim.

 

[quadrant]

Firstly, most people are dreadful with youth players because they barely get chance to watch these players and have to judge based on highights. Then they're additionally dreadful because united bias means we rarely look at our own players the way that we look at those from other teams, either over- or under-estimating their abilities.

But what's also true is that, to a certain degree, its completely unknowable how people will develop anyway. So much of football is about the mental side of the game. Some players fold when they hit the big time, others thrive.

Rashford looked good at youth level, but I would never have him pegged as a first teamer at United by his 20s. Then you have players like James Wilson who seemed to glide through youth level like a rolls royce, but then when he reached adulthood just didn't have what it took.

 

[RedRonaldo]

Well if its generational talent (L.Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Rooney, Messi, Neymar, Mbappe, Haaland etc) I think its not difficult for many to see even during their young formative teenage years.

The tricky part is the rest of the youngsters, to which admittedly I am not very good at assessing....there were some hits throughout the years of course, but most of the time they are miss, plenty of miss I should say.

 

[Erictheking7]

Pogba is the best midfielder we produced in the last two decades.

I was thinking more academy graduates but forgot Pereira was signed at 16 same as Pogba.

I remember telling a mate that Pogba would be world class and a future French captain when I first watched him in the youth.

 

[Chesterlestreet]

Generally terrible.

I tend to overrate anyone who looks half decent at first glance.

I usually don't write anyone completely off, though, so there are a few examples over the years where I have been "proven right" in the sense that I refused to declare the player a lost cause (like Fletcher, for instance).