We're close enough to the end of the season now that it's meaningful to start having a serious opinion about how the PL will end up, taking into consideration form and remaining schedule for the various teams. So what do you all think?
This is my guess:
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Leicester
4. Chelsea
5. Liverpool
6. Everton
7. West Ham
8. Tottenham
9. Arsenal
10. Aston Villa
11. Leeds
12. Wolves
13. Southampton
14. Crystal Palace
15. Burnley
16. Brighton
17. Newcastle
18. Fulham
19. West Bromwich
20. Sheffield United
City as champions is a done deal. No reason why they shouldn't break the 90 point-barrier.
I don't see anyone below realistically catching up with United, Leicester and Chelsea for the top 4, and our schedule is decidedly easier than Leicesters in particular - they have remaining games against ALL of the other top 4 teams, while we have only them. We have a pretty good chance to break the 80-point-barrier, which the Foxes will only have a sniff at if they win at least two of their three games against City, us and Chelsea (as well as all of their other remaining ones). Chelsea are five points behind Leicester, but they've not lost under Tuchel, and there's not really that much to separate them. They have City and Leicester left to play. They won't get to 80 points even if they win all of their remaining games.
Below the top 4, it looks like there'll be quite a fight for the EL places, between Tottenham, Everton, Liverpool and West Ham. That's so close you could put them in almost any order, but there are some notable factors that will impact. Liverpool has by, a considerable margin, the easiest remaining schedule among all teams in the league. In fact, they have only three games left against top half sides, and two of those are Arsenal and Aston Villa. If they are now back to anything remotely like their own selves (and early returns from re-inserting Fabinho in the midfield seem promising), then that's a cakewalk. The question of course if is they are. If they're still the team we've seen in the last few rounds, then they can well lose to anyone. And they have very little room for further slip-ups. Everton has a much tougher schedule, with 6 games left against top-half sides. Although they have a game in hand. For them, it seems more likely to come down to whether the margins go their way in games like Villa (twice), Arsenal and West Ham. West Ham has the most points of these four teams currently, but they have been unable to beat top teams all season, and they have remaining games against Leicester and Chelsea. On the other hand, they have five games against lower half teams (of whom none better than Southampton), which they are likely to win. Tottenham has been inconsistent, are seemingly mired in a dressing room semi-crisis, and have a fairly tough schedule - remaining games against us and Leicester, and just two games against weak teams (if we you'd consider Fulham to be that, Sheffield United is the other).
Arsenal at 9th is (other than City at 1st) the easiest top half prediction to make. They no longer have a realistic chance IMO of catching up with those above them, but should be fairly comfortably able to stave off those below. And that's even with a fairly benign schedule - just 3 games left against top half teams, and 4 against teams currently placed 16th or worse.
Villa has dropped too far behind, and are no longer seriously in the EL qualification picture I think. 7 of their remaining games are against top half sides, including us, Chelsea and City. There are really only 3 games left which they can be reasonably confident of being able to win (Fulham, West Brom, Palace). If they manage anything better than 10th, they'll have had an impressive late season.
Just below Villa, there's Leeds, Wolves, Palace and Southampton. Leeds at least have a chance of catching up with Villa. But while their schedule is easier than Villa's, it's not that easy (remaining games against us, Liverpool, Spurs and City), and Villa has a point on them plus a game in hand. Wolves are too far behind, and have a fair few tough games left (West Ham, Spurs, Everton, us). But they also have a run of 5 straight games against teams placed 16th or worse. I think they'll comfortably beat Southampton, who will find it hard to get their momentum going again with a schedule where stronger and weaker opponents alternate. They look better off than Palace though, who have a truly horrible remaining schedule - 8 games remaining against top half teams. They cannot confidently expect to take many more points than they already have, and look set to end up not much above the 40-point mark.
The next grouping would be Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle and Fulham, one of whom will go down. Of those, Burnley has the best schedule, Brighton the worst. But I'm pretty sure Fulham will be the ones to go down - there's just too much ground to make up, and too few games left where sufficient points are realistically feasible.
West Brom and Sheffield United are toast.
Let's see your predictions, and we'll know in a few weeks who got it right. First prize is getting to go out for a meal at your own expense once the lockdown is over, wearing a self-made hat with the inscription "Told you so, didn't I".
This is my guess:
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Leicester
4. Chelsea
5. Liverpool
6. Everton
7. West Ham
8. Tottenham
9. Arsenal
10. Aston Villa
11. Leeds
12. Wolves
13. Southampton
14. Crystal Palace
15. Burnley
16. Brighton
17. Newcastle
18. Fulham
19. West Bromwich
20. Sheffield United
City as champions is a done deal. No reason why they shouldn't break the 90 point-barrier.
I don't see anyone below realistically catching up with United, Leicester and Chelsea for the top 4, and our schedule is decidedly easier than Leicesters in particular - they have remaining games against ALL of the other top 4 teams, while we have only them. We have a pretty good chance to break the 80-point-barrier, which the Foxes will only have a sniff at if they win at least two of their three games against City, us and Chelsea (as well as all of their other remaining ones). Chelsea are five points behind Leicester, but they've not lost under Tuchel, and there's not really that much to separate them. They have City and Leicester left to play. They won't get to 80 points even if they win all of their remaining games.
Below the top 4, it looks like there'll be quite a fight for the EL places, between Tottenham, Everton, Liverpool and West Ham. That's so close you could put them in almost any order, but there are some notable factors that will impact. Liverpool has by, a considerable margin, the easiest remaining schedule among all teams in the league. In fact, they have only three games left against top half sides, and two of those are Arsenal and Aston Villa. If they are now back to anything remotely like their own selves (and early returns from re-inserting Fabinho in the midfield seem promising), then that's a cakewalk. The question of course if is they are. If they're still the team we've seen in the last few rounds, then they can well lose to anyone. And they have very little room for further slip-ups. Everton has a much tougher schedule, with 6 games left against top-half sides. Although they have a game in hand. For them, it seems more likely to come down to whether the margins go their way in games like Villa (twice), Arsenal and West Ham. West Ham has the most points of these four teams currently, but they have been unable to beat top teams all season, and they have remaining games against Leicester and Chelsea. On the other hand, they have five games against lower half teams (of whom none better than Southampton), which they are likely to win. Tottenham has been inconsistent, are seemingly mired in a dressing room semi-crisis, and have a fairly tough schedule - remaining games against us and Leicester, and just two games against weak teams (if we you'd consider Fulham to be that, Sheffield United is the other).
Arsenal at 9th is (other than City at 1st) the easiest top half prediction to make. They no longer have a realistic chance IMO of catching up with those above them, but should be fairly comfortably able to stave off those below. And that's even with a fairly benign schedule - just 3 games left against top half teams, and 4 against teams currently placed 16th or worse.
Villa has dropped too far behind, and are no longer seriously in the EL qualification picture I think. 7 of their remaining games are against top half sides, including us, Chelsea and City. There are really only 3 games left which they can be reasonably confident of being able to win (Fulham, West Brom, Palace). If they manage anything better than 10th, they'll have had an impressive late season.
Just below Villa, there's Leeds, Wolves, Palace and Southampton. Leeds at least have a chance of catching up with Villa. But while their schedule is easier than Villa's, it's not that easy (remaining games against us, Liverpool, Spurs and City), and Villa has a point on them plus a game in hand. Wolves are too far behind, and have a fair few tough games left (West Ham, Spurs, Everton, us). But they also have a run of 5 straight games against teams placed 16th or worse. I think they'll comfortably beat Southampton, who will find it hard to get their momentum going again with a schedule where stronger and weaker opponents alternate. They look better off than Palace though, who have a truly horrible remaining schedule - 8 games remaining against top half teams. They cannot confidently expect to take many more points than they already have, and look set to end up not much above the 40-point mark.
The next grouping would be Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle and Fulham, one of whom will go down. Of those, Burnley has the best schedule, Brighton the worst. But I'm pretty sure Fulham will be the ones to go down - there's just too much ground to make up, and too few games left where sufficient points are realistically feasible.
West Brom and Sheffield United are toast.
Let's see your predictions, and we'll know in a few weeks who got it right. First prize is getting to go out for a meal at your own expense once the lockdown is over, wearing a self-made hat with the inscription "Told you so, didn't I".
Thread killer response.
Also I wouldn't mind very much being wrong.