The first step is to acknowledge that while a system predicated on dominating transitions made sense for this squad, we have to concede the current set-up is flawed, and largely responsible for making every player in it play worse. Injuries have definitely contributed to this, but we looked shite in the first game of the season against Wolves, despite having virtually everyone available.
The 3-1-6 formation overwhelms and overloads the sole defensive midfielder, while creating a chasm of empty space between the midfield and forward line. It neither produces a potent attack nor offers any defensive stability. While I do believe we're much better at pressing this season, it appears to have come at the cost of every other facet of our performance.
Changes - Retain the positive strides made in terms of pressing while employing a more balanced system to stabilise the team. We played well in a traditional 4-2-3-1 system with a double pivot in midfield last year; recreate this but be far bolder on and off the ball.
Assuming everyone is fit, I would line up like this:
Onana
AWB - Varane - Martinez - Shaw
Casemiro - Mainoo
Antony - Fernandes - Rashford
Hojlund
This selection appears to largely mirror the consensus in this thread. The only contentious choices are potentially dropping Maguire and including Rashford. Perhaps arguments can be made for Mount (or Fernandes) playing on the right, instead of Antony, but I believe Antony gives us the most balance there, despite his obvious deficiencies.
The Varane-Martinez pairing gave us solidity last season as they combine very well, and I think the aim should be to replicate it as soon as possible. If people believe Maguire-Martinez would be better, it's no problem to substitute Maguire in, but I maintain Varane is our best central defender when fit (this is a
big if). Maguire's revival over the past two months is commendable though, considering the situation he was in during the summer.
Similarly, Rashford almost single-handedly carried our attack last year and his decline in performance has been mirrored by the team's this season. Garnacho has been a much better option than him over the past few months, but ultimately any chance of short-term success will be reliant upon Rashford regaining last year's form, as we simply lack any other credible source of goals. With Shaw re-installed behind him, and the creativity of Fernandes and Mainoo on his side of the pitch, hopefully Rashford will improve. He was rightly dropped though - his performances (and attitude) have been woeful.
Onana - His goalkeeping fundamentals are dreadful and if we could rewind the clock, I don't think there's a single person who would support the transfer (outside of Ten Hag), but here we are. The hope would be a more settled back four and more defensively sound midfield would lead to more consistent and confident performances. Feels a stretch at the moment though.
Wan-Bissaka - Simply a better choice than Dalot. Neither are good enough long-term, but in the short-term it's an easy pick.
Varane - Explained above. Can easily be switched to Maguire.
Martinez - A huge miss this season who will help the team defensively
and offensively on his return.
Shaw - Similar story to Martinez. Hopefully can help Rashford as their combination play is very effective.
Casemiro - While, as a fanbase, we definitely embellished his performance levels last season, the idea that Casemiro suddenly became a washed-up liability in midfield because he turned 31 in February (the same week he was the Man of the Match in the Carabao Cup final win) doesn't really compute.
His drop in performance is
far more likely to be a system (or lack thereof) which leaves him isolated and overwhelmed with responsibility. Casemiro is not a deep-lying playmaker, and asking him to fulfil this role, while also being the sole line of defence in midfield, is too much for his skillset. Rodri and Rice are the two best defensive midfielders in the league, yet neither Pep nor Arteta would dream of leaving them isolated, on or off the ball, in the manner we do with Casemiro (or Amrabat).
He might have declined slightly due to age and constantly flying across the globe to play 180 minutes for Brazil every few months, but not to the extent we've seen this season. Let Casemiro operate - as the OP suggests - more like the anchor in midfield he was deployed in Madrid, while players around him (Martinez, Shaw, Mainoo) help with the responsibility of build-up play and defensive cover. Getting Casemiro back playing well is almost as crucial as getting Rashford playing well.
Mainoo - It's a reflection of our poor transfer choices that an 18-year old is the best option for this role, but it's also a testament to how good Mainoo already is. His ability on the ball, and the composure he displays with it, are excellent, and stand in direct contrast to other midfielders in the squad. Him and Casemiro appear a good partnership in terms of profile as they are strong in areas the other lacks. Maioo would also enjoy more freedom than he's been currently afforded by having a more defensive partner next to him as well.
Fernandes - The critiques of Bruno have merit but I would much rather see how he performs
alongside a competent midfield, rather than identifying him as the sole reason for the current incompetency. His availability and work-rate are almost so good we don't even see them as positives, while he remains our most creative player. There is definitely a negative aspect to this creativity, but I believe a more balanced team, and a more stable structure, will mitigate this to an extent, while enabling his positives to maximise more. He needs to stop the incessant whining on the pitch though - you're a captain, act like it.
Antony - Quite simply, our best right-winger (that isn't a compliment). Has shown flashes over the past few weeks, and his work-rate is always a positive, but he gets in due to a lack of viable alternatives. I would also like to see Mount tried here, but we would then be reliant upon Wan-Bissaka to provide width on the right. It's a problem position with no easy solution.
Hojlund - Raw and unrefined as a goal scorer, but the potential is there. I really like Hojlund and it's not his fault the club overpaid for his services, nor provided a more experienced alternative to help ease the burden on him. He's come into a team struggling to consistently create chances and have squandered whatever good work he has done in front of goal. We should have flown through our Champions League group in 2nd place, with Hojlund being one of the players of the tournament so far. Instead, he's the joint top scorer and out of the competition.
His physicality and pressing abilities are excellent, as is his attitude. There are obvious weaknesses to his game but I think they make sense due to his age (and inexperience), rather than stemming from a lack of ability. We need a more experienced number nine alongside him though, with Martial departing in the opposite direction.
Rashford - Explained above. Garnacho is a good deputy, but is best deployed from the bench against tired legs. We're reliant on Rashford in the short-term, whether we like it or not.
