They can. The BJP will get around 40% of poplar vote again which will be enough for 300 plus seats.
From my experience living in central India and being in touch with the poor, the middle class and rich I feel
Around 20% of the population seem to be completely into the 'Hindu khatre me hai' thing. This ranges from most Muslims are bad and they will eventually take over, or Congress only favors Muslims (minority appeasement), or believing that the Delhi riots were anti hindu riots started by Muslims and TMC committed a Hindu genocide in Bengal.post elections.
10% of the population are right wingers who aren't your typical.Muslim hating guys but believe Modi is genuinely doing a good job. They completely fail to see the disasters such as a 4-hour notice pockdown, the migrant crisis that followed it, the deaths on the streets due to covid or the mass graves by rivers. The fail to see the mess the economy is in or the Chinese incursion at our border. They feel Modi has done brilliantly to tackle Covid, is doing a great job with the economy and is a very well respected and powerful PM who foreign leaders look upto.
And the remaining 10% are the if not Modi then who. Rahul.Gandhi's image is completely gone, so is the Congress' after the corruption allegations post UPA-2. They don't have enough political acumen to understand that at this time anyone would be better than Modi.
Throw in all the welfare schemes for the poor, and I feel that BJP can go on like this and remain in powert for another decade. Unless we see a grand opposition coilation with all of them agreeing not to field candidates against each other, there is no chance. The local parties are the last hope. BJP has zero presence south of karnataka. If the like of Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), TMC (Bengal), SP (UP), Congress (MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh), AAP (Delhi, Punjab) AIMIM (Telangana), Communists (Kerala), NC (Kashmir), etc come together and run uncontested elections (no major opposing candidate apart from BJP's) then there might be a chance. This is still a very small chance but seems like the last hope. If not now then I can't see any one apart from BJP being in power for another 20 years.
You are completely right and that was main theme of 2002, 2007 election in Gujarat. Even part of 2012 election in Gujarat was held by this narrative.
But you can't replicate this in all over India the quick reminder of failed 2009 general election comes in my mind where Advani and Modi try to replicate this 'Hindu katre me hai' and hard nationalist narrative.
Let look at some numbers even Muslims are in minority in India but India has second biggest Muslim population in world. And its not like in every assembly seat Hindus are majority votes, there are assembly seats where Muslim voters are in majority and that why I said you can't win election without Muslim votes support.
look at UP election BJP done good job in seats where Muslim voters are in majority. You can't denied Muslim votes has vote for BJP so why they vote for anti Muslim party?
While AIMIM (Muslim Party) and Siv Sena (hard Hindu party) get less votes then NOTA.
What I am trying to say is BJP gets Muslim votes even popular belief that BJP is anti-muslim party.
In 2009 when Modi lots general election he quickly realize this 'hard Hindu' image will not work and quickly change narrative. So in 2014 he come up with Gujarat model and development mantra, add that with completely feck up performance from UPA 2. Just look his interviews before 2009 and after 2009 you can see how he totally change his narrative from hard Hindu to some progressive thinker.
Look I can't deny BJP is Hindu party, also I really don't thing Modi is second coming from GOD. He has his flow and narrative, but I also don't thing he is second coming from Devil.
When people claim they vote for Modi because they don't have options its also means that they think from all the options available Modi is best candidate.
Now isn't that is theme for all election around the world? How many choice US, UK other countries votes have?
Lots of my US clients told me they not like Biden but they don't want Trump as president.
Lots of people here think I am 'bhakt' or what ever they think, truth is I also want change.
Even I didn't vote BJP in 2017 Gujarat and if Congress has done enough ground work they could have won in 2017.
And that why I think it will be not going to easy for Modi in 2024.
If you look at our History only 2 PMs able to remain in power for more than 10 years, the simpler reason is in 10 years you will have young generation whose idea and thinking will quite deferent than pervious one. So what ever works for pervious generation will not work for new one.
Lets for example my father is in category of 'Hindu katre me hai' but I don't, I just laugh on those msg and video and will not going to vote for BJP just because they are Hindu party
And I have 2 employee who are Muslim and come as same categories as me. We are more focus on what we are getting from governments then our religion.
10 Years is long time and its good to have some one fresh with new Idea to run government. It would be better for India.
All I am saying its completely possible to win election in 2024 all you need to do is present a candidate who has better narrative then Modi and he might win election. Now can opposition party do that? that's a biggest question.
Sorry for late reply
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