Iran v US confrontation

2cents

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Don't think his movements were top secret:


He might be right here, but everything that journalist writes on Iran and Hezbollah should be taken with a pinch of salt.
 

RobinLFC

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Enjoy Jordan, it’s a great country to visit as a tourist and it’s extremely unlikely that the brewing conflict will spill over there.
Cheers man, much appreciated.
 

Redplane

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You can't make this shit up- just was told by folks that there are stories that some stores around the country ran out of bread and other supplies bc people are worried about the Iran retaliation. Cold War v2 here we come.
 

do.ob

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You can't make this shit up- just was told by folks that there are stories that some stores around the country ran out of bread and other supplies bc people are worried about the Iran retaliation. Cold War v2 here we come.
They think Iran will invade the US?
 

SteveJ

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Tbf people overreact that way even to Christmas, let alone WWIII.
 

barros

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It's America, where paranoia and fear mongering are as much part of the society as anything. Are you surprised?
Here most of the people have no idea who's the guy US killed and they don't even know US made that attack. In the beginning I though the American people were ignorant but 30 years later I realized they are both ignorant and they don't give a shit what's happening outside the country.
 

Sir Matt

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You can't make this shit up- just was told by folks that there are stories that some stores around the country ran out of bread and other supplies bc people are worried about the Iran retaliation. Cold War v2 here we come.
Where was this supposedly happening?

The only reason any stores would run out of bread right now would be weather.
 

Florida Man

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I was thinking about doing the same. What have we become, lads? Thinking about making profit off of a potential conflict that could affect thousands if not millions. I know this is just how the game is played, but god damn...
Donate your earnings to Bernie and it's like watching your sins be washed away.
 

arnie_ni

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Was this not the guy behind the Benghazi attack?

Id wager he had it coming
 

Redplane

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Where was this supposedly happening?

The only reason any stores would run out of bread right now would be weather.
Most concrete example I've heard and this is coming straight from someone who s from there is Flint, MI. In other words - considering the economics there many of them should be saving their money rather than buying out grocery stores. Proof though that the fear mongering works.

Edit: NYC now saying it's on high alert for being a prime target. Guess all the sushi around the city will soon be sold out.
 

2cents

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Was this not the guy behind the Benghazi attack?

No. It’s extremely likely though that he gave the go-ahead for the assault in the US embassy in Baghdad a few days ago.
 

Kaos

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Was this not the guy behind the Benghazi attack?

Id wager he had it coming
No.

And that there is the issue. The US will attempt to convince everyone that Iran is the sole sponsor of terrorism, they're not even the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the region.
 

africanspur

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Best case for who?

The crux of this is that the Iranian govt wants nukes and is prepared to do what ever it takes to get them.

The rest of the world don't want Iran to have nukes.

The USA is prepared to hold sanctions on Iran until it gives up its aim to have nukes and thinks it can force the issue economically.

The Iranian govt is in trouble for the first time domestically because the economic hardship is forcing a wedge between it leadership and the people who are paying the cost of its desire to have nukes and oppose the US by spending billions on proxy forces across the middle east.

When sanction go on the US got the blame but as the economic damage mounts it is inevitable that people question whether its all worth it to them. The Iranian govt is in a bind if they can't escalate this further they are in danger of falling, you can't keep shooting thousands of people to stay in power and expect to remain popular unless you can show your external policy is working. So they attack Saudi's oil facilities and the US embassy.

So the US kill the two most senior generals who made that decision.

Best out come for the US is the Iranian regime falls.

Best outcome for Iran is US overreach and ends up changing its policy following massive casualties because that is the only way they will change their policy on Iranian nukes.

Best outcome for the rest of the world depends on whether you could live with several nuclear powers in the middle east or not.
The Americans and Israelis have been going on about the Iranians having nukes for over 20 years now. About how they're just a couple of years ago from having them.

The Iranians signed a nuclear accord with the Western powers, which by almost all accounts (ie other than Trump), they've been keeping to.

He then unilaterally cancels the deal and imposes the harshest possible sanctions on the country and even makes it almost impossible for other countries to disagree.

Best outcome for most of the rest of the world is just about where we were a few years ago.

Though I'm sure some will still beat the Iranian nuke drum.

Ironically, actions like this will likely convince them of the need for nukes more than anything else.
 

RoadTrip

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Given the actions this administration has taken over the past few years, negotiation has been made impossible. Let’s assume he did organise the assault on the US embassy, Trump, because of his own policy and actions, didn’t leave himself any other options. In the end, this was a predictable escalation because the actions over the last few years left few other avenues.

We should really be focusing on the complete shambles of US foreign policy since Trump took office which has built up to this. It’s an act of ignorance entirely of his own making.

The issue is America and it’s voters is so partisan, it makes our divide over Brexit look insignificant. No matter what Trump does, it won’t actually shock any significant amount of people.
 

Traub

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Given the actions this administration has taken over the past few years, negotiation has been made impossible. Let’s assume he did organise the assault on the US embassy, Trump, because of his own policy and actions, didn’t leave himself any other options. In the end, this was a predictable escalation because the actions over the last few years left few other avenues.

We should really be focusing on the complete shambles of US foreign policy since Trump took office which has built up to this. It’s an act of ignorance entirely of his own making.

The issue is America and it’s voters is so partisan, it makes our divide over Brexit look insignificant. No matter what Trump does, it won’t actually shock any significant amount of people.
He definitely had other options. He could’ve targeted specific Iranian points of interest in Iraq for example.

This is a clear tactic, the US will go after those dishing out the orders.
 

GiddyUp

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Yep, the country that serves as the ideological backbone to the likes of ISIS and Al Qaeda, as well as bearing the 9/11 hijackers.

Nope, its all about Iraq Iran.
Well if Obama didn't sit on his ass on 9/11 when Saddam was bombing the twin towers Iran wouldn't have a problem. feck, I'm done with Republicans, I cant even mock them without my blood boiling. Maybe they should be labeled as a terrorist organization.
 

RoadTrip

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He definitely had other options. He could’ve targeted specific Iranian points of interest in Iraq for example.

This is a clear tactic, the US will go after those dishing out the orders.
Yeah he had immediate options without assassinating him. But that’s not exactly what I was saying. What I’m saying is that this action was an inevitable escalation based on Trump’s foreign policy. Be it this. Be it attacking specific targets like you say. The point is the road he embarked on only ever ended in conflict. And I don’t think this’ll be the end of it either.
 

utdalltheway

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Neither. They're happy to ruffle America's feathers on a few things but they dont want a full on conflict with them.
JPRouve is right though; they're on their side.
They're playing the long game so are quite happy to do whatever, including nothing, so long as it fits with their long term plan.
They'll loan money/buy bonds all day long and the US can bankrupt themselves in expensive and ill-advised ventures.
 

JPRouve

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JPRouve is right though; they're on their side.
They're playing the long game so are quite happy to do whatever, including nothing, so long as it fits with their long term plan.
They'll loan money/buy bonds all day long and the US can bankrupt themselves in expensive and ill-advised ventures.
Exactly. I'm more interested in what Russia will directly do behind everyone's back. China sees everyone as pieces in their mahjong game.