Matheus Cunha | Deal close with United (Sky Sports)

I'm up for this signing, I'm just not up for paying £62.5million for it to happen. This lad for that money or Cherki for £25million. Only we would do the prior.

I don’t think we would

You know sometimes, maybe often even, we pay more for players because the first/second choice etc.. don’t want to join this dumpster fire

How many clubs do you think will offer cherki a contract if his price is 25 million, 10, 15?

Would you honestly pick united?
 
You mean, we aren't Liverpool/Chelsea, so there is no chance of pulling this off on a reasonable budget.
We don't have the budget for all the players mentioned, no.

Strange how you've mentioned reasonable budget and Chelsea in the same sentence, those words don't belong together
 
Last edited:
Exactly the profile we need. Physical, technical, creative and scores goals.

Give him the #10. Him and Bruno together, we will be cooking.

Yes. I love that he carries the ball forward, not relying on endless sideway passes, and creates chances for himself. He's a brilliant player, relentless, hard-working, with attitude and apparently United fan who wants to join us regardless of CL qualification.
 
I would agree with you, but unusually I think we are quite well set up for some sizeable turnover up front.

Whilst I don’t think we will buy those 4. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Cunha, Delap and someone else.

Radhford, Antony and Sancho should be gone without too much fuss. Think we might loan out Rasmus.
I think Cunha and Delap look likely and after that, we'll see. We're heavily dependent on sales by the sound of it so one big signing and a few 20/30 million?
 
A pal was telling me that Cunha is right in the bottom set for distance covered per game. Plus we know he has an absolutely firebrand temperament.

Could be genius, and the new coming of Cantona, or could be dangerous?
 
I'm up for this signing, I'm just not up for paying £62.5million for it to happen. This lad for that money or Cherki for £25million. Only we would do the prior.

Cherki will not be £25M he’ll go for much more. £25M is not a release clause and was only a gentleman’s agreement and for January only.

 
Indeed and we need PL goals

Each to their own. Cherki may flatter to decisive in the PL and if hes playing in the front 3 he will need to seriously improve his productivity to he a top player in the PL. I would take Mbeumo all day, to me he is like
Mane at Southampton waiting to explode. Not only is he productive he is extremely hard working too
No doubting he's a better player in the EPL currently but we will not be able to afford him along with Cunha and a striker.
 
Out: Hjolund, Rashford, Antony, Sancho

In: Delap, Osimhen, Cherki, Cunha

Will transform the team, along with a deep lying playmaker in midfield, a RWB and GK.
The PSR related point deduction as a result of doing this business certainly be transformative!
 
No doubting he's a better player in the EPL currently but we will not be able to afford him along with Cunha and a striker.
Hence why in the Cunha thread I said I would prefer Mbuemo. I did not bring up Cherki
 
Cherki will not be £25M he’ll go for much more. £25M is not a release clause and was only a gentleman’s agreement and for January only.



Cherki didn't look great to me.
The price, if true, is obviously attractive but I wouldn't sign him just for that reason.
 
Now back on topic:



I like Cunha, but I don't like the price. There are lots of attacking midfielders we could get at the price range. For 60m, we have options. We could throw that at Arda Guler and Madrid would sell or go for Xavi Simons who would be a great fit for the 10 position. He can play wider and is also good narrower. Even Mbuemo at 30-40m, would be a good deal and we would still have another 20-30m to spend on someone like Cherki. Also, he can only really play as a 10 as he can't play as a winger and not great as a 9.

For 60m, I would go for Xavi Simons but I don't think buying Cunha is a bad idea, just not at that price.
 
62.5 million for a guy that only has this decent season behind him? Seems mad to even fathom.
 
I like Cunha, but I don't like the price. There are lots of attacking midfielders we could get at the price range. For 60m, we have options. We could throw that at Arda Guler and Madrid would sell or go for Xavi Simons who would be a great fit for the 10 position. He can play wider and is also good narrower. Even Mbuemo at 30-40m, would be a good deal and we would still have another 20-30m to spend on someone like Cherki. Also, he can only really play as a 10 as he can't play as a winger and not great as a 9.

For 60m, I would go for Xavi Simons but I don't think buying Cunha is a bad idea, just not at that price.

I guess the attraction of Cunha is we know what we're getting. Less risk.

He's PL proven and guaranteed quality.

The price is fine if we got 6 good years out of him. 10m a year is nothing.

Bruno was a similar age and price and is our best signing post Fergie.
 
62.5 million for a guy that only has this decent season behind him? Seems mad to even fathom.
And the last decent season. His stats for the last couple of years are better than Mane at Southampton, and you can't buy a player like that for 30-odd million anymore.
 
I like Cunha, but I don't like the price. There are lots of attacking midfielders we could get at the price range. For 60m, we have options. We could throw that at Arda Guler and Madrid would sell or go for Xavi Simons who would be a great fit for the 10 position. He can play wider and is also good narrower. Even Mbuemo at 30-40m, would be a good deal and we would still have another 20-30m to spend on someone like Cherki. Also, he can only really play as a 10 as he can't play as a winger and not great as a 9.

For 60m, I would go for Xavi Simons but I don't think buying Cunha is a bad idea, just not at that price.
You say we have options but you literally don't know what those options are.

There's no serious indication that Madrid will sell Guler. Xavi Simons apparently isn't allowed to leave for less than his release clause (~£70m), which makes sense because they basically paid that for him. Mbuemo is not going for ~£30-40m, he has one year left, plus the club has an option for a further year so he has two years left on his deal (if Mbeumo was available for £30m, I think the whole league would be after him). Cherki's ~£25m verbal (!) release clause was only valid during January to the best of our knowledge.

It's great to say why are we doing this, there's better options here? But if we are going to have a go at what the club are doing, let's be serious and not make up what the options are, it serves no purpose.

What we do know, is that the club value Cunha, and appear to be willing to pay his release clause. Cunha appears to really want to come here and we aren't a second or third choice or whatever. We could look at this and say, he's performed very well in the PL, he's got a release clause that in line with his contributions for his time in the PL is actually reasonable (subjectively, I get that) and with him reaching what should be his prime years in his career. So we could be excited about this deal and what we know it entails. Or we can choose to pretend that there are all these other options on the table, despite not having a clue if they actually are options?
 
The key things for Cunha over Cherki, he's obviously got bags of epl experience and shown he can shine in this league, but more importantly, I would guess is that Wolves play the same system as Amorim, he's used to it, understands it and can hit the ground running.

Signing Cunha and Delap makes so much sense.
Agreed. It's about time we go back to signing PL proven players.


You say we have options but you literally don't know what those options are.

There's no serious indication that Madrid will sell Guler. Xavi Simons apparently isn't allowed to leave for less than his release clause (~£70m), which makes sense because they basically paid that for him. Mbuemo is not going for ~£30-40m, he has one year left, plus the club has an option for a further year so he has two years left on his deal (if Mbeumo was available for £30m, I think the whole league would be after him). Cherki's ~£25m verbal (!) release clause was only valid during January to the best of our knowledge.

It's great to say why are we doing this, there's better options here? But if we are going to have a go at what the club are doing, let's be serious and not make up what the options are, it serves no purpose.

What we do know, is that the club value Cunha, and appear to be willing to pay his release clause. Cunha appears to really want to come here and we aren't a second or third choice or whatever. We could look at this and say, he's performed very well in the PL, he's got a release clause that in line with his contributions for his time in the PL is actually reasonable (subjectively, I get that) and with him reaching what should be his prime years in his career. So we could be excited about this deal and what we know it entails. Or we can choose to pretend that there are all these other options on the table, despite not having a clue if they actually are options?
Guler in the hustle and bustle of premier league? It would fail spectacularly. Doesn't strike me as a fighter type. Xavi I'm not sold on him. Cherki I also have reservations. Of all those listed Cunha looks the surest bet for me.
 
Personally, I place very little value in the idea of players being PL proven.

Most of the best attackers in the league weren't PL proven when they arrived at their current clubs, many PL proven players have failed when moving to other clubs, and the "proven" part in descriptions of being PL proven varies so wildly from player to player that it often amounts to having simply "played for a bit in the PL".

All of Maguire, Lukaku, Mount, AWB, Mata, Matic, Shaw, Schneiderlin, Sanchez, etc. were also heralded as "PL proven" by those who wanted them signed. Cunha having played in the PL no more ensures that those who claim he offers guaranteed quality will be proven correct than it did for any of the others. Because "proven" isn't actually proven.

If he fails then in a few years from now that idea that he was PL proven will just be discarded. Instead the narrative will be "well, it was actually clear from his time in the league that his goal returns were unsustainable, he had attitude problems, his work rate wasn't great. And doing it for Wolves isn't the same as doing it for United. Why didn't we buy [insert name of different player bought for less money by rival club] instead?". Even as people are still calling for some other supposedly PL proven player to be signed, because this time it might mean something.
 
Cherki didn't look great to me.
The price, if true, is obviously attractive but I wouldn't sign him just for that reason.
Well regardless if it was true or not (leaning towards true as it’s come from Romano) it doesn’t matter now as it’s no longer January
 
Can he actually play as a number 9 or not?

That's a big plus if true.

He tends to play a more withdrawn role for Wolves as he's good at progressing play and carrying the ball. But I do think he could play as a 9 if needed, he's physical enough, he's got the pace and technical ability, and has good finishing. I doubt that's what we will be signing him for but I think he could fill in there.
 
He tends to play a more withdrawn role for Wolves as he's good at progressing play and carrying the ball. But I do think he could play as a 9 if needed, he's physical enough, he's got the pace and technical ability, and has good finishing. I doubt that's what we will be signing him for but I think he could fill in there.
I'm pretty sure he has done before. Not his best role, as ideally you want him picking up the ball facing the goal and running with it, but I think he can do it. Would certainly help take weight off a younger striker, if you need to
 
He tends to play a more withdrawn role for Wolves as he's good at progressing play and carrying the ball. But I do think he could play as a 9 if needed, he's physical enough, he's got the pace and technical ability, and has good finishing. I doubt that's what we will be signing him for but I think he could fill in there.

It's useful though if all our other number 10s are fit and Hojlund is still misfiring.
 
You say we have options but you literally don't know what those options are.

There's no serious indication that Madrid will sell Guler. Xavi Simons apparently isn't allowed to leave for less than his release clause (~£70m), which makes sense because they basically paid that for him. Mbuemo is not going for ~£30-40m, he has one year left, plus the club has an option for a further year so he has two years left on his deal (if Mbeumo was available for £30m, I think the whole league would be after him). Cherki's ~£25m verbal (!) release clause was only valid during January to the best of our knowledge.

It's great to say why are we doing this, there's better options here? But if we are going to have a go at what the club are doing, let's be serious and not make up what the options are, it serves no purpose.

What we do know, is that the club value Cunha, and appear to be willing to pay his release clause. Cunha appears to really want to come here and we aren't a second or third choice or whatever. We could look at this and say, he's performed very well in the PL, he's got a release clause that in line with his contributions for his time in the PL is actually reasonable (subjectively, I get that) and with him reaching what should be his prime years in his career. So we could be excited about this deal and what we know it entails. Or we can choose to pretend that there are all these other options on the table, despite not having a clue if they actually are options?

Most transfers are just that, list of options so I don't see how highlighting those is not sensible. My point was that, with the size of fee, we generally would have a list of options outside of just one player.

It is known that Guler is not happy with his playing time at Madrid. Madrid are also known to do this with players who want to leave or they get a good deal like Hakimi, Ozil etc. Heck, we could even target Brahim Diaz who won't cost an arm and a leg.

Mbuemo doesn't look like renewing which means this next window is last option for Brentford to get a fee for him. They would get a decent profit at 40m, especially if he points out he's not going to renew so saying he's not an option is not accurate. Arsenal and other clubs have been linked with him and its not for a fee above 40m.

Simons' release clause is 68m, so only an extra 6m above what we are looking to pay for Cunha. Younger, more talented and has a much broader skillset than Cunha has.

I'm not saying Cunha is a bad option, I'm just pointing out that at the size of fee, there are lots more talented players we could target that would be as good or even better than Cunha outside of EPL proven theory.
 
So just a question, is it better to underperform xg or overperform? If a player consistently outperforms XG, are they not just a better quality finisher?

The way I see it, this is an artifact of the way xG works. Not even a tap-in from 6 yards is a full 1.0 xG. If you think the average value of xG might be something like 0.5, that means every goal you score you are 'overperforming' your xG for that goal by an average 0.5. Most goals are less than 0.5, so you can score one 0.25 goal and miss three other 0.25s and still be performing at your xG. Cunha scores a decent number of goals from outside the area which would rarely be rated over 0.2 and are likely even lower, so score one 0.1 and you can miss 8 other 0.1s and still be outperforming your xG
 
When you consider Wolves paid 45M for Cunha, it makes any negotiating on the 62.5M buyout a waste of time.

United know what they need to pay. So it shouldn't take very long at all.
 
Can he actually play as a number 9 or not?

That's a big plus if true.

He tends to play a more withdrawn role for Wolves as he's good at progressing play and carrying the ball. But I do think he could play as a 9 if needed, he's physical enough, he's got the pace and technical ability, and has good finishing. I doubt that's what we will be signing him for but I think he could fill in there.

I'm pretty sure he has done before. Not his best role, as ideally you want him picking up the ball facing the goal and running with it, but I think he can do it. Would certainly help take weight off a younger striker, if you need to
He played upfront against us first game of last season where he and Wolves tore us a new one and we somehow won 1-0. He was dropping deep to start a lot of his runs though so more of a false 9 you could say.
 
He played upfront against us first game of last season where he and Wolves tore us a new one and we somehow won 1-0. He was dropping deep to start a lot of his runs though so more of a false 9 you could say.
He did also miss a plethora of good chances in that match, so probably shouldn't be relied on for regular goals...

Pretty sure he might be outscoring his Xg for the first time this season
 
When you consider Wolves paid 45M for Cunha, it makes any negotiating on the 62.5M buyout a waste of time.

United know what they need to pay. So it shouldn't take very long at all.
I think the thing that stretches it out will be negotiations on installments and fee structure.
 
I also think that you can't just add xG together to see how many 'goals' someone should score, because the stat isn't quite predicting this in an even manner.

I would imagine what youwould be better doing is splitting xG into categories e.g 0.01-0.2, 0.21-0.4, 0.41-0.6 etc. This way you can look at the types of chances each player tends to get and then how many of those types of chances they convert.

The reason this is important for me is that a striker who scores all ten chances that got that were rated say 0.7 would be outperforming their xG by 30% and another player who scored all 10 chances rated at 0.3 would outperform their xG by 70%

A fox in the box striker would therefore could be doing far better outperforming their xG by 15% (assuming they get lots of high xG tap in goals by always making the right runs and almost never fluffing a chance) compared to a player outperforming xG by 50% having scored half a dozen shots from 25 yards.
 
I also think that you can't just add xG together to see how many 'goals' someone should score, because the stat isn't quite predicting this in an even manner.

I would imagine what youwould be better doing is splitting xG into categories e.g 0.01-0.2, 0.21-0.4, 0.41-0.6 etc. This way you can look at the types of chances each player tends to get and then how many of those types of chances they convert.

The reason this is important for me is that a striker who scores all ten chances that got that were rated say 0.7 would be outperforming their xG by 30% and another player who scored all 10 chances rated at 0.3 would outperform their xG by 70%

A fox in the box striker would therefore could be doing far better outperforming their xG by 15% (assuming they get lots of high xG tap in goals by always making the right runs and almost never fluffing a chance) compared to a player outperforming xG by 50% having scored half a dozen shots from 25 yards.
This is the whole point of xG. An elite striker (think Son, Messi, Kane) might be able to reliably score those 10 chances. The guy who takes 10 shots worth 0.3xG is never, ever going to do that again, it has to have an incredible amount of luck.

That's why summing xG works.