Matheus Cunha | Release clause met, transfer being finalised

[Woziak]

Sadly we are 13th for that this season, one place ahead of Wolves and 13th last season.

If only we currently reside 14th with the potential to drop to 17th after the next round of fixtures!

 

[Zumbi]

For the money those stats are quite poor really in my opinion, we'd need a lot more from our players in the 10 position

You said off the ball he was “fecking rank”. That’s clearly not the case if he is in the upper percentiles for interceptions and clearances. “fecking rank” would surely be in the bottom percentiles for defensive metrics?

 

[Cassidy]

I still personally think I would prefer Mbuemo but Cunha is a good option

 

[MrFishers]

I wonder how RA would use him.

 

[Hip Hop]

Well when it's come to ourtperforming his xG Mbeumo is no mug either. Cunha is fine, last year was ok in that regard.

 

[NZT-One]

The player has underperformed his xG every season bar the last two. I'm the last 18 months he's over performed that by 100%. Very good finishers usually are around the 10% mark, the absolute next is probably Son, who does so by 25%. Cunha this season is going at 4x the career average of the best we've measured.

The raw goal equivalent is a player scoring 2 hattricks in his first 2 games and assuming he's going to score league 100 goals that year. It's just impossible to do that long term.

I think, some of the posters you talk to simply aren't that experienced in interpreting some of the numbers which is why they misunderstand your points.

For what its worth, I agree with you. Nothing against Cunha as a player but he is what could be a one-time team of the season player. The latest hype. Nothing wrong with it, there are enough examples where such a player then stepped up and reached new heights. But there are also enough examples where this didn't happened. When I see that we seem to target him and Delap, I am definitely worried because bringing in two players of that category increases the chance of one not really hitting the ground running. The prices quoted aren't outrageous but I completely agree with you - it most likely takes away a sizable chunk of the budget

 

[cpresc]

But he's not going to have to double his xG to hit 15 goals if he's in a better team. All you need to do is watch him play to know he will continue scoring goals.

His goals from outside the box weren't flukey, he places pretty much all of them which means he has a great shot/finish and will continue to score them similar to Son and Foden who always outperform their xG.

If he moves to a better team and his Baseline xG increases from 9 a season to around 13 he isn't going need to do anything crazy like this season to hit 15 league goals and it would be hard for him to not hit double figures.

He's only had two proper seasons in this league after only playing 900 mins in his debut season and he's hit 12 goals in 2400 mins and 14 in 2300 without penalties, if he plays 2800+ mins like the majority of attackers do he's almost guaranteed to get you 15+ league goals without taking a penalty.

He also takes all of their set pieces which shows how high a level his technical ability is.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is that he's only missed 25 games in his whole career due to injury with the longest stint out being 7 games. He's perfect to takeover Garnacho's position and elevate us straight away.

That's a big IF given our season!

 

[cpresc]

I think, some of the posters you talk to simply aren't that experienced in interpreting some of the numbers which is why they misunderstand your points.

For what its worth, I agree with you. Nothing against Cunha as a player but he is what could be a one-time team of the season player. The latest hype. Nothing wrong with it, there are enough examples where such a player then stepped up and reached new heights. But there are also enough examples where this didn't happened. When I see that we seem to target him and Delap, I am definitely worried because bringing in two players of that category increases the chance of one not really hitting the ground running. The prices quoted aren't outrageous but I completely agree with you - it most likely takes away a sizable chunk of the budget

Based on that same logic, would you agree that Man Utd's data team are more experienced than anyone here? And therefore, if they make the hire, the stats were good?

 

[Gandalf]

For the money those stats are quite poor really in my opinion, we'd need a lot more from our players in the 10 position

His stats are excellent and he is a massive upgrade over every player in the squad besides Bruno and maybe Amad. The price is more than reasonable and we are fecking desperate for a player like this but for some reason we want to nitpick to death stats which most of us don't even know how to interpret properly. I know it is like an old man shouting at the clouds but I don't watch a bunch of stats on the weekend, I watch players and beyond a doubt this is a good player who fits the system we are now playing and will improve us hugely.

 

[The Constant Gardener]

For the money those stats are quite poor really in my opinion, we'd need a lot more from our players in the 10 position

Eh? We aren't asking him to slot in at the left side of the centre back trio FFS, we want him to provide an outlet so that our midfield players can get the ball to him and either score or just progress it up the field, so that others can catch up. He's absolutely perfect for the role.

 

[Gavinb33]

You said off the ball he was “fecking rank”. That’s clearly not the case if he is in the upper percentiles for interceptions and clearances. “fecking rank” would surely be in the bottom percentiles for defensive metrics?

He walks the most in the league during games is that good off the ball work, this is the kind of thing fans will turn a blind eye to when it's some shiny new toy but when it's a player in their squad he'll get pilloried, I mean we've seen that exact thing play out recently with certain players

 

[MyOnlySolskjaer]

This is why he overperforms his xG, he scores from long range a lot. But seems a genuine threat from further positions.

His shooting technique is quite Van Persie-like.

 

[Dion]

Based on that same logic, would you agree that Man Utd's data team are more experienced than anyone here? And therefore, if they make the hire, the stats were good?

Speaking as a data analyst (literally my job is a team lead in an analysis department), it's not really a question of how good your data team is necessarily. Analysis doesn't guarantee you pick the perfect option even if the perfect option exists (which is very frequently doesn't). Not only are you often working from limited options and information, but you're not always the one making the final call regardless.

Besides, from the noise coming from outside (and frankly, our track record in the transfer market) is that our analysis department is well behind the level of some Premier League teams and even when it gets it right it's often over-ruled. So I don't think it's a given that if they sign someone then their stats were good. I think it's an indication that someone at the club made a decision (which may, or may not have involved an analytics team heavily) which they thought was the best out of the available options. That's a whole long chain of events where things can go wrong, or decisions which seem reasonable in principle end of having my larger consequences.

 

[Syphon Wallet]

Based on that same logic, would you agree that Man Utd's data team are more experienced than anyone here? And therefore, if they make the hire, the stats were good?

Absolutely not.
I'd sack the data team if they were responsible for our recent signings.

 

[Zumbi]

He walks the most in the league during games is that good off the ball work, this is the kind of thing fans will turn a blind eye to when it's some shiny new toy but when it's a player in their squad he'll get pilloried, I mean we've seen that exact thing play out recently with certain players

How much a player walks is a nonsense stat. VVD was right up there too in those walking stats too, does that mean he is rank defensively? If he is in the upper percentiles for some defensive metrics, then what he is doing is more effective than most of his peers. And don’t get me wrong, I am not arguing that Cunha should be bought for his defensive work. But his defensive work is clearly not so rank that he should be disregarded as an option that would significantly upgrade our attack.

 

[Dion]

He walks the most in the league during games is that good off the ball work, this is the kind of thing fans will turn a blind eye to when it's some shiny new toy but when it's a player in their squad he'll get pilloried, I mean we've seen that exact thing play out recently with certain players

I do wonder if some people are looking at the defensive percentiles compared to strikers, rather than what BREF (which I assume is where they're coming from) describes as Att Mid/Winger. If you compare him to strikers (which is entirely flawed) he's top percentile in those metrics. If you compare him to others who actually play a similar position the only two metrics he's above average at are clearances and interceptions. He's around average for tackles and blocks. Going purely off the eye test, that tracks. His work rate is decent but nothing exceptional.

 

[Dion]

I think deliberately comparing an attacking midfielder with a centerback when we talk about walking stats is incredibly disingenuous, and I say that as someone who largely thinks his work rate is fine and not an issue.

 

[Zumbi]

I think deliberately comparing an attacking midfielder with a centerback when we talk about walking stats is incredibly disingenuous, and I say that as someone who largely thinks his work rate is fine and not an issue.

I simply made the point that walking stats don’t shed any meaningful light on a player’s defensive contributions. Assessing their defensive metrics versus their peers, however, does.

 

[Eddy_JukeZ]

I'm honestly not a big fan and would prefer someone else.

Don't think he's top quality. Hope I'm wrong if we sign him

 

[Dion]

I simply made the point that walking stats don’t shed any meaningful light on a player’s defensive contributions. Assessing their defensive metrics versus their peers, however, does.

You suggested that the argument that an attacking midfielder has questionable work ethic because he walks a lot should also apply to a centerback. and because that centerback is obviously good defensively, that the argument is false. This is obviously a fallacy, because everyone who has watched a game of football knows the roles are so functionally different that it's meaningless. And knowing that and still making the argument makes it disingenuous.

 

[Cassidy]

You suggested that the argument that an attacking midfielder has questionable work ethic because he walks a lot should also apply to a centerback. and because that centerback is obviously good defensively, that the argument is false. This is obviously a fallacy, because everyone who has watched a game of football knows the roles are so functionally different that it's meaningless. And knowing that and still making the argument makes it disingenuous.

And yet Cunha still has good defensive stats. Probably showing that the walking stats are indeed meaningless

 

[Zumbi]

You suggested that the argument that an attacking midfielder has questionable work ethic because he walks a lot should also apply to a centerback. and because that centerback is obviously good defensively, that the argument is false. This is obviously a fallacy, because everyone who has watched a game of football knows the roles are so functionally different that it's meaningless. And knowing that and still making the argument makes it disingenuous.

No, I didn’t. I just said it is a nonsense stat, and that applies whether we’re talking about a CB or a forward.

Instead I pointed to peer comparisons of defensive metrics as being more relevant.

Do you actually disagree with that or are you just here looking for an argument?

 

[cpresc]

Speaking as a data analyst (literally my job is a team lead in an analysis department), it's not really a question of how good your data team is necessarily. Analysis doesn't guarantee you pick the perfect option even if the perfect option exists (which is very frequently doesn't). Not only are you often working from limited options and information, but you're not always the one making the final call regardless.

Besides, from the noise coming from outside (and frankly, our track record in the transfer market) is that our analysis department is well behind the level of some Premier League teams and even when it gets it right it's often over-ruled. So I don't think it's a given that if they sign someone then their stats were good. I think it's an indication that someone at the club made a decision (which may, or may not have involved an analytics team heavily) which they thought was the best out of the available options. That's a whole long chain of events where things can go wrong, or decisions which seem reasonable in principle end of having my larger consequences.

Yeah I can very much imagine us lacking in culture in that regard. A few whiz kids getting ignored while some old boy chief scout picks his winner over a nice glass of red - hopefully INEOS are fixing that up.

What excites me about Cuhna is that he has a presence about him and I think that would improve both Bruno and Nacho's key metrics. I'm no data person but I'd expect to see Wolves' other attackers getting better chances when Cunha plays. We're so one dimensional right now and need to fix that as a priority.

 

[Dion]

And yet Cunha still has good defensive stats. Probably showing that the walking stats are indeed meaningless

If you go back and read the original comment you'll see I have no problem with Cunha's work ethic (and I think that his walking stats are in part because of the style of football Wolves play). None of that changes the fact the argument presented to that effect was incredibly disingenuous.

 

[Dion]

No, I didn’t. I just said it is a nonsense stat, and that applies whether we’re talking about a CB or a forward.

Instead I pointed to peer comparisons of defensive metrics as being more relevant.

Do you actually disagree with that or are you just here looking for an argument?

I mean you've done it in the following sentence. Again.

I disagree with the disingenuous argument, I disagree that it's a "nonsense stat". I don't disagree with the wider argument (which you haven't actually made, but I will) that in Cunha's case there are mitigating circumstances for his walking stats that probably get him a pass given his other metrics.

 

[Zumbi]

If you go back and read the original comment you'll see I have no problem with Cunha's work ethic (and I think that his walking stats are in part because of the style of football Wolves play). None of that changes the fact the argument presented to that effect was incredibly disingenuous.

Bollocks was it. The point being made was that walking stats don’t shed any meaningful light on defensive contributions. That is all.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

Personally I would be incredibly excited by this and I’m surprised by a lot of the reaction in here. He’s the perfect age to come in and make an immediate impact. I think stylistically hes the perfect CAM for Amorim in this system in that his primary ability is his take ons and we simply don’t have players that can provide that. Personally think he’s a far better fit for this system than somebody like Mbeuno (who I do like as a player!).

 

[Dion]

Bollocks was it. The point being made was that walking stats don’t shed any meaningful light on defensive contributions. That is all.

And you made that point in a completely fallacious and disingenuous way, made more egregious by the fact you didn't even need to do it. Implying that because they dont mean anything for a centerback, they don't mean anything for an attacking midfielder is just lazy nonsense and there was absolutely no justifiable reason to bring up Van Dijk.

 

[Demaw]

Like how Bruno came in and made an instant improvement to the team. This guy is good.

 

[soapythecat]

I'm honestly not a big fan and would prefer someone else.

Don't think he's top quality. Hope I'm wrong if we sign him

I think many agree with you pal. Given this is a wonder season for him, it’s a huge risk to blow pretty much our full budget on him.

 

[Waynne]

Personally I would be incredibly excited by this and I’m surprised by a lot of the reaction in here. He’s the perfect age to come in and make an immediate impact. I think stylistically hes the perfect CAM for Amorim in this system in that his primary ability is his take ons and we simply don’t have players that can provide that. Personally think he’s a far better fit for this system than somebody like Mbeuno (who I do like as a player!).

Same here. Not sure why people are not more excited by him signing on.
He can hit them just as well as Bruno can with both feet and we'll have two 10's who are a genuine goal threat.
You add in Osimhen or Gyokeres ahead of these two and there's an attacking front line with bags of goals.

If we can offload Rashford, Sancho and Antony as soon as possible we'll be in a great position for an amazing summer transfer window.

 

[Zumbi]

And you made that point in a completely fallacious and disingenuous way, made more egregious by the fact you didn't even need to do it. Implying that because they dont mean anything for a centerback, they don't mean anything for an attacking midfielder is just lazy nonsense and there was absolutely no justifiable reason to bring up Van Dijk.

Try reading the entirety of my posts instead of throwing a little tantrum over a point that you broadly seem to agree with, yet are desparate to misconstrue for the sake of a petty argument.

I disregarded it as meaningful in Cunha’s case specifically because of how he compares to his peers in actual defensive metrics, just the same way you could disregard it in VVD’s case because of how he compares to his peers in actual defensive metrics.

Disingenuous, fallacious and egregious, indeed.

 

[Bondi77]

Same here. Not sure why people are not more excited by him signing on.
He can hit them just as well as Bruno can with both feet and we'll have two 10's who are a genuine goal threat.
You add in Osimhen or Gyokeres ahead of these two and there's an attacking front line with bags of goals.

If we can offload Rashford, Sancho and Antony as soon as possible we'll be in a great position for an amazing summer transfer window.

Maybe we have conned Chelsea into buying Sancho but there is no way Rashford or Antony are going to leave Utd given the wages they are on.
I don't know what is so hard to understand about that!

 

[Apokalips]

My bad - edited. Should have read three yellows and no reds for 2022-2023. So he’s had one red card in three seasons.

Wow I was going to say 3 reds and no yellows in a season is mighty impressive going!

 

[Tosicsleftpeg]

Even though he was quiet the other day he was still the only one of their players I can remember creating things. He won the free kick for the goal, played a great ball for the RWB towards the end and had a decent shot on goal.

The guy makes things happen and I remember him being unreal against us last season.

 

[Dion]

Try reading the entirety of my posts instead of throwing a little tantrum over a point that you broadly seem to agree with, yet are desparate to misconstrue for the sake of a petty argument.

I disregarded it as meaningful in Cunha’s case specifically because of how he compares to his peers in actual defensive metrics, just the same way you could disregard it in VVD’s case because of how he compares to his peers in actual defensive metrics.

Disingenuous, fallacious and egregious, indeed.

I'm sorry but that's not the argument you made at all, and even then it would still be disingenuous because as pointed out, centerbacks and attacking midfielders are entirely different roles and walking means entirely different things in those roles.

I'm sorry you dislike being called out on this, but I stand by my criticism and nothing you've said since suggests it was in any way unfounded and I'm completely happy for everyone else to judge whether I've been fair in my criticism based on what I've already posted.

 

[Dion]

Maybe we have conned Chelsea into buying Sancho but there is no way Rashford or Antony are going to leave Utd given the wages they are on.
I don't know what is so hard to understand about that!

From what I've heard from Villa sources there was a pretty reasonable chance Villa were going to sign Rashford if they made the Champions League, but without it they just don't have the finances.

 

[Zumbi]

I'm sorry but that's not the argument you made at all, and even then it would still be disingenuous because as pointed out, centerbacks and attacking midfielders are entirely different roles and walking means entirely different things in those roles.

I'm sorry you dislike being called out on this, but I stand by my criticism and nothing you've said since suggests it was in any way unfounded and I'm completely happy for everyone else to judge whether I've been fair in my criticism based on what I've already posted.

In every single post I specifically referred to Cunha’s defensive metrics versus his peers. That was the very crux of my argument.

You have tried desperately to twist that, because you seem intent on arguing with me and trying to insult me, despite apparently agreeing with my broader point about Cunha’s defensive work being fine.

It’s fecking weird dude. Give it a rest.

 

[Dion]

In every single post I specifically referred to Cunha’s defensive metrics versus his peers. That was the very crux of my argument.

You have tried desperately to twist that, because you seem intent on arguing with me and trying to insult me, despite apparently agreeing with my broader point about Cunha’s defensive work being fine.

It’s fecking weird dude. Give it a rest.

I'm sorry, but we've been through this and I'm more than happy with the arguments I've made on this matter.

Although I absolutely haven't insulted you at any point, and I think that's quite bad faith to suggest otherwise. Criticism of your argument is not an insult, but I'm more than happy for the mods to make the assessment if you'd rather. But I can assure you it's nothing personal, it was simply an incredibly egregious case of disingenuousness which deserved to be called out.

 

[Zumbi]

I'm sorry, but we've been through this and I'm more than happy with the arguments I've made on this matter.

Although I absolutely haven't insulted you at any point, and I think that's quite bad faith to suggest otherwise. Criticism of your argument is not an insult, but I'm more than happy for the mods to make the assessment if you'd rather. But I can assure you it's nothing personal, it was simply an incredibly egregious case of disingenuousness which deserved to be called out.

I don’t know if someone’s pissed on your spreadsheets today or what, but your tone has come across as weirdly aggressive and accusatory.

Repeatedly accusing me of being disingenuous for comparing a forwards stats with a defenders stats, when the entire time in every post from the outset I was very specifically and very clearly comparing that forward’s defensive stats to his peers, is itself, entirely disingenuous.